Support NeoGAF

[Jeronimo Jones]

Price will be more important than many of you think it will be.

I thought the reveal was an interesting concept, but I was likely never going to preorder it.

Many Nintendo fans and some enthusiasts will be all in, but the wider public's response isn't guaranteed.

 

[Soroc]

From Morgan Stanley:

The potential for a more convenient hybrid-style console is consistent with what the market was expecting, and it was difficult to confirm through the trailer what, if any, the new hardware innovations were. The list of other supporting software companies does provide some reassurance. But to truly evaluate the console still we need to confirm a) hardware pricing, b) the in-house/3rd party title lineup, and c) details on network functions/performance in the event that the unit is played on the go (including how it is co-played among household users).

From BGC Partners:

In an era of smart devices where you can play games anywhere, I don’t think conceptually it is evolutionary enough. The fact you can plug it in at home and take it away and play, so what? We were expecting a little bit more of Nintendo magic sprinkled, and I didn’t see it. The market is right about selling it off.

From Mizuho:

The trailer does not show the device being played in interesting new ways, gameplay looks to be surprisingly similar to gaming with any number of other consoles.

From SMBC Nikko:

The games should go down well with traditional Nintendo fans but there were no games shown that seemed to break new ground.

Sad that the success of the Wii is also Nintendos biggest failure. They can't get out of their own way anymore. Almost all of these quotes would be applicable if Nintendo made a PS4 clone. Damned if they do, damned if they don't.

 

[Fox Mulder]

Price will be more important than many of you think it is.

I thought the reveal was an interesting concept, but I was likely never going to preorder it.

Many Nintendo fans and some enthusiasts will be all in, but the wider public'a response isn't guaranteed.

Price absolutely will be important. The wiiu launched at $300/350 right before the xb1 and ps4. Now the Switch is launching while both are under $300.

This has to be like $250 at most.

 

[Toxi]

It always happens. It had nothing to do with mobile games, so it went down.

But a problem I still see even in Toto's quote, is the idea that Switch is competing with PS4.

If Nintendo wanted to compete with PS4, they would've made a PS4, money hatted a few games and have it out this year (which they originally intended with the Switch). But instead are releasing in March 2017, a hybrid of handheld and console gaming which aim is to merge both of their development platforms so not only they spend less time and resources making games, but also get the support one platform got that the other lacked.

Yet, there's still this obsession around them competing with PS4. But under that line of thought, the PS4 would also compete with the hundred of million iOs devices and even the 75 million 3DS userbase. And that line is barely even brought around when it comes to the success of PS4.

Not that pricing shouldn't take in consideration the others, but the price of Switch will be the result of stuff like 3DS underperforming at first and a Wii U that never took off, more than to compete with the PS4.

60 million actually.

 

[Drensch]

It's called profit taking.

 

[Soroc]

It's called profit taking.

maybe the 3.3% of the stock drop was, but looking at those financial partners quotes, there does seem to be a heavy amount of skepticism in Nintendo products these days.

 

[robotrock]

I said multiple places

249-299 for screen and joy cons and 349 - 399 for game, docking station, screen, joy con controllers

Can't see this happening, they're marketing this as a home console first. Every SKU must come with the dock.

 

[orthodoxy1095]

Nintendo fans diehard enough to suffer through a third paradigm continuity break.

Well obviously, but who else

 

[Sectorseven]

From Mizuho:

The trailer does not show the device being played in interesting new ways, gameplay looks to be surprisingly similar to gaming with any number of other consoles.

This is being polite. Playing virtual basketball on an actual basketball court is not only uninteresting, it's almost cynical.

 

[Shadowheart]

Quartz‘s John McDuling points out, “buy the rumor, sell the news” is an old mantra on Wall Street.
https://www.wired.com/2014/10/making-money-tech-stocks-doesnt-depend-good-new-product/

This is news to me.

 

[Voysa Reezun]

$299 is too much? People have got some crazy expectations.

I don't think that's crazy. This isn't bleeding edge tech and the other competitors, who will have more games and have visuals that look as good or better than the Switch, are offering bundles for 249-279 regularly.

Nintendo is crazy if they think that they can sell this in the U.S. or Europe for 299. Most consumers don't value Nintendo's hardware OR software in that way.

I think 249 is a stretch for this device from what we know about it, and that it really should be 199-229 if it's going to have any sort of impact anywhere but Japan.

 

[Sadist]

Sony and MS stock dropped as well when the PS4/Xbox One were announced

 

[SmokedMeat]

March isn't a good time to be launching a new console either. It's a shame they missed the holidays.

 

[DVCY201]

Tons of people on GAF wanted a straight console, and Nintendo seems to have delivered on that, just with a different version of Remote Play. But then investors want unique gimmicks? Who do I believe now?

Spoiler

I think the Switch looks cool, I'll let Nintendo handle their finances

 

[orthodoxy1095]

No, it's based off the information given. Investors were looking for two things mainly: pricing, which Nintendo was mum about, and fresh concepts from both a hardware and software end, which the trailer didn't dedicate enough time to (probably because it was short as hell). If Nintendo locked those two things down, the sentiment would be a lot more positive.

From Morgan Stanley:



From BGC Partners:



From Mizuho:



From SMBC Nikko:

It's interesting to compare these statements to other product reveals. Like Apple product reveals which typically are followed by a stock drop. The analyst outlook there is still usually optimistic and satisfied with the showing. In this case analysts don't seem to have that same enthusiasm, and it definitely seems related to info being lacking.

Tons of people on GAF wanted a straight console, and Nintendo seems to have delivered on that, just with a different version of Remote Play. But then investors want unique gimmicks? Who do I believe now?

Spoiler

I think the Switch looks cool, I'll let Nintendo handle their finances

Investors aren't necessarily demanding gimmicks, they're trying to understand where the console fits in the market, which is a perfectly viable line of questioning.

 

[Soroc]

This is being polite. Playing virtual basketball on an actual basketball court is not only uninteresting, it's almost cynical.

funny you mentioned that part, that was one of the only parts of the trailer where I was like... really??

 

[StreetsAhead]

I feel like the mainstream doesn't require that much time to get ready for a new product. 2-3 months should be enough, after Nintendo does a full blowout. You have to get them while mindshare and buzz are high and impulse purchases are likely. You have to capitalize on what's trending, immediately. Heck, a couple of months may be TOO MUCH time. That may sound crazy but again, I'm not talking about the hardcore fanbase, but the mainstream. Nintendo knows their dedicated fanbase will participate, so they'll cater to the more fickle audience first and foremost.

It's the second half of October now, coming into holiday present-buying season. With the Switch not launching until March, I can see them thinking they don't want to peak hype too early. Having people go looking for it this holiday and being told no is potentially lost impulse purchases.

Especially with the March launch, I can possibly see them thinking it's a good idea to have short, post-holiday hype-cycle pre-release to encourage more purchases at what is usually a fairly slow time of the year.

I mean, an October tease and a March launch is bizarre (unprecedented?) so it's hard for me to understand a lot of the rationale here.

 

[LegendofLex]

Translation: We don't see how this will be affordable, and we don't see games/experiences that will attract anyone but diehard Nintendo fans.

Both are valid concerns based on what we know right now.

 

[Sectorseven]

Tons of people on GAF wanted a straight console, and Nintendo seems to have delivered on that, just with a different version of Remote Play. But then investors want unique gimmicks? Who do I believe now?

Spoiler

I think the Switch looks cool, I'll let Nintendo handle their finances

People don't know what they want until they see it. Now that they've seen it, do they want it? It doesn't seem very clear cut now that the anticipation high is coming down.

 

[random25]

maybe the 3.3% of the stock drop was, but looking at those financial partners quotes, there does seem to be a heavy amount of skepticism in Nintendo products these days.

Don't really take them too seriously. Video game market is pretty volatile, and their opinions on things are pretty volatile too.

 

[BadWolf]

Almost all of these quotes would be applicable if Nintendo made a PS4 clone. Damned if they do, damned if they don't.

To be fair when it comes to actual games there wasn't much 'new' shown, nor was there anything to the hardware that indicated there would be anything like that.

Sure, the console has the option to be taken on the go but what is there that is innovative beyond that? As a gaming machine at its core it's pretty much a weaker PS4. There is no unique control scheme, no 'gimmick' that will set its games apart.

Even if it has touch capability then it won't be taken seriously since the games need to function fully without touch in console mode.

 

[Voysa Reezun]

I would also argue that Nintendo's issue is that they preserve high software prices, but then also try to sell their hardware at a comparable price to Sony and Microsoft. Their strategy should be to sell their hardware cheaply, even at a bit of a loss, so that they can make all that back and more by selling 10, 20, 30, 40 million copies of the eight or nine first party games that they have that can push numbers like that - and all at sixty bucks apiece.

Nintendo's barrier to entry in terms of their hardware pricing makes no sense. Either the console should be cheap, or the games should be cheap. Can't have it both ways. Sony and Microsoft have consoles where you can get sixty dollar games for fifteen dollars in months. Nintendo doesn't. What's the argument for buying their console if the hardware is also too expensive?

 

[foltzie1]

Buy on the hype (announcement of a trailer)

Sell on the news (release of the trailer)

This isn't new.


Nintendo's stock won't have sustained movement related to the NX until either first day or pre sales numbers are available, or announcements of 3rd parties backing off releases.

 

[Rolf NB]

Well obviously, but who else

Rich people.

Not-so-rich people who want to open their message board contributions with "I have all consoles".

 

[AGITΩ]

Honestly, if it aint mobile, shares won't climb. Investors only care about mobile.
I would say, the messaging came across clear for the average customer. Ive randomly played the trailer throughout my Home Theater department at best buy, and got a lot of positive feedback from both employees who fell out of nintendo and customers.
Point us, start mass media advertising now. Build that hype, plant the seed in the heads of customers with teasers on tv.

 

[orthodoxy1095]

Rich people.

Not-so-rich people who want to open their message board contributions with "I have all consoles".

Oh good I'm in the target audience.

 

[Skittzo0413]

Translation: We don't see how this will be affordable, and we don't see games/experiences that will attract anyone but diehard Nintendo fans.

Both are valid concerns based on what we know right now.

An announcement of $200 base price would send the stock skyrocketing then.

I've been saying $200 for a while but I'm starting to feel less confident. I think $250 is the highest they can go, though it might launch for something closer to $225.


Also I guess the games might be a valid concern, but the point of that video clearly wasn't games. I'm actually less concerned about the amount and variety of games after the video than I was before.

 

[DVCY201]

Investors aren't necessarily demanding gimmicks, they're trying to understand where the console fits in the market, which is a perfectly viable line of questioning.

3 investor statements relate to 'Nintendo Magic', unique ways to play, and groundbreaking games. Those are not pertinent to the question of where this console lies in the market.

But your statement is perfectly fit.

 

[Helznicht]

March isn't a good time to be launching a new console either. It's a shame they missed the holidays.

Yep, this should have been ready for xmas.

 

[antibolo]

Investors will only be satisfied once Nintendo is only doing shitty f2p trash on phones and nothing else. Fuck them.

 

[j-wood]

I would venture to say that they are "withholding surprises" because they themselves don't know how well the features will work yet, and it's still being tested/implemented.

Basically it's the inverse of what we see in this industry, like when a game trailer is shown for the first time, but it's release is downgraded because they realized they couldn't do that.

 

[Velkyn]

Some investors blamed a lack of surprise in the announcement for the lukewarm market response, saying the company raised high expectations by withholding details about the hardware for more than a year.

This is kind of what I was getting at with my thread before people attacked it. Withholding stuff the way that they are is going to cause the mainstream/casual crowd to lose interest. Not everyone follows this kind of stuff the way we do. The public will see news about a new Nintendo, see March, no other details, and promptly forget about it. The media buzz won't be as loud for any other reveals, either.

Maybe I was exaggerating by comparing this to a Sega move, but I can definitely see another Gamecube happening.

 

[GSG Flash]

There should've been a proper announcement at a press conference for this thing.

Nintendo's new way of announcing everything through trailers is not the proper way to build excitement.

 

[Septimus Prime]

March isn't a good time to be launching a new console either. It's a shame they missed the holidays.

It's a great time. If it does well, they get a little boost at the end of the fiscal year and start the next year strong, and if it does poorly, they can push the loss to the last fiscal.

 

[Fox Mulder]

Tons of people on GAF wanted a straight console, and Nintendo seems to have delivered on that, just with a different version of Remote Play. But then investors want unique gimmicks? Who do I believe now?

Spoiler

I think the Switch looks cool, I'll let Nintendo handle their finances

It's not really a straight console though. It's a tablet that docks for home use. The design limits power and has to take battery life into account.

I never use portables, so it feels a bit much for me to pay $300+ for only home use really.

 

[Soroc]

To be fair when it comes to actual games there wasn't much 'new' shown, nor was there anything to the hardware that indicated there would be anything like that.

Sure, the console has the option to be taken on the go but what is there that is innovative beyond that? As a gaming machine at its core it's pretty much a weaker PS4. There is no unique control scheme, no 'gimmick' that will set its games apart.

Even if it has touch capability then it won't be taken seriously since the games need to function fully without touch in console mode.

I do think part of the problem with Nintendo is their damaged psyche. They were so focused on a small reveal to make sure the message of the home console system on the go was the only thing communicated to the detriment of a full reveal due to their mistakes with the Wii U. So now we get a super slow and methodical information drip that isn't satisfying anyone. Including myself, because my interest is piqued but I have many more questions still.. and some of them are excruciatingly simple questions that should have followed in a PR FAQ.

 

[bachikarn]

This is kind of what I was getting at with my thread before people attacked it.Withholding stuff the way that they're doing is going to cause the mainstream/casual crowd to lose interest. Not everyone follows this kind of stuff the way we do. The public will see news about a new Nintendo, see March, no other details, and promptly forget about it. The media buzz won't be as loud for any other reveals, either.

Maybe I was exaggerating by comparing this to a Sega move, but I can definitely see another Gamecube happening.

Nintendo hasn't shown much evidence they can market well. They did do an excellent job with the Wii, but that thing sold itself and was very easy to understand.

 

[orthodoxy1095]

3 investor statements relate to 'Nintendo Magic', unique ways to play, and groundbreaking games. Those are not pertinent to the question of where this console lies in the market.

But your statement is perfectly fit.

I think the "Magic" is probably still a question of audience and marketshare though. Say you take the Wii or DS for example. With those two consoles you have these new groundbreaking input methods paired with fresh games to go along with them. I don't know if those systems were necessarily 100% obvious slam dunks, but they clearly had something new to offer the market and therefore an audience, if only based on novelty.

With the Switch, I think it's a similar question. Without pricing details and more hardware info, it's really unclear what the device offers to ingratiate itself to the general public. Not as powerful but by how much? Is it therefore cheaper than other consoles on the market? What's so good about the portability compared to phones/tablets? No input method to differentiate itself? No new games to show that look particularly fresh or widely appealing? It's a tough spot.

 

[Principate]

To be fair when it comes to actual games there wasn't much 'new' shown, nor was there anything to the hardware that indicated there would be anything like that.

Sure, the console has the option to be taken on the go but what is there that is innovative beyond that? As a gaming machine at its core it's pretty much a weaker PS4. There is no unique control scheme, no 'gimmick' that will set its games apart.

Even if it has touch capability then it won't be taken seriously since the games need to function fully without touch in console mode.

TBF, I don't think it was designed with any of those in mind. It's main purpose and I believe what Nintendo's will use with it's marketing is combining their handheld and home console development studio's to produce content for the device at a comparatively rapid rate. it would be deeply silly (so I guess not out of the question) for Nintendo to rely on a "gimmick" like this so close conceptually to the failed wii u in concept and something for which there's a dozen similar devices already on the market. I think the ultimate goal is more essentially the PS4 of handheld devices consolidating everything under a powerful handheld with the dock and console output to make it more palatable to western audiences. Which is why the rest of the information about this console is key.

 

[Biske]

Investors are stupid. Probably just butt hurt about Pokemon go.


Nothing worse than catering to jackass investors

 

[Neoxon]

There should've been a proper announcement at a press conference for this thing.

Nintendo's new way of announcing everything through trailers is not the proper way to build excitement.

But it worked. Everyone knows about the Switch now, & it's still trending like crazy on social media.

 

[thefro]

There should've been a proper announcement at a press conference for this thing.

Nintendo's new way of announcing everything through trailers is not the proper way to build excitement.

The youtube view counts, Switch trending #1 on Twitter, #1 on Facebook, top of the main page on Reddit all point to the reveal being well-executed.

 

[Kusagari]

Let's be honest, outside of Saturn fuckery this is one of the worst ways you could possibly unveil a new console.

 

[wowbaggerBR]

Smart money.

 

[Velkyn]

But it worked. Everyone knows about the Switch now, & it's still trending like crazy on social media.

For now. Social media buzz doesn't directly correlate to sales, and I think plenty of people feel burned by Wii U.

 

[Spyder_Monkey]

Honestly if I was an investor in Nintendo I'd be selling stock too after the Switch unveil. Nintendo did not stick the landing in that unveiling, and did not convince me they understand why Wii U failed. I hope in the coming months Nintendo can address concerns with more reveals. But I'm just not sure the concept is gonna set any market on fire as it stands. I hope those added surprises are big ones.

It's over, period. Nntendo lost their last ace, and that's the end of their Switch hopes and dreams.

It's not hyperbole, it's not fanboy drivel. It is LITERALLY it for Switch. Nintendo has nothing left, nothing they can reveal tomorrow would fix the hole now created. There is no reason left for any one, hardcore or casual, to substantively invest in Nintendo. Except if they want to play Zelda. Which will also come to mobile at some point.

The age of Nintendo is done.

 

[Mael]

But it worked. Everyone knows about the Switch now, & it's still trending like crazy on social media.

Let's be honest, outside of Saturn fuckery this is one of the worst ways you could possibly unveil a new console.

neogaf.gif

 

[TSM]

They are right to be skeptical. Nintendo basically took a Wii U and eliminated everything but the gamepad. That seems like an extremely shaky starting point considering how the Wii U shook out. It's too large to casually carry with you on the go, and it's not doing anything the Wii U wasn't already capable of at home.

 

[Velkyn]

Let's be honest, outside of Saturn fuckery this is one of the worst ways you could possibly unveil a new console.

100% agree, but try to say that and the Nintendo defense force jumps down your throat.

 

[LegendofLex]

An announcement of $200 base price would send the stock skyrocketing then.

This isn't how it works.