Firget outselling the originals, they can't match sales of the other handheld ports even. Mainline DQ on mobile has been a complete bust.
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Yuji Horii: Dragon Quest 11 will be an offline game, for home consoles
- Thread starter Aeana
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Maybe I'm not thinking this through, but my immediate thoughts are:
SE announced DQ9 for DS in 2006. Then they announced DQ10 for Wii in 2008 (I know there's a Wii U version too, and PC, etc). 2006-2008, this was at a time when DS and Wii were probably at or around the height of their success.
Times have changed. 3DS has done well, yet nowhere near as well as the original DS family (and DQ11 is for consoles anyway) And the Wii name has gone to shit. 'Nuff said.
Since that time, the PS3 rebounded from its early years, reaching more or less the same level of success as Xbox 360.
The PS4 is the dominating console in the western world.
It simply makes sense for DQ11 to be made for PS3 and PS4. Especially for PS3 in Japan and PS4 in the west. But it would not be as if SE wouldn't release a PS4 version in Japan and a PS3 version in the west. DQ11 should be released globally on PS3 and PS4.
SE announced DQ9 for DS in 2006. Then they announced DQ10 for Wii in 2008 (I know there's a Wii U version too, and PC, etc). 2006-2008, this was at a time when DS and Wii were probably at or around the height of their success.
Times have changed. 3DS has done well, yet nowhere near as well as the original DS family (and DQ11 is for consoles anyway) And the Wii name has gone to shit. 'Nuff said.
Since that time, the PS3 rebounded from its early years, reaching more or less the same level of success as Xbox 360.
The PS4 is the dominating console in the western world.
It simply makes sense for DQ11 to be made for PS3 and PS4. Especially for PS3 in Japan and PS4 in the west. But it would not be as if SE wouldn't release a PS4 version in Japan and a PS3 version in the west. DQ11 should be released globally on PS3 and PS4.
sörine;170982197 said:Firget outselling the originals, they can't match sales of the other handheld ports even. Mainline DQ on mobile has been a complete bust.
What were the sales on mobile? So they are ports of ports. How much were they expecting to sell then they couldn't of had high expectations. Seems like they put them out to get more experience with mobile to get the market ready for DQ11.
Oh you meant PS3 AND PS4? I thought you were speaking of only PS4, lol.
Two million over both MIGHT be possible but the regression in software sales on the PS3 is not slowing down, and every new cross-title we see it slip ever further down the list and its software sales get ever weaker. By 2016 I don't know how much blood is going to left in those veins to tap. By the time DQXI, if its in 2016, launches 1 million might be the actual end result...
.
You're crazy if you think DQ 11 will sell only 2 million lifetime on both the PS4 and PS3 in Japan. That is way too conservative.
Im thinking 3 million in Japan on both platforms and an additional 1 million worldwide outside of Japan. 3 million is easily achieved with bundling and a $100 price cut for the PS4.
4 Million is good for S-E , considering it will boost other S-E game sales on the PS4 as an investment for the future.
Pennywise83
Banned
You're crazy if you think DQ 11 will sell only 2 million lifetime on both the PS4 and PS3 in Japan. That is way too conservative.
Im thinking 3 million in Japan on both platforms and an additional 1 million worldwide outside of Japan. 3 million is easily achieved with bundling and a $100 price cut for the PS4.
4 Million is good for S-E , considering it will boost other S-E game sales on the PS4 as an investment for the future.
I don't really think any of this actually makes sense business-wise.
I don't really think any of this actually makes sense business-wise.
Why?
PumpkinSpice
Banned
Why?
Last few mainline DQ games have been ~4 million in Japan alone. Reducing that to 3 million, even with the slight premium console games run for over handheld, would be a serious waste. Especially when you consider an "HD" game would cost a LOT more than a 3DS game.
Edit: That and selling 3 million home console games in 2015/2016/2017 in Japan seems like a stretch. If it's only released on PS4 they'd be trying to sell more games than there are consoles to play them on.
Sub-100k in most cases on Android in Japan, in the US we're seeing sub-10k numbers even. iOS paid rankings aren't encouraging either. DQVIII and DQI (which was free in Japan with the portal app for the Loto trilogy) seem like the only entries that did at all okay. I'm guessing there's a reason why they halted DQVII's conversion and I doubt it's the "too big" excuse they gave.What were the sales on mobile? So they are ports of ports. How much were they expecting to sell then they couldn't of had high expectations. Seems like they put them out to get more experience with mobile to get the market ready for DQ11.
If they were ever seriously flirting with the idea of a paid traditional DQXI on mobile, their failed experiment here has undoubtedly changed things.
Last few mainline DQ games have been ~4 million in Japan alone. Reducing that to 3 million, even with the slight premium console games run for over handheld, would be a serious waste. Especially when you consider an "HD" game would cost a LOT more than a 3DS game.
Edit: That and selling 3 million home console games in 2015/2016/2017 in Japan seems like a stretch. If it's only released on PS4 they'd be trying to sell more games than there are consoles to play them on.
Igniting and propping up the PS4 sales before the Sqaure-Enix onslaught of games hits is a smart business decision in investing for the future, while sacrificing initial sales of the game.
Plus, I'm sure Sony will offset some of the development and marketing cost to secure DQ11 for the sake of revitilizing PS4 sales in Japan.
Its basically a win win situation for Sony and S-E.
A PS4 exclusive is suicide in Japan. That's why there'll be a PS3 version day one.If the goal is to push console sales in Japan, a PS4 exclusive (along with other version later down the line) makes the most sense.
Jarod McChicken
Member
So, shall we alert Square Enix to shift DQ XI on 3DS before it's too late ?
After DQ IX on DS and a strange japanese-exclusive online DQ X, we may witness a full-blown ambitious RPG that could have the same impact DQ VIII did back on PS2. Curiously, I'm not so worried about Square Enix selling 3 or 4 million DQ XI worldwide instead of 5 or 6 million. In terms of easy money, I think they already capitalized enough with DQ VII and DQ VIII on 3DS. And mobile.
After DQ IX on DS and a strange japanese-exclusive online DQ X, we may witness a full-blown ambitious RPG that could have the same impact DQ VIII did back on PS2. Curiously, I'm not so worried about Square Enix selling 3 or 4 million DQ XI worldwide instead of 5 or 6 million. In terms of easy money, I think they already capitalized enough with DQ VII and DQ VIII on 3DS. And mobile.
sörine;170985725 said:A PS4 exclusive is suicide in Japan. That's why there'll be a PS3 version day one.
Well, it's what Square-Enix and Sony seem to be aiming for. If your goal is to reinvigorate the home console market in Japan, a PS3 version is counterproductive as it will only maintain the status quo. They can always release a PS3 or NX (assuming there's a handheld version of the hardware) port later on if the PS4 version bombs.
Your Entertainer
Member
PC please.
They want to make a full-fledged console game, so they are targeting the only viable consoles in Japan: PS4, and NX if it sells well. No amount of port-begging is going to change the basic ambition of this project. 3DS users are getting their own Dragon Quest games, and I'm sure they will sell well.
PumpkinSpice
Banned
Igniting and propping up the PS4 sales before the Sqaure-Enix onslaught of games hits is a smart business decision in investing for the future, while sacrificing initial sales of the game.
Plus, I'm sure Sony will offset some of the development and marketing cost to secure DQ11 for the sake of revitilizing PS4 sales in Japan.
Its basically a win win situation for Sony and S-E.
Moneyhatting Dragon Quest would be enormously expensive.
I agree that strategically console games are in a terrible place but I don't think any game releases are going to fix it. Japanese lifestyles just far better agree with playing games on handheld/mobile. Living space being constrained, hours on transit to/from work/school, and busy work/school lives makes home consoles a raw deal.
PS4 isn't viable in Japan, and it probably never will be. Even with Dragon Quest.They want to make a full-fledged console game, so they are targeting the only viable consoles in Japan: PS4, and NX if it sells well. No amount of port-begging is going to change the basic ambition of this project. 3DS users are getting their own Dragon Quest games, and I'm sure they will sell well.
I agree that strategically console games are in a terrible place but I don't think any game releases are going to fix it. Japanese lifestyles just far better agree with playing games on handheld/mobile. Living space being constrained, hours on transit to/from work/school, and busy work/school lives makes home consoles a raw deal.
Can anyone comment on what happened for consoles to contract in Japan after the early 00s? As far as I unerstand, Japanese lifestyles have been hectic since the late 80s, but home consoles always did pretty well. Is it just a matter of mobile devices reaching an acceptable level of tech (doubtful, as a lot of the more popular mobile games are simple match-three derivatives and puzzle games) or is there something else at play?
Can anyone comment on what happened for consoles to contract in Japan after the early 00s? As far as I unerstand, Japanese lifestyles have been hectic since the late 80s, but home consoles always did pretty well. Is it just a matter of mobile devices reaching an acceptable level of tech (doubtful, as a lot of the more popular mobile games are simple match-three derivatives and puzzle games) or is there something else at play?
Consoles were supplanted by handhelds, not mobile.
sörine;170987252 said:PS4 isn't viable in Japan, and it probably never will be. Even with Dragon Quest.
Think about it for a second. If you were S-E, why would you release DQ11 on any other platform other than the PS4 when your mega projects like Final Fantasy XV , Kingdom Heart 3 , Final Fantasy 7 remake , and all the rest of the games like Star Ocean 5, Nier 2 , Hitman , Tomb Raider, Deus Ex, ect.. are releasing on the PS4. Why would you want to fragment the userbase? What alternative do they have if the want to release a console based DQ?
Is DQ coming out tomorrow? Is it not a system seller. Was always under the impression it was a system seller in Japan and one of the biggest properties in the region. Seems that isn't the case. I think to be safe and save SE from themselves we should all send them letters imploring them to release all their games for PC and mobile since they have the largest user bases and lowest development cost.
After we save SE we can then move our efforts to Capcom, Namco and the like and prevent them from throwing their businesses away making games for the Ps4.
After we save SE we can then move our efforts to Capcom, Namco and the like and prevent them from throwing their businesses away making games for the Ps4.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
1. People predicting this is coming to the NX despite knowing full well developers haven't even seen it yet. lol.
2. Someone on the front page asking for concept art, which is funny because DQVIII was essentially a fully-realized vision of everything Toriyama has ever, ever done. Here: https://www.google.com/search?q=dra...YQ_AUoAQ#safe=off&tbm=isch&q=dragon+quest+art
3. I'm really, really excited. I hope it's huge and beautiful and turn-based and has no crafting. Crafting has to be the worst trend in gaming.
2. Someone on the front page asking for concept art, which is funny because DQVIII was essentially a fully-realized vision of everything Toriyama has ever, ever done. Here: https://www.google.com/search?q=dra...YQ_AUoAQ#safe=off&tbm=isch&q=dragon+quest+art
3. I'm really, really excited. I hope it's huge and beautiful and turn-based and has no crafting. Crafting has to be the worst trend in gaming.
PumpkinSpice
Banned
Think about it for a second. If you were S-E, why would you release DQ11 on any other platform other than the PS4 when your mega projects like Final Fantasy XV , Kingdom Heart 3 , Final Fantasy 7 remake , and all the rest of the games like Star Ocean 5, Nier 2 , Hitman , Tomb Raider, Deus Ex, ect.. are releasing on the PS4. Why would you want to fragment the userbase? What alternative do they have if the want to release a console based DQ?
There were a lot of posts like this in 2006 before DQ9 was announced for DS.
Is DQ coming out tomorrow? Is it not a system seller. Was always under the impression it was a system seller in Japan and one of the biggest properties in the region. Seems that isn't the case. I think to be safe and save SE from themselves we should all send them letters imploring them to release all their games for PC and mobile since they have the largest user bases and lowest development cost.
After we save SE we can then move our efforts to Capcom, Namco and the like and prevent them from throwing their businesses away making games for the Ps4.
LOL most, it not all multiform games sell better on consoles than PC. Its not even close. Joke post?
sörine;170987252 said:PS4 isn't viable in Japan, and it probably never will be. Even with Dragon Quest.
I remember reading this kind of things in every Media Create thread the first years of PS3.
PS4 has the greatest chance of all current systems to be viable in Japan with FFXV, VII Remake, and KH3. It still hasn't even had a price drop yet either.sörine;170987252 said:PS4 isn't viable in Japan, and it probably never will be. Even with Dragon Quest.
Maybe I'm not thinking this through, but my immediate thoughts are:
SE announced DQ9 for DS in 2006. Then they announced DQ10 for Wii in 2008 (I know there's a Wii U version too, and PC, etc). 2006-2008, this was at a time when DS and Wii were probably at or around the height of their success.
Times have changed. 3DS has done well, yet nowhere near as well as the original DS family (and DQ11 is for consoles anyway) And the Wii name has gone to shit. 'Nuff said.
Since that time, the PS3 rebounded from its early years, reaching more or less the same level of success as Xbox 360.
The PS4 is the dominating console in the western world.
It simply makes sense for DQ11 to be made for PS3 and PS4. Especially for PS3 in Japan and PS4 in the west. But it would not be as if SE wouldn't release a PS4 version in Japan and a PS3 version in the west. DQ11 should be released globally on PS3 and PS4.
Following that logic, the 3DS would be the console it would be made for. The 3DS has a user base of 52 million. The PS4 has 22 million users, so it would be made for the 3DS. Yet, I still think this is coming out for the PS4 and maybe it'll have a port for NX.
If I were SE and it was coming out in the next 1-2 years in Japan I'd probably release DQXI on the only viable traditional platform in Japan; 3DS. It's not my job to sell PS4s for Sony.Think about it for a second. If you were S-E, why would you release DQ11 on any other platform other than the PS4 when your mega projects like Final Fantasy XV , Kingdom Heart 3 , Final Fantasy 7 remake , and all the rest of the games like Star Ocean 5, Nier 2 , Hitman , Tomb Raider, Deus Ex, ect.. are releasing on the PS4. Why would you want to fragment the userbase? What alternative do they have if the want to release a console based DQ?
Or else I'd rework it into a f2p mobile cash cow.
It's not even going to match PS3 though, and that system was hardly a rousing success at home. FFXIII was PS3's big hope and that game couldn't even break 2 million.I remember reading this kind of things in every Media Create thread the first years of PS3.
The greatest chance is still almost no chance though. And 3DS is already more than viable.PS4 has the greatest chance of all current systems to be viable in Japan with FFXV, VII Remake, and KH3. It still hasn't even had a price drop yet either.
You're crazy if you think DQ 11 will sell only 2 million lifetime on both the PS4 and PS3 in Japan. That is way too conservative.
Im thinking 3 million in Japan on both platforms and an additional 1 million worldwide outside of Japan. 3 million is easily achieved with bundling and a $100 price cut for the PS4.
4 Million is good for S-E , considering it will boost other S-E game sales on the PS4 as an investment for the future.
It really isn't. Considering DQIX sold over 5 million WW with a drastically lower budget than a HD game, SE of all companies would consider 4 million (if they even hit that, this isn't selling over a million outside of Japan) a failure on TWO platforms.
After we save SE we can then move our efforts to Capcom, Namco and the like and prevent them from throwing their businesses away making games for the Ps4.
Capcom is still putting Monster Hunter on the 3DS and they actually have very few big budget projects in the works.
1. People predicting this is coming to the NX despite knowing full well developers haven't even seen it yet. lol.
2. Someone on the front page asking for concept art, which is funny because DQVIII was essentially a fully-realized vision of everything Toriyama has ever, ever done. Here: https://www.google.com/search?q=dra...YQ_AUoAQ#safe=off&tbm=isch&q=dragon+quest+art
3. I'm really, really excited. I hope it's huge and beautiful and turn-based and has no crafting. Crafting has to be the worst trend in gaming.
The bolded isn't true. Devs might not have seen the actual device but they know its specs and Square Enix are probably one of the first third parties to get a look in(after Bamco, Capcom, Level 5 and Koei Tecmo of course). EDIT: I don't think DQXI will on NX though.
Right, most of us believe that it's all but confirmed for PS4, because it's entirely up to Mr. Horii where it goes. If it were up to SE, it'd probably be 3DS.Following that logic, the 3DS would be the console it would be made for. The 3DS has a user base of 52 million. The PS4 has 22 million users, so it would be made for the 3DS. Yet, I still think this is coming out for the PS4 and maybe it'll have a port for NX.
It really isn't. Considering DQIX sold over 5 million WW with a drastically lower budget than a HD game, SE of all companies would consider 4 million a failure on TWO platforms.
DQ9 was released in 2009. The market isn't the same anymore. DQ11 won't sell 5 million on any platform.
But yeah let's set expectations that we know can't be met so we can point out the failure and pretend we're prophets.
It'll most likely be a multiplatform game, but I kinda wish it would be PS4 exclusive. Just because it could help to make at least one home console still a little success in japan.
PS4 would have FFXV, FFVII:R, DQXI, KH3, MGSV, RE7 exclusive + all of its small, mid and unknown stuff. If that wouldn't sell the console then the home console market is really dead there.
A multiplatform DQ XI is still a help of course, but PS3 and/or a nintendo console would steal a lot of momentum obviously.
PS4 would have FFXV, FFVII:R, DQXI, KH3, MGSV, RE7 exclusive + all of its small, mid and unknown stuff. If that wouldn't sell the console then the home console market is really dead there.
A multiplatform DQ XI is still a help of course, but PS3 and/or a nintendo console would steal a lot of momentum obviously.
Pennywise83
Banned
DQ9 was released in 2009. The market isn't the same anymore. DQ11 won't sell 5 million on any platform.
But yeah let's set expectations that we know can't be met so we can point out the failure and pretend we're prophets.
With Pokémon, Animal Crossing and Monster Hunter selling 4m+ on 3DS, I can totally see Dragon Quest reaching the same level of sales there. Multi-million sellers are not a problem for 3DS.
It'll most likely be a multiplatform game, but I kinda wish it would be PS4 exclusive. Just because it could help to make at least one home console still a little success in japan.
PS4 would have FFXV, FFVII:R, DQXI, KH3, MGSV, RE7 exclusive + all of its small, mid and unknown stuff. If that wouldn't sell the console then the home console market is really dead there.
A multiplatform DQ XI is still a help of course, but PS3 and/or a nintendo console would steal a lot of momentum obviously.
Spoiler:
The console market is really dead there.
3DS games can still sell 5m. Even in Japan alone they do 4m for top titles.DQ9 was released in 2009. The market isn't the same anymore. DQ11 won't sell 5 million on any platform.
But yeah let's set exceptions that we know can't be met so we can point out the failure and pretend we're prophets.
The remakes on 3DS are selling in line with the DS remakes too.
It really isn't. Considering DQIX sold over 5 million WW with a drastically lower budget than a HD game, SE of all companies would consider 4 million (if they even hit that, this isn't selling over a million outside of Japan) a failure on TWO platforms.
If you looked at 4 million sales in a vacuum , then yes I agree its an absolute failure.
But you missed the part where 4 million sales + sales boost of future S-E titles on the PS4 due to the Dragon Quest boost increase of PS4 unit sales in Japan.
Look at the bigger picture here, not just the initial 4 million DQ11 sales.
Consoles were supplanted by handhelds, not mobile.
This sorta makes sense, but then you look at the sales numbers and see how the 3DS and Vita combined will have a tough time surpassing the PS2+GC install base, and that's without even throwing the GBA into the mix. It seems like traditional gaming is on the decline in Japan in general.
Capcom is still putting Monster Hunter on the 3DS and they actually have very few big budget projects in the works.
The bolded isn't true. Devs might not have seen the actual device but they know its specs and Square Enix are probably one of the first third parties to get a look in(after Bamco, Capcom, Level 5 and Koei Tecmo of course). EDIT: I don't think DQXI will on NX though.
But what of SFV and DDO and possibly RE7. We have already failed them in allowing them to develop a game on the Ps4. I'm sure all their 3DS releases are multimillion sellers right just like MH which wasn't a success until moving to 3DS. Now imagine how successful they could be if they put all their games on mobile and PC. Why waste time on a stop gap like the 3DS when they can move straight to the most popular platforms PC and mobile. Got to follow the userbase if you want to survive.
This sorta makes sense, but then you look at the sales numbers and see how the 3DS and Vita combined will have a tough time surpassing the PS2+GC install base, and that's without even throwing the GBA into the mix. It seems like traditional gaming is on the decline in Japan in general.
thats because at the same time mobile gaming is replacing handhelds.
This sorta makes sense, but then you look at the sales numbers and see how the 3DS and Vita combined will have a tough time surpassing the PS2+GC install base, and that's without even throwing the GBA into the mix. It seems like traditional gaming is on the decline in Japan in general.
Oh, it totally is. But 3DS is going to only be behind DS(and PS2?) by the end of its run.
But what of SFV and DDO and possibly RE7. We have already failed them in allowing them to develop a game on the Ps4. I'm sure all their 3DS releases are multimillion sellers right just like MH which wasn't a success until moving to 3DS. Now imagine how successful they could be if they put all their games on mobile and PC. Why waste time on a stop gap like the 3DS when they can move straight to the most popular platforms PC and mobile. Got to follow the userbase if you want to survive.
I honestly have no clue what you're on about.
In Japan? No they won't, 3DS is tracking ahead of PS2, Vita is tracking ahead of GC. GBA is a problem though, PS4+Wii U+One combined won't even hit half it's sales.This sorta makes sense, but then you look at the sales numbers and see how the 3DS and Vita combined will have a tough time surpassing the PS2+GC install base, and that's without even throwing the GBA into the mix. It seems like traditional gaming is on the decline in Japan in general.
Oh, it totally is. But 3DS is going to only be behind DS(and PS2?) by the end of its run.
I honestly have no clue what you're on about.
Just here talking business like the rest of you. Just trying to propose what's best for business. All games should be on mobile and PC. I own a PC, tablet and phone so I'm covered and don't need to buy any hardware I don't like. Plus it's the logical business plan for SE. Being able to cast my phone screen to the TV has changed my outlook on mobile gaming so I'm being selfish a bit. So I'm going to present arguments that make sense for my system of choice to get the game.
KoopaTheCasual
Junior Member
Well, uh... you can rest easy, I guess? Because PC is not even in this discussion as a viable Japan platform. Less so than the PS4 or Wii U.I don't own a PC, nor have I any intentions of owning one within the next few years. I recognize that this makes me an anomaly, but whatever the cause, I'd definitely prefer that a substantial number of the games I'm interested in continue hitting PS4, 3DS, et al.
ArkhamFantasy
Member
Not to mention sonys contributions.If you looked at 4 million sales in a vacuum , then yes I agree its an absolute failure.
But you missed the part where 4 million sales + sales boost of future S-E titles on the PS4 due to the Dragon Quest boost increase of PS4 unit sales in Japan.
Look at the bigger picture here, not just the initial 4 million DQ11 sales.
Well, uh... you can rest easy, I guess? Because PC is not even in this discussion as a viable Japan platform. Less so than the PS4 or Wii U.
Huh, but I keep hearing about how the Japanese devs are porting loads of games to Steam lately. Which is obviously great for PC gamers and I wish 'em the best and all, but I'd perceived that to suggest a potential shift to PC on new content at some point. Guess not?
KillerMan91
Member
Oh, it totally is. But 3DS is going to only be behind DS(and PS2?) by the end of its run.
It will sell more than PS2 in Japan. Less than GB though if you include GBC to totals of GB.
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