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[sense]

I've expressed my argument in this thread many times before. It isn't just a simple case of, 'Well, 3DS has the highest install base in Japan so that's the only platform that makes sense'.

Sure, it makes sense for the game to be on there, but PS3/PS4 is just as viable given the direction Square Enix seems to be going. The way I see it, the console market in Japan needs a jolt, and Square Enix seems to be spearheading this with the amount of support they're giving the PS4.

Whether this works or not is another story, but you don't get results unless you try. Secondly, Dragon Quest releases in the west are far too inconsistent for anyone to draw any sort of conclusion was to its sales pattern overseas. Hell, Dragon Quest VII didn't even release in Europe.

If Square Enix wants to start looking globally, and at the same time try and keep the console market afloat in Japan then PS3/PS4 is the choice that makes sense. The handheld market, even where its doing best, is at huge risk of being no more in the next decade, despite how well the 3DS and Vita are being supported, there's been nothing but decline.

So Japanese developers either have to try and revive the console market or face both traditional sectors crumble while mobile is the only thing left standing. Square Enix has made it clear they're aware of this, and as such, I have no doubts that Dragon Quest XI will form part of their plan.

lol he is going to keep repeating the same things anyways no matter what you say, but but it did not work in the past especially on the ps2 which was a huge jrpg machine! so why are they bothering!

i don't think he subscribes to the idea of testing the market every so often. if you failed a decade ago then don't even bother trying again!

i mean it is very clear square is trying to give home consoles one big push and I am very happy they are trying. Can't wait to play a very good looking dragon quest game on a home console. haven't played a single dragon quest game and it is already my most anticipated game as I love turn based strategy games.

 

[Glass Rebel]

With a controller?

sorta

 

[Newtype-001]

sorta

Doesnt make much sense to use a 3ds as a controller on a 3ds.

 

[AmuroChan]

I'd be genuinely surprised (and disappointed) if XI doesn't release in Japan in 2016 in time for the anniversary.

I wouldn't be shocked either way. Unless this game has been in development for years, 2016 seems like a pipe dream personally. S-E's Japanese studios are not known for their quick dev cycles.

 

[clay_ghost]

I wouldn't be shocked either way. Unless this game has been in development for years, 2016 seems like a pipe dream personally. S-E's Japanese studios are not known for their quick dev cycles.

DQ games are mostly outsourced so its still possible.

 

[Newtype-001]

I wouldn't be shocked either way. Unless this game has been in development for years, 2016 seems like a pipe dream personally. S-E's Japanese studios are not known for their quick dev cycles.

The game was officially told to be in development by horii june 2014. It would have obviously started sometime before that. A late 2016 japan release isnt as far as a pipe dream imo. Most DQ games are outsourced aswell.

 

[Pennywise83]

I've expressed my argument in this thread many times before. It isn't just a simple case of, 'Well, 3DS has the highest install base in Japan so that's the only platform that makes sense'.

Sure, it makes sense for the game to be on there, but PS3/PS4 is just as viable given the direction Square Enix seems to be going. The way I see it, the console market in Japan needs a jolt, and Square Enix seems to be spearheading this with the amount of support they're giving the PS4.

Whether this works or not is another story, but you don't get results unless you try. Secondly, Dragon Quest releases in the west are far too inconsistent for anyone to draw any sort of conclusion was to its sales pattern overseas. Hell, Dragon Quest VII didn't even release in Europe.

If Square Enix wants to start looking globally, and at the same time try and keep the console market afloat in Japan then PS3/PS4 is the choice that makes sense. The handheld market, even where its doing best, is at huge risk of being no more in the next decade, despite how well the 3DS and Vita are being supported, there's been nothing but decline.

So Japanese developers either have to try and revive the console market or face both traditional sectors crumble while mobile is the only thing left standing. Square Enix has made it clear they're aware of this, and as such, I have no doubts that Dragon Quest XI will form part of their plan.

Indeed. It is not that simple. That is why we are debating over which is the smartest business decision. Premise: I am pretty sure SQEX is going to bring DQXI on at least PS4; I just think this is not the best business decision as long as DQXI is a traditional DQ (which also means it follows the traditional business model).

First of all, I do not believe in the fairytale that SQEX is willing to "revitalize" the Japanese home console market. The truth is, SQEX sees PS4 as a viable platform for the genre in terms of Western opportunities, and not internal ones. The big push towards PS4 is clearly aimed at North America and Europe; FF and KH sell much more here than in Japan, and SO and Nier follows the same path (though at a different scale); Project Tetsuna is an answer to the excellent sales BD got on 3DS. DQ? It is not the same; DQ always showed to struggle in the West, though being extremely successful in the internal market. It might be possible that SQEX wants to risk everything and going fully on PS4 with that IP as well; DQ Heroes will be a signal in that direction, thought in my opinion it will sell quite badly.

As for PS3/PS4, remember that: SQEX already ditched PS3 in the West (multiplatform games are PS4-bound here) and that PS3 software sales are winding down in Japan as well; a 2016 / 2017 PS3/PS4 might well be a PS4 exclusive at this point.

DQ received a lot of exposure in the West over the past decade, though. DQVIII was launched with a big marketing campaign, and DQ games saw a nice exposure as well. It is quite clear that DQ is not going to be a best-seller outside Japan, and I do not see how come a company should take a huge risk with its biggest IP for the sake of... saving a dying market?

lol he is going to keep repeating the same things anyways no matter what you say, but but it did not work in the past especially on the ps2 which was a huge jrpg machine! so why are they bothering!

i don't think he subscribes to the idea of testing the market every so often. if you failed a decade ago then don't even bother trying again!

i mean it is very clear square is trying to give home consoles one big push and I am very happy they are trying. Can't wait to play a very good looking dragon quest game on a home console. haven't played a single dragon quest game and it is already my most anticipated game as I love turn based strategy games.

I just do not think DQ will ever have an appeal in Western markets, and past releases clearly showed that this is the case. Home consoles are becoming less and less reliable for what concerns traditional Japanese video games, and this can be easily checked; PS3 has a nice niche of gamers who love Japanese jRPGs but those are doing numbers that are not enough sustainable for SQEX and its second-biggest IP. That is, I cannot see PS4 as a machine for traditional Japanese games, unless they are huge AAA productions such as FFXV or cross-overs in the vein of KHIII. Who bought PS4 in the West did so mainly in light of GTA, CoD, Uncharted and other Western IPs. You will see how DQ Heroes will fare, but don't be surprised if it cannot crack the 100k mark in its first month.

Furthermore, both DQVIII and DQIX sold mildly in the West, not only the former. Both were quite advertised and were on platforms that had a huge jRPG fanbase. If you compare PS2 with what PS4 might actually be in a few years, can you really compare the two userbases? Why should DQ become suddenly huge in the West on home consoles? Just asking.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

First of all, I do not believe in the fairytale that SQEX is willing to "revitalize" the Japanese home console market.

It is in Square Enix's best interest for the console market to stay alive, especially in Japan. It is also in Sonys best interest to fund them/assist them to do so.

Would DQ11 on 3DS be a safer bet? Absolutely. But a console version can still be successful, especially with Playstation helping them.

 

[Pennywise83]

It is in Square Enix's best interest for the console market to stay alive, especially in Japan. It is also in Sonys best interest to fund them/assist them to do so.

Would DQ11 on 3DS be a safer bet? Absolutely. But a console version can still be successful, especially with Playstation helping them.

Of course Sony have some reasons (that is why many of those games came under agreement) ma SQEX is betting on the home console market because of Western countries, not Japan. If they have to bet on a horse in the internal market, that would be mobile.

 

[Rflagg]

Day one I just hope I don't need to buy a need console for this game.

 

[Bitanator]

i mean it is very clear square is trying to give home consoles one big push and I am very happy they are trying. Can't wait to play a very good looking dragon quest game on a home console. haven't played a single dragon quest game and it is already my most anticipated game as I love turn based strategy games.

It is an rpg not a strategy game, there really is not that much to it at all really, basic jrpg combat since its inception. Why don't you play Dragon Quest VIII and V to see if you will even like the new game

 

[KoopaTheCasual]

First of all, I do not believe in the fairytale that SQEX is willing to "revitalize" the Japanese home console market. The truth is, SQEX sees PS4 as a viable platform for the genre in terms of Western opportunities, and not internal ones. The big push towards PS4 is clearly aimed at North America and Europe; FF and KH sell much more here than in Japan, and SO and Nier follows the same path (though at a different scale); Project Tetsuna is an answer to the excellent sales BD got on 3DS. DQ? It is not the same; DQ always showed to struggle in the West, though being extremely successful in the internal market. It might be possible that SQEX wants to risk everything and going fully on PS4 with that IP as well; DQ Heroes will be a signal in that direction, thought in my opinion it will sell quite badly.

Even though SE has explicitly said as much?

The slow uptake of new consoles in Japan seems to be a concern, and Square Enix is making a concerted effort to make sure the PlayStation 4 is more attractive to the audience in its home country. "There's more and more titles being introduced for the platform, and we're hoping that announcing the remake of Final Fantasy 7, it'll give a boost to people wanting to buy this current generation of console.

Source: http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2...tasy-7s-remake-wont-lose-so-much-of-the-crazy

 

[Aeana]

I wouldn't be shocked either way. Unless this game has been in development for years, 2016 seems like a pipe dream personally. S-E's Japanese studios are not known for their quick dev cycles.

Well it's a good thing SE's Japanese studios won't be working on the game, then.

 

[SnowFlakeCake]

Well it's a good thing SE's Japanese studios won't be working on the game, then.

Please don't tell me the talentless fucks at L5 got this gig. :C

Edit - Hang on had a mind fuck there, completely got that wrong.

 

[Pachinko]

I think Dragon Quest XI will actually be attempting to set a new precedent - instead of coming out as 1 console exclusive - they may actually try to release it on multiple devices.

Certainly there are more wii U's in japan than PS4's but that hasn't really translated into software sales if you aren't Nintendo, just like always. So what makes more sense then if you're Square Enix -

Option A - Release DQXI on wii U because you want a home console release that bad but know that hardware sales of that device are pretty much capped worldwide AND that Nintendo will take more of your bottom line than sony ? This approach could potentially lead to 1.5-2.5 million sales in Japan but it will also mean under 500K in other worldwide markets and potentially Nintendo keeping a good portion of those international profits. Potential upside - Nintendo may help localize and release 3DS ports of DQ7,8 internationally to again attempt to make DQ popular outside of asia.

Option B - Release DQXI on PS4 to drive hardware sales upwards which will translate into more sales of other key releases such as FF7R , KH3, FFXV. DQXI itself could potentially sell 1-2 million sales in Japan but it could lead to another 1 million in sales for other properties by increasing hardware sales. As well, internationally DQXI could come out on PS4 AND Xbox 1 where it could sell 1 million +. Also, if , after a few months of availability , the PS4 didn't get the intended hardware boost , a PS3 port could be made on the cheap to sell another 1-2 million copies in Japan.

Option A is playing it safe but will only lock in 3 million copies sold at most , Option B is a bit riskier but could lead to 4-5 million in total sales and potentially lead to 1 million plus additional sales of other products.

I guess it really just comes down to how much Square-Enix likes to gample.

 

[sense]

It is an rpg not a strategy game, there really is not that much to it at all really, basic jrpg combat since its inception. Why don't you play Dragon Quest VIII and V to see if you will even like the new game

i like anything turn based anyways especially jrpgs so i don't really differentiate between srpg and jrpg but yes i will try those other games if they come to ps4 or vita! i might get a tablet soon so I could try those mobile versions if not.

 

[Omnistalgic]

Why doesn't SE just do a Level 5 like development with NiNoKuNi? 3DS version, and upgraded console version.

Makes the $$, everyone happy. And we get to see DQ return to console with amazing visuals.

 

[Oregano]

I think Dragon Quest XI will actually be attempting to set a new precedent - instead of coming out as 1 console exclusive - they may actually try to release it on multiple devices.

Certainly there are more wii U's in japan than PS4's but that hasn't really translated into software sales if you aren't Nintendo, just like always. So what makes more sense then if you're Square Enix -

Option A - Release DQXI on wii U because you want a home console release that bad but know that hardware sales of that device are pretty much capped worldwide AND that Nintendo will take more of your bottom line than sony ? This approach could potentially lead to 1.5-2.5 million sales in Japan but it will also mean under 500K in other worldwide markets and potentially Nintendo keeping a good portion of those international profits. Potential upside - Nintendo may help localize and release 3DS ports of DQ7,8 internationally to again attempt to make DQ popular outside of asia.

Option B - Release DQXI on PS4 to drive hardware sales upwards which will translate into more sales of other key releases such as FF7R , KH3, FFXV. DQXI itself could potentially sell 1-2 million sales in Japan but it could lead to another 1 million in sales for other properties by increasing hardware sales. As well, internationally DQXI could come out on PS4 AND Xbox 1 where it could sell 1 million +. Also, if , after a few months of availability , the PS4 didn't get the intended hardware boost , a PS3 port could be made on the cheap to sell another 1-2 million copies in Japan.

Option A is playing it safe but will only lock in 3 million copies sold at most , Option B is a bit riskier but could lead to 4-5 million in total sales and potentially lead to 1 million plus additional sales of other products.

I guess it really just comes down to how much Square-Enix likes to gample.

Where do people get the bolded from? AFAIK everyone takes a standard 30% for most games and you better believe Nintendo would be willing to lower that for a Wii U exclusive.

 

[PumpkinSpice]

Well it's a good thing SE's Japanese studios won't be working on the game, then.

I'm really curious if it's Level 5 again or if they went with someone else. It would be amazing if it was TOSE, just to see the shitstorm.

 

[Oregano]

I'm really curious if it's Level 5 again or if they went with someone else. It would be amazing if it was TOSE, just to see the shitstorm.

TOSE have made all the Monsters games so whilst it would be a bit of a surprise I don't see why it would be terrible.

 

[yazanov]

Imagine Dragon Quest 11 with Ni No Kuni graphic style, on the PS4 . Oh my lord!!!

 

[theMrCravens]

This will finally make me buy a PS4 (if it is on that console).
Great news.

Still hoping for that DQX at some point.

 

[PumpkinSpice]

TOSE have made all the Monsters games so whilst it would be a bit of a surprise I don't see why it would be terrible.

Yeah neither do I. TOSE's made or contributed to surprisingly large number of my favorite games.

But people would freak out cause they think TOSE is POOP.

 

[Espada]

Sounds like it's going to be a Wii U game with no western port, to be perfectly honest. I'm just glad to hear Dragon Quest is getting a proper home console release, the series deserves it. If SE wants to revive the home console market in Japan, the Wii U is positioned perfectly for that, with sales overseas not being a concern since DQ doesn't sell well beyond their borders.

 

[gtj1092]

Of course Sony have some reasons (that is why many of those games came under agreement) ma SQEX is betting on the home console market because of Western countries, not Japan. If they have to bet on a horse in the internal market, that would be mobile.

Then why do you keep arguing for games to be on the 3DS instead of mobile if you are just looking out for SE business interest?

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

Imagine Dragon Quest 11 with Ni No Kuni graphic style, on the PS4 . Oh my lord!!!

Dragon Quest Heroes on PS4 looks amazing to me, they should go for that IMO.

 

[Glass Rebel]

Doesnt make much sense to use a 3ds as a controller on a 3ds.

a handheld is basically a controller with a console inside of it ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

 

[Bitanator]

i like anything turn based anyways especially jrpgs so i don't really differentiate between srpg and jrpg but yes i will try those other games if they come to ps4 or vita! i might get a tablet soon so I could try those mobile versions if not.

I got you. If you have an iphone you can play them all except 7. I'd recommend III and V, just great games. Dragon Quest 8 on it to me does not look like it would be fun to play having to have the phone in portrait the whole time. But that game is fantastic and will give you a sense of how the next one will be, it is beautiful and an epic rpg worth spending your time on.

 

[Pennywise83]

Even though SE has explicitly said as much?

Source: http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2...tasy-7s-remake-wont-lose-so-much-of-the-crazy

Yes. That was PR. Of course they want people buying PS4 in Japan, otherwise none of their games would sell well (or well enough). The truth is, those games are Western-oriends, and PS4 is selling well in the West.

i like anything turn based anyways especially jrpgs so i don't really differentiate between srpg and jrpg but yes i will try those other games if they come to ps4 or vita! i might get a tablet soon so I could try those mobile versions if not.

Mobile versions are not that great and DQVIII and V will hardly reach PSV and / or PS4.

Then why do you keep arguing for games to be on the 3DS instead of mobile if you are just looking out for SE business interest?

Because if DQXI is a traditional game, 3DS is the best platform right now. Traditional DQ games didn't do hot on mobile.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

Because if DQXI is a traditional game, 3DS is the best platform right now. .

Square Enix is looking at a bigger picture than 1 game.

 

[gtj1092]

Yes. That was PR. Of course they want people buying PS4 in Japan, otherwise none of their games would sell well (or well enough). The truth is, those games are Western-oriends, and PS4 is selling well in the West.



Mobile versions are not that great and DQVIII and V will hardly reach PSV and / or PS4.



Because if DQXI is a traditional game, 3DS is the best platform right now. Traditional DQ games didn't do hot on mobile.

What new DQ game launched on mobile to judge sales? Plus I can attach a blue tooth controller to my phone and cast to my TV. By going for mobile they can still make a traditional game and reach the largest audience. Mobile is the biggest platform in Japan so they should make it for that.

 

[Wagram]

Because if DQXI is a traditional game, 3DS is the best platform right now. Traditional DQ games didn't do hot on mobile.

It's very clear they're trying to reinvigorate the console market in Japan. They don't think it's proper to solely survive on mobile which is the right attitude. Increase console sales with DQ11 ensures their other titles have a much larger potential purchase pool.

3ds is successful, but releasing DQ11 on 3ds doesn't help their long term outlook when it comes to other titles.

 

[MatrixMan.EXE]

Indeed. It is not that simple. That is why we are debating over which is the smartest business decision. Premise: I am pretty sure SQEX is going to bring DQXI on at least PS4; I just think this is not the best business decision as long as DQXI is a traditional DQ (which also means it follows the traditional business model).

First of all, I do not believe in the fairytale that SQEX is willing to "revitalize" the Japanese home console market. The truth is, SQEX sees PS4 as a viable platform for the genre in terms of Western opportunities, and not internal ones. The big push towards PS4 is clearly aimed at North America and Europe; FF and KH sell much more here than in Japan, and SO and Nier follows the same path (though at a different scale); Project Tetsuna is an answer to the excellent sales BD got on 3DS. DQ? It is not the same; DQ always showed to struggle in the West, though being extremely successful in the internal market. It might be possible that SQEX wants to risk everything and going fully on PS4 with that IP as well; DQ Heroes will be a signal in that direction, thought in my opinion it will sell quite badly.

As for PS3/PS4, remember that: SQEX already ditched PS3 in the West (multiplatform games are PS4-bound here) and that PS3 software sales are winding down in Japan as well; a 2016 / 2017 PS3/PS4 might well be a PS4 exclusive at this point.

DQ received a lot of exposure in the West over the past decade, though. DQVIII was launched with a big marketing campaign, and DQ games saw a nice exposure as well. It is quite clear that DQ is not going to be a best-seller outside Japan, and I do not see how come a company should take a huge risk with its biggest IP for the sake of... saving a dying market?

I do think it's a smart business decision, though. That's the thing. Just as much as putting it on 3DS is a smart decision. Which one they'll choose? We'll have to see, but I don't think putting it on PS3/PS4 is misguided at all.

I don't necessarily think Square will be able to revitalise the console market in Japan either, at least not on its own. But it's better for them to try than sitting there doing nothing and risk the whole market collapsing because you didn't try to keep it afloat, no? Give the market reasons to want your console. Something I think Japanese developers were too slow to do, and in many cases outright failed to do last generation with PS3.

That's my angle. PS3 software sales are winding down in Japan because there have been no major releases from Japanese publishers for the system for a while. Dragon Quest Heroes sold well on it, though. With the PS3/PS4 having a joint install base of around 12 million + whatever systems Dragon Quest XI would sell as surplus, I'm sure DQ XI could sell 3-4M, even 5.

Remember, FFXIII did nearly 2M in Japan on PS3 alone in 2009. A franchise that is popular, but far less popular than Dragon Quest in the country. I refuse to believe Dragon Quest XI couldn't do the same and more in 2016, alongside a PS4 SKU. With that they're already fast approaching the 4-5M sales parameter DQ mainline releases must facilitate that I see so many people on these boards parrot to no end.

In regards to Dragon Quest's sales overseas, I'm genuinely curious as to how 'badly' the series has done. At least for mainline entries. I was under the impression Dragon Quest IX actually did pretty well.

Please don't tell me the talentless fucks at L5 got this gig. :C

Edit - Hang on had a mind fuck there, completely got that wrong.

Level 5's game is not DQXI.

 

[KoopaTheCasual]

Yes. That was PR. Of course they want people buying PS4 in Japan, otherwise none of their games would sell well (or well enough). The truth is, those games are Western-oriends, and PS4 is selling well in the West.



Mobile versions are not that great and DQVIII and V will hardly reach PSV and / or PS4.



Because if DQXI is a traditional game, 3DS is the best platform right now. Traditional DQ games didn't do hot on mobile.

Is this also PR?
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=928858

If it is, it's horrible PR for a publicly traded company that exists in a reality of a mobile/handheld dominated Japan. Rational or not, SE execs really seem to want consoles to be strong in Japan again. Call it delusional (it kind of is, sorry Horii), but they're serious about it.

 

[Vena]

I don't necessarily think Square will be able to revitalise the console market in Japan either, at least not on its own. But it's better for them to try than sitting there doing nothing and risk the whole market collapsing because you didn't try to keep it afloat, no? Give the market reasons to want your console. Something I think Japanese developers were too slow to do, and in many cases outright failed to do last generation with PS3.

The market has already spoken.

We had a breakdown of this in Media Create, but when you remove SE... there's little left other than Nintendo pulling the entire market along with the 3DS. Business and people have moved on.

That's my angle. PS3 software sales are winding down in Japan because there have been no major releases from Japanese publishers for the system for a while. Dragon Quest Heroes sold well on it, though. With the PS3/PS4 having a joint install base of around 12 million + whatever systems Dragon Quest XI would sell as surplus, I'm sure DQ XI could sell 3-4M, even 5.

PS3 is no longer a healthy platform, and its audience will grow ever smaller in their software purchases. Some titles will be exceptions but the platform is not one to depend on as a crutch anymore, and more and more titles are proliferating over as many forms and consoles as they can just to stave off the decay.

Remember, FFXIII did nearly 2M in Japan on PS3 alone in 2009. A franchise that is popular, but far less popular than Dragon Quest in the country. I refuse to believe Dragon Quest XI couldn't do the same and more in 2016, alongside a PS4 SKU. With that they're already fast approaching the 4-5M sales parameter DQ mainline releases must facilitate that I see so many people on these boards parrot to no end.

Two million DQXI games on a ~2 million base in 2016? You expecting 90% tie ratio for the title? This is current LTD:

PS4 | 1.551.803

And the current trajectory barring holiday bumps puts it to ~1.9 mil or so by years end, still tracking below the DC but it might eventually surpass it and track along with the N64, but round that up to 2 mil with bumps included. Not even Mario Kart can do 90%.

This is the PS3 by end of 2009 (December 04 to be exact):

PS3 | 4.039.395

--------------------------------

In regards to Dragon Quest's sales overseas, I'm genuinely curious as to how 'badly' the series has done. At least for mainline entries. I was under the impression Dragon Quest IX actually did pretty well.

Starry Skies is roughly 80/20 split between Japan (>4mil) and the rest (>1mil). This is on the DS, though, which had a much larger Western install base than Japanese. So it has a slightly skewed statistical value on western performance.

 

[Dark_castle]

Imagine Dragon Quest 11 with Ni No Kuni graphic style, on the PS4 . Oh my lord!!!

I'll puke if DQXI adopts Ni No Kuni's chibi art style. Yes to cel-shaded visual however.

 

[Bitanator]

I'll puke if DQXI adopts Ni No Kuni's chibi art style. Yes to cel-shaded visual however.

Chibi? The main character was a child... everyone else was of proportion, unless you never played the game

 

[Pennywise83]

I do think it's a smart business decision, though. That's the thing. Just as much as putting it on 3DS is a smart decision. Which one they'll choose? We'll have to see, but I don't think putting it on PS3/PS4 is misguided at all.

I don't necessarily think Square will be able to revitalise the console market in Japan either, at least not on its own. But it's better for them to try than sitting there doing nothing and risk the whole market collapsing because you didn't try to keep it afloat, no? Give the market reasons to want your console. Something I think Japanese developers were too slow to do, and in many cases outright failed to do last generation with PS3.

That's my angle. PS3 software sales are winding down in Japan because there have been no major releases from Japanese publishers for the system for a while. Dragon Quest Heroes sold well on it, though. With the PS3/PS4 having a joint install base of around 12 million + whatever systems Dragon Quest XI would sell as surplus, I'm sure DQ XI could sell 3-4M, even 5.

Remember, FFXIII did nearly 2M in Japan on PS3 alone in 2009. A franchise that is popular, but far less popular than Dragon Quest in the country. I refuse to believe Dragon Quest XI couldn't do the same and more in 2016, alongside a PS4 SKU. With that they're already fast approaching the 4-5M sales parameter DQ mainline releases must facilitate that I see so many people on these boards parrot to no end.

In regards to Dragon Quest's sales overseas, I'm genuinely curious as to how 'badly' the series has done. At least for mainline entries. I was under the impression Dragon Quest IX actually did pretty well.

First, SQEX is putting the big guns on PS4 mainly because of Western sales; FF and KH sell the most in the West (and SO as well). Nier and Project Setsuna will probably break even with a million worldwide which might be doable. Secondly, you cannot count PS3+PS4 as 12m units because many users migrated over PS4 and many probably left the market (heck, PS3 was released 9 years ago); multiplatform games started selling nicely on PS4 (and worses on PS3), which means that there's not much left in the tank for PS3 software-wise. On the other hand, you have 3DS which just showed how it can have plenty of multi-million sellers in a short span of time (YW2 sold around 5m units if count all versions). DQXI at 5m on PS3+PS4 is just wishful thinking given how the IP topped at 4.3m on the most successful platform in Japanese history (and the only PS3 million seller is FFXIII).

DQIX did well in the West, but still in the 1m range, which is way less than JP total (4.3m). The IP was promoted over here on both PS2 and DS but its appeal is probably bounded to be limited.

It's very clear they're trying to reinvigorate the console market in Japan. They don't think it's proper to solely survive on mobile which is the right attitude. Increase console sales with DQ11 ensures their other titles have a much larger potential purchase pool.

3ds is successful, but releasing DQ11 on 3ds doesn't help their long term outlook when it comes to other titles.

Why not? A 3DS game can later be ported on other platforms, and on mobile as well. You get 3.5-4m right now and potential sales later on, on whichever platform.

Also, I don't think you have any idea on how PS4 is selling in Japan, and what is its outlook in the future. FF and KH will increase the installed base, but DQ typically needs 10m+ base to be successful.

What new DQ game launched on mobile to judge sales? Plus I can attach a blue tooth controller to my phone and cast to my TV. By going for mobile they can still make a traditional game and reach the largest audience. Mobile is the biggest platform in Japan so they should make it for that.

DQ mobile portings didn't set the charts on fire; none of them could be seen as a hit in the mobile market. On the other hand, DQM Super Light did really well.

Square Enix is looking at a bigger picture than 1 game.

That is why Dragon Quest VII, VIII and X are on 3DS, right?

 

[yazanov]

I'll puke if DQXI adopts Ni No Kuni's chibi art style. Yes to cel-shaded visual however.

Its not Chibi though. The art style is akin to the famous studio Ghibli art style. Have you seen their Anime? its similar to that.

 

[MatrixMan.EXE]

The market has already spoken.

We had a breakdown of this in Media Create, but when you remove SE... there's little left other than Nintendo pulling the entire market along with the 3DS. Business and people have moved on.



PS3 is no longer a healthy platform, and its audience will grow ever smaller in their software purchases. Some titles will be exceptions but the platform is not one to depend on as a crutch anymore, and more and more titles are proliferating over as many forms and consoles as they can just to stave off the decay.



Two million DQXI games on a ~2 million base in 2016? You expecting 90% tie ratio for the title? This is current LTD:



And the current trajectory barring holiday bumps puts it to ~1.9 mil or so by years end, still tracking below the DC but it might eventually surpass it and track along with the N64, but round that up to 2 mil with bumps included. Not even Mario Kart can do 90%.

This is the PS3 by end of 2009 (December 04 to be exact):


--------------------------------



Starry Skies is roughly 80/20 split between Japan (>4mil) and the rest (>1mil). This is on the DS, though, which had a much larger Western install base than Japanese. So it has a slightly skewed statistical value on western performance.

Okay, so that's some interesting data. Will take a proper look at it when I have the time.

Also, I didn't say 2M on a 2M install base. I said that FFXIII sold 2M on PS3 alone back in 2009 in Japan when the install base was much lower. My point being, why can't Dragon Quest XI, mainline game in a much more popular franchises do more than that on PS3+PS4 in 2016, with a combined install base that'll likely be 12M? I'm sure DQXI could squeeze 4M sales out of that.

 

[Elios83]

I'll puke if DQXI adopts Ni No Kuni's chibi art style. Yes to cel-shaded visual however.

Ni No Kuni had no chibi art style.
Simply the main character was a kid.
Graphics were the natural evolution of what was done in DQ8 with the art style of Ghibli.

 

[Dark_castle]

Right, but the character models still felt slightly deformed to me. Now granted, that could be because of the vibe the few main characters gave me.

 

[Pennywise83]

Okay, so that's some interesting data. Will take a proper look at it when I have the time.

Also, I didn't say 2M on a 2M install base. I said that FFXIII sold 2M on PS3 alone back in 2009 in Japan when the install base was much lower. My point being, why can't Dragon Quest XI, mainline game in a much more popular franchises do more than that on PS3+PS4 in 2016, with a combined install base that'll likely be 12M? I'm sure DQXI could squeeze 4M sales out of that.

The actual installed base is not 12m, though. PS3 was released 9 years and it is naive to think that 100% of PS3 owners are still active; many upgraded towards a new SKU, many changed gaming habits entirely, many migrated over PS3.

Also, PS3 installed base when FFXIII launched was 4.2m units; the game sold at about 35% of the installed base.

 

[Vena]

Okay, so that's some interesting data. Will take a proper look at it when I have the time.

Also, I didn't say 2M on a 2M install base. I said that FFXIII sold 2M on PS3 alone back in 2009 in Japan when the install base was much lower. My point being, why can't Dragon Quest XI, mainline game in a much more popular franchises do more than that on PS3+PS4 in 2016, with a combined install base that'll likely be 12M? I'm sure DQXI could squeeze 4M sales out of that.

Oh you meant PS3 AND PS4? I thought you were speaking of only PS4, lol.

Two million over both MIGHT be possible but the regression in software sales on the PS3 is not slowing down, and every new cross-title we see it slip ever further down the list and its software sales get ever weaker. By 2016 I don't know how much blood is going to left in those veins to tap. By the time DQXI, if its in 2016, launches 1 million might be the actual end result...

Four million is improbable if not outright impossible without including the 3DS. This was the DS when DQIX launched:

NDS | 26,958,437

This is the 3DS right now:

3DS | 18.766.228

These numbers are orders of magnitude larger than what the PS4 has achieved or ever will achieve, and the PS3 just isn't in a healthy state for software so its total hardware sales are no longer very telling. Moreover, the PS3 is too old for the 12 million to be genuine (much as the 3DS and DS are also filled with double-purchases) and the longer a system is out, the more revisions it sees so the re-adoption numbers are ever larger and the actual install base is ever smaller.

If the 3DS isn't included, to quote Nirolak (in not his exact words), it is because SE made a conscious decision in a hopes to prop up future sales with an increased base for their other titles.

 

[wmlk]

Right, but the character models still felt slightly deformed to me. Now granted, that could be because of the vibe the few main characters gave me.

You might just not like anime art styles with kids. The cast in NNK was my favourite thing about the game, personally. It was refreshing.

 

[Y2Kev]

Hope it looks like DQH. That game really looks amazing!

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

Hope it looks like DQH. That game really looks amazing!

Yeah, i couldn't believe how good that game looked.

 

[gtj1092]

DQ mobile portings didn't set the charts on fire; none of them could be seen as a hit in the mobile market. On the other hand, DQM Super Light did really well.



That is why Dragon Quest VII, VIII and X are on 3DS, right?

What port sells more than the original? It seems that mobile has received the most ports and spinoffs this gen so SE would be wise not to abandon their fans on mobile. Also DQ9 and 10 both changed to suit the platform they are on so DQ11 built from the ground up to work on mobile will be a huge hit. The biggest DQ to date plus they can add plenty of microtranactions and makes tons of money. Makes the most business sense.

 

[BossDarkseid]

Briefly reading this thread....

I really can't wait for dqh on ps4.
I want to play dq8 on 3ds soon.
I hope dq7 is good.

I really wouldn't mind Ni No Kuni at 1080p etc on PS4.

 

[Pennywise83]

What port sells more than the original? It seems that mobile has received the most ports and spinoffs this gen so SE would be wise not to abandon their fans on mobile. Also DQ9 and 10 both changed to suit the platform they are on so DQ11 built from the ground up to work on mobile will be a huge hit. The biggest DQ to date plus they can add plenty of microtranactions and makes tons of money. Makes the most business sense.

DQIX was more similar to DQVII with respect to DQVIII.

Btw, that is why I specified "a traditional mainline DQ game with a traditional business model".