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[goomba]

i am basing it on the discussions i had with a couple of analysts at e3. both are based out of tokyo and both showed research from the manufacturers themselves as well as from famitsu and media create. both believe nintendo is beginning to experience lethargy in japan while sony's ps3 and psp continue to steal share

I bet those analysts expected Wii to flop and PS3 to dominate from the beginning of the gen.

 

[Stumpokapow]

i should not have said ps3 is stealing market share because it sends the wrong message. i should have said that ps3 is gaining share, not stealing from wii. it doesn't quite work that way.

But it's not gaining market share. The graph is right there. It can only steal it from the 360 or Wii. It's not stealing from either. Its relative market-share with the 360 is increasing, but its relative market-share with the Wii is decreasing/stable, so no--it is not net gaining marketshare.

let's wait to see what happens in the coming months <in japan). i hope they're wrong but even nintendo japan has said it recognizes a problem, especially in terms of total software attach rate and third-party attach rate.

Wii's JPN tie ratio is bare-minimum 0.75 higher than PS3's in Japan.

 

[Psychotext]

But it's not gaining market share. The graph is right there. It can only steal it from the 360 or Wii. It's not stealing from either. Its relative market-share with the 360 is increasing, but its relative market-share with the Wii is decreasing/stable, so no--it is not net gaining marketshare.

Your first mistake was trying to make sense of the post...

 

[marc^o^]

No wonder GTA is going to the DS with such sales.
Following the same logic, Rockstar is probably working on a GTA for the Wii.

A psychologic barrier has been broken.

 

[dialmydrive]

But it's not gaining market share. The graph is right there. It can only steal it from the 360 or Wii. It's not stealing from either. Its relative market-share with the 360 is increasing, but its relative market-share with the Wii is decreasing/stable, so no--it is not net gaining marketshare.



Wii's JPN tie ratio is bare-minimum 0.75 higher than PS3's in Japan.

are you basing this off media create's numbers? i recommend looking at famitsu's as well as shipment figures <to better determine future expectations>. it's hard to argue when you use m.c. whose low sample and bias don't paint the most accurate picture <imo>.

i would love to continue this debate but i have to get to work. like i said, let's see if the tides start turning in the coming months and where we stand at the end of the year. if wrong, i will stop listening to what's being described as "facts," ignoring analysts altogether.

 

[Evlar]

are you basing this off media create's numbers? i recommend looking at famitsu's as well as shipment figures <to better determine future expectations>. it's hard to argue when you use m.c. whose low sample and bias don't paint the most accurate picture <imo>.

You're full of shit.

Tell me, in how many recent weeks in the Famitsu survey has PS3 outsold Wii, and by how many units per week? I think the last eight weeks should be a good window.

 

[Mgoblue201]

I believe Reggie said that at the conference. But he may have been referring to current sales (where it is/was still charting ahead of any other versions).

I think it's close in the US. It's hard to tell since there were two versions of the 360 game, and one of them was probably floating just outside of the top ten during the October-December sales rush. I would approximate 360 sales at around 1.3-1.4 million by the end of last year. The Wii version was probably within 200k-400k. And of course the Wii version has been selling better since then. The extended user base of the Wii helped extend its life, and I'm sure Rock Band curbed some sales on the 360. The Wii version has also stayed on the UK charts while other versions have fallen off, but I'm not sure what difference that makes. The PS2, Wii, and 360 versions all have silver awards (I believe over 100k in sales), but none of them seem to have gold. There are too many factors in play to evaluate a clear leader unless actual sales figures have been released (I'm not aware of them).

 

[Stumpokapow]

are you basing this off media create's numbers? i recommend looking at famitsu's as well as shipment figures <to better determine future expectations>. it's hard to argue when you use m.c. whose low sample and bias don't paint the most accurate picture <imo>.

I'm basing this off sellthrough numbers as compiled by Rock_Man, preferring Famitsu's to Media-Create's except when Media-Create provides more recent data, which is very rare.

Also LOL@trying to debunk M-C.

i would love to continue this debate but i have to get to work. like i said, let's see if the tides start turning in the coming months and where we stand at the end of the year. if wrong, i will stop listening to what's being described as "facts," ignoring analysts altogether.

It's strange that your job allowed you to attend E3 to chat up Enterbrain analysts and even got you a pass to get in, but did not accord you a travel day on Friday to recuperate or present the information you gained there.

 

[Starchasing]

It's strange that your job allowed you to attend E3 to chat up Enterbrain analysts and even got you a pass to get in, but did not accord you a travel day on Friday to recuperate or present the information you gained there.

ouch!

lol

 

[Parmenides]

i am basing it on the discussions i had with a couple of analysts at e3. both are based out of tokyo and both showed research from the manufacturers themselves as well as from famitsu and media create. both believe nintendo is beginning to experience lethargy in japan while sony's ps3 and psp continue to steal share.

Japan

YTD (2008)

PSP 2,249,398 (+94.9%)

Wii 1,785,703 (-16.6%)

DS 1,709,615 (-59.9%)

PS3 578,135 (+11.4%)

 

[artist]

What are the WW numbers so far (install base) ? Thanks.

 

[Stumpokapow]

What are the WW numbers so far (install base) ? Thanks.

There's no accurate number for this. donny's graph is probably the best bet which uses an estimation based on European shipments and sellthrough rates in the other two territories:

So that graph has actual NPD + actual JPN (not sure if donny's using MC or Enterbrain, but I'd guess Enterbrain) + estimates for "other".

 

[artist]

There's no accurate number for this. donny's graph is probably the best bet which uses an estimation based on European shipments and sellthrough rates in the other two territories:

http://i45.photobucket.com/albums/f64/donny2112/Sales Numbers/WWConsoles-11.png

So that graph has actual NPD + actual JPN (not sure if donny's using MC or Enterbrain, but I'd guess Enterbrain) + estimates for "other".

Thanks Appreciate it.

 

[gofreak]

PS3 must be selling very well in Europe (and 360 not selling so well at all) if donny's YTD estimates are accurate. i.e. selling as much as NA+JPN combined. I make it that about 2.1-2.2m PS3s have been sold in the US+JPN sofar this year (~750k more than 360). So it would need to have sold..850k more than 360 in Europe alone.

I suppose it is possible, but it just initially struck me as a much larger gap than I'd expect.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

This extended talk of Japanese market share is really off topic, but

are you basing this off media create's numbers? i recommend looking at famitsu's as well as shipment figures <to better determine future expectations>. it's hard to argue when you use m.c. whose low sample and bias don't paint the most accurate picture <imo>.

whichever you use, the results aren't drastically different.

 

[snacknuts]

I'm amazed by the MGS4 numbers. I have never heard anyone outside of GAF talk about it.

 

[Pureauthor]

I'm amazed by the MGS4 numbers. I have never heard anyone outside of GAF talk about it.

GameFAQS, Something Awful's YCS, PA's GnT, GameSpot's System Wars...

 

[Vagabundo]

There's no accurate number for this. donny's graph is probably the best bet which uses an estimation based on European shipments and sellthrough rates in the other two territories:

So that graph has actual NPD + actual JPN (not sure if donny's using MC or Enterbrain, but I'd guess Enterbrain) + estimates for "other".

Next Milestone for the Wii is to top the HD userbase (combined)..

Any takers on when/if that will happen?

 

[borghe]

Next Milestone for the Wii is to top the HD userbase (combined)..

Any takers on when/if that will happen?

I'll guess December at the earliest (and possible), February at the latest.

 

[TomServo]

I'm amazed by the MGS4 numbers. I have never heard anyone outside of GAF talk about it.

I'm amazed as well. I've never heard anyone outside of a gaming message board discuss it. That it provided a sales bump that GTAIV couldn't really surprised me.

 

[gofreak]

I'm amazed as well. I've never heard anyone outside of a gaming message board discuss it. That it provided a sales bump that GTAIV couldn't really surprised me.

Big selling games and hardware selling games don't necessarily always overlap, I guess is the lesson here.

Seemingly a large chunk of the GTA market had already invested in one of the HD consoles.

Presumably a bit more of the MGS4 market had yet to hop in.

This is why I'm more hopeful for fresh software to push out the boundaries a bit rather than existing stalwarts.

(That said come Xmas you'll probably have another bump of people buying a next-gen system for GTA or MGS4 or games like that..lots of people don't buy new systems mid-year, so those games will have a cumulative effect come the holidays when more people make that investment).

 

[Yes Boss!]

I'll guess December at the earliest (and possible), February at the latest.

Well, there should be 41 million Wiis by the end of December...big question is if the PS3 and 360 can log another combined sales of 10 million in the same period. Gonna be close but I'm thinking Nintendo will have it all sewn up by the first of the year.

 

[camineet]

So PS3 + 360 HW numbers almost = Wii this month, but not quite.

I'd imagine combined HD console sales will have dropped off for July.

 

[Mr. Wonderful]

joke post or being a troll.

It would take a few months for word to spread to such an effect. Most people don't watch E3. Most people don't know Final Fantasy is going to the 360 as well. A lot of people don't even care.

 

[Jokeropia]

Haha, wow. Idiots as big as dialmydrive only come around very rarely.

 

[Pureauthor]

It would take a few months for word to spread to such an effect. Most people don't watch E3. Most people don't know Final Fantasy is going to the 360 as well. lot of people don't even care.

I'm fairly certain that the people who would care are precisely the people that SE and Microsoft care about in turn.

 

[Randy Lanzarote]

You're gonna hate me for this - None of those clips are from "Cause and Effect" (though they look like it). They're actually from Generations, and the DS9 episode "The Jem'Hedar".

Shameful. You consider yourself a Star Trek fan?

Spoiler

Jem-Hadar destroying the Odyssey on Deep Space Nine. Frasier just nicked the nacelle, which eventually led to a warp core breach.

Awwwww lame.... *hangs head in geek-shame*

I saw an explosion in the nacelle and my mind went straight to C&E. Completely forgot about the Enterp.... Odyssey being destroyed in DS9.

Hey Donny, where will we be able to find the prediction results?

 

[indie85]

Next Milestone for the Wii is to top the HD userbase (combined)..

Any takers on when/if that will happen?

Wont ever happen.

 

[jjasper]

I'd imagine combined HD console sales will have dropped off for July.

Whatever drop off in PS3 sales will be made up for by the 360 "price drop"

 

[Pureauthor]

Wont ever happen.

You're right. As soon as the Wii gets too near Hirai will press the 'Destroy World' button.

Seriously though - what?

 

[NintendosBooger]

Nintendo's home console is number 1 in the USA without a single price drop and without doing the "additional colors" thing, a tactic that all but guarantees higher sales (e.g., DS and PSP). My God, they've yet to shoot their load, but when they do, it's going to be officially over.

 

[Ryu1999]

Nintendo's home console is number 1 in the USA without a single price drop and without doing the "additional colors" thing, a tactics that all but guarantees higher sales (e.g., DS and PSP). My God, they've yet to shoot their load, but when they do, it's going to be officially over.

Lack of a price drop is irrelevant when your product is so much lower in price than your nearest competitor (lol core 360)

 

[Xisiqomelir]

"I lol at your interpretation of NDP sales data"

"I lol that you lol at my iterpretation of NDP sales data"

"I lol that you're loling at my lol of your interpretation of NDP sales data"

IT'S ALL JUST SO FUCKING HILARIOUS!!! :lol

Umm, things don't become washes merely because of disputation. The accumulated sales data is concrete objective fact, so when one analysis takes that data set and runs away into lunacy (this would be dialmydrive's analysis, for those who demand total explication) it is rightfully derided.

 

[Wallach]

Wont ever happen.

MS planning on giving away 360s this holiday? That's probably what it would take.

 

[Vinci]

Lack of a price drop is irrelevant when your product is so much lower in price than your nearest competitor (lol core 360)

He's right about the colors thing though. If and when the system ever slows down, the additional colors might just prop it right back up. Notice I said 'If and when the system ever slows down,' cause I still haven't seen anything to show that it's going to happen.

 

[killakiz]

If the current trends continue, how long till the PS3 and 360 intersect.

 

[Pureauthor]

Just to put things in perspective, the DS has beaten the non-launch non-holiday sales record.

...

...

Winning the crown from it's little brother, the Wii, who beat the previous record in March.

Portables - YAY!

 

[Count Dookkake]

If the current trends continue, how long till the PS3 and 360 intersect.

Which trends?

 

[indie85]

MS planning on giving away 360s this holiday? That's probably what it would take.

Wii wont keep this pace up, WiiWare fatigue WILL set in at some point, at any rate you wont see an increase in wii sales compared to the last 12 months from now on out. Totally different story for PS3 which is gaining momentum, and 360 will always have big months with games like gears 2.
The idea that Wii will outsell both the PS3 and 360 combined is laughable to anyone who considers future factors for growth.

 

[Vinci]

The idea that Wii will outsell both the PS3 and 360 combined is laughable to anyone who considers future factors for growth.

What 'future factors'? How about this factor: The Wii sells just under holiday levels every month of the year, whereas the other two require a huge, exclusive game to even come close to it and will sell mostly in the holidays. Even then, they likely won't outsell the Wii during the holidays by much, and that's only true if Nintendo stops increasing how many systems they produce.

The 'future factors' you're hinting at - what are they? 'Cause all the factors seem to point to the Wii making a clean sweep by the start of next year.

 

[Starchasing]

Lack of a price drop is irrelevant when your product is so much lower in price than your nearest competitor (lol core 360)

Most people dont care about the HD machines...

but lots of people care for the wii but maybe dont want or can spend 250 dollars

maybe they could spend 200


but i have the feeling that wii will never see a price drop

 

[Jaded Alyx]

Wii wont keep this pace up, WiiWare fatigue WILL set in at some point, at any rate you wont see an increase in wii sales compared to the last 12 months from now on out. Totally different story for PS3 which is gaining momentum, and 360 will always have big months with games like gears 2.
The idea that Wii will outsell both the PS3 and 360 combined is laughable to anyone who considers future factors for growth.

WiiWare fatigue?

The PS3 may be gaining momentum, but how much and how long will that last?

You say the 360 will have big months, but what's stopping the Wii from having big months when the pace does drop (whenever that is)?

 

[Ulairi]

Wii wont keep this pace up, WiiWare fatigue WILL set in at some point, at any rate you wont see an increase in wii sales compared to the last 12 months from now on out. Totally different story for PS3 which is gaining momentum, and 360 will always have big months with games like gears 2.
The idea that Wii will outsell both the PS3 and 360 combined is laughable to anyone who considers future factors for growth.

Do you run SDF.com?

 

[Wallach]

Wii wont keep this pace up, WiiWare fatigue WILL set in at some point, at any rate you wont see an increase in wii sales compared to the last 12 months from now on out. Totally different story for PS3 which is gaining momentum, and 360 will always have big months with games like gears 2.
The idea that Wii will outsell both the PS3 and 360 combined is laughable to anyone who considers future factors for growth.

:lol

People never learn, do they?

 

[charlequin]

Wont ever happen.

So do you, like, not understand the basic arithmetic that shows that this will indeed happen within the next 12 months, or are you just, like, crossing your arms and sticking your tongue out from pure stubornness?

If the current trends continue, how long till the PS3 and 360 intersect.

In the US? Even if we take the most generous version of "current trends continue" (i.e. we spot the PS3 a free 200k sales every month due to magic pixie dust), they wouldn't intersect until March 2010 (treating Novembers as two months and Decembers as four.) When you take a more reasonable version (say, the PS3 continuing to outsell X360 each month by something like 50k, closer to what it did last month) it takes... too long to be relevant.

 

[Wallach]

In the US? Even if we take the most generous version of "current trends continue" (i.e. we spot the PS3 a free 200k sales every month due to magic pixie dust), they wouldn't intersect until March 2010 (treating Novembers as two months and Decembers as four.) When you take a more reasonable version (say, the PS3 continuing to outsell X360 each month by something like 50k, closer to what it did last month) it takes... too long to be relevant.

But... 10-year plan!

Clearly nobody will be prepared for Sony when they make their move in 2012.

 

[Pureauthor]

Wii wont keep this pace up, WiiWare fatigue WILL set in at some point,

Firstly you've no call to state that the Wii won't keep the pace up, especially not when a game like Wii Fit has just launched. ('Just' in the 'relative to legs' sense).

Secondly, I'm pretty sure WiiWare has very little to do with the Wii's success.

at any rate you wont see an increase in wii sales compared to the last 12 months from now on out. Totally different story for PS3 which is gaining momentum, and 360 will always have big months with games like gears 2.

The PS3 is gaining momentum? Based on what? A single month in which the most hyped exclusive for the system has released? (Not to mention all the other stuff Sony did to make buying a PS3 as easy a decision as possible?) How about we wait for July's data before that, eh?

Of course, you could be referring to YoY growth. In which case the Wii's not faring noticeably worse.

The 360's biggest game month ever saw it knocked up like 300K and sales fell down to the same level as previous months before that. And Gears 2 is not as big as Halo 3.

The idea that Wii will outsell both the PS3 and 360 combined is laughable to anyone who considers future factors for growth.

Niche consoles catering to a specific subset of what is already a relatively small community, vs a console actively trying to capture all the demographics that hitherto have no played video games.

'Future factors for growth', indeed.

 

[Ryu1999]

Most people dont care about the HD machines...

but lots of people care for the wii but maybe dont want or can spend 250 dollars

maybe they could spend 200


but i have the feeling that wii will never see a price drop

I'm not debating the Wii's success. I'm just saying being surprised at its success in spite of a lack of a price drop is just being intellectually dishonest given Wii hasn't seen a lull to warrant a pricedrop in the first place

 

[indie85]

The 'future factors' you're hinting at - what are they? 'Cause all the factors seem to point to the Wii making a clean sweep by the start of next year.

Blu ray (HD) taking up an ever increase in home movie sales, wiiware starting to look like dated shit even to casuals, build up of great next gen game libraries on both PS3 and x360, price cuts, fragmentation of wii market through different add ons, etc....

 

[Pureauthor]

But... 10-year plan!

Clearly nobody will be prepared for Sony when they make their move in 2012.

Actually, a couple of good folks at PA's GnT have calculated a 2014 hostile takeover* from Sony.

*vs. the 360. The Wii sits on its throne and laughs.