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[borghe]

I'm sure both consoles will do well, but it's going to be hilarious to see the Nov/Dec NPD threads.

I love me a good meltdown.

eh, unless you are predicting the XBONE outselling PS4 or PS4 vastly outselling XBONE, I can't believe there will be any meltdowns (even from XBONE users).

Nov/Dec will be largely uneventful with pretty much (near-)sellouts, close numbers probably leaning slightly in favor of PS4.

If there are meltdowns, I'd expect those in the Jan thread. That's where Wii U fell off the face of the earth and never made the climb back. If one/both consoles end up there.. whoa yeah... meltdown city.

 

[Nightengale]

for there to be an even split you would also need to have areas reporting reserves hugely in favor of xbox. i'm just not seeing that. has anyone else?

You raise a fair point, but that's still speculative. It could be that 90% of the area has a 50:50 split, with 10% favouring PS4. That's not really that big of a ratio difference. We don't have enough Detective_GAF representing the entire USA to do a proper study scope.

Where's NSA when you need them?

 

[Tsundere]

We should be getting exactly the right amount of Day One editions to satisfy reserves. The rest are presumably standard editions.


That said these things rarely go 100% to plan...The comments I saw about Gamestop taking reserves and not meeting those reservations is to my knowledge false.

There is a reason why we do preorders, so we can know how many we need come launch.

That isn't up to Gamestop in any which case, which you should know all to well. It is up to the manufacturer to be able to put out enough units to satisfy the total demand. Your allocation is based off supply, demand, and geographical factors. You can say "we need 100", but then HQ will say "well, you're only getting 40".

 

[la flama blanca]

Have you? I think you're both wrong, there's no real way to know at this point.

I work with people who have had the opportunity at gamestop manager shows, so I'd say I have a pretty good perspective of what's to come. Just yesterday talking to my gf and sister who are both teachers in the NYC, I've come to learn that just about all of the kids in their classes don't even know what the xbox one is, but they desperately want the PS4.

 

[nikos]

Good news.

That's a lot of beta testers that can let me know about the overheating issues that Marcus Beer's insiders are talking about.

Stuff I want to know about before buying.

I feel like an asshole for doing the same thing, haha. Let the early adopters pay their premium. Let them be burdened with faulty hardware.

waiting till next year is a great idea!

My launch day PS3 is still going strong. Never had a single issue. I'm sure I'll be saying the same about my launch day PS4 in seven years.

 

[SpartanN92]

eh, unless you are predicting the XBONE outselling PS4 or PS4 vastly outselling XBONE, I can't believe there will be any meltdowns (even from XBONE users).

Nov/Dec will be largely uneventful with pretty much (near-)sellouts, close numbers probably leaning slightly in favor of PS4.

If there are meltdowns, I'd expect those in the Jan thread. That's where Wii U fell off the face of the earth and never made the climb back. If one/both consoles end up there.. whoa yeah... meltdown city.

This...If you look at the preorder list we only have ONE Wii U reserve (A layaway counts as a preorder)

It's gonna be a blood bath and I think Wii U is gonna be a spectator.

 

[coughlanio]

I live in Dublin, Ireland.

Places here are taking preorders for March/April. That's according to my local HMV anyway.

 

[SpartanN92]

That isn't up to Gamestop in any which case, which you should know all to well. It is up to the manufacturer to be able to put out enough units to satisfy the total demand. Your allocation is based off supply, demand, and geographical factors. You can say "we need 100", but then HQ will say "well, you're only getting 40".

They cut us off at our cap. They don't tell us a cap until we hit it. It's like a hidden reserve on eBay. The cap is to make sure we have enough units come launch.

 

[bug_42]

I was thinking of canceling my pre-order, but it sounds like these maybe hard to come by.

 

[Tsundere]

They cut us off at our cap. They don't tell us a cap until we hit it. It's like a hidden reserve on eBay. The cap is to make sure we have enough units come launch.

And yet, those aren't even guaranteed. My friend was a manager at EB Games, he's now only a part-time employee, and told me that, allocations are always just an estimate, and for hardware, they tend to be hit and miss at times.

 

[Knoxcore]

I don't know what people expect. The XBox 360 controlled 60%+ of the market share this generation. If anyone believes the PS4 can just wipe that away they have another thing coming. The fact that it's even in this one location is impressive enough. We have seen anecdotal evidence that the PS4 is far outselling the XBO in other locations. I think PS4 fanboys should relax and not to expect a 80% market share in PS4's favor when all is set and done.

 

[Dragon]

I don't know what people expect. The XBox 360 controlled 60%+ of the market share this generation. If anyone believes the PS4 can just wipe that away they have another thing coming. The fact that it's even in this one location is impressive enough. We have seen anecdotal evidence that the PS4 is far outselling the XBO in other locations. I think PS4 fanboys should relax and not to expect a 80% market share in PS4's favor when all is set and done.

Even if you're talking about the US your numbers aren't accurate.

 

[SpartanN92]

And yet, those aren't even guaranteed. My friend was a manager at EB Games, he's now only a part-time employee, and told me that, allocations are always just an estimate, and for hardware, they tend to be hit and miss at times.

That's why I said these things don't always go right 100% of the time... That said management seems confident that our area will get our reserve allocation without any hiccups (Barring of course major accidents like shipping truck wreck or robbery or whatever.)

 

[DragonSworne]

Everything sells out during the holidays, as witnessed by Wii U.

The real battleground is during Jan-March. This is when The OG Xbox started selling well more than the Gamecube.

 

[Nightengale]

TIt's gonna be a blood bath and I think Wii U is gonna be a spectator.

C'mon, Nintendo.... Deliver that next-gen console Pokemon JRPG/MMO.

Extend your 3DeSperation over to Wii U too.

 

[la flama blanca]

I don't know what people expect. The XBox 360 controlled 60%+ of the market share this generation. If anyone believes the PS4 can just wipe that away they have another thing coming. The fact that it's even in this one location is impressive enough. We have seen anecdotal evidence that the PS4 is far outselling the XBO in other locations. I think PS4 fanboys should relax and not to expect a 80% market share in PS4's favor when all is set and done.

You're in for a world of butt hurt.

 

[sixteen-bit]

600 PS4s aint shit to chad warden

 

[SpartanN92]

C'mon, Nintendo.... Deliver that next-gen console Pokemon JRPG/MMO.

Extend your 3DeSperation over to Wii U too.

This...

I swear Nintendo is run by a bunch of out of touch morons...
An 8 year old could have told Iwata during Wii U conception:

*Dumb confusing name. Call it Wii 2.
*Launch with Mario Kart
*Launch Legacy Pokemon games on disk
*Promise Pokemon MMO
*Launch with Mario 64 HD

 

[HomerSimpson-Man]

Wow, my local Best Buy I preordered from because I have gift certificates, stopped taking pre-orders at around 117 for the PS4 and that was like 2 months ago, but 600?

Holy crap. This got to be in waves, cause how in the hell does a tiny ass store like gamestop get 600 consoles on launch? Hell, I worked at Best Buy, you don't get 600 of anything!

 

[Tsundere]

That's why I said these things don't always go right 100% of the time... That said management seems confident that our area will get our reserve allocation without any hiccups (Barring of course major accidents like shipping truck wreck or robbery or whatever.)

So what are you non-capped number looking like? If your store gets stopped on taking pre-orders based on your cap, what's the waiting list look like for your store? You do keep a waiting list right (my friend's store does).

 

[gundamkyoukai]

You raise a fair point, but that's still speculative. It could be that 90% of the area has a 50:50 split, with 10% favouring PS4. That's not really that big of a ratio difference. We don't have enough Detective_GAF representing the entire USA to do a proper study scope.

Where's NSA when you need them?

Plus you also need to take the population into account .
In one place it could be 3 to 1 with numbers like 15 to 5 for X1 .
Then in other place it could be 2 to 1 in PS4 favor but with numbers like 100 to 50 .
We don't have enough data to really get any sort of idea .

 

[goombatommy]

Well, at least you got a phone call. My Gamestop manager has guaranteed me a copy on launch day, however when asked when they would start phone calls, he said they already started a couple weeks ago.

Here we are, next Friday is release and they STILL haven't called me. Then again - my local gamestop is quite notorious for not calling people for pre-orders and such, so.

 

[SpartanN92]

So what are you non-capped number looking like? If your store gets stopped on taking pre-orders based on your cap, what's the waiting list look like for your store? You do keep a waiting list right (my friend's store does).

We do not keep a waiting list at my store...Once we satisfy the preorders any left over are a first come first serve basis.

 

[CaveKitty]

I feel most people will choose the system that all of their friends are getting. If all of my friends were getting XB1, I would be getting my multiplatform games on that. However, none of my friends are going next gen, so I am buying what I think will run the best (ps4).

However, I bet for the casual gamers (COD kids, etc), they will go with XB1, because that is what their friends will do (we all do know that XB1 is going to be on every kids xmas list).

 

[Tsundere]

We do not keep a waiting list at my store...Once we satisfy the preorders any left over are a first come first serve basis.

Oh alright, that's a bit weird then. So that just means your store has more allocation for Xbox One than PS4 and doesn't represent demand; gotcha.

 

[Khalifa Jayy]

I've already sold two target preorders for a net profit of $220. I'm not trying to flip these things for ridiculous amounts. Ebay is too much of a headache and you need to charge $650+ to turn a decent profit anyway. I sold them in-person via craigslist and did just fine. It's my first time ever scalping a console at launch, but it's also the first time I've had to plunk down over $1000 in one month for two consoles launching at the same time, so I felt like I needed to offset the sting of that a little lol.

$220 each or for both? If the latter, that's not very much profit.

 

[Mung]

I feel most people will choose the system that all of their friends are getting. If all of my friends were getting XB1, I would be getting my multiplatform games on that. However, none of my friends are going next gen, so I am buying what I think will run the best (ps4).

However, I bet for the casual gamers (COD kids, etc), they will go with XB1, because that is what their friends will do (we all do know that XB1 is going to be on every kids xmas list).

Funny you say that.. There was a thread today suggesting that kids want the ps4..

 

[SpartanN92]

Well, at least you got a phone call. My Gamestop manager has guaranteed me a copy on launch day, however when asked when they would start phone calls, he said they already started a couple weeks ago.

Here we are, next Friday is release and they STILL haven't called me. Then again - my local gamestop is quite notorious for not calling people for pre-orders and such, so.

That is probably just due to sheer number of people to call and a lack of time to make calls.

You are expected to mark the date on your calendar.

At my store we try to make calls if we can but sometimes it's just not possible. You try calling 300+ people for CoD and another 2000 for every other game...it's just not possible. Also people frequently give wrong/fake/out of date numbers and we just cant take the time to track everybody down.

 

[SpartanN92]

Oh alright, that's a bit weird then. So that just means your store has more allocation for Xbox One than PS4 and doesn't represent demand; gotcha.

Please read my previous comments.

Based on demand MS allocated us more after we hit our cap. When we hit our cap they were notified and said we could have more.

 

[markhimself46]

Gat dayum! 600 preorders is NUTS. Less than two weeks!

 

[N.Domixis]

I feel most people will choose the system that all of their friends are getting. If all of my friends were getting XB1, I would be getting my multiplatform games on that. However, none of my friends are going next gen, so I am buying what I think will run the best (ps4).

However, I bet for the casual gamers (COD kids, etc), they will go with XB1, because that is what their friends will do (we all do know that XB1 is going to be on every kids xmas list).

the ps4 is cheaper, casuals have the least loyalty, they just buy the cheapest thing to play their cods. XBOX will not win with a price of $600, otherwise the casuals should have flocked to the ps3 in the beginning when all their friends had ps2s.

 

[Dragon]

That is probably just due to sheer number of people to call and a lack of time to make calls.

You are expected to mark the date on your calendar.

At my store we try to make calls if we can but sometimes it's just not possible. You try calling 300+ people for CoD and another 2000 for every other game...it's just not possible. Also people frequently give wrong/fake/out of date numbers and we just cant take the time to track everybody down.

Weird they don't just have a way to text everyone who has a preorder on a particular game.

 

[Chucker]

I tried making a thread on this subject but it got locked. Mine's in a mall so I'm only worried about the walk to my car. Almost considering waiting for the next morning just to not risk it.

It's a good topic to make. Even if it's not focusing on the danger, but the fun of camping out. The relative was at the same best buy I was at camping out for the launch of the 360 and this was the 2nd shipment in December.

I'll see if anybody has any other type of thread made, because I think it's a good discussion.

 

[SpartanN92]

Weird they don't just have a way to text everyone who has a preorder on a particular game.

Yes you think corporate would do that...However not everybody gives us Cell Numbers.

 

[Tsundere]

Please read my previous comments.

Based on demand MS allocated us more after we hit our cap. When we hit our cap they were notified and said we could have more.

So you're saying there has been zero demand for PS4 after the capped pre-orders then? Because you're implying that your supply goes with your demand.

 

[borghe]

I feel most people will choose the system that all of their friends are getting. If all of my friends were getting XB1, I would be getting my multiplatform games on that. However, none of my friends are going next gen, so I am buying what I think will run the best (ps4).

However, I bet for the casual gamers (COD kids, etc), they will go with XB1, because that is what their friends will do (we all do know that XB1 is going to be on every kids xmas list).

You are right on this, HOWEVER I think the big point many are trying to make is that having a huge friends list on one platform isn't going to make your friends' choice of the next platform a forgone conclusion.

Yeah I'm basically summing it up for XBL, but the truth is it can apply to PSN as well. Just because all of your friends are on one service for the most part going to this new gen most will reevaluate accordingly. It might mean switching, it might mean staying. I just don't think there will be a lot of (sane) people choosing one over the other because of meta shit like friends and or achievements/trophies. That will be like "Well, I'm going with this. (Good thing)/(sucks) that all of my history is on this (other) system."

 

[moho-foe]

You raise a fair point, but that's still speculative. It could be that 90% of the area has a 50:50 split, with 10% favouring PS4. That's not really that big of a ratio difference. We don't have enough Detective_GAF representing the entire USA to do a proper study scope.

Where's NSA when you need them?

if anything, a 50/50 split is looking like the exception and not the rule; let alone 2-1 in favor of xbox. i would have to see reports like that to think otherwise.

 

[SpartanN92]

So you're saying there has been zero demand for PS4 after the capped pre-orders then? Because you're implying that your supply goes with your demand.

The demand is there for Sony of course but they have refused to allocate more units...Whether we are a low priority area, they ran out of stock, MS has more stock etc. is not known.


The point that should be gleaned from this all is that both systems are gonna sell out. Plain and simple. If you don't have a reserve then damn I pray for you...Getting one is gonna be a bitch.

 

[FStop7]

Temptation to flip rising

 

[N.Domixis]

You are right on this, HOWEVER I think the big point many are trying to make is that having a huge friends list on one platform isn't going to make your friends' choice of the next platform a forgone conclusion.

Yeah I'm basically summing it up for XBL, but the truth is it can apply to PSN as well. Just because all of your friends are on one service for the most part going to this new gen most will reevaluate accordingly. It might mean switching, it might mean staying. I just don't think there will be a lot of (sane) people choosing one over the other because of meta shit like friends and or achievements/trophies.

Exactly casuals dont give a shit about their achievements or friends list. The ps4 has a better chance with the casuals with $400.

 

[Goliath]

This...

I swear Nintendo is run by a bunch of out of touch morons...
An 8 year old could have told Iwata during Wii U conception:

*Dumb confusing name. Call it Wii 2.
*Launch with Mario Kart
*Launch Legacy Pokemon games on disk
*Promise Pokemon MMO
*Launch with Mario 64 HD

The Wii Mini makes it even more confusing.

 

[borghe]

Japan isn't even a launch territory.... That all said though, Launch sales at the end are irrelevant. This is a long term fight for both companies...Software will decide the winner in the end.

eh, sort of.. software is certainly A decider, but momentum as well. Wii (granted it was a phenomenon) sold well regardless of software droughts. Similarly PS3 didn't have a whole ton of droughts yet in the US got hit pretty hard against 360 (and Wii).

So yes in the end quality exclusives will sell the systems, but they are far from the only decider. If one system commands a constant and noticeable lead, without some sort of shift in momentum the software development AND sales will largely correlate to that momentum (and vice versa).

 

[Hoo-doo]

Everything sells out during the holidays, as witnessed by Wii U.

The real battleground is during Jan-March. This is when The OG Xbox started selling well more than the Gamecube.

Wii-U certainly didn't sell out anywhere in The Netherlands. That thing was clogging up shelves hardcore even right after launch.

 

[Memento_Mori15]

I really hope there isnt a shortage. GAF told me that there would be plenty of ps4s and that I wouldn't need a pre-order! I was planning to pick one up after the semester ended or around January.

 

[SpartanN92]

Wii-U certainly didn't sell out anywhere in The Netherlands. That thing was clogging up shelves hardcore even right after launch.

Shit I think we have more preowned Wii U's than new ones right now. They stopped shipping us new ones and existing customers are jumping ship.

 

[Killroyskbg]

Japan isn't even a launch territory.... That all said though, Launch sales at the end are irrelevant. This is a long term fight for both companies...Software will decide the winner in the end.

No they are not. When the not hardcore gamers start looking at getting a new console they will look at where their friends are. It´s like a snowball effect. If one console have huge market advantage this will push people in that direction and also attract more games since there are more potential customers there also first party titles will get more money and attract even more.

 

[ironcreed]

600 PS4s aint shit to chad warden

 

[JimmyRustler]

I don't know what people expect. The XBox 360 controlled 60%+ of the market share this generation. If anyone believes the PS4 can just wipe that away they have another thing coming. The fact that it's even in this one location is impressive enough. We have seen anecdotal evidence that the PS4 is far outselling the XBO in other locations. I think PS4 fanboys should relax and not to expect a 80% market share in PS4's favor when all is set and done.

I think you don't grasp yet hoe many people are going from Xbox to Playstation with the NextGen. I've seen Gamerscore nerds jumping ship and abandoning their hard earned points....

 

[todd360]

I don't know. I would never have been stupid enough to ask for a 500 dollar console for Christmas. No way in hell I would have got it. I always just asked for money so little by little I could finally afford the console I wanted. Only consoles I ever got as a kid was a used genesis and a used ps1. I was 3 when I got genesis and I'm not sure if I asked for ps1. I got a used Super Nintendo as well but that was a we will buy it for you if you ring bear at this wedding thing.

 

[Alebrije]

This thread just proves why MS got Titanfall as an exclusive. If your userbase is going to otherplaces you need somehting big to stop or reduce the damage.

Here in Mexico people moving from 360 to PS4 is real and with similar pathern to other places , and just because is the cheaper console and will have better graphics.

There are also two factors that are moving mexicans users to SONY consoles(s)

1) Plus : came to open an alternative to monopoly distributors that control the retail game sales so now we can get cheaper videogames due to store deals.

Lots of mexican gamers have 360 just because they can get cheap games in the "black market" , not only piracy copies but original games that do not pay taxes or are robed from distributors. PS3 games are harder to copy so there is practical no pirate market, so Plus has become a good deal for mexican users.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VEVmp7oZ3Eg


2) TLOU : this games is great but most important is the momentum it gave to the PS3/SONY brand these monts, PS3 has a better appeal at the end of current generation. 360 lost momentum months ago.