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[RoboPlato]

He's saying it's good for a new IP, but we know the actual economics for the average AAA big budget game. If the game fails to hit 500k in its first month, that's not a very positive number based on past analysis on the economics of game budgets and markets.

Addendum: Depending on what the "big budget" actually is. Obviously, a 20 million budget is different sort of big budget from a 40 million budget. A 20 million might be able to get away with under 500k, but a 40 million one certainly would not.

I'm expecting the budget to probably be around 30-40 million but given how much engine and asset work went into this game, greenlighting a sequel could be a lower bar due to how much easier and faster it could potentially be.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

He's saying it's good for a new IP, but we know the actual economics for the average AAA big budget game. If the game fails to hit 500k in its first month, that's not a very positive number based on past analysis on the economics of game budgets and markets.

Addendum: Depending on what the "big budget" actually is. Obviously, a 20 million budget is different sort of big budget from a 40 million budget. A 20 million might be able to get away with under 500k, but a 40 million one certainly would not.

If Sony gets $35(might be higher) per sale that is 17.5 million in the first month from one territory @500k.
NA is also not there strongest territory still it depends on a lot of factors( like DD for one eg) but they have it easier than a 3rd party game.

 

[OsirisBlack]

For a game like The Order, given that

... and 200k pre-orders is not a great start in a single territory for a big budget AAA. It's hard to gauge how much extra on top of that it'll sell because it's a new IP from an unproven-on-consoles company, but the indication is definitely toward underperforming if the number is accurate. Better than my worst case scenario prediction, but definitely not super hot.

It's all contextual and it's hard to be 100% sure without knowing the actual budget number, but a developer of a big budget AAA is gonna want to hope to see at least 500-700k sales in an individual territory in the first month the way the typical industry business model works.

This is a very true statement but the number is pretty impressive when looking at the fact its a new IP that is exclusive to one system. The thing is we always get way more walk ins than we do pre orders. As many pre orders as we had for CODAW we have had triple that amount of people that just walk in. Also everyone that pre orders a game does not always pick it up. (I have gotten so many premium/collectors editions because people just don't pick them up).

So what do you believe will be the estimated first month sales for The Order I am going to assume with 200k+ pre-orders alone I am going to say 500k+ just in the US.

It they show this ad on television and the next trailer is even better id say 450k easily, if the game gets a high 80's low 90's metacritic it will do very well. The only thing that concerns me is that people have come to expect some sort of tacked on multiplayer mode.

Edited to add:

Using CODAW was a very bad example as its COD but you could easily swap it out with Shadows of Mordor which basically did 4x the pre order numbers in walk ins.

 

[kyser73]

But the person whose numbers you are quoting...



...thinks otherwise?

I'd like to see you two debate this since I'm not an expert when it comes to hard numbers. I'm more of a "feels" guy, you see?

Also worth remembering that that 200K number is from a couple of weeks ago, and for one (very big) chain.

IIRC Osiris works for Gamestop, which again IIRC accounts for about 50% of all gaming sales in the US, so if I pull some numbers out of my ass on this, there could be a minimum of 400K across NA alone.

Amir0x - are you sure you're not projecting a hobbyists disappointment at what they've seen so far into a game which is clearly aimed at a wider, more mainstream/casual audience?

Arkham - thanks dude! Looking forward to seeing my lovely Cheryl up there!

 

[FF Seraphim]

It they show this ad on television and the next trailer is even better id say 450k easily, if the game gets a high 80's low 90's metacritic it will do very well. The only thing that concerns me is that people have come to expect some sort of tacked on multiplayer mode.

Sony would be a fool not to market this game properly... but alas we know they are indeed very foolish.

 

[viveks86]

He's saying it's good for a new IP, but we know the actual economics for the average AAA big budget game. If the game fails to hit 500k in its first month, that's not a very positive number based on past analysis on the economics of game budgets and markets.

Addendum: Depending on what the "big budget" actually is. Obviously, a 20 million budget is different sort of big budget from a 40 million budget. A 20 million might be able to get away with under 500k, but a 40 million one certainly would not.

With 200k preorders in one country (and one retail chain?) more than a month before launch, I'd certainly expect the game to comfortably sell over 500k in the first month. Closer to a million even. But that's the point where I will admit I have absolutely no idea what I'm talking about and just extrapolating to suit my side of the argument

 

[gundamkyoukai]

Sony would be a fool not to market this game properly... but alas we know they are indeed very foolish.

The question is which Sony marketing shows up.
When they ready they market stuff heavy for eg KZ , UC , TLOU ,GT but they also send games to die.
Lets hope it's the right one that shows up.

 

[DarkLordMalik]

Grabbed all the epic action in one GIF minus the melee

Would love for someone to Mustache-fy my avatar

 

[kyser73]

The question is which Sony marketing shows up.
When they ready they market stuff heavy for eg KZ , UC , TLOU ,GT but they also send games to die.
Lets hope it's the right one that shows up.

I reckon they'll put some muscle behind it.

 

[OsirisBlack]

With 200k preorders in one country (and one retail chain?) more than a month before launch, I'd certainly expect the game to comfortably sell over 500k in the first month. Closer to a million even. But that's the point where I will admit I have absolutely no idea what I'm talking about and just extrapolating to suit my side of the argument

GS + BB = more than VG number by about 40k no clue about the tall chicks numbers. 450k is a safe bet for the first month and that's being conservative. I don't have a lot of confidence in Sonys marketing team.

 

[GHG]

Grabbed all the epic action in one GIF minus the melee

Would love for someone to Mustache-fy my avatar

I'm so ready for this game.

The gunplay looks fantastic.

 

[bill1148]

Looks like a solid 7/10.

 

[viveks86]

GS + BB = more than VG number by about 40k no clue about the tall chicks numbers. 450k is a safe bet for the first month and that's being conservative. I don't have a lot of confidence in Sonys marketing team.

I wonder what the preorder/walkin ratio will be for this game. Based on how good the story is, I expect reviewers to score this really well or really poorly. I'm guessing that has a direct correlation to walk ins?

 

[GHG]

Looks like a solid 7/10.

I was thinking more along the lines of 7.3/10 or 72.7/100 but whatever.

 

[pikmin_trainer]

Game looks really good graphically but not that great besides that. Hope it is great for everybody that wants to play it, but I'll definitely pass unless it gets good word of mouth after release.

 

[LookAtMeGo]

I was thinking more along the lines of 7.3/10 or 72.7/100 but whatever.

it will be "maybe" on Kotaku.

 

[Jobbs]

looks like what gears of war 1 was for last gen -- and, indeed, seems a lot like steampunk gears of war + a dash of uncharted. and I think I'm okay with that, since the production values are so amazing. nothing wrong with that. can't wait.

 

[xenorevlis]

Would love for someone to Mustache-fy my avatar

Here you go...

 

[OsirisBlack]

I wonder what the preorder/walkin ratio will be for this game. Based on how good the story is, I expect reviewers to score this really well or really poorly. I'm guessing that has a direct correlation to walk ins?

Not really, generally walk ins are people who saw a game trailer on tv that don't read forums or magazines. People who saw a game at a friends house or heard about a game from a friend. Good Word of mouth is still absolutely critical to sales numbers.

We also get a ton of what I call third day gamers who come in two to three days after a game has come out hoping to catch an early return. This boggles my mind because (Yes I know our policies suck) when a game is that new its generally $4 or $5 dollars difference between used and new.

 

[ThoseDeafMutes]

So it seems pretty obvious that you will end up taking down someone inside your own order and/or the rebels will secretly be the good guys.

 

[Juraash]

This trailer actually created some hype for me. Visually it looks amazing and the gameplay seems solid enough. I just hope there's nice long chunks of gameplay.

Probably still not a preorder for me with Majora and Monster Hunter hitting a week earlier. Still it's on my to buy list unless word of mouth is really bad following release.

 

[viveks86]

Not really, generally walk ins are people who saw a game trailer on tv that don't read forums or magazines. People who saw a game at a friends house or heard about a game from a friend. Good Word of mouth is still absolutely critical to sales numbers.

I see. Interesting. Then what drives this perception that game reviews significantly affect sales?

We also get a ton of what I call third day gamers who come in two to three days after a game has come out hoping to catch an early return. This boggles my mind because (Yes I know our policies suck) when a game is that new its generally $4 or $5 dollars difference between used and new.

Lol. Consumerism at its finest.

 

[RoboPlato]

I see. Interesting. Then what drives this perception that game reviews significantly affect sales?

Probably the fact that publishers place huge value on metascore.

 

[Putty]

Add me to the hype Wagonmobile please! 8)

 

[darkwing]

LOL the Knack army

 

[LookAtMeGo]

So it seems pretty obvious that you will end up taking down someone inside your own order and/or the rebels will secretly be the good guys.

I assumed after the PSX demo that Alester(?) was a bad guy. He didnt seem to see eye to eye with Percival then on the airship and now he has a gun pointed at Galahad.

 

[viveks86]

Probably the fact that publishers place huge value on metascore.

But why? If it doesn't affect sales, why do they care? Bragging rights?

 

[Hidden One]

Here you go...

Thats funny. Maybe Joel could use a bit of a more evil mustache >

 

[orthodoxy1095]

Can I get on that hype wagon? :3

 

[Blablurn]

Good luck with the release, Ready at Dawn. And congratulations on going gold.

 

[Blimblim]

Where's the gamersyde video (is there a gamersyde video?)

We are still looking, but we didn't get any new medias from Sony since Playstation Experience, it all was Youtube exclusive since then so I wouldn’t count on it.

 

[Adam_Roman]

I'd like to join the hype carriage. I've been excited since the E3 2013 trailer and now it's so close...

 

[StrongBlackVine]

It's not a shot, but okay.

I'm part of that crowd...

EDIT: They've always been targeting the extremely cinematic, QTE, retina-burning graphics crowd, so I feel the comparison is apt. I'm sure it could be a fun short campaign.

This games doesn't primarily use waggle controls or have a branching story. Until Dawn(which looks awesome too) is an example of a game aimed at the Quantic Dream crowd.

 

[AbandonedTrolley]

Pop the Trolley on that hype wagon!

 

[Nightengale]

Japanese version of this trailer has some different/extra scenes!

Need to update the GIFs.

 

[DrM]

Any estimation on game's length? 10+ hours or less?

 

[LookAtMeGo]

Japanese version of this trailer has some different/extra scenes!

Need to update the GIFs.

oh my god it showed a lycan that looked more like a actual werewolf... oh man

 

[Callibretto]

Any estimation on game's length? 10+ hours or less?

Someone said 8-10 hours, 10-12 if you explore around and take your time

 

[HORRORSHØW]

link to jpn trailer pls.

 

[Skux]

Sony would be a fool not to market this game properly... but alas we know they are indeed very foolish.

They'll step it up. Infamous SS got a big push in the final weeks.

 

[Callibretto]

oh my god it showed a lycan that looked more like a actual werewolf... oh man

With fur? How's the fur effect?

 

[WordsintheWater]

Any estimation on game's length? 10+ hours or less?

Shinobi said that is should be 8-12 hours depending on difficulty and how many collectibles you find.

 

[M.W.]

Someone said 8-10 hours, 10-12 if you explore around and take your time

I've also heard 6-8 hours. Who fuckin knows.

 

[DrM]

Shinobi said that is should be 8-12 hours depending on difficulty and how many collectibles you find.

Pretty short to be honest....

 

[BenHargrove]

We ride into the sunset. That's fantastic.

I would love this to be my first hype train!!

 

[LookAtMeGo]

With fur? How's the fur effect?

it was a split second, it flew past the screen. let me see if i can screen grab it

 

[viveks86]

Japanese version

 

[KC Denton]

So it seems pretty obvious that you will end up taking down someone inside your own order and/or the rebels will secretly be the good guys.

The original GameInformer preview for this game definitely gave that kind of impression when describing the setting. Even the half-breeds had a sympathetic origin.

 

[viveks86]

Yup. That's a proper werewolf alright

 

[LookAtMeGo]

Screen grab of lycan. Posted URL to avoid spoiler.
http://i.imgur.com/KB2Lst9h.jpg

Its kind of blurry