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[Mithos]

The gamepad adds $100 to the console price. While it may be neat and novel, the majority of gamers (people who buy gaming consoles) don't want it, they would rather have a standard gaming controller like the DS or Xbox pad. No one wants to pay an extra $100 for a gimmick they don't really want.

The Wii-U- is simply too expensive for what it is, and the gamepad is a huge part of the reason. Drop it, then price drop the Wii-U, and see sales increase. It's that simple.

Lets say they do remove the Gamepad, FORGET the notion of a $100 pricedrop, the controller needs to be replaced, and it has to be the Wii U Pro controller (same buttons, - screen) and that one cost money to, expect a drop in price around $50 TOPS.

 

[KennyLinder]

What are the advantages of having your own hardware if it has virtually no third party support (and thus no royalties to Nintendo), is sold at a loss or break even, garners no income from a subscription service (e.g., PS+), and does everything worse than the competition?

There isn't one, which is probably why the Wii U will be Nintendo's last home system. Probably.

 

[CassSept]

It's that simple guys, pack it up!

By the way, how am I supposed to play ZombiU, W101, Rayman etc without the game pad?

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=512140
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=733045

 

[casmith07]

$250M in losses or more. In one fiscal year.

Bruh.

 

[TreasureHunterG]

So to me, Nintendo's #1 challenge going forward is becoming a more global company.

Yep. This should be their main priority. They are in practice a global company but their management act like they're not. Their current japanese centric direction is taking them nowhere.

 

[BowieZ]

No you cant. The gamepad is used in single player.

You can because you already have a GamePad, is what I meant very few people would hypothetically find themselves in a situation where they own those old launch games with no GamePad - although one could be bought separately.

 

[Rizsparky]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=512140
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=733045

Yeah, that still doesnt explain how we would be able to play Zombi U without a gamepad.

 

[KennyLinder]

Yep. This should be their main priority. They are in practice a global company but their management act like they're not. Their current japanese centric direction is taking them nowhere.

Yep, look at Sony. An American took charge of the PlayStation project and (so far) has turned things around.

 

[Sneds]

How about reducing the price of the gamepad itself? Why is it have to be so damned expensive anyway.

Yeah. The should still try to make the console cheaper all round.

I think whatever Nintendo do, Wii U sales aren't going to improve significantly. They should try and lose as little money on the Wii U as they can while still supporting it and plan for a major overhaul of the way the company operates.

 

[SmokedMeat]

Ok, so we kill the gamepad. Now we're left with a 32GB system on par with last gen consoles, and a bleak future of dismal third party support. You think consumers are going to sign up for this?

 

[gutterboy44]

Wow. GAF definitely saw this coming when the delirious 9 million Wii U forecast was set but I didn't think everything was going to be this bad for them. Any hope with the whole China thing?

 

[Relaxed Muscle]

Revising forecasts
This revision should have definitely occurred last quarter. Most analysis observed at the time that failing to revise the forecast was asinine as it was obvious they wouldn't hit their targets. Even noting that the holiday quarter is by far the biggest sales driver, when you're half-way through the year and less than 10% of the way towards your expected forecast and nothing that would materially change the forecast during the holiday quarter, it's time to revise. In the last quarter, Nintendo had Pikmin 3 and TW101's second quarters and Super Mario 3d World. There was no reason to assume based on past sales that 3d World would have sold materially better than NSMBU. Donkey Kong Country was delayed to cover gaps in the release calendar, which is sort of shocking in and of itself. So either way, every single person here would have told you the 9 million wasn't going to happen. I had expected a revision to 4-4.5 million prior to now--was it just a case of Nintendo preferring to do one enormous guidance revision rather than two smaller ones?

Iwata
It's not clear to me that Iwata stepping down would be productive. Who would you replace him with within Japan? It's true Nintendo could easily poach a GREE executive, but I think the single biggest structural problem Nintendo faces is a misunderstanding of the global market, and while pivoting towards (not entirely!) Japanese mobile concerns might help make investors feel better, I don't think it's a long-term solution to Nintendo's woes.

Home market
- Short term Wii U: Wii U is not going to reach any kind of lofty goals. As a result, it makes sense to concede this instead of stringing people along by saying "We expect <our next title> to help significantly drive hardware". I don't think there's a need to kill the system and I don't think any new system being launched would work any better. I also don't think dropping the GamePad would really benefit them. I don't think a price drop would materially change demand at this point. So I think set modest forecasts, work on software that's going to sell big, work on global instead of Japanese-focused software, use outsourcing to plug holes in the release calendar. In terms of third parties, it's a write-off at this point. I'd focus on securing Wii U's niche for stuff like Skylanders, LEGO games, dancing and fitness games. It's not a good sign to me that Just Dance is still mostly on Wii, and that Xbox 360 and Xbox One appear to have inherited the rest of the audience rather than Wii U. If the war chest is big enough to start working to secure
- Medium term Wii U: Try to pump internal money into aggressive cost-reduction plans on Wii U. I recognize Nintendo's in a worse position to cost-reduce than Sony or Microsoft because they have no internal production at all, relatively little engineering capacity, and lower scale with fabrication plants. But I still think they could probably reduce cost quickly if they made it priority 1. It's better to be in a situation where you're selling 5 million units of hardware a year but making a profit on each. This also takes some pressure off software performance.
- Long term Home Market: Consider not replacing the console. Sunset it within 5 years of release or so (end of 2017). Look to low cost, globally focused solutions for future hardware. Look into how network services are driving profit for a lot of companies. Look at the needs of individual markets beyond Japan. Don't make anything a hardware design priority that won't lead to global success--"it fits well in Japanese living rooms" is absolutely not something that matters at all. If hardware doesn't make sense, don't do hardware. It's healthier to have a company that shrinks but is more sustainable than preserving the size of the company at all costs.

Portable Market
- Short term 3DS: Given that most of the 3DS' major software has been depleted, much of it at a significant decline from DS highs (although not all! Yay Fire Emblem!), I think the short term plan means recognizing that 2012 and 2013 were high years and there's no immediate strategy to replicate them through software. Getting software costs down so that there's a broad reason for buy-in is probably a good move. $20 and $10 software would really help the hardware pick up, I think. Make software as easy to buy as possible.
- Medium term 3DS: Start moving internal teams into smaller, more agile configurations making quickly iterated games. This pays dividends in two ways. First, if you ever do need the escape hatch for Mobile, your teams are more ready. Second, you can lower effective software pricepoints to be able to compete with and head off Mobile. You should also get used to the mobile style of releasing a product and constantly updating it in order to keep attention on it.
- Long term Portables: Future hardware will probably need to be always-connected (both for software benefits and for hardware usage benefits). If this means you need to make a phone, then you need to learn how to make a phone and how to partner with various countries telecom firms. If this means it's not a phone but something more like a tablet, then your OS and software situation will be way behind and you should have a plan for catching up that relies on actually understanding competitors. If this means getting out of hardware, your company will get massively smaller and you should be prepared for that.

Overall company
- Short term overall company: Transfer as much power as possible out of Japan to make the company more global. More autonomy for regional divisions. Look to Sony and Sega as model companies that are still very Japanese but that have recognize that this market sector might benefit from control and power being vested outside Japan. Start looking at what competitors are doing, because when you're an iconoclast and successful everyone loves it, but when you're an iconoclast and failing and confused as to why, everyone else has an answer for you. What are other companies doing that you're not? What assumptions have you internalized?
- Medium term overall company: Minimize burn rate so that the loss of the hardware business would not cause as much of an immediate system shock or massive layoffs. Lower software prices to reflect structural erosion in value of software.


I think investors want to see mobile, rightly or wrongly. I think it would be an error if Nintendo became a MORE Japanese company by eventually giving in to investor demands by focusing on GREE type situations. I think it'd be more sustainable to operate on a more global basis. I think if they do choose to participate in Mobile, it shouldn't be in the extremely limited Japanese context. But I think being able to see with a more global horizon requires a more global company. So to me, Nintendo's #1 challenge going forward is becoming a more global company.

Listen to the mad man, indeed.

To me those all the things Iwata should have done when the Wii was plummeting in it's last 2 years and DS Software sales in the west started showing symptoms of what's happening now.

I don't like the idea that Iwata couldn't do anything: between changing drastically the directio to a focused japanese mobile company to the actual, almost inert, situation of not changing your habits and not recognizing how much the market changed, there's this middle point in which Nintendo could have started moving.

It might be too late, but the sooner they start the better.

 

[KoopaTheCasual]

So the Wii U being $300 with Gamepad doesn't work but Xbone being $500 with Kinect does? I'm just really against the idea that the Gamepad or lack thereof would have change the fortunes of the the Wii U. Nintendo screwed the pooch on marketing, branding and there horrible relationship with third parties. I would even throw their bad relationship with Amazon in the mix. The Gamepad is a non-factor compared all the other things they did wrong.

The Xbone is still profiting on every unit sold. Let's say that everything was the same (shitty marketing and all) for the WiiU and the gamepad became an optional peripheral instead. They'd probably only be selling marginally better, but we wouldn't be seeing billions of losses that may very well cost Iwata his job (which I think would be a terrible decision, since Iwata has done a lot more good than bad for the company).

You need to think of things realistically. A marketing campaign now for a product that 1. Is still burned by 'it's for kids' stigma 2. Has been on the market collecting dust, would not work at all without some major rebranding (like Sony did with Playstation 3 --> PS3). The campaign also doesn't mean shit if they're still losing money on each console, and the software attach rate is horrible. The only way to realistically get in the black for the WiiU soon, is to halt production on the gamepad, and sell it as a peripheral.

You can't have your cake and eat it too. I like Iwata, I want him to stay on top, and if that means sacrificing a bad hardware decision to save the company's margins, so be it. What I don't want to see is them continuing to lose money and then boot Iwata in rage, only to realize they have no one better suited to run a company like Nintendo.

 

[Interfectum]

Ok, so we kill the gamepad. Now we're left with a 32GB system on par with last gen consoles, and a bleak future of dismal third party support. You think consumers are going to sign up for this?

With the gamepad you are left with the same thing only at a $100 more.

Personally I don't think consumers are going to sign up at all for Wii U. I think the market has already made it's decision.

 

[BruceLeeRoy]

It's that simple guys, pack it up!

By the way, how am I supposed to play ZombiU, W101, Rayman etc without the game pad?

It would be so easy to remap those games to not utilize the controller. I really didn't like playing 101 with the gamepad either. I would try and do the swipes on the screen but the joystick was so much more consistent.

With the gamepad you are left with the same thing only at a $100 more.

Personally I don't think consumers are going to sign up at all for Wii U. I think the market has already made it's decision.

A 199 SMG3 machine would be pretty tempting for the market I think. I agree that overall they are never saving this system.

 

[KennyLinder]

Yeah, that still doesnt explain how we would be able to play Zombi U without a gamepad.

Would there be many complaints if you couldn't?

 

[Relaxed Muscle]

It's that simple guys, pack it up!

By the way, how am I supposed to play ZombiU, W101, Rayman etc without the game pad?

You can't. In the same way you can't play kinect games without kinect.

The Wii U pad should be still avaliable but to buy separetly.

 

[Stumpokapow]

tehrik,
I think you've 100% identified a lot of major issues that people here miss. Getting rid of Iwata definitely means shifting the executive pool more towards Japanese mobile. Based on who Nintendo's investors are and what Iwata's management vision is, you're 100% right there. And I think you're also correct to note that Wii U's failure is small fry compared with structural challenges facing the 3DS and software value perception.

Where we differ is that your strategy seems to have them focusing MORE on Japan while mine favours focusing LESS on Japan. I don't think your strategy is non-viable, though, just not where I'd personally take things. It'll be interesting to see how it goes. I'm also more bullish on them eventually transitioning into a smaller, software-focused role than you are.

 

[Shengar]

Wow. GAF definitely saw this coming when the delirious 9 million Wii U forecast was set but I didn't think everything was going to be this bad for them. Any hope with the whole China thing?

China wouldn't give a fuck on traditional console that couldn't play pirated game. That's how it is, even for the rest (east and southeast) Asia except Japan.

 

[DieH@rd]

Bububut Nintendo never lose money!

That is some hardcore lowering right there. Wii U the millstone around Nintendo's neck.

They lost money for 2 years, and they are now aiming for third.

 

[ViewtifulJC]

guys

Nothing is saving the Wii U

Not price drops

Not dropping the Gamepad

Not Super Smash Mario Zelda Kart U

none of these short term solutions

its done

 

[Relaxed Muscle]

tehrik,
I think you've 100% identified a lot of major issues that people here miss. Getting rid of Iwata definitely means shifting the executive pool more towards Japanese mobile. Based on who Nintendo's investors are and what Iwata's management vision is, you're 100% right there. And I think you're also correct to note that Wii U's failure is small fry compared with structural challenges facing the 3DS and software value perception.

Where we differ is that your strategy seems to have them focusing MORE on Japan while mine favours focusing LESS on Japan. I don't think your strategy is non-viable, though, just not where I'd personally take things. It'll be interesting to see how it goes. I'm also more bullish on them eventually transitioning into a smaller, software-focused role than you are.

The question is: Can Iwata do all the necessary changes before he's replaced and we end with a NintendoGREE? I really doubt it, somehow.

 

[Triggerhappytel]

I'm going to be one of those guys who throws their hat into the "Nintendo must go third party" ring. Nobody buys a Nintendo system for the hardware. (You could argue Wii, but the remote gimmick wore off quickly, and is the main reason I was not interested in Skyward Sword).

I would love to play Zelda and Mario on a PS4 and would happily pay £40 each for them. But those games are not worth the entry fee of a whole new console (and don't argue, the sales numbers agree with me!)

They make no profit on their hardware sales currently as well. Why stick with your unprofitable Wii U with a small install base when you can have a huge PS4 and Xbox One crowd and sell your software on those as well (which is where Ninty makes their money). I seriously do not understand the argument against it.

My two cents.

I do agree with the people though who suggest that Nintendo's quality control would drop if they didn't develop their own hardware. I think the best thing if they go down that road might be to partner with another hardware creator, whether that's Sony, MS or Apple. It would have to be a mutually beneficial partnership though; I can't see Nintendo and Apple fitting together very well as iHardware isn't really gaming hardware in the way Ninty usually develop on, I don't think as a traditional Japanese developer Nintendo would want to partner with MS, and although I think Sony would be their best choice I'm not entirely sure Ninty's games would be a natural home on Sony hardware. Although a combination of Vita and 3DS is quite an awesome, dizzying prospect!

 

[Wolfgunblood Garopa]

Ok, so we kill the gamepad. Now we're left with a 32GB system on par with last gen consoles, and a bleak future of dismal third party support. You think consumers are going to sign up for this?

It's too late to remove the Gamepad, of course that's not the answer.

The mistakes they made can't be undone or fixed, you can't just remove the gamepad now. It's over.

The gamepad was a cascading mistake. This was all completely foreseeable and preventable, which is why this is all Iwata's fault.

 

[KoopaTheCasual]

guys

Nothing is saving the Wii U

Not price drops

Not dropping the Gamepad

Not Super Smash Mario Zelda Kart U

none of these short term solutions

its done

I'm not even trying to save the WiiU. That girl is done for all intents. I'm just saying ways Iwata could keep his job. Because if Iwata goes, I feel like they'd begin shifting some resources to mobile to recoup costs. And fuck that noise.

 

[Rizsparky]

Would there be many complaints if you couldn't?

None whatsoever, although I'm pretty sure Ubisoft woudnt really want to shell out for an expensive 'off TV' patch.

 

[ElectricBlanketFire]

Hey guys I just woke up. What's going...

Oh...

OHHHHHH....

 

[Kimppis]

Any hope with the whole China thing?

Well, probably not, atleast in the short-term. The market and potential is naturally massive, but I don't think the Chinese care about consoles at all. There's no "console gaming culture" and I don't know how's that going to change.

 

[gutterboy44]

I think Nintendo should dip their toe in mobile games by releasing some older Pokemon games. $5, people would go nuts. I would even buy a Pokemon game at that price. Haven't played one since the original Red but it would be fun. I can't imagine it wouldn't be a net profit and since it would be the older Pokemon games it wouldn't cannibalize their 3DS sales.

Edit: Oof, Nintendo stock down -%22.31 already (-34.25 points)

 

[Ecotic]

This news was dumped on a Friday afternoon after the markets closed there, but the Nintendo ADRs trading on the NYSE are down almost 17% this morning.

(Edit: Now almost 18%)

 

[obeythed1734]

That missing Pokemon Bank income.

[Laughs]

 

[MaDKaT]

Let the Wii U die, move current projects to next gen console(3rd party), re-focus on mobile(2/3DS) and move some legacy stuff to phones and tablets. Profit as much as possible and maybe compete in the console market space next gen.

 

[orioto]

So i wrote that for the other thread that was closed... (about how Nintendo could quickly change the situation)

There is still the VR ...

Nintendo is good at doing good and going mainstream with cheap. Oculus is still beta, Sony and Microsoft are slow, but we do know vr has a great potential. Especially, this is a thing that would create curiosity among the male demographic that don't want nintendo consoles anymore.

Of course, it's a little late if they have to start from scratch, but what if they managed to have some R&D going for years, since the VB and even the rumored on.

I'm not sure this is possible, and i started a thread some weeks ago that was ignored, but my question was.. How would Nintendo technically release something in the line of the current oculus beta, for not too much. They already have the whole Wii tech for motion captors etc.. Now what they need is great screen, and knowing the kind of thing Nintendo does, they would go for a big big concession to reach their goal. For exemple, what if they can find a really bad lcd tech, that has a bad contrast, but allow them to have not too much screendoor,a great fov, and response time ? Not sure there is something like that of course..

Now, the nice thing is they could release an add on, maybe for 150 euros, for the WiiU, then also a gametab less, 300-350 wiiu vr.

But i'm dreaming this is probably not possible, and they would have to port some ngc titles in the rush to begin with.

Yeah this is not possible probably, but the VR thing would give back some curiosity vibes to Nintendo, at least. The idea is simple. Nintendo cannot release a zelda that is, in term of graphics, scale, production value, modern enough so non nintendo fans feels they have to play it, cause it's where the real deal is. BUT, with VR, they could give their ips something that everyone would like to see. Most people would feel a vr twillight princess (reworked obviously) is more next gen than a tesselated Skyrim with 4k textures.

More realistically, hurry with that cheap perfect portable with great control AND a video out! It can really be what everyone would love to have. Basically a more powerfull 3ds with one only screen and video out. Except they cannot do that cause they cannot create enough soft to support a new portable, so they would need to make it a 3ds plus i guess. But great control + good online + japanese support + more generous virtual console + tv out can be the surprise perfect product everyone would want.

 

[FourMyle]

Wow, the 3DS is doing absolutely nothing for them. The Wii U is a blackhole of profits.

 

[Majukun]

do you think i'ts possible for nintendo to become a publisher like EA and activision?do they have enough money?
i think there's space for that in the japanese market,that seems to lack a "big publisher",especially for what concerns the publication of japanese lesser titles in the west or the publication of western games in japan.

 

[CassSept]

Yeah, that still doesnt explain how we would be able to play Zombi U without a gamepad.

Tough luck. This and Nintendoland* are the only two games that really used GamePad, and the only two on the horizon that will truly require GamePad.

I like the thing, but from average consumer's viewpoint it's a bad product, thus making WiiU an even worse proposition than it already is. It's not worth dragging the console down for 2 launch games.

Nintendo themselves talked about dropping GamePad late into development of WiiIU. It's nowhere near as integral to the console as, say, Wiimote to Wii.

*well, technically I guess there was Game & Wario but everyone forgot about the game the moment it launched, pretty useless game

 

[Bisnic]

I don't regret buying the Wii U, but it seems it will be another "Nintendo games only" console from them for me. Again. The few third party games available on it are badly optimized from what I saw, and I don't expect it to change since they'll put all their best resources on PS4/Xbox One.

I really wish Nintendo would stop making underpowered home consoles. At least, they would get some support if they made something decent, like in the Gamecube days. The console wasn't selling very well, but at least the support was better than today because the games were easy to port, not like today where they have to downgrade everything.

 

[CSX]

Iwata wont leave. Mario kart wont "save" the Wii U. I always thought that the kart games were strongest on handhelds anyway. I wonder if they do something drastic and maybe cancel 3ds relase of Smash just to see if that will boost Wii U sales. Definitely wont raise it from the dead but it be interesting

But that wont happen. The ship will continue to sink and the captain wants to stay for the ride

 

[zomgbbqftw]

NTDOY down 19 points so far today. :O

 

[Somnid]

do you think i'ts possible for nintendo to become a publisher like EA and activision?do they have enough money?
i think there's space for that in the japanese market,that seems to lack a "big publisher",especially for what concerns the publication of japanese lesser titles in the west or the publication of western games in japan.

I'm not sure I follow. Nintendo is the biggest of all publishers, so big that were they 3rd party we'd speculate about whether or not they would make their own hardware. But publishing small Japanese titles is not really for a large company like them, that's for the Nippon Ichi's and Xseeds of the world.

 

[Deleted member 752119]

I don't think it's anywhere near doom and gloom for Nintendo. Just for the Wii U.

Nintendo is sitting on mountains of cash after the raging success of the DS and Wii. Losses are never good, and the Wii U is a definite failure. But there not at the point where they have no choice but to go third party. They're not in the situation Sega was. Sega had an ok success with the Gensis, but the Saturn and Dreamcast sucked in sales and they never had a successful portable. So when the Dreamcast tanked, they had no cash reserves and were done.

Nintendo just needs to figure out how to best ride out the Wii U for another couple years, make as much money as they can selling first party software on it to keep losses as contained as possible, and take the time to really plan out what they want to do with there next hardware rollout. I'd still suggest the above. Consider some portable/console hybrid if they can get it out for $250 or less. If not, keep the handheld at $150, the console at $200 and keep them on the same architecture so every game can be ported to both platforms so they're not splitting their development resources across two platforms. Think of the library either the 3DS or Wii U would have if every first party game across both was playable on either platform.

The other major thing that's needed is a huge change in leadership. People like Iwata and Miyamota are just too old and out of touch with the current gaming market. They need much younger blood at the top making decisions if they're every going to get back on track in the game industry.

As for the mobile stuff, I would expect to see a lot of ports since most of their games wouldn't work well with touch screen controls--other than some DS games, things like Tetris Attack/Planet Puzzle League etc. I'd expect to see them make casual games (think simple stuff like Angry Birds, Candy Crush etc.) featuring their characters. They're dumb to not do so as those games don't cost much to develop and would likely sell very well as Nintendo games are safe bets for parents to let their kids buy on their phones, tablets and iPods.

 

[Koppai]

Nintendo cannot kill off the Wii U unless they risk burning everyone who already invested in it. If they did that then the majority would probably ignore the next system at launch just in case Nintendo decides to burn them again.

I'm a little disappointed but as long as Nintendo gets everything out for the system that they have already revealed I won't be too sad.

There is no way Nintendo would cancel the 3DS version of Smash Bros. to push sales of the Wii U version, I don't even think Smash will save Wii U at this point.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

Yeah, that still doesnt explain how we would be able to play Zombi U without a gamepad.

Is Zombie U, W101, or Rayman compatibility really something that Nintendo should be concerned with, going forward in 2014-2015? You're talking about a handful of bargain bin bombs (no offense to their creators) versus losing hundreds of millions of dollars.

If their only rationale for keeping the gamepad bundled is "we need to keep 100% compatibility with these games that have cumulatively sold 300k in a year", that's a horrible sense of priority. If losing the pad is the easiest course to profitability, you have to swallow that pill.

 

[Goldenmoney]

This news was dumped on a Friday afternoon after the markets closed there, but the Nintendo ADRs trading on the NYSE are down almost 17% this morning.

(Edit: Now almost 18%)

Holy crap.

Shareholders have to pissed right now. This could be an excellent buying opportunity however.

 

[ZeDorguinha]

wiiu is a dead horse...

 

[BowieZ]

NTDOY down 19 points so far today. :O

And now we play the Nintendo Direct waiting game!

Soon, surely?

 

[pulsemyne]

I do wonder how much of this loss is down to R&D. It is rumour that nintendo settled on a new System on Chip design for something at the end of 2013. Handheld or home machine? No one is too sure. R&D can cost an awful lot though.

 

[Shepard]

That's a good thing. Nintendo has been making some awful decisions for a while. Hopefully, this will be enough of a reality shock to wake them up and make them a bit more competitive against Microsoft and Sony, which are miles ahead.

 

[Lunar15]

Nintendo to only make smartphone games from here on out.

 

[Jethro]

Glad that I sold my shares last week...