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[Randolph Freelander]

You guys forget that the vast majority of all of these losses from the Wii U, not the 3DS.

I'd say the 3DS is doing better than the DS was doing at this point, but I don't have numbers with me. Anyone know for sure?

Not even remotely in the same ballpark as DS.

Edit: Just on a fiscal year basis, in the 3rd full FY for DS, it shifted 30 million consoles (LTD 70) and 185 million units of software (LTD 369). 3DS will be 13.5 million (LTD 44.6) and 66 million (LTD 161) if they hit their estimates.

 

[Shaqiri1287]

You guys forget that the vast majority of all of these losses from the Wii U, not the 3DS.

I'd say the 3DS is doing better than the DS was doing at this point, but I don't have numbers with me. Anyone know for sure?

It sold five million less than Nintendo projected.

The only thing keeping Nintendo alive is running out of gas.

 

[RobFox64tm]

I would honestly rather see Nintendo die off entirely than to see a lot of the suggestions in this thread come to fruition. A F2P, smartphone/tablet, touchscreen only Nintendo would just be the salt in the wound for people who actually still appreciate the company for what they continue to do so right: making quality software. The solution isn't for Nintendo to jump on those trends, but instead leverage them to lead people to what Nintendo has to offer. Even under the gun, I don't see how Iwata is going to accomplish that, sadly.

 

[Shikamaru Ninja]

Nintendo is already working on it's second F2P game. Darumeshi Sports for 3DS was first, and now Steel Diver: Subwars.

 

[Fourth Storm]

Wow, from 55B profit to a loss. I misread the title and though it said 25B profit. The Wii U is the bulk of their net loss?

Actually, they're claiming deferred taxes or something like that is the reason.

 

[PotionBleue]

Actually, they're claiming deferred taxes or something like that is the reason.

The “unexpected price slash” of the Wii U was also mentioned iirc.

 

[RobFox64tm]

You guys forget that the vast majority of all of these losses from the Wii U, not the 3DS.

I'd say the 3DS is doing better than the DS was doing at this point, but I don't have numbers with me. Anyone know for sure?

It's not, but it's doing a fair job in the face of tablet and smartphone gaming anyway. If Wii U wasn't doing so poorly, the 3DS probably wouldn't be as scrutinized nearly as much as it is now. It was the best selling game hardware in 2013 after all, which isn't exactly a bad thing.

 

[Anticitizen One]

I honesty don't think it's been a joke for a while.

It was never a joke. This has been a long time coming.

 

[nhlducks35]

You guys forget that the vast majority of all of these losses from the Wii U, not the 3DS.

I'd say the 3DS is doing better than the DS was doing at this point, but I don't have numbers with me. Anyone know for sure?

wrong thread lol

Edit since I already posted here:


HARDWARE

FY1:
GBA: 1.07m
NDS: 5.27m
3DS: 3.61m

FY2:
GBA: 17.09m
NDS: 11.46m
3DS: 13.53m

FY3:
GBA: 15.65m
NDS: 23.56m
3DS: 13.95m

FY4:
GBA: 17.59m
NDS: 30.31m
3DS: 13.5m (forecast)

FY5:
GBA: 15.4m
NDS: 31.18m

SOFTWARE

FY1:
GBA: 2.73m
NDS: 10.49m
3DS: 9.43m

FY2:
GBA: 47.05m
NDS: 49.95m
3DS: 36.00m

FY3:
GBA: 59.12m
NDS: 123.55m
3DS: 49.61m

FY4:
GBA: 74.89m
NDS: 185.62m
3DS: 66m (forecast)

FY5:
GBA: 84.57m
NDS: 197.31m

.

 

[tehrik-e-insaaf]

I like your posts, but how to you get people to want to carry around two devices? Or buy their kids 2 devices? And no, a gaming handheld is no replacement for a phone or a tablet.

Honestly that's why I think trying to add lots of F2P content to the 3DS is a bad idea - the reality is that the family audience that made Nintendo rich don't want to carry around multiple devices - and that's why Nintendo needs to build their own 7 inch tablet to compete directly with Apple - but on the low-end and with great ideas such as Streetpass and Miiverse built into the core experience setting it apart from Apple's offering. It can also have built-in Wii-Mote like functionality so that people can use it as a pointing device for example.

An entry-level tablet with proprietary Nintendo games for kids priced at 250 dollars or two for 450 dollars - parents would buy it for their kids instead of buying iPad Minis for 400 and Nintendo could rake in profit on each device along with profiting from the release of a tentpole game or two every year. It also gives Nintendo an opportunity to uniquely target an audience with IP that they have sitting around like Brain Training that really doesn't have a place on the 3DS anymore. They can also freely leverage F2P in new and interesting ways and push the other exclusive functionality (like Nintendo animation or their partnership with NicoNico).

Nintendo could also repurpose franchises like Wii Fit, Wii Sports, Wii Party, etc. and actually find a real audience for those games on the tablet (rebranded obviously) instead of this miserable effort to attract two totally separate audiences with the Wii U right now.

Nintendo also doesn't need to spend a lot of time on third party support either - they can literally get hundreds of developers signed up and then pick and choose the ones they want that add to their device. It would be a device that would completely carve out the tablet market in a way that really hasn't been done before. For all third party games they sell they can allow people to access that content on Android devices via eShop - but leave their own titles exclusive to their tablet platform.

The way I see 3DS and Wii U playing out is that that business eventually merges and they release a successor handheld that is just a Game Pad but plays primarily premium content for the Nintendo enthusiasts and streams to the television.

 

[SlipperySlope]

Iwata's mistake was making systems that were unnecessarily expensive. 3D and the Gamepad were unnecessary.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

It's not, but it's doing a fair job in the face of tablet and smartphone gaming anyway. If Wii U wasn't doing so poorly, the 3DS probably wouldn't be as scrutinized nearly as much as it is now. It was the best selling game hardware in 2013 after all, which isn't exactly a bad thing.

Yes it would, or at least it should, because it is consistently falling short of expectations. It is not delivering the type of returns that it needs.

 

[AstroNut325]

.

Thank you. That one post puts to rest the notion that Nintendo is "fine" due to the 3DS.

 

[Sneds]

Do people really buy iPad minis for their kids? That seems crazy to me.

 

[malfcn]

Can they sell their brand new building?

 

[vinnygambini]

Can they sell their brand new building?

No. But they can sell their position in the Seattle Mariners (55%) while the team is still valuable.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

Do people really buy iPad minis for their kids? That seems crazy to me.

Well, I know my 8 year old niece got a Kindle Fire HD for Christmas. I think she had a DS a few years ago.

 

[darkside31337]

Do people really buy iPad minis for their kids? That seems crazy to me.

They buy new iPads for themselves and hand down their older stuff to their kids. At least thats what everybody I know end up doing.

No. But they can sell their position in the Seattle Mariners (55%) while the team is still valuable.

That ship sailed a long, long time ago.

 

[mrpeabody]

In all honesty, I think this time they mean it. In the sense: for the first time, Iwata himself stated that they will change radically. And stated that their current way of doing things (in the home market, looking at the prices selected) don't work. And saying they're looking for mobile as a tool for helping their console sales, while recognising doing "Mario on iOS! $$$$!" is not what to do. It's different from what happened in the last quarters, it's a direct statement that they will change their business structure. They already started changing their development structure, but this is one of the other aspects they need to address. Hearing, for the first time, something like that from the man himself gives me a bit of hope. Hopefully, he has good plans, this time.

What I hear in Iwata's recent statements, including today's, is an effort to placate investors while changing as little as possible. "Leveraging smart devices" by releasing little marketing apps does nothing to address any of their problems.

When I read tehrik's analysis and his suggestion that Nintendo release their own $200 tablet which offers a whole range of of Nintendo-branded services, I get excited. Because that is a strategy, based in reality, that could work. It's not a sure thing, but it has a chance of success.

I want to hear a strategy from Iwata that starts from a recognition of reality -- not just of their FY13 sales, but of the market as a whole. It hasn't happened yet.

 

[vinnygambini]

That ship sailed a long, long time ago.

I beg to differ.

http://www.forbes.com/teams/seattle-mariners/

 

[RobFox64tm]

Yes it would, or at least it should, because it is consistently falling short of expectations. It is not delivering the type of returns that it needs.

Maybe, but I kind of see the 3DS as naysayers "stirring the pot", so to speak. Not to say that I think the 3DS is keeping Nintendo's head above water or anything, because it's clearly not. I still give Nintendo credit for improving the 3DS's situation though, because at the outset it was looking pretty bleak. I understand it's not meeting expectations, but I can't get behind the argument that it's doing badly when I think of how things could have been for the system. Just look at the Vita for a worse case scenario. Whether or not Nintendo can continue on with portables without the market continuing on its downward trend, I don't know, but I don't think anyone is going to look back on the system and be able to label it as a failure.

 

[Anticitizen One]

Don't worry guys there making a zelda themed dynasty warriors game. That will totally be a system seller and not end up performing like Other M. No Sirree Bob.

 

[jcm]

No. But they can sell their position in the Seattle Mariners (55%) while the team is still valuable.

They don't need cash. They have a ton of money. What they need is a new business strategy.

 

[vinnygambini]

They don't need cash. They have a ton of money. What they need is a new business strategy.

Never said the opposite. See post history in this thread one will notice that I have mentioned they need a new business strategy.

 

[Ryu751]

Wow that gamepad was a massive mistake. They should have just done a quick cheap WiiHd or something completely new. I am very interested in their next console. Desperate Nintendo is best Nintendo. Hugs my Gamecube.

 

[li bur]

Well this is bad for nintendo. Now I understand the recent hike in nintendo stock price, I do believe several big investor wants out of nintendo.

Nintendo Phone with android OS incoming?

 

[Relaxed Muscle]

Don't worry guys there making a zelda themed dynasty warriors game. That will totally be a system seller and not end up performing like Other M. No Sirree Bob.

That game is meant to fill gaps in their lineup and library, since those collaborations is the only way to get some third party support.

 

[Skyzard]

It's the successor to the 3DS that will be the issue there (hand-me-down phones and cheap ios games gobbling up their main demographic) but with the Wii U, if they don't want to go third-party next-generation, they'll need to put together at least 2 more games (not far from each other and with massive advertising) where:

1- the quality is just out of this world. The Nintendo games of our dreams. I absolutely agreed that next 3D Mario should have focused on including multiplayer, which they did it, but they let everything else slip in the face of problems with the camera. Easy way out is not out of this world quality. They want us to pay a premium for the console, the games need to be the very definition of premium.

2- make much better use of the gamepad with their games. Not touch-button triggers but whole games that revolve around the gamepad.

3- like 85% focus on family games. Especially with the advertising. No metroid. No f-zero yet [actually, F-zero too]. Maybe Starfox but bascially something new that the family can play together. It's the family system. We were sold on the Wii, and then we weren't, now we need to be really sold on the Wii U that there is something that the family can play and will last a decent amount of the gen.
Things like Mario Party but even more appealing. Nintendo Party Board Game Suite. Super interactive, lots of use of the gamepad, feels next-gen, lots of quality and content there and actually looks fun and well done (NOT SHIT, not a single mini game should be shit at this point, it's not THAT hard). & Kids can also play online with their friends (safely/protected), but local play is there too of course.

That's their main advantage. Family appeal. They're losing it and it's not really because of LBP, Tearaway and Puppeteer, but you can see people are trying to cover things for everyone too - like MS's awesome new PvZ shooter.

Nintendo need to be making the Banjos of 3d gaming again too.

Economy is tough, people can't shell out for everything like they used to, especially when they know what's up.

Nintendo HD please.

I don't think Smash and Mario have as good as a chance in next-gen year but it's doubtful that support will be slowing for those consoles.

 

[evacs]

Evidently Iwata-land and the real world diverge quite sharply.

 

[QaaQer]

Honestly that's why I think trying to add lots of F2P content to the 3DS is a bad idea - the reality is that the family audience that made Nintendo rich don't want to carry around multiple devices - and that's why Nintendo needs to build their own 7 inch tablet to compete directly with Apple - but on the low-end and with great ideas such as Streetpass and Miiverse built into the core experience setting it apart from Apple's offering. It can also have built-in Wii-Mote like functionality so that people can use it as a pointing device for example.

An entry-level tablet with proprietary Nintendo games for kids priced at 250 dollars or two for 450 dollars - parents would buy it for their kids instead of buying iPad Minis for 400 and Nintendo could rake in profit on each device along with profiting from the release of a tentpole game or two every year. It also gives Nintendo an opportunity to uniquely target an audience with IP that they have sitting around like Brain Training that really doesn't have a place on the 3DS anymore. They can also freely leverage F2P in new and interesting ways and push the other exclusive functionality (like Nintendo animation or their partnership with NicoNico).

Nintendo also doesn't need to spend a lot of time on third party support either - they can literally get hundreds of developers signed up and then pick and choose the ones they want that add to their device. It would be a device that would completely carve out the tablet market in a way that really hasn't been done before. For all third party games they sell they can allow people to access that content on Android devices via eShop - but leave their own titles exclusive to their tablet platform.

The way I see 3DS and Wii U playing out is that that business eventually merges and they release a successor handheld that is just a Game Pad but plays primarily premium content for the Nintendo enthusiasts and streams to the television.

Unless it also offers everything else that a phone or tablet does, it won't work. People buy those things because they have a software/media ecosystem as well as hundreds of thousands of apps, and in the case of phones, the ability to make calls etc. The amount of work and expertise and agreements that have gone into making iOS/itunes, and to a lesser extent android/Play what they are today cannot be underestimated. For example, even the mighty Microsoft is paying OEMs 2.6 billion this year just to try to get them to make their phone/tablet stuff so they can get a foothold.

A nintendo tablet that just plays games is still just a gaming handheld.

 

[KageMaru]

Sad to see Nintendo in this state. Would love it if they were doing better, but they just made too many mistakes.

 

[tehrik-e-insaaf]

Unless it also offers everything else that a phone or tablet does, it won't work. People buy those things because they have a software/media ecosystem as well as hundreds of thousands of apps, and in the case of phones, the ability to make calls etc. The amount of work and expertise and agreements that have gone into making iOS/itunes, and to a lesser extent android/Play what they are today cannot be underestimated. For example, even the mighty Microsoft is paying OEMs 2.6 billion this year just to try to get them to make their phone/tablet stuff so they can get a foothold.

A nintendo tablet that just plays games is still just a gaming handheld.

Sorry if I wasn't clear (although I feel like I've clarified this a number of times now) - it would obviously be a multi-purpose device and have Android compatibility or at least be super easy to port apps to.

 

[James93]

For a company to cut estimates that huge as shocking. Stock dropped 17 percent today, and i would expect it to keep dropping till Satoru Iwata steps down. I would expect it to drop to 8-10 a share next week. I doubt you can get investors to support him any longer. I would hope the board and investors force him out, as I think he is to narrow minded to turn the company around. It seems he seems to still doubt the mobile platform. its simple put mario on IOS make tons of cash.

 

[jroc74]

This thread is funny to me because it depicts people who are reacting to Nintendo's lowered forecasts with shock, awe, like damn that's bad when it's no worse than how we already thought it was and we all pretty much knew Nintendo wasn't going to touch those original forecasts with a ten foot pole

with that said the 3DS numbers are a bit disappointing, I want to see the sales figures at the end of the financial year. If nothing else expect Nintendo to overcompensate with mad games and take the Wii U hit until next generation swings around

and I'm thinking that if something big doesn't happen this year you can expect a new CEO

This thread (and the others I see that popped up since I posted this morning)
just makes ppl look less anti Nintendo and when talking about Nintendo. Its more of an indirect way of saying I Told You So. Some of us just needed real info to go with the Nintendoomed talk. I honestly didnt think it was THIS bad tho. Damn. I see the other threads about Nintendo and Iwata and it really doesnt look good.

It's this FY so from March 2013 to March 2014.

Yea....trying to play catch up on this thread from this morning, I saw the earlier explanation after I posted. Thanks tho. Thread grew so much, trying to post without reading everything. My mistake.

I got some catching up to do.....

 

[QaaQer]

Sorry if I wasn't clear (although I feel like I've clarified this a number of times now) - it would obviously be a multi-purpose device and have Android compatibility or at least be super easy to port apps to.

Sorry, I must have missed that. It is similar to what people have been asking Sony to do with their phones/tablets.

 

[Ranger X]

So we are directly heading into one of those extremely rare years where Nintendo would end up in the red??

 

[Randolph Freelander]

So we are directly heading into one of those extremely rare years where Nintendo would end up in the red??

They're hitting the trifecta!

 

[A_Gorilla]

Can the Wii U match even Gamecube sales now, or has that ship already sailed?

 

[QaaQer]

Just to add a bit to the Nintendo Android tablet thing:

1) Why would developers develop for it instead just putting the games on Play/iOS? Why put in the extra work?

2) Why would anyone buy it if it didn't offer all the stuff other Android/iOS tablets offer, especially if they have already bought into one of the ecosystems?

3) How would Nintendo make any money off of it if they have to have a bunch of free/low-priced games and could not charge a premium for the hardware? The have to compete with low cost/subsidized Android tablets for the low end after all. Kindle Fire starts @ $139.

I'm not saying it is impossible, I'm just saying I believe it is impossible for a company like Nintendo to compete with Google, Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft in that space. I'd love to be proven wrong though.

 

[oneils]

Honestly that's why I think trying to add lots of F2P content to the 3DS is a bad idea - the reality is that the family audience that made Nintendo rich don't want to carry around multiple devices - and that's why Nintendo needs to build their own 7 inch tablet to compete directly with Apple - but on the low-end and with great ideas such as Streetpass and Miiverse built into the core experience setting it apart from Apple's offering. It can also have built-in Wii-Mote like functionality so that people can use it as a pointing device for example.

An entry-level tablet with proprietary Nintendo games for kids priced at 250 dollars or two for 450 dollars - parents would buy it for their kids instead of buying iPad Minis for 400 and Nintendo could rake in profit on each device along with profiting from the release of a tentpole game or two every year. It also gives Nintendo an opportunity to uniquely target an audience with IP that they have sitting around like Brain Training that really doesn't have a place on the 3DS anymore. They can also freely leverage F2P in new and interesting ways and push the other exclusive functionality (like Nintendo animation or their partnership with NicoNico).

Nintendo could also repurpose franchises like Wii Fit, Wii Sports, Wii Party, etc. and actually find a real audience for those games on the tablet (rebranded obviously) instead of this miserable effort to attract two totally separate audiences with the Wii U right now.

Nintendo also doesn't need to spend a lot of time on third party support either - they can literally get hundreds of developers signed up and then pick and choose the ones they want that add to their device. It would be a device that would completely carve out the tablet market in a way that really hasn't been done before. For all third party games they sell they can allow people to access that content on Android devices via eShop - but leave their own titles exclusive to their tablet platform.

The way I see 3DS and Wii U playing out is that that business eventually merges and they release a successor handheld that is just a Game Pad but plays primarily premium content for the Nintendo enthusiasts and streams to the television.

Interesting idea. A nintendo os would be kind of cool But I think they will need to allow $0.99 games on this thing, or it won't work. They'll also need to give devs the same access to the app store that apple does. I think that will be the hard part. The appeal of ios is the sheer amount of stuff on there (and not just games). I don't think nintendo can really compete with this. Nothing in their history gives any indication that they are even capable of something like this.

edit:

Sorry if I wasn't clear (although I feel like I've clarified this a number of times now) - it would obviously be a multi-purpose device and have Android compatibility or at least be super easy to port apps to.

that clarifies things. Do you think nintendo would ever allow shovelware on this platform? 99 cent apps and games? They just seem way too conservative to pull something like this off. I wonder just how much itunes/ios cost to develop.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

Can the Wii U match even Gamecube sales now, or has that ship already sailed?

Leaning towards not very likely.

This is what GameCube did by fiscal year:

3,800,000 (Partial)
5,760,000
5,020,000
3,920,000
2,350,000
730,000
160,000

And this is where Wii U is.

3,450,000 (Partial)
2,800,000 (Nintendo Forecast)

They'll be trailing by 3.3 million LTD over roughly the same span and, frankly, I don't know that they have any shot of getting to 5+ million next year to start cutting into the margin.

 

[fluffydelusions]

Do people really buy iPad minis for their kids? That seems crazy to me.

I imagine some do of course. I would but I'd pass down older stuff.

 

[Jazz-ism]

Leaning towards not very likely.

This is what GameCube did by fiscal year:

3,800,000 (Partial)
5,760,000
5,020,000
3,920,000
2,350,000
730,000
160,000

And this is where Wii U is.

3,450,000 (Partial)
2,800,000 (Nintendo Forecast)

They'll be trailing by 3.3 million LTD over roughly the same span and, frankly, I don't know that they have any shot of getting to 5+ million next year to start cutting into the margin.

i lold reading this

nintendo ges what they deserve. when you are japanese to a fault, deciding to ignore reality and not adapt to a changing market in order to be "unique," you get what you deserve. a company with a long history of subtle arrogance is finally starting to wake from the dream

 

[Relaxed Muscle]

Leaning towards not very likely.

This is what GameCube did by fiscal year:

3,800,000 (Partial)
5,760,000
5,020,000
3,920,000
2,350,000
730,000
160,000

And this is where Wii U is.

3,450,000 (Partial)
2,800,000 (Nintendo Forecast)

They'll be trailing by 3.3 million LTD over roughly the same span and, frankly, I don't know that they have any shot of getting to 5+ million next year to start cutting into the margin.

That's pretty brutal.

 

[A_Gorilla]

Leaning towards not very likely.

This is what GameCube did by fiscal year:

3,800,000 (Partial)
5,760,000
5,020,000
3,920,000
2,350,000
730,000
160,000

And this is where Wii U is.

3,450,000 (Partial)
2,800,000 (Nintendo Forecast)

They'll be trailing by 3.3 million LTD over roughly the same span and, frankly, I don't know that they have any shot of getting to 5+ million next year to start cutting into the margin.

Jesus, looks like they'll be lucky to get even half of the GC's total sales.

I have to wonder if Tom Kalinske or any of the other old suits from the Sega Genesis days are laughing right now...

 

[RevoDS]

For a company to cut estimates that huge as shocking. Stock dropped 17 percent today, and i would expect it to keep dropping till Satoru Iwata steps down. I would expect it to drop to 8-10 a share next week. I doubt you can get investors to support him any longer. I would hope the board and investors force him out, as I think he is to narrow minded to turn the company around. It seems he seems to still doubt the mobile platform. its simple put mario on IOS make tons of cash.

It's nowhere near that simple.

The budget difference between a mainline Mario game and that of your average iOS game is an order of magnitude. If they end up producing mobile games, they definitely still will need rather large budgets (not at the same levels as they do currently but still much higher than other mobile games) because if they start producing lower-quality material on other platforms, they'll just further damage what's left of their brand and be even worse off than they are currently.

That's the last thing Nintendo should want right now.

With your average iOS game being sold for less than $5, it's not at all clear whether Nintendo-caliber games can be profitable on mobile platforms, even factoring in the much higher potential market. If they try going much higher than that, say $20-30, they'll get laughed out of the App Store while users go play the dozens of free games out there.

That said, the stock probably won't have another dramatic move in the short term. The fact it only moved 17% while the company cut estimates between 40 and 70% means investors had long given up on trusting Nintendo's internal sales estimates and a large part of the miss was already priced in.

The question now simply becomes to know what the new Nintendo will look like and what kind of earnings potential it'll have compared to what it used to have. That's a complete wildcard right now, but what we do know is that losses will continue on for at least a year or two while the company prepares its new strategy, whatever it is.

 

[OldAsUrSock]

Nintendo has tons of reserves so they are not going down yet, but their business model is...different.

 

[BoboBrazil]

It's really fucking simple. Dump NES and SNES games on Android and Iphone at 99 cents or in game ads and profit?! It's not rocket science Nintendo. Well maybe for Nintendo it is.

 

[Josh7289]

Jesus, looks like they'll be lucky to get even half of the GC's total sales.

I have to wonder if Tom Kalinske or any of the other old suits from the Sega Genesis days are laughing right now...

And you know, another system that sold only half the GameCube's total units was... the Dreamcast.

 

[Yamauchi]

That's a much bigger loss than I expected, and the fact that it is likely going to be the 3rd straight year with an operating loss is very worrying. I thought they would at least break even.

Having just read this, I am thinking that Nintendo is in some deep, deep doodoo. Iwata has made some incredibly poor decisions, and the Wii U might just find itself on the chopping block.