That would be the 30th of this month.
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Nintendo lowers forecast from ¥55B profit to ¥25B loss [3DS 18M->13.5; WiiU 9M->2.8M]
- Thread starter mackaveli
- Start date
That would be the 30th of this month.
Palette Swap
Member
To be fair, these are only symptoms.
I'm among the people who have been pretty vocal about them (and stuff like PCM only surround sound, system wide achievements) but at the end of the day, by themselves. they're minor bulletpoints to a prospective buyer. They wouldn't prevent sales if Nintendo had strong USPs at the same time.
But in their accumulation, they make their products look eerely backwards at times and they reveal a very conservative approach to development. I guess that kind of conservatism fosters some of Nintendo's core qualities (strong identity, very solidly designed games or unique approach to some features) but they also make failures spectacular and course correction very hard.
WiiU is the most telling of these and a conundrum: it's stuck in a place where there's no easy solution or set of solutions to somehow change it's fortunes. It absolutely wasted its one year head start and even created some negative momentum in the meantime: losing retailer confidence in some regions and not mending fences with third parties will only add to the troubles it was already facing as a product when it launched.
That year headstart essentially turned an already losing battle into an uphill one. That result can be 100% laid at the feet of their governance/corporate culture. The fact they already had to turn around 3DS and followed it with a product launch orders of magnitude worse goes to show how hard it is for them to effectively capitalize on mistakes and adapt to a changing landscape. I mean, it's apparently hard for everyone but they're the ones that seem the most out of touch right now.
Baki
Member
But Nintendo is a platform holder. It is their duty to provide a wide range of software to suit the needs of all their potential customers.
Also, I disagree with your implication that Nintendo just "lost" the western markets out of no fault of their own. For example, no-one has forced them to adopt such an archaic network system. Nor did anyone force Nintendo not to prepare themselves adequately for a jump towards HD development. Nintendo's current situation is no-one's fault but their own.
R
Rösti
Unconfirmed Member
Just to be precise, the Corporate Management Policy Briefing will be held on the 30th of January. Includes a presentation and a Q&A, perhaps more.
chaosblade
Unconfirmed Member
Might be mistaken but I'm pretty sure both Sega and Atari were broke when they left the console business. Sega for sure, they couldn't afford to continue operating as they were, and if not for Sammy (or another company that may have picked them up) they might not exist at all today.
A quality collapse for Nintendo would just depend on how much money they have. If they blow through everything they have trying to keep a failed vision alive then yeah, they'll be screwed by going third party too. If they have the foresight to make that decision while they still have money it won't hurt their output nearly as much.
Is it time to buy shares?
Nintendo's my fave, so I only hope good for them, but I've always wanted to have the opportunity to invest too.. and that means their shares need to dive a bit. >__>
You can profit by short selling if you expect the shares to decline, but it's a bit late now. In hindsight this was actually quite predictable to most salesagers, so the recent rise in Nintendo shares was actually a great opportunity to profit on the decline in the share price following the inevitable profit warning and missed forecasts (which nearly everyone could see coming).
michaelius
Banned
Is it time to buy shares?
Nintendo's my fave, so I only hope good for them, but I've always wanted to have the opportunity to invest too.. and that means their shares need to dive a bit. >__>
Personally, I am not sure what the answer would be besides focusing more on the dudebro or technophile demographic with less focus on being family-appropriate, but I'm not sure if I want another console/mindset similar to Sony and Microsoft.
You still have year or more of Wii U flopping to drive share prices down
This should already be accounted for in the share price by the reduction in WiiU shipment forecast for the current FY to 2.8m. 3DS will be the main driver of share price from now on.
MetalGuardian
Banned
What an awful thread to wake up to. Nintendo has been my favorite company for twenty years, and I am incredibly uncomfortable with their current spiral into irrelevancy. If they were incapable of still creating incredible games, that would be one thing... but they're clearly not.
If this leads Nintendo to make drastic, radical changes with their business model, that could end up being excellent for Nintendo fans. But I fear they will continue to live in their delusional little bubble until they go extinct.
If this leads Nintendo to make drastic, radical changes with their business model, that could end up being excellent for Nintendo fans. But I fear they will continue to live in their delusional little bubble until they go extinct.
Best thing about the console is Nintendo software, and that's the only differentiation needed from the competition. Gamepad had no business as the focal point of the whole console, and it's obvious at this point that it wasn't worth it whatsoever. The Gamepad should have been an optional remote play device. The Pro controller, or an improved Wii-Mote would have been far better primary input methods.
There's no way to really lie in a forecast, because you don't know the future results yet. If you're wrong, it's not because you lied, it's because you guessed incorrectly. Nintendo's guess was really wrong, and I would argue it was wildly optimistic. You can be wildly, irrationally optimistic as long as you put one of these at the bottom:
[Note]
Forecasts announced by Nintendo Co., Ltd. herein are prepared based on management's assumptions with information available at this time and therefore involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Please note such risks and uncertainties may cause the actual results to be materially different from the forecasts (earnings forecast, dividend forecast and other forecasts).
It's an ADR. Sony's shares on the NYSE(SNE) are actually also an ADR, but they are a higher level, which is why they can be listed on a US exchange.
SmokedMeat
Gamer™
At what point was Atari releasing quality games?
Is it time to buy shares?
Nintendo's my fave, so I only hope good for them, but I've always wanted to have the opportunity to invest too.. and that means their shares need to dive a bit. >__>
Ya, now's the perfect time to invest, here's a site for like-minded people that will help you with the process.
http://crackberry.com/
They generally have to announce significant changes to forecasts as soon as the data is available, for retailers and manufacturers of consumer goods that is usually after the holiday period, but before their earnings release. Strategic changes are usually left until later than the immediate profit warnings announced post holiday season.
So yes, Iwata resigning will have a significant affect on the share price, but it wouldn't normally be expected to announce such things at the same time as the immediate profit warning.
Megadragon15
Member
They were releasing quality games in the arcades.
Watch for the bottom of the dip. Usually not too good of an idea to catch a falling knife.
That is true to an extent, but the forecasts have to be based in some kind of reality. For an industry like the video game industry, where FYQ3 makes up such a large percentage of annual sales then there really has to be a compelling reason (massive price cut in FYQ4 etc ) not to issue revised guidance after becomes clear that they completely missed their forecasts up until that point in time.
The Horror the horror
Banned
You people thinking about investing now are nuts. Nintendo has only taken two steps on a long, gloomy journey that stretches for 10 miles.
I know it hasn't happened since 2003 (low-point of the Gamecube era), but I wouldn't buy until it at least hits single digits ($9). As someone said earlier, it's too late/risky to short at this point.
I know it hasn't happened since 2003 (low-point of the Gamecube era), but I wouldn't buy until it at least hits single digits ($9). As someone said earlier, it's too late/risky to short at this point.
Given where the install base is now, projecting 2.8 million in sale for the Wii U this year is an unmitigated disaster. If this system can't find traction in the year that new iterations of Smash Bros and Mario Kart are released it won't be long for this world.
Personally, I love my Wii U, but I think it's screwed for a number of reasons.
First off, third parties have largely bailed out and have no incentive to come back to the table. With an install base this small, even ports of highly successful franchises are hard to justify (as evidenced by the lack of Madden this past year). Nintendo will likely pay for a few exclusives to try and tread water, but I don't see them being able to secure anything that will significantly move the needle for them.
Secondly, and probably most damning, with two holiday seasons behind us, most people still don't even know what the Wii U is. Nintendo has failed to effectively market this console and it's apparent anytime you speak with someone who doesn't live and breathe this stuff. The number of people I've met who either didn't know the Wii U even existed, or thought it was simply an add-on for the original Wii.
Instead of dipping into their cash reserves to herald the arrival of Nintendo to the HD era and the innovative features that set the Wii U apart, they phoned it in -- largely recycling the same Wii-era family time gaming strategy that had gone stale years before. Effectively, they wasted what little mindshare they were able to capture on tethering their new console to one that had been largely written off as a passing fad years earlier.
Despite all this, they probably could have still made money on the few consoles they did sell by properly leveraging their back catalog. Offering classic Nintendo games remastered in HD for the first time would have been a cost-effective way to to fill the gaps in their release schedule, draw more people to the system and introduce more of their install base to the eshop.
Instead, they've taken the promising foundation laid by the virtual console and made a mess of it. Weird resolutions, fragmented support (splitting up consoles and handhelds between the Wii U and 3DS) and no cross play -- not to mention the painfully slow pace of releases. Yes, Earthbound was great, but if they're not going to improve or remaster these games, why are they limiting consumers ability to buy them? Why isn't the entire catalog for past consoles up there? Why can't I download Wii and GC games? It's mind boggling.
I hope that whatever Nintendo decides to do next, whether it be a fast tracked new console, a relaunch, and/or a move into the mobile market, that they take the time to look back at their missteps and really learn from them. In a lot of ways, they made a great console, but its their own business decisions that have left the Wii U in a lurch. Those are the things that need to change if they hope to once again be a player in the home console market.
Personally, I love my Wii U, but I think it's screwed for a number of reasons.
First off, third parties have largely bailed out and have no incentive to come back to the table. With an install base this small, even ports of highly successful franchises are hard to justify (as evidenced by the lack of Madden this past year). Nintendo will likely pay for a few exclusives to try and tread water, but I don't see them being able to secure anything that will significantly move the needle for them.
Secondly, and probably most damning, with two holiday seasons behind us, most people still don't even know what the Wii U is. Nintendo has failed to effectively market this console and it's apparent anytime you speak with someone who doesn't live and breathe this stuff. The number of people I've met who either didn't know the Wii U even existed, or thought it was simply an add-on for the original Wii.
Instead of dipping into their cash reserves to herald the arrival of Nintendo to the HD era and the innovative features that set the Wii U apart, they phoned it in -- largely recycling the same Wii-era family time gaming strategy that had gone stale years before. Effectively, they wasted what little mindshare they were able to capture on tethering their new console to one that had been largely written off as a passing fad years earlier.
Despite all this, they probably could have still made money on the few consoles they did sell by properly leveraging their back catalog. Offering classic Nintendo games remastered in HD for the first time would have been a cost-effective way to to fill the gaps in their release schedule, draw more people to the system and introduce more of their install base to the eshop.
Instead, they've taken the promising foundation laid by the virtual console and made a mess of it. Weird resolutions, fragmented support (splitting up consoles and handhelds between the Wii U and 3DS) and no cross play -- not to mention the painfully slow pace of releases. Yes, Earthbound was great, but if they're not going to improve or remaster these games, why are they limiting consumers ability to buy them? Why isn't the entire catalog for past consoles up there? Why can't I download Wii and GC games? It's mind boggling.
I hope that whatever Nintendo decides to do next, whether it be a fast tracked new console, a relaunch, and/or a move into the mobile market, that they take the time to look back at their missteps and really learn from them. In a lot of ways, they made a great console, but its their own business decisions that have left the Wii U in a lurch. Those are the things that need to change if they hope to once again be a player in the home console market.
8-bit Hero
Banned
Opus Angelorum
Member
The original forecast took into account the upcoming (at that time) software library and the holiday period which has come and gone.
Unlike Sony with the PSVita, Nintendo have at least made a revision that is more realistic. Although some have already suggested that 2.8m might even be a stretch.
Regardless the next generation has arrived, with success across the board on both platforms. Nintendo face an uphill battle (with Wii U) over the next few quarters and frankly it's going to take a miracle to turn it around (if at all).
They released the Wii U too late (at least two years) and even with over a years headstart they scuppered almost every facet of it:
- Terrible name
- Abysmal marketing (specifically the gamepad)
- Abject advertising
- Big hitting software too late
- Lack of third party support/confidence
And based on todays news concerning the business structure, the Wii U might well be their last home console.
Is there an actual law that says you have to revise them when you know you're going to miss? It seems like there should be, but I don't know if there is. My understanding was that the safe harbor provision is really, really broad, but I'm not a securities lawyer (or any other kind of lawyer, for that matter).
Quadraphonic
Member
Doesn't need to be a law. The fact that they chose to not revise them after missing them so heavily is going to be their own punishment.
SmokedMeat
Gamer™
The comment I was responding to was in regards to consoles.
See You Next Wednesday
Banned
Holy Nintenbomba
Was waiting for this.
Randolph Freelander
Member
Is it time to buy shares?
Nintendo's my fave, so I only hope good for them, but I've always wanted to have the opportunity to invest too.. and that means their shares need to dive a bit. >__>
Personally, I am not sure what the answer would be besides focusing more on the dudebro or technophile demographic with less focus on being family-appropriate, but I'm not sure if I want another console/mindset similar to Sony and Microsoft.
Level with us, tell the truth. Is your desire to invest in them because you understand not only their present business but also the moves they can and will make in the short and mid term to set themselves up for sustainable profits with growth, profits that will lead to consistent and growing dividends and a healthy share price? Or is it because you really, really like Mario/Zelda/Pokemon?
If it's the latter, do yourself a favor and put your money in an index fund of the appropriate class and risk factor.
gigantor21
Member
This. The idea that they could sell that much hardware and software was dodgy even back when it was announced, but became less and less plausible over time. The adjustment was inevitable, as was the resulting stock drop (down 22% at 3PM EST).
Simply because they can't afford it.
If the Vita fails, ultimately, Sony would be wise to forget about a third entry into the handheld foray.
ramuh
Member
So I've been reading some old NEXT GENERATION magazine scans (from archive.org) and I came across an article from 1995 (That's when EA was backing 3DO, NEO-GEO was still doing ok in Japan, Saturn was trying to pre-empt the PS1, and Silicon Graphics was still huge) and what you said was so true.
Sega offered a life-line to Atari (who was SO broke in the Jaguar days) in the form of a 50 million dollar reinvestment of Atari, in exchange for 70 plus patents or something. It is funny that Sega kinda got themselves in the same situation as what Atari went through.
Back to point, I don't think Nintendo is quite there yet.
Yeah, those are only my assumptions, I'm certainly not an expert in this field. As you say, I also feel there should be laws against that (and assume there are), but would not know which laws if any apply. Of course these laws also vary between countries, I assume safe harbor is an American law, whereas Nintendo is listed in Japan. To confuse matters my assumptions are mainly based on the actions of British listed companies.
wrong thread lol
Edit since I already posted here:
HARDWARE
FY1:
GBA: 1.07m
NDS: 5.27m
3DS: 3.61m
FY2:
GBA: 17.09m
NDS: 11.46m
3DS: 13.53m
FY3:
GBA: 15.65m
NDS: 23.56m
3DS: 13.95m
FY4:
GBA: 17.59m
NDS: 30.31m
3DS: 13.5m (forecast)
FY5:
GBA: 15.4m
NDS: 31.18m
SOFTWARE
FY1:
GBA: 2.73m
NDS: 10.49m
3DS: 9.43m
FY2:
GBA: 47.05m
NDS: 49.95m
3DS: 36.00m
FY3:
GBA: 59.12m
NDS: 123.55m
3DS: 49.61m
FY4:
GBA: 74.89m
NDS: 185.62m
3DS: 66m (forecast)
FY5:
GBA: 84.57m
NDS: 197.31m
Edit since I already posted here:
HARDWARE
FY1:
GBA: 1.07m
NDS: 5.27m
3DS: 3.61m
FY2:
GBA: 17.09m
NDS: 11.46m
3DS: 13.53m
FY3:
GBA: 15.65m
NDS: 23.56m
3DS: 13.95m
FY4:
GBA: 17.59m
NDS: 30.31m
3DS: 13.5m (forecast)
FY5:
GBA: 15.4m
NDS: 31.18m
SOFTWARE
FY1:
GBA: 2.73m
NDS: 10.49m
3DS: 9.43m
FY2:
GBA: 47.05m
NDS: 49.95m
3DS: 36.00m
FY3:
GBA: 59.12m
NDS: 123.55m
3DS: 49.61m
FY4:
GBA: 74.89m
NDS: 185.62m
3DS: 66m (forecast)
FY5:
GBA: 84.57m
NDS: 197.31m
arts&crafts
Member
Bring back the N64! I have a few but I would buy another.
That's what's so bad about people defending this goat rodeo.
dream
Member
Is it time to buy shares?
Nintendo's my fave, so I only hope good for them, but I've always wanted to have the opportunity to invest too.. and that means their shares need to dive a bit. >__>
Personally, I am not sure what the answer would be besides focusing more on the dudebro or technophile demographic with less focus on being family-appropriate, but I'm not sure if I want another console/mindset similar to Sony and Microsoft.
For a cautionary tale of what happens when people ignore objective markers that their favorite company is on the path to ruin, and buy stock out of sentimentality, see Crackberry.com's forum,
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
On "would Nintendo quality collapse if they went third-party", that's not really the risk nor is it what happened with Sega. Sega's quality didn't collapse. What happened was their scope. If you're not a first-party, you can't justify loss-leaders. You don't greenlight games in genres just to improve your ecosystem diversity. You stop greenlighting marginal stuff. Now, this doesn't mean there aren't outlets for smaller franchises--Microsoft released a Hydro Thunder game on XBLA, and then on WP7/8, and then W8--just that you don't release games just to have them out there without thinking about whether or not they'll recoup investment. Sega would not be likely to make another Bonanza Bros, just from an ROI perspective.
I would expect a third-party Nintendo to have fewer employees, release fewer games (I would expect a bunch of the Mario Sports titles to get dropped, for example), jettison a chunk of their lesser performing IPs, and publish fewer games from other companies in different regions. But I wouldn't expect the average quality of the games they did release to be reduced. And I don't think they'd lose their acumen just by no longer working on their own hardware.
I would expect a third-party Nintendo to have fewer employees, release fewer games (I would expect a bunch of the Mario Sports titles to get dropped, for example), jettison a chunk of their lesser performing IPs, and publish fewer games from other companies in different regions. But I wouldn't expect the average quality of the games they did release to be reduced. And I don't think they'd lose their acumen just by no longer working on their own hardware.
AstroNut325
Member
What's the over/under on the number of Mario games they announce at the next ND? Because quite frankly... I don't see them being able to do much else.
chaosblade
Unconfirmed Member
9 million might have made sense initially. Then games got delayed and sales were awful for the first 6 months of the fiscal year and that has basically set the tone for the system. It should have been revised sooner with Iwata being straightforward - the games aren't ready, and we can't sell a system without the games.
Then it didn't help that the games that did come out bombed.
I think a lot of people feel like Nintendo is already doing this, at least to a greater extent than a first party probably should. Focusing on too few IPs and not delving deeper into their catalog for more variety to appeal to more types of gamers.
I just can't picture any future for Nintendo besides third-party. It's not just the spectacular Wii U failure, it's also the ominous slowing sales of the 3DS hardware and software. Sooner or later there will be no point in putting out dedicated Nintendo hardware. But I expect a lot of stupid decisions and waffling before they get there.
ElectricBlanketFire
Member
From a "remaining first party" perspective, is "Nintendo is doomed" no longer a joke?
Mario Sports are high performing IPs that are probably pretty cheap on the whole, why would they drop those? They'd drop Starfox, F-zero, Metroid, 3D Zelda, and any RPGs or things contracted through Platinum Games if that was the case because those cost a lot and don't do well enough to justify it. You'd get more Mario, more Wii * (and these would most definitely degrade as a result of hardware), fucking Donkey Kong, Kirby and anything else that's high ROI. It would also likely give more incentive to not create a healthy userbase but gouge the hell out of consumers of specific products like Pokemon and Animal Crossing (not that Iwata would, but a "good" gaming CEO certainly would). Certainly not a rosy outlook.
I also think you're being a bit too lenient on Sega. Just look at Sonic, Sonic Adventure wasn't the best game ever but it's by far and away better than anything since. It's not just a reduction of small or mid-range titles but that their games are often fundamentally broken.
AstroNut325
Member
A lot of Nintendo fans believed in what this GIF says up until the launch:
Delusions of grandeur seem to run deep in the Nintendo camp... all the way to the top executives.
So what would change then? If I look at the 3DS, that already happened. No more Hotel Dusk, Elite Beat Agents, or other niche stuff. Just more of the same old titles with a few small eShop games which some Nintendo fans bring up when it comes to innovative new IPs.