Gears bundle is #19 behind PS4 500Gb with Battlefront that is on #15
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November 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 8th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Gears bundle is #19 behind PS4 500Gb with Battlefront that is on #15
slavesnyder
Member
First I thought you only come in here when it's about results.
It's great to see you even finding the time to sneak in regularly.
Bitch Pudding
Member
No chance in hell XBOX beats PS4 in November if two PS4 SKUs are ahead of the best selling XBOX One SKU on amazon.com. I mean, Aaron Greenberg thinks that amazon charts are legit, so...
Dash_Riprock
Member
But, October...
DriftingSpirit
Member
Yeah, I think it will be substantially up. I do think 1 million should be a minimum. Hitting just 1 million would be disappointing all things considered.
lol..jpg)
He even looks like spencer somehow.
BeforeU
Oft hope is born when all is forlorn.
October was legit, we know that the monthly charts doesn't count the pre-order made in the past months so the result was expected and they win with a very small margin (arround 30k if irc).
Now there are two Sku ahead of the Xbox One and there are even the pre-order of Battlefront and COD.
I think it's safe to say that PS4 may have win November, not so sure for Black Friday itself because the deal for X1 were pretty crazy this year.
Bitch Pudding
Member
But October had halo xbox preorders, just like this month had ps4 preorders...
LegendofDragoonLives
Member
I don't take it as a fact, rather a hypothetical scenario. I've been hearing sales have been drastically lower than usual for the franchise, so this could fit in line with it. If it is true, I'm curious to see next October/November and see how Horizon 3 will fare.
That's interesting must mean that the gap between 1st and 4th on the hourlies for black Friday was huge for the gears bundle to be so far from the NDC bundle despite having sales pre black Friday.
Matches what we've heard from bestbuy.
tattooed_dwarf
Member
Especially when it confirms their opinion.
LegendofDragoonLives
Member
What have we heard from Bestbuy?
gundamkyoukai
Member
That they had a good amount of the NDC bundles and they sold very good.
AgentP
Thinks mods influence posters politics. Promoted to QAnon Editor.
Oct had months if pre orders for Halo bundle, what did Nov have?
serversurfer
Member
For PS4? Pre-orders for the soon-to-be-discounted CoD and Star Wars bundles. For Bone? Fallout pre-orders, I guess? Well, and Tomb Raider, of course.
AgentP
Thinks mods influence posters politics. Promoted to QAnon Editor.
Battlefield pre orders will dwarf all the others combined. XB1 used there bonus sales last month, Nov has nothing but black Friday to move units. PS4 has two bundles of pre orders and black Friday. Unless MS wins big this weekend, they have no chance.
US Amazon has updated their November ranking list [thanks to djskribbles from B3D for taking time to copy/paste results]:
HW:
5. Nathan Drake Collection (physical copy) PS4 bundle
15. Battlefront PS4 bundle (standard)
19. Gears of War XB1 bundle
22. Black Ops III PS4 bundle
27. Fallout 4 XB1 bundle
24. Nathan Drake Collection (digital copy) PS4 bundle
31. Battlefront LE PS4 bundle
49. Holiday XB1 bundle
SW:
1. Fallout 4 (PS4)
3. Fallout 4 (XB1)
4. Black Ops III (XB1)
7. Black Ops III (PS4)
13. Battlefront DE (PS4)
14. Battlefront (XB1)
16. Battlefront (PS4)
17. Battlefront DE (XB1)
21. Halo 5
23. Madden 16 (PS4)
28. Madden 16 (XB1)
29. Assassin's Creed Syndicate (PS4)
37. Minecraft (XB1)
43. Bloodborne
53. Rise of the Tomb Raider
57. Nathan Drake Collection
60. MGSV (PS4)
65. NBA 2K16 (PS4)
67. Assassin's Creed Syndicate (XB1)
69. GTAV (PS4)
70. NBA 2K16 (XB1)
71. FIFA 16 (PS4)
74. Minecraft Story Mode (XB1)
76. Just Dance 2016 (XB1)
78. Minecraft (PS4)
80. Assassin's Creed Unity (PS4)
81. Arkham Knight (PS4)
85. Lego Dimensions (XB1)
93. NFS (PS4)
96. Forza 6
100. LBP 3
If we look at historic accuracy of Amazon rankings, PS4 is so far easily winning this month. However, late holiday sales are affected by custom bundles that are offered by individual retailers. This is just a data point for Amazon. Other retailers most likely did not have bundle with physical Uncharted discs that sold so well here.
HW:
5. Nathan Drake Collection (physical copy) PS4 bundle
15. Battlefront PS4 bundle (standard)
19. Gears of War XB1 bundle
22. Black Ops III PS4 bundle
27. Fallout 4 XB1 bundle
24. Nathan Drake Collection (digital copy) PS4 bundle
31. Battlefront LE PS4 bundle
49. Holiday XB1 bundle
SW:
1. Fallout 4 (PS4)
3. Fallout 4 (XB1)
4. Black Ops III (XB1)
7. Black Ops III (PS4)
13. Battlefront DE (PS4)
14. Battlefront (XB1)
16. Battlefront (PS4)
17. Battlefront DE (XB1)
21. Halo 5
23. Madden 16 (PS4)
28. Madden 16 (XB1)
29. Assassin's Creed Syndicate (PS4)
37. Minecraft (XB1)
43. Bloodborne
53. Rise of the Tomb Raider
57. Nathan Drake Collection
60. MGSV (PS4)
65. NBA 2K16 (PS4)
67. Assassin's Creed Syndicate (XB1)
69. GTAV (PS4)
70. NBA 2K16 (XB1)
71. FIFA 16 (PS4)
74. Minecraft Story Mode (XB1)
76. Just Dance 2016 (XB1)
78. Minecraft (PS4)
80. Assassin's Creed Unity (PS4)
81. Arkham Knight (PS4)
85. Lego Dimensions (XB1)
93. NFS (PS4)
96. Forza 6
100. LBP 3
If we look at historic accuracy of Amazon rankings, PS4 is so far easily winning this month. However, late holiday sales are affected by custom bundles that are offered by individual retailers. This is just a data point for Amazon. Other retailers most likely did not have bundle with physical Uncharted discs that sold so well here.
serversurfer
Member
Then yeah, it sounds like we're in agreement.
Also, I suspect Sony nerfed their sales pretty effectively in early October by announcing the price cuts on Star Wars, CoD, and NDC, but having NDC be the only one that was actually available for that month. I expect a comparatively big November for PS4 just from shifted demand.
I still can't decide if I approve of their decision to not have an unbundled SKU at $300 by this point. Yeah, they can drop the NDC bundle to $300 as needed, making it quite attractive indeed, but at the same time, then they're probably losing money on the bundle, or at least reducing their profits significantly. My guess would be they'd maintain better momentum throughout the holiday with an unbundled console, which in turn would reduce the need to discount the NDC bundles to maintain overall pace, increasing profitability.
They are selling everything they can produce with record-smashing pace since console was unveiled [even when competition offered cheaper console for a long time], so there is no need for lower PS4 price. Market is speaking, they see better value in PS4.
November retail period ended yesterday, so this should be the final Amazon chart used for discussing possible November NPD impacts. Also, November BF sales are heavily influenced by sales. So much so that a game on sale at one retailer will see huge WOW gains not reflected by other locations that did not have it on sale. Therefore it does muddy the waters trying to use one retailer to predict the full market in November. Just for reference. (^_^)
gundamkyoukai
Member
Then yeah, it sounds like we're in agreement.
Also, I suspect Sony nerfed their sales pretty effectively in early October by announcing the price cuts on Star Wars, CoD, and NDC, but having NDC be the only one that was actually available for that month. I expect a comparatively big November for PS4 just from shifted demand.
I still can't decide if I approve of their decision to not have an unbundled SKU at $300 by this point. Yeah, they can drop the NDC bundle to $300 as needed, making it quite attractive indeed, but at the same time, then they're probably losing money on the bundle, or at least reducing their profits significantly. My guess would be they'd maintain better momentum throughout the holiday with an unbundled console, which in turn would reduce the need to discount the NDC bundles to maintain overall pace, increasing profitability.
Well UC4 is coming out in march so that is why i expect them to push the NDC bundle so much .
Crimson_Gold
Member
So you're saying Until Dawn won't be #1 then?
Looks like PS4 has strong numbers all around. Gonna have to adjust my numbers again after Monday. Hoping for some PR
With pre-orders for Battlefront from other months I'll be really surprised if Xbone will win November.
serversurfer
Member
Yeah, I see what you're saying, and you're not wrong. But while they can't keep NDC in stock at $300, I think it would've been nearly as tough to keep a $300 unbundled console in stock, and that'd make more money for Sony in the end than the $300 NDC bundle.
But again, $300 with a game is even more appealing than $300 without one, so having "plenty" of NDC bundles on hand that they can discount as needed is an effective strategy as well. So like I said, I don't think they made the wrong decision by any means, but I'm not entirely sure they made the best decision either. I think we're gonna see the NDC bundle priced at $300 a lot between now and Christmas and that will move a lot of hardware, but that may have been less necessary if they'd offered an unbundled option alongside.
So, yeah. I dunno. lol
Edit:
Yeah, that's a good point too; there are a lot of US gamers getting turned on to Uncharted this holiday, and remasters are comparatively cheap.
slavesnyder
Member
Good point.
I would love to know what development for the NDC was, compared to a "normal" AAA title. You safe on writing, gamedesign, mocap, recordings, most of the design and animation, research and so on.
Any guesses? 5 Mio.$?
If it was primarily planned as "marketing material" and Black Friday fodder it served it's purpose nicely.
I'vs been saying it, but imo unless Walmart and Gamestop had some really weird, off trend BF sales by a huge margin, PS4 is not only going to take BF but the whole of November by a pretty decent margin.
From there, unless we see a strategic price drop for a big chunk of December (or all of it), I also see a Dec win by about 100k or possibly more.
gundamkyoukai
Member
When you buy the NDC bundle do you get into the UC4 beta ?
If so ND servers better be ready since that going to be huge amount of people for a first beta test .
If so ND servers better be ready since that going to be huge amount of people for a first beta test .
serversurfer
Member
Can't argue with that either. Shu actually considers all first-party development to primarily be marketing, so "promoting the brand" is why this stuff exists at all; if it breaks even or turns a profit, even better.
I'm not sure this is true. Games like Uncharted 4, Gran Turismo and the other big releases are made to make profit AND attract new users. The games that weren't profitable last gen are now cancelled and the team dismissed.
They take risk but at a reasonable cost.
FranXico
Member
Ironically, it looks like securing a marketing deal makes your platform's version sell less.
I wouldn't take amazon software as gospel. Too many variables imo
DriftingSpirit
Member
Well, you have to consider the CoD bundled with PS4 but it is also just CoD being heavily associated with X1 by default. The game aligns better with the Xbox audience.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Bundles don't count towards the software numbers.
October sony didn't have The SW or Cod bundle. X1 had to dominate BF to have a chance. All signs are showing that didn't happen.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Can't wait to see those Tomb Raider numbers. Although it won't be top 10 so we might not get them.
Learn from my mistakes (aka my tag) ....
These are not the indicators you are looking for
Just like global warming leads to less pirates!
A game doesn't have to be in top 10 for us to get numbers.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
That's true. I just remember not getting exact numbers for Dragon Age Inquisition last year.
Primethius
Banned
Pre orders
*1,065,000
Right. I was just testing you. Congrats, you passed!
:lol
FranXico
Member
Learn from my mistakes (aka my tag) ....
These are not the indicators you are looking for
I was intentionally excluding bundles in order to jest about the inverted platforms in the SW list. It just looked amusing.
Indeed, amazon gives a very limited and rough outlook of the results.
LMAO
Unknown One
Member
Total bullets shot on the weekend or number of virtual gallons of gas used in races.
FranXico
Member
If AG's tweets are anything to go by, PR will be about how Black Friday is great for gaming (thus implying "everyone is a winner").
mejin
Member
Maybe another Master Spin like the one of Halo 5.
Halo 5 was the best selling Xbox One exclusive, first-person shooter game of 2015 on Black Friday.
I wonder if they will try to spin things with Sold-in figures since they likely to have absolutely flooded the market just like last year especially with the ridiculous number of bundles they shipped out. Maybe talk about how they "sold" more XB1s than last year?
Orrrrr perhaps they will emphasis profit being far better than last year since they are definitely making more profit from their bundles this year than the firesale ones from last year.
Either way should be a fun one.
Orrrrr perhaps they will emphasis profit being far better than last year since they are definitely making more profit from their bundles this year than the firesale ones from last year.
Either way should be a fun one.