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November 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 8th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
It's odd, before TR's release, I only saw it in the sizzle reel for their fall/winter games, a week after release however and I've had a dedicated ad for it before a vast majority of Youtube videos I've watched.
jhmtehgamr20xx
Banned
Maybe MS could buck the trend. It'd help to spread out their big announcements instead of throwing all of them at E3, and in fact I remember hearing a while back MS was planning on an Xbox event similar to what Sony's been doing w/ PSXperience.
I'm wondering if ROTR would have even done what they wanted it to do for them if Uncharted wasn't delayed!
I mean, let's just make the simple analogy that Uncharted is basically Sony's Mario at this point and Microsoft wanted their own Mario. But instead of going for a Sonic, they were going for a Bonk. The Bonk games were good; great even. But they don't have enough of a stylistic difference to really drive home the point of pushing their platform against their competitor like Sonic provided for Genesis. You have to remember, Sonic single-handedly helped its platform stave off its competitor in its most competitive markets until more or less the end of that gen, and while those days may be over for console exclusives a solid ROTR that also happened to be just enough anti-Uncharted would have at least given XBO a very strong boost in US and UK if they timed it right and the game had the right formula.
The thing is, at least from a glance ROTR still seems a lot like a really good Uncharted kind of game that's caught in the shadow of the Uncharted franchise; it doesn't seem to have enough of a contrasting personality to step out from that shadow and stand on its own as a competitor to really challenge people's perception of Uncharted being the king of its domain, least not the way Sonic made people challenge their perceptions of Mario's unwavering popularity for the first time in a serious enough way to give sway for its host platform. And that's probably what MS was hoping ROTR would have done for XBO.
Then the delay happens. Then Fallout 4 happens and the reality of them choosing a holiday release for a console exclusive sandwiched in between these massive multiplatform titans was a horrible idea from the start, but it was too late to delay the game. And now we're seeing what happens when those mistakes cut very, very close and very, very hard.
Nightengale
Member
MS barely has enough content for 2 conferences though.
Even with Gamescom, they're stretched pretty thin since the number of announcements there is few compared to their E3 announcements.
Spreading out announcements often mean sacrificing the potential content for another one of your events, and frankly I don't think GDC is worth it. MS is better off hosting their own Xbox Experience.
Without looking at timing of their stock history, quarterly reports/projections etc. I suspect it's a combination of these
jhmtehgamr20xx
Banned
Yeah, Xbox Experience might be the event I was thinkin' about. I don't hear a lot about it, but between that and GDC it would be a good idea to go w/ the former, you're right about that.
To the other point, well that's honestly why I think they need that sort of event. Their 2016 is looking anemic in terms of console exclusives tbh. There's Scalebound, Crackdown 3 (maybe), Quantum Break and Cuphead as their main drivers. I doubt a new Forza is coming next year, but maybe that Fable game is coming out. Still though, it's not a lot. Sony OTOH seems like they're going ham with their console exclusives for next year, although I'm suspecting at least one of them (probably Horizon) gets delayed into 2017.
Hell Nintendo could come into the picture w/ an NX launching w/ a new big Mario and Zelda. That's just two games but even that would still drown out XBO's 2016 schedule unless they have some big surprises to announce, which I'm hoping they do.
Nightengale
Member
I think Forza Horizon 3 is a no brainer for next year. You're also missing out Sea of Thieves, Halo Wars 2 and Gears 4.
I think MS has a good lineup next year even with just what's announced.
I think MS has a good lineup next year even with just what's announced.
Crimson_Gold
Member
Unfortunately, this series isn't something that'll drive console sales. Sea of Thieves could do something special if the execution is done right. Halo Wars is Halo, but not a mainline Halo, and we see how Halo 5 has done. Gears 4 is anyone's guess
No thanks, leave GDC alone for what it is.
jhmtehgamr20xx
Banned
Didn't they just announce Gears 4 last year? Was thinking that was a 2017 release, but good for them if they can get it out in '16.
I guess the other two will be pretty decent, tho I'm personally not big into pirates. And hopefully Halo 5's performance has been otherwise steady w/ Halo 3 and/or 4 b/c the opening sales performance saw a huge drop compared to what was expected. Hopefully it's a signal of severe franchise fatigue (and for that matter, hopefully GT6's sales weren't a sign of that for the GT series).
Thing is they have a pretty decent lineup but is it going to be good enough against PS4? Personally I'm just not drawn to XBO's current 2016 console exclusives as I am to PS4's, just going by what we know, but that's just a subjective opinion. Objectively speaking though I feel comfortable saying PS4's 2016 lineup seems more diverse than XBO's and has a few more potential heavy-hitters. And if anything MS needs to focus on a more diverse 1st/2nd-party lineup to hook in a larger net of people.
They also got to factor if NX gets a megastar launch in 2016 w/ either a massive Mario or Zelda game. That could hit both PS4 and XBO a nice bit but atm PS4 looks like it'd weather that hit quite better than XBO would.
Jack The Nipper
Banned
[3DS] 425K
[PS4] 1335K
[WIU] 478K
[XB1] 1099K
Well I have ever no idea. Hope to win those bragging rights.
[PS4] 1335K
[WIU] 478K
[XB1] 1099K
Well I have ever no idea. Hope to win those bragging rights.
Nightengale
Member
Not every announcement are "2 years away" announcements.
jhmtehgamr20xx
Banned
Oh I know; just at the time the announcement was made, the wording made it sound like it was in early stages. I'm also guessing the dev cycle of the typical AAA game these days is 2 1/2 - 3 years, unless it's AssCreed, and particularly for first installments on new hardware.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
They didn't start making it until after they bought the IP.
Nightengale
Member
The official reveal this year has the release window for holiday 16.
And from then (when it was purchased) till holiday next year is just about the bare minimum of time it takes to make a AAA game anyway.
Not saying it'll definitely make it next year, but enough time has passed for it to be shippable.
Honestly, if Gears 4 ain't their big holiday 2016 game, what would it be?
If they have to push Gears 4 to 2017, do they push Quantum Break to holiday 2016?
It's not like Remedy hasn't delayed a game more than once before ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
Welfare
Member
So almost 3 years. They bought the IP back in January 2014, this game could be made by holiday 2016, as all Gears games were on 2 year dev cycles except for 3, which was 3 years.
Scalebound
Lol
Not that I don't love IGA (and I do, immensely) but him coming out and cracking his whip was borderline Konami conference shenanigans...
serversurfer
Member
Err, didn't The Coalition just put out a Gears remaster they spent 18 months working on? And you guys think they'll have a full game ready in another ~12? =/
Edit: Do they already have a b-team or something?
Edit: Do they already have a b-team or something?
They announced a holiday 2016 release date so they must have been working on it simultaneously. E3 demo seemed pretty far along as well.
slavesnyder
Member
At least the internet would have been full of Drake vs. Lara compare stuff.
For that: Buzz and Marketing delivered for free. With the quality of the game as it seems the comments wouldn't have looked too bad for her.
But this clash got cancelled, MS was forced to make marketing on their own. They made some half-assed attempts.
I am sure this makes it more difficult for MS to secure 3rd party exclusivity in the future. Every developer wants to see a publisher promoting their game with passion and dollars. It's depressing to see when this does not happen.
Clementine will remember that.
And when Spencer said they do not focus on moneyhatting any more, I smell the same hen-egg-situation as with so many decisions. The statement was given after they ran around with a basket full of cash and could not get anything attractive (Mass Effect or else). Coincidence?
Thanks, so this is "compete list" for all intenses and purposes. Here I've added the Battlefront rankings from previous months.
US Amazon HW November:
5. Nathan Drake Collection (physical copy) PS4 bundle
15. Battlefront PS4 bundle (standard)
19. Gears of War XB1 bundle
22. Black Ops III PS4 bundle (also ranked #39 in October)
24. Nathan Drake Collection (digital copy) PS4 bundle
27. Fallout 4 XB1 bundle
31. Battlefront LE PS4 bundle (also ranked #26 in October and #16 in August)
49. Holiday XB1 bundle
-fixed order of SKUs
Thanks!
Something wrong with the ranking here.
edit :
edit - ah, I switched the places!
There you go
Nothing strange. When users got the choice when BF started, they overwhelmingly chose to switch to bundle with physical copy.
edit - ah, I switched the places!
gundamkyoukai
Member
Not if it only on one system with a way lower install base where the game popular .
They should have brought it out on PC same time.
Also i don't think UC4 coming around the same time would have help TR .
slavesnyder
Member
Agree, normally it should be an advantage to have the only 3rd person adventure available in the holiday season.* This would be a great story to sell.
It's still a mystery for me why this franchise does not click in the US.
*on the other hand we have NDC, only remasters, but 3 for the price of one. With multiplayer. And feelgood-vibe in contrast to always depressed Lara.
Nightengale
Member
The Fallout media echo chamber were practically ready to give it GOTY without having even played it./s
Media had a bit of a fallout with Fallout, it seems.
Only 50 goty awards this time probs, step it up bethesda.
biglittleps
Member
I don't think NX could hit PS4/XB1 much unless it has all the 3rd party holiday games coming for PS4/XB1 and console is cheaper, so those who are going to buy NX are Nintendo fans and existing Wii U users mostly, but not those gamers (majority) who want to play 3rd party games.
Its strange to see Action/RPG as XB1 exclusive because audience is not there. Also whatever Platinum makes never sells well and its not going to move systems. I'm really curious about Quantum break next year
tattooed_dwarf
Member
September or bust.
NeloAnjelo
Member
I completely agree with this narrative. My thoughts exactly. Sony has so much diversity in 2016 coupled with big exclusives. I bet they will have some big third party and 2nd party deals mixed into these too. MS needs Gears in Holiday 2016. Also I think they will have a slim XB1 in 2017 at $249.
slavesnyder
Member
Plus, they have VR. This is a completely new story. Even people not buying the helmet will see and hear about PS4 on every corner.
The funny thing to me is that ROTR feels a lot less like uncharted than the first game did. This one is a lot more open and the shooter aspect is really toned down. Encounters are short and are designed extremely simplistically. I've yet to bump into an encounter with more than four guys or so. There's very limited verticality and I've yet to see a reason to switch from the bow. There's also no multiplayer.
This feels a lot more like a Jak and Daxter than Uncharted, actually. I absolutely love this game and I'm glad they're carving out a niche away from Uncharted but the combat bowl we saw a year ago at PSX was far beyond anything in this game so far from a shooter perspective...and the madness of the e3 demo was not in the same league. But I'll be shocked if Uncharted has quest givers, hubs, etc. They are further apart now than they have been since Underworld, which was only two games ago but it was 7 years.
This feels a lot more like a Jak and Daxter than Uncharted, actually. I absolutely love this game and I'm glad they're carving out a niche away from Uncharted but the combat bowl we saw a year ago at PSX was far beyond anything in this game so far from a shooter perspective...and the madness of the e3 demo was not in the same league. But I'll be shocked if Uncharted has quest givers, hubs, etc. They are further apart now than they have been since Underworld, which was only two games ago but it was 7 years.
Omnistalgic
Member
Music to my ears, will definitely support the game, but if it's releasing for full price next year, can't guarantee it's a day one purchase. But excited as I found the first reboot to just be a weaker Uncharted with upgraded mechanics.
Stilton Disco
Member
That sounds excellent! I love both series, for much the same reasons, but that doesn't mean I want them to be interchangeable.
Either later today or tomorrow would be my guess.
slavesnyder
Member
They could use our bingo chart to speed things up.
Plague Doctor
Member
Anecdotal and all: Xbox One seem to be still pounding the dirt with close-to-BF deals on Cyber Monday from the emails I am getting (GS, Walmart, Amazon). PS4's deals are really low key.
The Green is hungry and wants this month!
In other news, way too much retailer spam in my personal email... I need a new one.
The Green is hungry and wants this month!
(or atleast go through the stock they shipped)
In other news, way too much retailer spam in my personal email... I need a new one.
I'd honestly think we'll hear something tomorrow. With all these deals starting Thursday night and going into today. I wonder if both companies want a full picture for their PR.
Tivor Tontomo
Member
[XB1] 1350K
[PS4] 1135K
[WIU] 310K
[3DS] 550K
I think both will get an increase but the gap won't be too different. MS had some deals, and MS has quite a few places (Staples, Office Depot, BJS, Radioshack, FYE, HHgregg) where the PS4 has a low or zero presence, but from the multiple stores I went to and heard, they had stocked up on Xbox Ones over what they usually get. This probably won't be much more than a minimum of 150,000 to 250,000 sales max most likely, though depending on BJs stock it could be a bit more, but that is still a decent chunk.
Add that with the Big retailers advertising Xbox One predominately on their sales papers, such as Target, Walmart, and some others, along with some in store deals, and a large bundle count, I think it's possible for a similar win to Last year.
[PS4] 1135K
[WIU] 310K
[3DS] 550K
I think both will get an increase but the gap won't be too different. MS had some deals, and MS has quite a few places (Staples, Office Depot, BJS, Radioshack, FYE, HHgregg) where the PS4 has a low or zero presence, but from the multiple stores I went to and heard, they had stocked up on Xbox Ones over what they usually get. This probably won't be much more than a minimum of 150,000 to 250,000 sales max most likely, though depending on BJs stock it could be a bit more, but that is still a decent chunk.
Add that with the Big retailers advertising Xbox One predominately on their sales papers, such as Target, Walmart, and some others, along with some in store deals, and a large bundle count, I think it's possible for a similar win to Last year.
FullMetaltech
Member
[XB1] 1225K
[PS4] 1430K
[WIU] 290K
[3DS] 520K
I think PS4 will take it this time around. Compared to last BF the price is on par with the XB1 now. So I can see it moving more now that the popular titles have a bigger install base there.
[PS4] 1430K
[WIU] 290K
[3DS] 520K
I think PS4 will take it this time around. Compared to last BF the price is on par with the XB1 now. So I can see it moving more now that the popular titles have a bigger install base there.
Tivor Tontomo
Member
Don't know if this is legit, but Walmart.com has a best sellers list:
http://www.walmart.com/browse/video-games/consoles/2636_1040580?grid=false&
So does Bestbuy:
http://www.bestbuy.com/site/searchp...d$abcat0700000&lid=Products: All New Releases
http://www.walmart.com/browse/video-games/consoles/2636_1040580?grid=false&
So does Bestbuy:
http://www.bestbuy.com/site/searchp...d$abcat0700000&lid=Products: All New Releases
That walmart chart is cheating the xbox is being sponsored lol.
RedAssedApe
Banned
Bestbuy shows ROTR bundle and Xbone with Kinect. So...
Damn, it seems that xbox one is really dominating at Walmart. Walmart is also much bigger then BestBuy, so I now kind of think that xbox has probably edged out on PS4
Primethius
Banned
Wal-mart list is weird because it doesn't seem to be ordered at all.
Welfare
Member
The online stores amount to a small portion of the actual retail front, so it still doesn't give us a clear picture.
It's ordered by best sellers.
yukianderson
Member
[3DS] 455k
[PS4] 1320K
[WIU] 385k
[XB1] 984K
[PS4] 1320K
[WIU] 385k
[XB1] 984K