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November 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 8th

RexNovis

Banned
I think he's just showing feigned excitement for the Wii u being high up in any chart for no reason.

Lol.

When you post stuff like that ina sales thread people take it as a legitimate indicator of sales trends. That's why you have to provide the context. Like the name of the chart/list. Without the context its too open for misinterpretation. Going by the cropping of the picture t is obvious Ryng went out of his/her way to obfuscate the source of the screencap and a regular member of SalesGAF should know better than to do something like that.
 

orochi91

Member
When you post stuff like that ina sales thread people take it as a legitimate indicator of sales trends. That's why you have to provide the context. Like the name of the chart/list. Without the context its too open for misinterpretation.

Agreed, for a moment there I was shocked the Wii U was so close to the top ranking at Amazon lol
 

Abdiel

Member
When you post stuff like that ina sales thread people take it as a legitimate indicator of sales trends. That's why you have to provide the context. Like the name of the chart/list. Without the context its too open for misinterpretation. Going by the cropping of the picture t is obvious Ryng went out of his/her way to obfuscate the source of the screencap and a regular member of SalesGAF should know better than to do something like that.

Eh. He's enthusiastic about the system not being a total bomb. He's genuine about his numbers and calculations, but he was over exaggerated on purpose.
 

noshten

Member
Eh. He's enthusiastic about the system not being a total bomb. He's genuine about his numbers and calculations, but he was over exaggerated on purpose.

Iareseriouscat.jpg

Anyhow I wouldn't be surprised if MK8 is the Bundle they keep for the entire holidays and maintain this price it would probably end up the best selling Wii U bundle on Amazon for the year.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
If you are going to reference the Amazon charts you need to give us more context and not just a screencap. Is this the monthly chart or hourly? Or is it the "best sellers" chart? Is it for November or December? All of these are important. Simply referencing amazon charts with a picture tells us basically nothing. You should know better.

Edit: So looking into it this screencap is from the "hot new releases" chart which basically means absolutely nothing as it only ranks "new releases" and its ranking metrics are completely unknown. We dont know if this is an hourly update or if its a cumulative update. Hell we dont even know if it ranks by sales since it isnt a "best seller list." You might as well link the "mover and shakers list. Which by the way looks like this:


And then say:
ZOMG GAIZ THE ORDER IS #3 :O :O :O :O

Do you seriously not see how utterly ridiculous that is? We honestly shouldn't be reading anything out of this or any other non monthly or yearly "best seller" list and frankly shame on you Ryng_Tolu for linking it like we should.

Dude... Call down, i was half joking with that post lol.
 
well using amazon charts as an indication for videogames isn't very serious given their marketshare

Marketshare is something like 8% iirc. That's a nice sample size for predictions. Every market researcher would be wetting his pants out of excitement if he could reach 8% for his surveys. At least it's far better than scanned cash register bills.

We all know that Amazon charts are not 100% accurate, but they are a good indicator. If you have anything better please let us know.

About Ryng
You should know Ryng by now. Apart from his foolish love for Nintendo and Inklings he seems to be mentally healthy.
Analysis-wise, he knows his shit and if a posting from him is so bizarre it just has to be a joke. That one was not funny and might mislead some. But you know, Ellie, this could even happen to the best of us.
 

Asd202

Member
Let's see a possible scenario...

XB1 this November: 900,000 ( i personally predict 1.02m )

Wii U this november: 400,000 ( i personally predict 325k)

Now, last year, Wii U got a 140% boost November to December, ( 242,000 -----> 580,000 ), and XB1 only 5% boost ( 1,230,000 -------> 1,290,000 ).

IF we will see those sales in November, and we will see the same boost of last year, then the December result will become:

Wii U: 400,000 + 140% = 960,000
XB1: 900,000 + 5% = 945,000


Ok, not gonna happen, but lmao if will. :p

I doubt they have so much stock of that bundle.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
I love how people don't get the irony sometimes.

...Anyway, since people really thought i was serius with that post, i never use Amazon hourly, i just watch the monthly.
 
[3DS] 400k
[PS4] 1250k
[WIU] 225k
[XB1] 985k

The Uncharted bundle has done wonders for the UK from the PAL chart and at $350, it'll help the PS4 easily enough take 1st place for NPD.

The bundles also helped NDC go up +999% in that region so I'm very glad the potential fan base for Uncharted 4 will be enormous come March.
 

Shizza

Member
Account finally got approved after a few years, so here is my first prediction!

[3DS] 425K
[PS4] 1080K
[WIU] 375K
[XB1] 1040K
 
When you post stuff like that ina sales thread people take it as a legitimate indicator of sales trends. That's why you have to provide the context. Like the name of the chart/list. Without the context its too open for misinterpretation. Going by the cropping of the picture t is obvious Ryng went out of his/her way to obfuscate the source of the screencap and a regular member of SalesGAF should know better than to do something like that.

look at Mr. Can't Take a Joke over here
 
I'd love to see Sony release statistics on how many people are completing the Uncharted games from the collection.

Can't you just check the trophy list?

Wii U can't win. They don't even have a real account system going yet. No way to track MAUs. Let's get serious. No MAUs/No future.
 
I don't know. I've never once checked that.

http://psnprofiles.com/trophies/3938-Uncharted-Drakes-Fortune-Remastered

Boom.

Weird on differences. Maybe the site updates at weird times or something.

Dude, every piece of data on every single thing in the world of video games is bogus, made up, wrong or dumb. We should all just stop. Apply all this energy to solving real problems in the world. This thread alone could splice the human genome if we applied this in some productive way.
 

bigedole

Member
I've been lurking in these threads as a silent observer for what feels like years now. It is time to join the chaos!

[3DS] 405K
[PS4] 1200K
[WIU] 355K
[XB1] 1000K

Also, a dumb question. I can not for the life of me figure out how to get to the Amazon monthly list for best sellers other than by googling it. Is there a common sense way to navigate to it from Amazon's page that I'm just overlooking?
 
Also, a dumb question. I can not for the life of me figure out how to get to the Amazon monthly list for best sellers other than by googling it. Is there a common sense way to navigate to it from Amazon's page that I'm just overlooking?

Go to the yearly one and then tack on a -<month> to the year in the URL. Like change it from 2015 to 2015-11 to see November. Month is always two digits, so to see January would be 2015-01.
 

RexNovis

Banned
Dude... Call down, i was half joking with that post lol.

look at Mr. Can't Take a Joke over here

When someone has a reputation for providing analysis and data they are likely to be taken seriously. My statements weren't about whether I "got the joke" they were about whether other people would or whether they would be mislead by the purposeful exclusion of context. While I doubted the sincerity of the post I did not and still do not see any humor in it. Nor is it blatantly obvious that it isn't meant to be taken seriously.

I just cannot stand seeing misleading info get posted in these threads especially by people with a reputation for providing sakes data and analysis because I KNOW some will take it as #truthfact and that just means more pointless clarifications and debunking for us in the future. But Y2Kev made it clear that I should stop so I'm dropping it.
 
Weird, those percentages are different then the ones I'm getting when I check on PS4.

UC1: 33% on Easy
UC2: 34.9% on Easy
UC3: 30% on Easy

Of couse, PSN Profiles only tracks people who at least registered once on the site. They're tracking 2.433.630 people right now. Your PS4 tracks everyone.
 
Amazon must have shifted a ton of NDC PS4 bundles. It's currently in 22nd place for the year, and is the top console. It's only been on sale since last month. It's ahead of Bloodborne which was the highest selling console game at one point on the year for Amazon. Regular PS4 is 35th, and top XB1 is 50th (AC bundle). GOW XB1 bundle is 62nd.
 

RexNovis

Banned
Is there some sort of inside MAU joke I'm missing?

Some posters were talking about how sales figures aren't important metrics anymore and that it's all about MAUs (Monthly Active Users) because that's where everything is headed. But really it was just a defense of MS' decision to abandon reporting sales in favor of only reporting MAU instead. The argument that sales figures are not useful or meaningful seems to have, in some level, broken CosmicQueso.
 
Some posters were talking about how sales figures aren't important metrics anymore and that it's all about MAUs (Monthly Active Users) because that's where everything is headed. But really it was just a defense of MS' decision to abandon reporting sales in favor of only reporting MAU instead. The argument that sales figures are not useful or meaningful seems to have, in some level, broken CosmicQueso.

That's an understatement.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I imagine the next Guess ad

*shots of woman on beach*

*waves lapping against the sand*

*she mouths the word MAU*

*fade to black*
 

RexNovis

Banned
Doesn't seem like we will be getting any official PR about this Black Friday any time soon. I wonder if that means things are substantially down from last year. That would be especially surprising in the case of PS4 since it received a substantial price drop compared to last year's and it's sales last year weren't particularly impressive. It's also hard to believe that WiiU would be down given all the evidence we have to the contrary. Was really expecting to hear something from someone by now.
 
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