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[CLEEK]

FO is not that big of a IP compare to SW or COD .

Fallout as a franchise has never been on my radar. Doesn't fit in with my gaming tastes at all. I was really taken aback during E3 at just how big of a following the game has. I just though that was this vaguely popular game, but it's a multi million selling phenomenon with a dedicated fanbase. Fallout as an IP is massive.

The Fallout 4 reveal trailer on Youtube has been viewed 15.6m times. If memory serves, it hit 10m within a couple of weeks of being released.

Fallout 3 launch in Oct 2008 and by the end of the year had sold 4.7m copies. Fallout NV sold 5m in a month, and both saw a huge uptick in sales after FO4 showing at E3.

Based on the pre-orders for it, GAME (the UK's biggest retailer) is estimating that FO4 will outsell Skyrim (which has raked in over 20m sales).

 

[Chobel]

And how did those bundles do? All three games came out in late October/early November and having only one month notice in regards to announcing a bundle is a bad move and should be announced at least three months in advance. Have to let consumers look over the bundles and make their decision. Announcing a bundle close to the game's release is a mistake.

ACU bundle killed it, it sold a lot.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

Fallout as a franchise has never been on my radar. Doesn't fit in with my gaming tastes at all. I was really taken aback during E3 at just how big of a following the game has. I just though that was this vaguely popular game, but it's a multi million selling phenomenon with a dedicated fanbase. Fallout as an IP is massive.

The Fallout 4 reveal trailer on Youtube has been viewed 15.6m times. If memory serves, it hit 10m within a couple of weeks of being released.

Fallout 3 launch in Oct 2008 and by the end of the year had sold 4.7m copies. Fallout NV sold 5m in a month, and both saw a huge uptick in sales after FO4 showing at E3.

Based on the pre-orders for it, GAME (the UK's biggest retailer) is estimating that FO4 will outsell Skyrim (which has raked in over 20m sales).

I know all of that but IMO it's not as big as COD or SW.
Does COD still not sell 15 million plus every game still ?
Maybe i am underestimating FO growth but time will tell and it will be interesting to see what happens.

 

[Boke1879]

I know all of that but IMO it's not as big as COD or SW.
Does COD still not sell 15 million plus every game still ?
Maybe i am underestimating FO growth but time will tell and it will be interesting to see what happens.

I think FO will sell amazing. On both PS4 and Xbox but I see Battlefront moving more consoles in Sony's favor.

 

[Obliterator]

Fallout as a franchise has never been on my radar. Doesn't fit in with my gaming tastes at all. I was really taken aback during E3 at just how big of a following the game has. I just though that was this vaguely popular game, but it's a multi million selling phenomenon with a dedicated fanbase. Fallout as an IP is massive.

The Fallout 4 reveal trailer on Youtube has been viewed 15.6m times. If memory serves, it hit 10m within a couple of weeks of being released.

Fallout 3 launch in Oct 2008 and by the end of the year had sold 4.7m copies. Fallout NV sold 5m in a month, and both saw a huge uptick in sales after FO4 showing at E3.

Based on the pre-orders for it, GAME (the UK's biggest retailer) is estimating that FO4 will outsell Skyrim (which has raked in over 20m sales).

Yeah, its going to be absolutely massive

 

[gundamkyoukai]

I think FO will sell amazing. On both PS4 and Xbox but I see Battlefront moving more consoles in Sony's favor.

It hard to tell just how much hardware Sony will sell since they have so many options .
Something like a BF and COD bundle for $400 would be crazy in DEC.

 

[Boke1879]

It hard to tell just how much hardware Sony will sell since they have so many options .

Exactly. I just don't know. They can literally do nothing and let the bundles sell themselves or when it gets closer to the Holidays they can make some big splashes and bundle already released games with these things.

 

[Square2015]

PS4 in its 21st month vs. previous PlayStations:

So the PS4 LTD is 8.5m.
Compare to:
PS3 5.0m
PS2 9.7m
PS1 3.0m

 

[CLEEK]

I know all of that but IMO it's not as big as COD or SW.
Does COD still not sell 15 million plus every game still ?
Maybe i am underestimating FO growth but time will tell and it will be interesting to see what happens.

FO4 will outsell SW. Obviously Star Wars as a brand is bigger than anything, but not so much in the videogame space.

CoD is the bigger brand and is highly likely to outsell FO4, but FO4 will be in the same ball park. Both will sell multiple millions at launch.

Another thing about Fallout I was surprised about is that I'd always thought of it as primarily a PC game, but console sales made up the vast majority of FO3 and FO NV sales.

 

[stryke]

PS4 in its 21st month vs. previous PlayStations:

So the PS4 LTD is 8.5m.
Compare to:
PS3 5.0m
PS2 9.7m
PS1 3.0m

Any interesting annotations to put in such as pricecuts?

 

[RespectThySole]

They might have similar sales throughout the Holidays, but in the long term Fallout 4 will easily outsell Battlefront.

 

[StrongBlackVine]

What I mean wrt Ninty's IP and fanbase is that they have the most stalwart fans who will buy their products regardless. And they have the most hardware driving IP out of the three. I might be conflating handheld audiences with console audiences, however.



Probably right, as my 'prediction' is based more on intuition and personal taste than numbers. Still, looking at it from a bettor-at-the-racetrack perspective, I'd go M-N-S for win, place, show assuming no $100 gimmick on any of the boxes.

The only time Sony has lost is when they had expensive "gimmicks"(Cell processor, BluRay which lead to $599). All things being equal PlayStation is the dominant brand and has been since day one. Xbox in particular is regional brand and would have to absolutely dominate the U.S. again(extremely unlikely) to win.

 

[Chobel]

PS4 in its 21st month vs. previous PlayStations:

So the PS4 LTD is 8.5m.
Compare to:
PS3 5.0m
PS2 9.7m
PS1 3.0m

That jump in PS2 sales from Month 14 to Month 15 is huge, what happened at month 15?

 

[Welfare]

Not necessarily. Microsoft announced the AC, COD:AW, and SSO bundles last October.

COD and SO bundles were Gamescom announcements. AC was in October.

And how did those bundles do? All three games came out in late October/early November and having only one month notice in regards to announcing a bundle is a bad move and should be announced at least three months in advance. Have to let consumers look over the bundles and make their decision. Announcing a bundle close to the game's release is a mistake.

In just November, the CoD bundle did 200k. AC bundle did <829k. They did alright I think.

That jump in PS2 sales from Month 14 to Month 15 is huge, what happened at month 15?

That was its first December after the launch year. Back then, December would mostly do more than double that of November.

 

[StrongBlackVine]

@ Bold, looking at the game sales on Xbox 360, there seems to be a lot of user base on that console that still needs to upgrade. So yeah it will do very well.

And I don't know what you did there, but you did prove my point that just like Fallout will sell PS4s, COD and Battlefront WILL sell Xbox Ones. I know what you guys are saying that movie and the game momentum at the same time. But you assuming that EVERYONE will only think that its on PS4. We have seen Microsoft marketing in past, during when Destiny launched. There is always a way to do market awareness without bundling, which isn't as effective as bundling I get it. But they can still give away free battlefront games with the console. Didn't Destiny sell almost similar number of copies in states despite that crazy Sony marketing? Well shooters tend to do well on Xbox One no matter how you look at.

COD player won't one day just wake up and think its exclusive to PS4 so I need to buy PS4 now. There are also shooter fans out there would think well which console where I can get Halo, COD, Battlefront, Fallout. And there are MORE shooter fans on Xbox than on PlayStation.

Bigger percentage yes. More, no.

 

[CLEEK]

That was its first December after launch. Back then, December would mostly do more than double that of November.

Second December. The PS2 launched in the US during Oct 2000. The big surge in sales in the holiday period for 2001.

 

[Square2015]

That jump in PS2 sales from Month 14 to Month 15 is huge, what happened at month 15?

Christmas 2001.

Price drops added:

 

[kyser73]

I see that as their strategy as well. A real price drop won't happen until they can shift their apu to 16nm and they can actually make the console for less money, so 2016. Sony isn't interested in being in markets that they cannot be profitable in.

Looking forward 3.5 years:

So we have MS who is willing to sell at a loss and Nintendo which has the best IP and fanbase in gaming competing against Sony. Given Sony's shitastic IP and unwillingness to loss lead, I'm not betting on them for gen 9.

Microsoft historically has had no problem underwriting loss making divisions, so all they have to do is not make a stupid x1 again in order to have the most powerful yet no more expensive console. And because Nintendo has all that Nintendo IP, as long as they don't make a piece of 10 year old garbage, sony could easily be number 3 in 2019.

So you're betting against Sony not being successful NEXT gen or are you saying they're going to be losers by the end of this gen?

What? Where do you get this from? Nintendo's fanbase for home consoles are the people who've bought WiiUs this gen, bought about 20% of Wiis last gen, and bought the GCN in gen 6 - it's also a number that will likely have dwindled even further than the WiiU userbase by next gen unless the NX is something really special.

MS could build a better console than X1, but outside the US who will buy it? If Sony & MS release comparably specced NG consoles around 2018/19 what is going to motivate non-US buyers to go back to MS, especially if Morpheus has proven to be a success and the PS5 is built around it.

 

[Final Verdict]

I feel like Xbox could move so many units if they decided to make fallout 4 their big holiday bundle!
Unfortunately they will most likely stick it out with tomb raider.

Sony on the other hand will likely coast on a SW bundle that will do very well.

 

[Welfare]

Second December. The PS2 launched in the US during Oct 2000. The big surge in sales in the holiday period for 2001.

That's what I meant. Should've typed launch year then.

 

[Dyson Industries]

@ Bold, looking at the game sales on Xbox 360, there seems to be a lot of user base on that console that still needs to upgrade. So yeah it will do very well.

And I don't know what you did there, but you did prove my point that just like Fallout will sell PS4s, COD and Battlefront WILL sell Xbox Ones. I know what you guys are saying that movie and the game momentum at the same time. But you assuming that EVERYONE will only think that its on PS4. We have seen Microsoft marketing in past, during when Destiny launched. There is always a way to do market awareness without bundling, which isn't as effective as bundling I get it. But they can still give away free battlefront games with the console. Didn't Destiny sell almost similar number of copies in states despite that crazy Sony marketing? Well shooters tend to do well on Xbox One no matter how you look at.

COD player won't one day just wake up and think its exclusive to PS4 so I need to buy PS4 now. There are also shooter fans out there would think well which console where I can get Halo, COD, Battlefront, Fallout. And there are MORE shooter fans on Xbox than on PlayStation.

Well that's a lot of wishful thinking there.

 

[SolarMystic]

Christmas 2001.

Price drops added:

Would be interesting to see how that 1st price drop effected the ps2 sales growth, as we can only see one month of the price drop in that chart.

I think Sony should really look into dropping the ps4 price this holiday, or spring 2016. Not because the ps4 is selling poor (its selling very well) but to keep sales momentum going up.

 

[Final Verdict]

So you're betting against Sony not being successful NEXT gen or are you saying they're going to be losers by the end of this gen?

What? Where do you get this from? Nintendo's fanbase for home consoles are the people who've bought WiiUs this gen, bought about 20% of Wiis last gen, and bought the GCN in gen 6 - it's also a number that will likely have dwindled even further than the WiiU userbase by next gen unless the NX is something really special.

MS could build a better console than X1, but outside the US who will buy it? If Sony & MS release comparably specced NG consoles around 2018/19 what is going to motivate non-US buyers to go back to MS, especially if Morpheus has proven to be a success and the PS5 is built around it.

These are good points, but it seems like every single Generation without fail, at least one company screws up.

-Nintendo messed up with the odd choice of mini disk in the 6th gen, Sony screwed up in 7th gen with the cell processor, price, and bad PR, and Nintendo/MS both screwed up this generation with weaker HW, and mandatory control accessories such as Kinect and the game pad.

Now I am not about to make any predictions for next generation as I would someday undoubtedly then look back on my past self with horrifying regret- But I will simply point out that anything and everything can and most likely will happen. So just because PlayStation has been a dominant brand in the past and present does not guarantee that it will remain that way forever.

Either one of the big three, or all of them (or none of them, though not likely) could screw up with next generation. Though, as it stands currently, it would take a great amount of controversy accompanied with poor decision making to bring down the PlayStation brand from its throne.

 

[John Harker]

The U.S. is the only market that matters when it comes to making deals?

Depends where the company is based, and which branch is making a deal.
I.e., is it a subsidiary? what territory is the lead? Not all regions have equal goals or budgets..

Also portfolio is a factor.
It's not as black and what as many people are trying to distill it,

 

[serversurfer]

Nor likely as muddy as others are trying to make it&#8230;

 

[yukianderson]

Sony has yet to speak of the price of the star wars bundle. The ineblebe COD is probably going to be announced next. In my opinion I think they will lower the price by 50 dollars and these bundles and probably a uncharted colección bundle as well. They ride out the holidays and with the 50 dollar price drop plus the bundles they will probably win the holidays. The thing is even if Sony wins by a small margin or MS does manage to win a month or two the first half of 2016 is simply stack in Sony's favor. This means that even if Microsoft does win a month or two Sony could easily drop another 50 bucks just before uncharted and make it up. A price drop will happen I think this is the reason no price was mention with the bundles. Is always posible that Sony could skip right to the 299 price but I think that with the 350 price and the bundles that are coming besides all the other side marketing games they have I think is enough to win even if by a slim margin or potentially a small lost.

 

[Chobel]

Depends where the company is based, and which branch is making a deal.
I.e., is it a subsidiary? what territory is the lead? Not all regions have equal goals or budgets..

Also portfolio is a factor.
It's not as black and what as many people are trying to distill it,

What do you think about this?

...some people think it's somehow less expensive to sign third-party exclusives if you have a bigger market-share. I can tell you, it has nothing to do with market share.

When you go in to do a deal, with a third party, that third party has its own view of the global market and the value of it. And they should, they should think about their assets and how valuable they are, just like anyone would when they are selling their goods...

From http://www.gamespot.com/articles/xbox-one-interview-phil-spencer-on-microsofts-firs/1100-6429471/

-----------------------------------------------

Also could tell us how 1TB XBO SKU is doing in comparison to 500GB XBO SKUs?

 

[Steverulez]

What do you think about this?

From http://www.gamespot.com/articles/xbox-one-interview-phil-spencer-on-microsofts-firs/1100-6429471/

If you're going to add that quote you should probably mention the one below it too

When you go in to do a deal, with a third party, that third party has its own view of the global market and the value of it. And they should, they should think about their assets and how valuable they are, just like anyone would when they are selling their goods...

 

[Chobel]

If you're going to add that quote you should probably mention the one below it too

OK, will do.

 

[hodayathink]

Fallout as a franchise has never been on my radar. Doesn't fit in with my gaming tastes at all. I was really taken aback during E3 at just how big of a following the game has. I just though that was this vaguely popular game, but it's a multi million selling phenomenon with a dedicated fanbase. Fallout as an IP is massive.

The Fallout 4 reveal trailer on Youtube has been viewed 15.6m times. If memory serves, it hit 10m within a couple of weeks of being released.

Fallout 3 launch in Oct 2008 and by the end of the year had sold 4.7m copies. Fallout NV sold 5m in a month, and both saw a huge uptick in sales after FO4 showing at E3.

Based on the pre-orders for it, GAME (the UK's biggest retailer) is estimating that FO4 will outsell Skyrim (which has raked in over 20m sales).

I don't know if Fallout is going to have the insane legs that Skyrim has, though. I can easily see it tracking as selling better at launch, but I don't know if that means it'll sell as well or better than Skyrim after a year or two.

 

[etta]

What do you think about this?


From http://www.gamespot.com/articles/xbox-one-interview-phil-spencer-on-microsofts-firs/1100-6429471/

So it depends what game it is when negotiating marketing rights? For example, if Call of Duty were to be NA-centric, given the NA's split between XBO and PS4, there wouldn't be much difference in the price for marketing rights?

 

[gundamkyoukai]

Early on in the thread we had quote from Jim ryan saying market share does matter .
There other factors at play but i would think the 2 most important factors are market share and cash .
Everything else would be behind those two .

 

[Chobel]

So it depends what game it is when negotiating marketing rights? For example, if Call of Duty were to be NA-centric, given the NA's split between XBO and PS4, there wouldn't be much difference in the price for marketing rights?

I'm sure CoD is global phenomena.

 

[Jigorath]

So it depends what game it is when negotiating marketing rights? For example, if Call of Duty were to be NA-centric, given the NA's split between XBO and PS4, there wouldn't be much difference in the price for marketing rights?

Call of Duty is huge everywhere.

 

[etta]

So it depends what game it is when negotiating marketing rights? For example, if Call of Duty were to be NA-centric, given the NA's split between XBO and PS4, there wouldn't be much difference in the price for marketing rights?

I'm sure CoD is global phenomena.

Call of Duty is huge everywhere.

?

 

[Chobel]

?

Sorry I didn't see the "if" part XD.

The answer to your question: there are other factors to consider, but WW marketshare isn't one of them.

 

[John Harker]

It's not about "marketing rights," it's a barter deal. You tag me in $10mm worth of media, I'll tag you in $5mm of my media plus I'll throw throw in $5mm of endemic owned channels against my core base.

So now I have some form of exclusive to communicate to the market and to increase my share of voice on a title, and your $10mm budget is now $20mm.

All of this is random illustrative purposes only

 

[Chobel]

It's not about "marketing rights," it's a barter deal. You tag me in $10mm worth of media, I'll tag you in $5mm of my media plus I'll throw throw in $5mm of endemic owned channels against my core base.

So now I have some form of exclusive to communicate to the market and to increase my share of voice on a title, and your $10mm budget is now $20mm.

All of this is random illustrative purposes only

Don't these marketing deals also involve less royalties beside the media marketing?

 

[Cthulhu_Steev]

As I said before, end-caps in trailers switching platforms will not eliminate the history COD has had with Xbox.

Schoolyard preference and aspirations of a professional gaming/streaming career (big tournaments now using PS4) will swing it way past the impact of the advert stings.

 

[etta]

Schoolyard preference and aspirations of a professional gaming/streaming career (big tournaments now using PS4) will swing it way past the impact of the advert stings.

Have tournaments gotten past the Dualshock 4's data-over-Bluetooth-only when used on the PS4?

 

[Fat4all]

Have tournaments gotten past the Dualshock 4's data-over-Bluetooth-only when used on the PS4?

Plugging a DS4 into a console turns the DS4 into a wired controller, latency-wise.

 

[travisbickle]

What do you think about this?


From http://www.gamespot.com/articles/xbox-one-interview-phil-spencer-on-microsofts-firs/1100-6429471/

He's probably talking specifically about EA because God knows what other reason there is for them to do yet another year of FIFA exclusive content on XB1 in Europe!

 

[Liabe Brave]

Nor likely as muddy as others are trying to make it…

You can seriously rely on John Harker knowing his stuff when it comes to videogame marketing. He's been in or around that business for years, and I can't recall ever seeing him push much of a personal agenda. While he's very circumspect about leaking data, what he has dropped over time has given us glimpses into a part of the industry that's usually completely hidden. For just one example, he's shown that Nintendo's "blue ocean" hits on Wii and DS were more than just luck. Brain Training had an absolutely enormous marketing budget.

Given his past insights, I'm definitely willing to give him the benefit of the doubt here.

 

[John Harker]

Don't these marketing deals also involve less royalties beside the media marketing?

It can. A deal can be anything really.
It's not like a white label solution, everyone brings something to the table.

 

[kyser73]

These are good points, but it seems like every single Generation without fail, at least one company screws up.

-Nintendo messed up with the odd choice of mini disk in the 6th gen, Sony screwed up in 7th gen with the cell processor, price, and bad PR, and Nintendo/MS both screwed up this generation with weaker HW, and mandatory control accessories such as Kinect and the game pad.

Now I am not about to make any predictions for next generation as I would someday undoubtedly then look back on my past self with horrifying regret- But I will simply point out that anything and everything can and most likely will happen. So just because PlayStation has been a dominant brand in the past and present does not guarantee that it will remain that way forever.

Either one of the big three, or all of them (or none of them, though not likely) could screw up with next generation. Though, as it stands currently, it would take a great amount of controversy accompanied with poor decision making to bring down the PlayStation brand from its throne.

Yeah, and even when Sony screw up, they still made a console that has now sold ~90m units which is still more than any manufacturer from any previous gen (by this I mean the PS3 as a failure still sold more units than the lead consoles from the 8 & 16-bit generations). MS will be lucky to get to 50m on the back of a similar screw-up, and Ninty isn't going to match the GCN this gen.

TLR - even when they screw up, just in terms of numbers Sony have at least matched their competition.

Completely agree with your last paragraph as well.

Phil Spencer is being disingenuous saying market share 'doesn't matter' - of course it matters. It isn't the only significant factor, or even the biggest, but to dismiss it out of hand is pretty tricksy. I mean seriously - were MS not in any way trumpeting their 2:1 lead in the US last gen when negotiating marketing partnerships? That's not the MS I've had to negotiate on behalf of (or indeed against!) in the past.

 

[Chobel]

It can. A deal can be anything really.
It's not like a white label solution, everyone brings something to the table.

Thanks for the answers!

Another question not really related to NPD, it's more businesses side of things: I heard that platform holders can negotiate deals with publishers so some multipat games stay console exclusive for at least some period of time, notable example is GTA.

Hypothetically is that possible for platform holders to do and delay PC ports? And has this actually happened?

 

[Javin98]

The only way Sony could win is by selling PS4 cheaper than Xbox One this holiday. Which isn't happening.

You seem to really want the XB1 to win and don't seem to use any logic in this post...

 

[StrongBlackVine]

You seem to really want the XB1 to win and don't seem to use any logic in this post...

It is really the exact complete. The only way Xbox One can sell more is by being cheaper. I think the value of two products to the market has been established.

*edit* It is also weird how Nintendo is just completely irrelevant now although it has been that way for a while. Hope this NX project is actually something worth buying.

 

[Javin98]

It is really the exact complete. The only way Xbox One can sell more is by being cheaper. I think the value of two products to the market has been established.

Indeed. The PS4 has been outselling the XB1 for several months now, except April, despite being $50 more expensive. Now factor in the price drop which is due next month or October and I think at the very least, the PS4 will be quite close to the XB1 in sales during the holiday season. If Sony really does drop the price of the standalone 500GB PS4 to $299, then the PS4 definitely has a very good chance to win the holiday season. Also, correct me if I'm wrong, but the prices for the Star Wars bundles have yet to be announced, right? Possibly waiting for the price drop before announcing the price.

Edit: LOL, Fallout is a bigger IP than Star Wars now? In the gaming world, sure, but I'm willing to bet those Star Wars bundles will pull in a lot more people than gamers. Some posters here seem to be underestimating the Star Wars hype, which will be huge in November.

 

[allan-bh]

Edit: LOL, Fallout is a bigger IP than Star Wars now? In the gaming world, sure, but I'm willing to bet those Star Wars bundles will pull in a lot more people than gamers. Some posters here seem to be underestimating the Star Wars hype, which will be huge in November.

I'm feeling that people may be overestimating Battlefront potential because of the movie.

Honestly I don't think the game will be so huge, but will sell well of course.