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[Threi]

Care to point out WHY? All I see is a very circular argument.

Why do third parties need to step it up when Nintendo doesn't have to? That's what my argument boils down to.

What exactly do you mean by "step it up"

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

For someone looking for a party/boardgame game, what would you recommend that they buy instead of Mario Party?

Monopoly.

Or Trouble, I guess.

Trivial Pursuit is okay for a go or two.

Nah, fuck it, Monopoly.

 

[crazyscreenwriter]

Monopoly.

Or Trouble, I guess.

Trivial Pursuit is okay for a go or two.

Nah, fuck it, Monopoly.

SCENEIT!

 

[FIREBABY]

So, will PS3 be back to its normal sub 100k, next month? Will the 360 mange to beat the Wii for 1 month(unlikely)? How much and which titles released late in the month will bomb? These are the only important questions for September NPD for me. The PS3 will most likely get its ass handed to it next month if they only managed to sell 130k for August. What big releases do they have for this month?

 

[Joust Williams]

SCENEIT!

Exactly. That won't sell because it's not a game for the 360 audience. This just goes to show that quality is not the barometer of sales. And what is the Nintendo audience? People who like mini-games and Nintendo fans. So which games would you expect to sell the best? It isn't quality that's selling them. Same reason Two Worlds broke 100K despite being terrible in every sense of the word.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

No doubt football fans are hugely diverse, but I don't think the stereotype of the core football audience is too far off.

Similarly, these numbers speak for themselves: Wii and Madden are selling to largely distinct audiences (i.e. with relatively little overlap). I suspect we'll see the same relatively poor sales from the usual pro wrestling, NASCAR, Def-Jam, mee-too shooter/sandbox game that appeals to that same audience.

What the hell is this crap?

Madden has a huge fanbase among non-white gamers as well (have you ever seen the Madden championships? Or watch cribs with any male athlete? Those aren't all angry white guys). Sports/racing games in general are a huge market that's impossible to ignore. Even Japan and Europe have Winning Eleven, FIFA, Gran Turismo, and Need for Speed.

How can the Wii be 'the next PS2' if the fanbase doesn't support every kind of game or more importantly, devs don't see potential for certain kinds of games on the console?

Gotta love how you dumped every genre that sells well on non-Nintendo consoles into the same demographic.

No matter how great the Wii's userbase becomes, devs will never turn their backs on 360/PS3 if you see these kind of ratios on sports, shooters, racers, sandbox or fighting games.

 

[jarrod]

All of them that don't sell well. A lot of "Madden 08 Wii will be close to 360 sales; 07 Wii was the best version" went on about a month ago. When SSX Blur didn't sell, it was because it was "marketed poorly". It's pretty much across the board, really.

Madden certainly didn't do too well this month but eh... it's never been a mass title for Nintendo. No EA game has histroically actually, but even there we're seeing some games do surprisingly well on Wii given the circumstances (Tiger Woods being an example).

And how's poor marketing translate to "well, that game doesn't deserve to sell anyway"? You seem to be the main one here trying to correlate sales to game quality, in between unfounded Mario Party bashings.

VJ had good early buzz as a Nintendo title if only because it was one of the "exclusive" Capcom 5 (the fact that it kicked ass and breathed some new life into the genre also didn't hurt either). I think the IGN guys' push will spur Zak & Wiki sales amongst the more "Nintendo faithful" but I dont see how it'll ever even show up on the casuals' radar.

Eh, that may be enough though. Niche underdogs like Super Monkey Ball, Viewtiful Joe or Tales of Symphonia last gen set a good example of how preaching to the choir can actually work pretty well for 3rd parties.... and I think Zak & Wiki's definitely following in their footsteps so far.

 

[jarrod]

No matter how great the Wii's userbase becomes, devs will never turn their backs on 360/PS3 if you see these kind of ratios on sports, shooters, racers, sandbox or fighting games.

Agreed, though for fighters, basically everything's tanked everywhere barring DOA4. :/

 

[Kintaro]

And why is PS3 always getting a free pass in these discussions? There's a system with several genuine third party bombs and really crummy overall performance.

That tends to happen when said 3rd party games are delayed after (sometimes, much later) their release on 360.

i think Umbrella Chronicles will be more of a litmus test. we saw how the RE4 port sold... but how much will an original project carrying a brand that's seen some success on the console do?

Why in the world would you use a light gun game as a litmus test for anything? That is, essentially, what you're saying to do. Resident Evil 4 is one thing, it's a classic. Umbrella Chronicles is a light gun game. Nothing will change that and people will see that ASAP and think twice. That being said, it'll be good numbers as such, but as a litmus test? I don't know about that.

But if you want the game cheap, I suggest waiting a week when used copies come back in by the truck load.

 

[mepaco]

Exactly. That won't sell because it's not a game for the 360 audience. This just goes to show that quality is not the barometer of sales. And what is the Nintendo audience? People who like mini-games and Nintendo fans. So which games would you expect to sell the best?

As pointed out before, you are trying to twist this into something else. The third party games that are quality have sold well; others have not. That is how it should be.

As for the rest of this, there are always games that will sell better than they should. PS3 Madden didn't exactly receive rave reviews but did anyone doubt that it would sell well, even if it was total crap. Sometimes it is just the name, sometimes it is the only thing in a certain market segment, sometimes people just get tricked. In any case, the taste of the mainstream differs from that of critics. I hate American Idol, Big Brother, and Deal or No Deal but I'm not naive enough to think that they don't do well in the ratings.

 

[KeithFranklin]

Tie-in ratios can be misleading. The Wii sold 403k this month, and if the tie-in is 3, then every single one of buyer would have to buy 3 games (1.209 million total) this month. Otherwise the ratio falls.

I realize there's existing Wii owners to pick up that slack but when the userbase is still young (10 months) and expanding like crazy the tie-in can get wonky.

He said Lifetime to Date (LTD) not August Tie Ratio.

 

[Dai Kaiju]

So, I just went out and bought Blue Dragon after seeing the low numbers, and I hate myself for it. I feel like such a fucking...gaffer.

 

[Jokeropia]

Exactly. That won't sell because it's not a game for the 360 audience. This just goes to show that quality is not the barometer of sales. And what is the Nintendo audience? People who like mini-games and Nintendo fans. So which games would you expect to sell the best?

Which group is the one buying RE4, Red Steel, DQ:S, Trauma Center etc.?

 

[Shig]

[Scene It] won't sell because it's not a game for the 360 audience.

Methinks you're in for a rude awakening.

 

[Joust Williams]

I love how it's "etc." when it's the same couple of games every single time. The 360 doesn't seem to have this problem. And, coincidentally enough, its software-selling prowess is never called into question from publishers. Funny that.

 

[ChrisJames]

So, I just went out and bought Blue Dragon after seeing the low numbers, and I hate myself for it. I feel like such a fucking...gaffer.

It's a good ass game, so don't feel bad. It sold 50+K in only 4 days, which isn't that bad. I think it'll have legs...

 

[mepaco]

I love how it's "etc." when it's the same couple of games every single time. The 360 doesn't seem to have this problem. And, coincidentally enough, its software-selling prowess never called into question from publishers. Funny that.

Again, what other games should have sold well? Until you can adequately answer this question, you have nothing to stand on in this argument.

 

[speculawyer]

I see a lot of butt-hurt people in here because Wii's sales are raping their console of choice, GAFs criteria for winning the "console warz":

Hardware sold>Software sold>Third party software sold

Wii wins the the console war. End of story. I don't give a crap about who 'wins' the console . . . I think a 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 split would be cool.

But a discussion on third party software sales is very interesting to some people like me. It has a big implications on how third party publishers allocate their software development budgets. If you think it is irrelevent, then please stay out of those discussions. From my perspective have nothing to do about fanboy console wars but unfortunately fanboy defense forces arrive to pollute the discussion.

 

[speculawyer]

lol

I bet Sony themselves hate SDF for being a PR Nightmare. :lol

Well, that SDF argument was the exact same one that official Sony PR used. . . . the 'Playstation brand' spin.

 

[Joust Williams]

Again, what other games should have sold well?

Hmm, going by gamerankings.com, I see loads of third party games ahead of MP8 that have nowhere near the sales. Good enough? I see loads ahead of Pokemon that don't even have the sales. I see loads ahead of Excite Truck that don't have the sales.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

That tends to happen when said 3rd party games are delayed after (sometimes, much later) their release on 360.



Why in the world would you use a light gun game as a litmus test for anything? That is, essentially, what you're saying to do. Resident Evil 4 is one thing, it's a classic. Umbrella Chronicles is a light gun game. Nothing will change that and people will see that ASAP and think twice. That being said, it'll be good numbers as such, but as a litmus test? I don't know about that.

But if you want the game cheap, I suggest waiting a week when used copies come back in by the truck load.

I have a feeling RE UC will outsell RE4 Wii, and the difference will be at least 2:1 in Japan.

DQ Swords is an on-rails spinoff game, look how well that sold.

 

[AceBandage]

Hmm, going by gamerankings.com, I see loads of third party games ahead of MP8 that have nowhere near the sales. Good enough? I see loads ahead of Pokemon that don't even have the sales. I see loads ahead of Excite Truck that don't have the sales.

Ratings have little to do with sales. The question is, how many Wii games aren't ports, were advertised well, and still sold badly?
I can't think of any, myself.

 

[speculawyer]

So, will PS3 be back to its normal sub 100k, next month? Will the 360 mange to beat the Wii for 1 month(unlikely)? How much and which titles released late in the month will bomb? These are the only important questions for September NPD for me. The PS3 will most likely get its ass handed to it next month if they only managed to sell 130k for August. What big releases do they have for this month?

My guess is that it will clear the 100K mark but not by much. The reduced price plus Warhawk, Heavenly Sword, Stranglehold, and some of the older good titles will help it stay above 100K. But that is not saying much.

 

[Aquanox]

Well, that SDF argument was the exact same one that official Sony PR used. . . . the 'Playstation brand' spin.

They actually did?

Oh well. I probably forgot their concept of a good PR management isn't necessarily the most congruent either.

 

[Son of Godzilla]

Ratings have little to do with sales. The question is, how many Wii games aren't ports, were advertised well, and still sold badly?
I can't think of any, myself.

Metroid Prime: Corruption

 

[AceBandage]

Metroid Prime: Corruption

Bad, SoG.
Bad.

 

[Joust Williams]

Ratings have little to do with sales.

THAT'S WHAT I AM SAYING. For every game that doesn't sell well, it will be:
"not a good game anyway"
"not marketed well"

It's just an excuse factory. If Madden Wii sold 900K, it would be like, "SEE THIRD PARTIES SELL WELL NINTENDOMINATION CONFIRMED ZOOLANDERS RISE TO HEAVEN MONEY PRINT GIFS". Now it's "oh, it wasn't good, Wii owners know quality".

 

[jarrod]

I love how it's "etc." when it's the same couple of games every single time. The 360 doesn't seem to have this problem. And, coincidentally enough, its software-selling prowess is never called into question from publishers. Funny that.

360's also a bit older though... it did do a bit better 3rd party wise first year, but it also had more ground up, higher profile efforts to go along with that. And 360 1st year was a 1st party wasteland after launch too.


Also, PS3.

 

[Kintaro]

I have a feeling RE UC will outsell RE4 Wii, and the difference will be at least 2:1 in Japan.

DQ Swords is an on-rails spinoff game, look how well that sold.

I wouldn't compare the brand power of Resident Evil to Dragon Quest. Doesn't even come close.

I guess we'll see how sales go. I don't see it selling as high as RE4, however, sales will be quite good for a game in it's genre.

 

[AceBandage]

THAT'S WHAT I AM SAYING. For every game that doesn't sell well, it will be:
"not a good game anyway"
"not marketed well"

It's just an excuse factory. If Madden Wii sold 900K, it would be like, "SEE THIRD PARTIES SELL WELL NINTENDOMINATION CONFIRMED ZOOLANDERS". Now it's "oh, it wasn't good, Wii owners know quality".

Ok, so how many games do fit into the "Good game, good marketing, sold badly" category on the Wii?
Are those excuses really invalid?

 

[Jokeropia]

I love how it's "etc." when it's the same couple of games every single time. The 360 doesn't seem to have this problem. And, coincidentally enough, its software-selling prowess is never called into question from publishers. Funny that.

360 already had much better third party support than Wii in this point of it's life. (You can add Dragon Ball Z: Budokai Tenkaichi 2, Sonic Wii and Tiger Woods to the list btw. I put the "etc." because there's always some games I forget about.) Conversely, how many games that sold worse than they should have/were expected to can you name?

 

[KeithFranklin]

Well, put me in the "Xbox to lose September" camp.

I am on the fence camp.

I expect 360 sales to be very healthy with Halo 3, but it is a 5 week month and I fully expect the Wii to do 400K+ again with it being a 5 week month. How many 360 supporters are predicting 400K+ in September? My expectation is Halo 3 will cause an increase the rest of the way and November and December will be when 360 outsells the Wii. Wii sales slipping 30K a week in Japan isnt enough to stockpile for the US. Not to mention it is in November that I expect the mainstream press to be declaring the 360 to be the console to get this holiday with the fabulouse line up of games.

 

[mepaco]

THAT'S WHAT I AM SAYING. For every game that doesn't sell well, it will be:
"not a good game anyway"
"not marketed well"

It's just an excuse factory. If Madden Wii sold 900K, it would be like, "SEE THIRD PARTIES SELL WELL NINTENDOMINATION CONFIRMED ZOOLANDERS RISE TO HEAVEN MONEY PRINT GIFS". Now it's "oh, it wasn't good, Wii owners know quality".

Did you completely skip my previous post? THERE WILL ALWAYS BE GAMES THAT SELL BETTER THAN THEY SHOULD. How many great games sold poorly on PS2? How many awesome games were outsold by the same rehashed Madden every year? A game being outsold by Mario Party does not mean that the game sold poorly.

 

[Joust Williams]

Ok, so how many games do fit into the "Good game, good marketing, sold badly" category on the Wii?

Madden has higher scores. Lots of name brand appeal. Lots of commercials. Will sell like 25% as well as Mario Party. Will sell worse than Mario Party 7, which was what, the FOURTH GC MP game?

 

[AceBandage]

Madden has higher scores. Lots of name brand appeal. Lots of commercials. Will sell like 25% as well as Mario Party.

How many of those commercials showed off why the Wii version should be bought over the other versions?
Did any of them show the new features that were added to the Wii version that weren't in the others?

 

[FIREBABY]

My guess is that it will clear the 100K mark but not by much. The reduced price plus Warhawk, Heavenly Sword, Stranglehold, and some of the older good titles will help it stay above 100K. But that is not saying much.

Exactly. Even in a 5 week month. 4 if you really want to count Halo3 making a difference for hardware sells.

 

[Xisiqomelir]

Exactly. That won't sell because it's not a game for the 360 audience. This just goes to show that quality is not the barometer of sales. And what is the Nintendo audience? People who like mini-games and Nintendo fans. So which games would you expect to sell the best? It isn't quality that's selling them. Same reason Two Worlds broke 100K despite being terrible in every sense of the word.

Oh good, we're doing this again.

 

[Joust Williams]

Did any of them show the new features that were added to the Wii version that weren't in the others?

See Mario Party 7.

 

[jarrod]

Madden has higher scores. Lots of name brand appeal. Lots of commercials. Will sell like 25% as well as Mario Party. Will sell worse than Mario Party 7, which was what, the FOURTH GC MP game?

Third tier port doesn't outsell high profile exclusive, news at 11! :lol

 

[Joust Williams]

It had no trouble outselling Bioshock (which is sad, but whatever). And Bioshock had no trouble selling half a million copies at 60 and 70 dollars.

 

[AceBandage]

See Mario Party 7.

What about it?
An exclusive that was advertised well, and showed off new games, sold well.
Meanwhile, a multiplatform game (Madden), didn't show off any of the unique Wii features that would have given it an edge, sold poorly.

 

[jarrod]

I am on the fence camp.

I expect 360 sales to be very healthy with Halo 3, but it is a 5 week month and I fully expect the Wii to do 400K+ again with it being a 5 week month. How many 360 supporters are predicting 400K+ in September? My expectation is Halo 3 will cause an increase the rest of the way and November and December will be when 360 outsells the Wii. Wii sales slipping 30K a week in Japan isnt enough to stockpile for the US. Not to mention it is in November that I expect the mainstream press to be declaring the 360 to be the console to get this holiday with the fabulouse line up of games.

November's Mario month though... really I can see it going either way in terms of the press too. :/

I think 360's going to do better in September for sure though.

 

[jarrod]

It had no trouble outselling Bioshock (which is sad, but whatever).

Which version, 360 SKU, PC SKU or Steam download?

 

[Joust Williams]

All of them combined.

 

[jarrod]

All of them combined.

Do they combine to reveal the exclusive version then? :lol

 

[Jokeropia]

My guess is that it will clear the 100K mark but not by much. The reduced price plus Warhawk, Heavenly Sword, Stranglehold, and some of the older good titles will help it stay above 100K. But that is not saying much.

If nothing else, the extra week should do it.

Metroid Prime: Corruption

It sold more in 4/5 days in August than Prime 2 sold in two full weeks in November.

 

[Kintaro]

<throws .02 cents in>

I see 360 getting a nice boost from Halo 3, but I still don't see it beating Wii. Not just in September, but for the rest of the year. Wii, somehow, is still on "See it, buy it" alert in the US and I doubt that'll change all year. DS will also start rising back up as well. Especially when Zelda hits. Both Wii and DS will continue at 400k+ for the rest of the year, 360 will have a month or two at high 300k, then will slide back down. PS3 will look like it's on life support and we'll wonder when Sony will wake the fuck up.

 

[PorkandBeans]

Crazy numbers this month, props to Bioshock for sure.

From a technical standpoint I really don't think the PS3 is really in that bad of a spot. It might be down but definitely not out. However, Sony definitely got humbled this gen. After all their big talk before the PS3's launch they made it sound like it was going to be a slaughter. Well it has been...just not in their favor. They really need to swallow their pride and keep their mouths shut now and get more games out there. It's getting old hearing the word "wait" when it comes to PS3 software.

 

[mepaco]

All of them combined.

So, in summary, your argument is:

Mario Party sales > Madden sales. This means that (if you exclude RE4, Red Steel, DQ:S, Trauma Center, Rayman, Tiger Woods and any other 3rd party game that sold well) 3rd party games can't sell on Wii!

 

[fernoca]

<throws .02 cents in>

I see 360 getting a nice boost from Halo 3, but I still don't see it beating Wii. Not just in September, but for the rest of the year. Wii, somehow, is still on "See it, buy it" alert in the US and I doubt that'll change all year. DS will also start rising back up as well. Especially when Zelda hits. Both Wii and DS will continue at 400k+ for the rest of the year, 360 will have a month or two at high 300k, then will slide back down. PS3 will look like it's on life support and we'll wonder when Sony will wake the fuck up.

Keep in mind that a million 360s were sold last December...
So it's only a matter of seeing if Nintendo can ship over a million units this holiday season.