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[Geezer]

The PS3 is so fucked it's not even funny.
If it wasn't for Ratchet/Uncharted/GT5 I'd probably trade it in for a 360 Elite.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

So, will PS3 be back to its normal sub 100k, next month? Will the 360 mange to beat the Wii for 1 month(unlikely)?

Nah. Even if PS3's weekly numbers took another big drop (which I doubt), next week is a 5 weeker anyway, so it would stay above 100K. Will X360 beat Wii? I suppose that depends on Nintendo's shipments. If their per-week amount in September is comparable to what it was for July and August, there's the potential for a 500K month.

How can the Wii be 'the next PS2' if the fanbase doesn't support every kind of game

Well, I suppose it depends what you consider "support". Did PS2 even support every kind of game Wii is?

He said Lifetime to Date (LTD) not August Tie Ratio.

That doesn't change the truth of what he said. Since the Wii had a larger percentage growth of userbase, each new owner would have to be a heavier buyer to prevent the tie ratio from dropping. I know I argued this point with you as far back as 2003, when GCN's big November caused its userbase to grow by 15% in one month.

To make an example of this using some totally incorrect numbers for simplicity, let's say that after July, PS3 (1.61 million) and Wii (3.62 million) both had a tie ratio of 10. That makes 16.1 million for PS3 and 36.2 million for Wii.

Now it's August, and each PS3 (1.74 million) and Wii (4.02 million) owner buys 1 game. That brings the total games sold to 17.84 million for PS3 and 40.22 million for Wii. If we calculate the new lifetime tie ratios, PS3's is now 10.3:1 and Wii's is still 10.0:1. Even with identical buying patterns, Wii's quicker hardware growth keeps the lifetime tie ratio down.


By a quick bit of spreadsheet doohickery, I calculate that the average US PS3 owner has had their system 6.1 months versus 5.3 months for the average Wii owner. I could try to get more accurate by taking into account which months are 4 weeks versus 5 weeks, but hey.

 

[Kintaro]

Keep in mind that a million 360s were sold last December...
So it's only a matter of seeing if Nintendo can ship over a million units this holiday season.

Ah. I'm pretty sure Nintendo will do what they can to ship out what they can. I don't honestly buy into the "shortage" talk. With Super Mario Galaxy AND Super Smash Bros. Brawl in November and December, Wii numbers will look astronomical. If they weren't confident they could have as many systems as needed, I don't think they would have placed two games of that caliber in back to back months.

 

[KeithFranklin]

They should probably try harder. They're passing up a cash cow.

Until software sales prove that it is just a theory. Take away WiiPlay (It is in reality an accessory sale) and the Wii games in the top 20 sold about 600K.

 

[ggd210]

I think next month xbox360 will be much better because halo3!!!

 

[FIREBABY]

I think next month xbox360 will be much better because halo3!!!

I call BS. No way will Halo3 sell 360's. /sarcasm

 

[Beer Monkey]

There is no 'new PS2', and there isn't going to be a new PS2. This generation is different.

 

[MobiusPigeon]

i believe MS purposely set up the price drop bomb with madden to HELP sell halo 3. 360 madden outselling ps2 madden almost proves that EA and MS got some old ps2 users to jump in which inturn helps MS this month with halo 3. its like they were greasing eachother palms purposely. With that said the 360 and Halo 3 should see a higher than expected jump with its newfound fans.

 

[Maxwell House]

Halo 2 didn't give much of a boost to the Xbox, and the 360's library is very strong, much better than the "only has one good game" library of the original.

But Xbox already had Halo when Halo 2 was out, so the core Halo players owned it already.

There has been no Halo on 360 yet, so no real reason for many of those owners to have bought a 360. This is the first next gen Halo 3, and because of that I believe it has much more system moving potential than Halo 2 did. I know all we have is anecodtal evidence, but I have read from many people on many forums how they are buying a 360 when Halo 3 releases.

 

[RiskyChris]

But Xbox already had Halo when Halo 2 was out, so the core Halo players owned it already.

There has been no Halo on 360 yet, so no real reason for many of those owners to have bought a 360. This is the first next gen Halo 3, and because of that I believe it has much more system moving potential than Halo 2 did. I know all we have is anecodtal evidence, but I have read from many people on many forums how they are buying a 360 when Halo 3 releases.

Yep, I always twitch a bit when people try to compare Halo 2's system-moving power.

Uh, hello, there's no prequel to Halo 3 on the 360 yet.

 

[Jokeropia]

Until software sales prove that it is just a theory.

Dragon Quest: Swords? Red Steel? Trauma Center? Rayman Raving Rabbits? Sonic and the Secret Rings? Tiger Woods? Dragon Ball Z: Budokai Tenkaichi 2? Resident Evil 4: Wii?

If I'm allowed to add first party sales too (since the issue seems to be software sales overall), the list obviously becomes longer.

 

[DuMaurier]

I am on the fence camp.

I expect 360 sales to be very healthy with Halo 3, but it is a 5 week month and I fully expect the Wii to do 400K+ again with it being a 5 week month. How many 360 supporters are predicting 400K+ in September? My expectation is Halo 3 will cause an increase the rest of the way and November and December will be when 360 outsells the Wii. Wii sales slipping 30K a week in Japan isnt enough to stockpile for the US. Not to mention it is in November that I expect the mainstream press to be declaring the 360 to be the console to get this holiday with the fabulouse line up of games.

There's no doubt the 360 will get a healthy bump from Halo but there's no way the 360 will outsell the Wii in November/December.....wait, I'm still new here, was yours a joke post that I didn't get or do you actually believe what you wrote?

 

[Frillen]

Until software sales prove that it is just a theory. Take away WiiPlay (It is in reality an accessory sale) and the Wii games in the top 20 sold about 600K.

The Wii has two third-party million sellers. The PS3? Zip.

 

[chespace]

Wii wins the the console war. End of story. I don't give a crap about who 'wins' the console . . . I think a 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 split would be cool.

But a discussion on third party software sales is very interesting to some people like me. It has a big implications on how third party publishers allocate their software development budgets. If you think it is irrelevent, then please stay out of those discussions. From my perspective have nothing to do about fanboy console wars but unfortunately fanboy defense forces arrive to pollute the discussion.

1/3 split would be cool, but historically speaking, it's basically a two horse race.

 

[Maxwell House]

Developers naturally have a desire to make their games look as good as possible, which is why the tendency is to put the big franchises on 360/PS3, not Wii, even though Wii is dominating in console sales.

And really, 3rd parties have been rewarded for making 360 versions of games. Why would they stop now?

 

[Phoenix Down]

The PS3 is so fucked it's not even funny.
If it wasn't for Ratchet/Uncharted/GT5 I'd probably trade it in for a 360 Elite.

Fuck'd how? its 500 console with no AAA games(yet).. I'd say its selling pretty good with those attributes

 

[Maxwell House]

I agree. If you combine all of the Sony products then combine all of the Nintendo products under the title Nintendo Family. some one needs to do that. If that happens it will show Nintendo winning big time.

That's "the joke." That is from SDF.

 

[MobiusPigeon]

The Wii has two third-party million sellers. The PS3? Zip.

it makes more sense to port a game to ps3 than wii tho. cant say that will be true much longer tho.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

There's no doubt the 360 will get a healthy bump from Halo but there's no way the 360 will outsell the Wii in November/December.....wait, I'm still new here, was yours a joke post that I didn't get or do you actually believe what you wrote?

He's serious. I too think November and December are X360's best opportunities to outsell Wii, since we're not really sure how supply will shake out.

Fuck'd how?

Like this:

its 500 console with no AAA games(yet)

 

[Ryu1999]

Fuck'd how? its 500 console with no AAA games(yet).. I'd say its selling pretty good with those attributes

You and Ynos Yrros should get a room

 

[Odysseus]

Developers naturally have a desire to make their games look as good as possible, which is why the tendency is to put the big franchises on 360/PS3, not Wii, even though Wii is dominating in console sales.

And really, 3rd parties have been rewarded for making 360 versions of games. Why would they stop now?

take that to the nth degree. why weren't all the heavy hitters on xbox instead of ps2?

developers will develop for the systems their publishers pay them to. if and when wii third party sales kick into overdrive, developer graphic whoredom, if it in fact exists, flies out the window.

 

[Pureauthor]

Fuck'd how? its 500 console with no AAA games(yet).. I'd say its selling pretty good with those attributes

'It's selling pretty good if you consider conditions X, Y, and Z' means 'it's not selling good at all'.

 

[FrankT]

He's serious. I too think November and December are X360's best opportunities to outsell Wii, since we're not really sure how supply will shake out.

I agree and I think December will be the best month outside of September this year for the 360 to outsell the Wii. I think it can, but I do not know at this point if it will. The 360 did absolutely massive numbers last December surpassing the Wii, The questions this year will be, Wii supply and what kind of deals and bundles will the 360 have on the table. I also think there maybe more to this whole theory of Nintendo diverting supply to the US due to the much lower Wii numbers in Japan lately. It could be a very big ramp up before the holiday season. At this point I put it at 50-50 chance that the 360 can do it in December.

 

[Nolan.]

The PS3 is so fucked it's not even funny.
If it wasn't for Ratchet/Uncharted/GT5 I'd probably trade it in for a 360 Elite.

It's weird though whatever happened to all the momentum it had going into the holidays. I mean a lot of people were looking forward to the games coming out in q4. I don't get how come suddenly it's so sombre (or is the sales whats depressing on gaf thats quietened a lot of people).

 

[Maxwell House]

The most sobering thing in these sales threads today for me was the PC numbers. Bioshock at 77k-even assuming Steam got 10-15% more (being generous there) sales that were not counted, that's not a very strong showing. You can't even blame piracy, either-the game wasn't cracked until September, by my understanding.

I know the PC is bigger in Europe, but man if a game like Bioshock can't get above 100k on the PC in the US when the Xbox360 version flirts five times that number , I don't see that as a particularly healthy number at all.

Piracy is absolutely killing the PC gaming market.

 

[mepaco]

It's weird though whatever happened to all the momentum it had going into the holidays. I mean a lot of people were looking forward to the games coming out in q4. I don't get how come suddenly it's so sombre (or is the sales whats depressing on gaf thats quietened a lot of people).

I think a lot of it has to do with the some of the over-hyped, supposedly AAA games that have turned out to be just good or worse. I think many are looking for a certain number of really great games to be available for the console before it will really jump in sales and so far it just doesn't have them. It also think it makes people more skeptical about some of the new IPs on the way. Thats just my guess though.

 

[Nolan.]

I just hope to goodness for Sony's sake and the ps3 that third party games like assassin's creed don't get delayed at least not just their version. If so they'll really be lost without a paddle for quite a long time. I hope their new ip's coming out around then can help but i'm not so confident they can do it on their own at this stage.

 

[Maxwell House]

halo 3 comes out too late in sept for 360 to outsell wii...October theres a chance, but wii will still win sept.


As for the ps3 boys still holding on(they must be on payroll), PS3 is, and always will be, the bottom feeder in NA this generation. ITS OVER!

sony is so frickin lucky the 360 never launched with hd dvd drive or that company would be in bankruptcy court.

Naw, 360 with HD-DVD would have been sold for at least $500, putting it in the same place as the PS3...up shit creek. Blu-Ray is one of the main reasons PS3 is failing (caused the 6 month - 1 year delay in PS3 release as well as added $100-$150 to the price).

 

[soul creator]

take that to the nth degree. why weren't all the heavy hitters on xbox instead of ps2?

developers will develop for the systems their publishers pay them to. if and when wii third party sales kick into overdrive, developer graphic whoredom, if it in fact exists, flies out the window.

well, the technology gap between Xbox/PS2 isn't quite the same as Wii/360, so it's not really a perfect comparison.

Doesn't automatically make your second statement wrong, but there are some differences from the PS2/Xbox days.

 

[Tzeentch]

Piracy is absolutely killing the PC gaming market.

It's certainly not helping either the PC or the PSP, but the ham-handed responses by the industry (StarForce and now SecuROM) are NOT helping matters at all - especially when there is a high quality console version available as well.

PC sales are also affected by the absolutely abysmal adoption of good video cards by the mass market brands. Sure you have cheap Walmart machines with 2GB RAM, 19" flatscreen monitors, 500GB hard drives ... but they have some sub-GeForce 6800 level integrated graphics chip ...

 

[Joust Williams]

Unless PS3/360/PC sales drop off of a cliff, the Wii isn't going to utterly "crush" anything. Factor that the 360 userbase alone isn't going anywhere and they snap up ridiculous amounts of games and this whole "WE ARE JUMPING TO WII" is stupid.

 

[Maxwell House]

You've got a good point there. I've never quite understood the whole point of Home. I think it may end up being a ghost town.

I think Sony is trying to make Home a new version of Myspace/Facebook. The thing is, I believe people who want social interaction will just stick with Myspace/Facebook. Home is a bit too cumbersome for real social interaction.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

Yep, Dragona's gonna be nice and happy

 

[Odysseus]

well, the technology gap between Xbox/PS2 isn't quite the same as Wii/360, so it's not really a perfect comparison.

Doesn't automatically make your second statement wrong, but there are some differences from the PS2/Xbox days.

the point is the mighty dollar drives more development than simple developer preferences. some might have the clout to do what they wish, but most will be looking for that next paycheck.

i should point out that sales of madden on wii do make me wonder about some of my wii assumptions so far, however.

 

[Maxwell House]

Yeah, it's almost as bad as people saying that the PS3 would sell when people got their tax refunds...

Holy fuck that still shocks me to this day.

:lol :lol I remember that. Some people were predicting a huge boost in PS3 sales in the April NPD because of tax refunds. :lol

If people were going to use their refund on a game system, why would it be on the PS3 over the 360 or Wii?

 

[Flakster99]

I just wanted to chime in saying that Mario Party 8 is a fucking blast to play.

Cheers!

I'll drink to that.

Cheers!

 

[J-Rzez]

lol

I bet Sony themselves hate SDF for being a PR Nightmare. :lol

Oh man, Aquanox from another known forum is here now? What a fine

Spoiler

fuckshop

batch of juniors this has become... Now I agree with the people here this wave of them is disappointing... Though, there has been a couple quality posters that joined here, the number of bad to good is more of lop-sided figure than Wii-to-PS3 sales...

 

[duk]

Fuck'd how? its 500 console with no AAA games(yet).. I'd say its selling pretty good with those attributes

I wonder if 3rd party devs think the same

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Unless PS3/360/PC sales drop off of a cliff, the Wii isn't going to utterly "crush" anything. Factor that the 360 userbase alone isn't going anywhere and they snap up ridiculous amounts of games and this whole "WE ARE JUMPING TO WII" is stupid.

Other than strawmen, has anyone been suggesting that increased Wii support means ignoring the X360?

 

[ari]

Fuck'd how? its 500 console with no AAA games(yet).. I'd say its selling pretty good with those attributes

i sold my ps3 for $300 dollars with 2 controllers,7 psn games,hd versions of shawshank redemption,lilja 4 ever,magnolia, the lookout, and the complete season one of dexter and heroes on the harddrive.

yea, thanks for making me feel better for selling my ps3 2 days ago, when sony actually have some games on that, i'll reconsider picking it up again, because i have backups and dvds of everything including the psn games from my psn account.

 

[Count Dookkake]

'It's selling pretty good if you consider conditions X, Y, and Z' means 'it's not selling good at all'.

Like telling a fat girl, "You have such a pretty face."

 

[jett]

but historically speaking, it's basically a two horse race for second place

fixed, amirite. But no seriously, last generation the cube and xbox sold pretty much about the same, inferring that was a "two horse race" is just uh...not quite right.

 

[Odysseus]

fixed, amirite. But no seriously, last generation the cube and xbox sold pretty much about the same, inferring that was a "two horse race" is just uh...not quite right.

last gen was a one horse and two pony race, and the ponies had broken legs.

 

[Brofist]

Every NPD and sales topic would have you believe the leap by 3rd parties from X360 and PS3 to Wii is right around the corner, meanwhile actual game announcements show the opposite. It must be frustrating for all the little Wii only owners. But I guess sales are a nice consolation for you guys

 

[Vagabundo]

Oh man, Aquanox from another known forum is here now? What a fine

Spoiler

fuckshop

batch of juniors this has become... Now I agree with the people here this wave of them is disappointing... Though, there has been a couple quality posters that joined here, the number of bad to good is more of lop-sided figure than Wii-to-PS3 sales...

We have been infiltrated by PS3Forums.

 

[Xisiqomelir]

last gen was a one horse and two pony race, and the ponies had broken legs.

So really, not much has changed. Except that one of the ponies is dead.

 

[Green Shinobi]

i sold my ps3 for $300 dollars with 2 controllers,7 psn games,hd versions of shawshank redemption,lilja 4 ever,magnolia, the lookout, and the complete season one of dexter and heroes on the harddrive.

yea, thanks for making me feel better for selling my ps3 2 days ago, when sony actually have some games on that, i'll reconsider picking it up again, because i have backups and dvds of everything including the psn games from my psn account.

You could have gotten way more for it by selling everything individually on ebay.

 

[FIREBABY]

i sold my ps3 for $300 dollars with 2 controllers,7 psn games,hd versions of shawshank redemption,lilja 4 ever,magnolia, the lookout, and the complete season one of dexter and heroes on the harddrive.

yea, thanks for making me feel better for selling my ps3 2 days ago, when sony actually have some games on that, i'll reconsider picking it up again, because i have backups and dvds of everything including the psn games from my psn account.

Sold mine for the same amount last week. Although I only had RFOM. Good game by the way. Sadly I didn't have any regret selling it though. All I could think of was the guy I was selling it to, "Damn, what a sucker.".

 

[Shepherd]

Fuck'd how? its 500 console with no AAA games(yet).. I'd say its selling pretty good with those attributes

I would say the trouble is the software sales. It will be near impossible for the PS3 (without moneyhats) to get exclusive games. We should see former PS3 exclusives go multi-platform and very few future games will be PS3 exclusive. With no exclusives people will just buy the cheaper HD console.

 

[BrokenSymmetry]

It's certainly not helping either the PC or the PSP, but the ham-handed responses by the industry (StarForce and now SecuROM) are NOT helping matters at all - especially when there is a high quality console version available as well.

That certainly holds for me. For that reason, I only buy MMO PC games, or games from Steam. But if the Bioshock example (which has SecuROM even for the Steam version) is followed by other publishers, even Steam will not be an option anymore, and only WoW and its kind will be "safe" for PC gamers...