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NPD Sales Results for October 2014 [Up3: All of Nintendo's 3DS million sellers]

Oh shit. So this means the gauntlet has been dropped and leaks are no longer allowed on GAF?

The issue is only with using e-mail tags for obfuscation purposes (since it disrupts the flow of discussion). Sorry if that link I posted wasn't clear with context. Leaks aren't banned or anything; creamsuger/Aqua/whoever else are still free to disseminate info if they like, as long as it's not done through the method of e-mail tags. Here's a better quote with more info:

I feel like there's some confusion here, so I'll quickly try and address. Users are free to come up with whatever scheme they want to post information. We're not here as enforcers of the NPD. If they have a problem with information posted, they will probably try and pursue the user leaking the info. In that regard, I would encourage users to exercise good discretion so as to not have to face real life consequences just so we can better play the part of armchair analysts. It's just not worth it. Stay safe. That's more important than us being able to have data. Alternatively, they can contact the site's staff and we can decide from there what to do. But it's not in my job description to protect the integrity of NPD's data.

Anyway, the email tag was specifically singled out because of the effect it has on the flow of discussion. I'm not saying that pie charts are awesome and totally safe in protecting the information and encouraging people to do it, but the fact of the matter is that people could publicly post about the pie charts, extrapolate that data, and post publicly about that extrapolation. And endless chain of email tag replies makes the conversation incredibly tedious. And given that it doesn't provide very much protection from being viewed by the wrong set of eyes, our position is that it's not worth it.

...
 

A_Gorilla

Banned
Cream has come and gone. It's like a Bigfoot sighting.

Found a picture of cream and Aqua:

Bigfoot_45fb1e_1677424.jpg
 

Ty4on

Member
Sigh, cream literally posted a few minutes after I fell asleep. So I got no sleep and no cream...

I guess I'll have to enjoy the cream in my coffee. At the very least we have most numbers.
 

foxbeldin

Member
I feel like there's some confusion here, so I'll quickly try and address. Users are free to come up with whatever scheme they want to post information. We're not here as enforcers of the NPD. If they have a problem with information posted, they will probably try and pursue the user leaking the info. In that regard, I would encourage users to exercise good discretion so as to not have to face real life consequences just so we can better play the part of armchair analysts. It's just not worth it. Stay safe. That's more important than us being able to have data. Alternatively, they can contact the site's staff and we can decide from there what to do. But it's not in my job description to protect the integrity of NPD's data.

Anyway, the email tag was specifically singled out because of the effect it has on the flow of discussion. I'm not saying that pie charts are awesome and totally safe in protecting the information and encouraging people to do it, but the fact of the matter is that people could publicly post about the pie charts, extrapolate that data, and post publicly about that extrapolation. And endless chain of email tag replies makes the conversation incredibly tedious. And given that it doesn't provide very much protection from being viewed by the wrong set of eyes, our position is that it's not worth it.

Mind you, I'm not saying that I have a better idea. And I honestly don't revel in being the bad guy here. I want data too, and I'm not doing this because my best buddy that works for the NPD group told me to.

Maybe we could have a "registered" tag with the data in it being censored for lurkers but automatically and fully viewable by gaffers with an account. Not the perfect solution as it wouldn't prevent the leaks, but still the best we can get imo.

Would require a bit of work on the forum code though.
 

Ty4on

Member
Maybe we could have a "registered" tag with the data in it being censored for lurkers but automatically and fully viewable by gaffers with an account. Not the perfect solution as it wouldn't prevent the leaks, but still the best we can get imo.

Would require a bit of work on the forum code though.

GAF is a forum with 144,299 registered users. Granted, a lot of those accounts are either banned or inactive, but there's still thousands of active users on the site. This isn't a secret elite club where we've thoroughly vetted every active member as someone that is totes cool and on the level. This isn't the GAF of several years ago where you might wait in the registration queue for over a year. Anyone who is locked out and wants an account just to click quote and see what's in the email tags can register an account and be active by the next round of NPDs.
.
 

Game Guru

Member
I don't know how they do it in the US, but in Europe a lot of small digital games do have a store presence, as digital download cards with a picture of the game cover on the front. Makes it easy to buy them as presents, and more visible than most mobile phone games.

The US has less of a presence for digital download cards for specific games... However, you will generally find gift cards for PSN and Xbox Live (as well as gift cards for Steam, iTunes, Google Play, and Amazon) pretty much anywhere with gift cards including gas stations and grocery stores... Gift cards for specific digital games are only found at stores like GameStop and Best Buy that focus on games or tech.
 

Mikey Jr.

Member
OK, I'm going to be the bad guy here. The email thing? This is a bad idea. I don't want this to be encouraged. At best, it's a minimally effective tool to try and obfuscate that data that shouldn't be shared publicly is being shared slightly less openly. At worst, it completely destroys the flow of conversation and opens up the door for this to become more prolific on the rest of the forum. There was a user that was punished somewhat harshly (and comically) for hiding text in email tags. It is not a practice we want to encourage.

Now, I understand. I probably look like an awful person that is raining on the parade when everyone wants the same thing and ideas are being kicked around to facilitate that while also not being too ostentatious. Honestly, kudos to that. We all enjoy sales discussion. But this particular idea? This is not the answer.

I'm not issuing an immediate scorched earth warning here, but I will say that failure to comply is going to result in bans pretty quickly. So, don't post responses in email tags.

I honestly think npd threads should be moved to a member only forum. Guest accounts can see the op, but that's it.
 
The PS4 has definitely risen in comaprison to last week on Amazon but so did XB1 for almost every SKU outside of the kinectless AC Unity bundle (and that wasn't even that big of a drop in terms of position) -- That's three other Xbox One SKUs (since the Sunset Overdrive bundle is sold out).

Those games you mentioned released at a good time too since the impact of their launches will continue on next week and right into Black Friday.

A rising tide lifts all the ships....

Hey, the Cod bundle is back in stock by Amazon for $449!!
Expect it to rise a bit through the ranks...

It had gone back up yesterday to the mid 50's despite being sold for $511 by 3rd party sellers.

Also, so other trends to keep track of is the PS4 seems to be slowing back down again, the X1 Unity bundle is staying in it's usual position, and SSB is killing it!

I'm starting to think SSB will outsell MCC now.
Definitely a possibility...

Black Friday will be huge!!
 
Microsoft beat Sony is a lost cause. Could happen in some months, but overall the trend is PS4 expand the lead.

Xbox One just need to sell well to be a decent second place.

Don't forget what happened with the PS3. Xbox beating Sony in the US is not a lot cause yet. All we know is that it won't be happening anytime soon other than maybe a month or two.

In the long run though, they still can make a turn around, but they will need to be making all the right moves.

WW is obviously a lost cause thanks to Europe and Japan, though if they actually started giving a crap they could at least increase the X1's performance there....

The problem is that they need to build up a a good relationship with their customers there based on trust, and actions of goodwill, but some of the US only things they have been doing lately shows that this will probably never happen.
 

Lemondish

Member
The issue is only with using e-mail tags for obfuscation purposes (since it disrupts the flow of discussion). Sorry if that link I posted wasn't clear with context. Leaks aren't banned or anything; creamsuger/Aqua/whoever else are still free to disseminate info if they like, as long as it's not done through the method of e-mail tags. Here's a better quote with more info:

That more info doesn't really help address how we'll go about doing this in the future. It specifically says that users that post can do so in whatever scheme they want, but given the latest command from Mount Olympus, the implication is that the mods will be able to veto any scheme they want for whatever reason they want. I'm sensing a hostile vibe towards leakers here. Am I missing something? I mean, we had a whole month to come up with a new idea or throw out the old one and yet once the leaks begin again we're now getting swift retaliation from the mods. What's the progress on other proposed solutions that were suggested as an alternative in last month's thread?

Blue is SSB, Grey is SO, and the other two are Bayo and DC?

Am I doing this right?

Well, the energy drink in SSO is orange, so....
 

Ty4on

Member
Well, the energy drink in SSO is orange, so....

SO did also outperform Bayo 2 and Driveclub...
Nintendo said this about SSB:
"The game sold more than 485,000 total units in October"
They included downloads and I guess probably bundles as well, but I don't think they make the NPD number low enough.

I'm clueless though...
 

Lemondish

Member
Don't forget what happened with the PS3. Xbox beating Sony in the US is not a lot cause yet. All we know is that it won't be happening anytime soon other than maybe a month or two.

In the long run though, they still can make a turn around, but they will need to be making all the right moves.

WW is obviously a lost cause thanks to Europe and Japan, though if they actually started giving a crap they could at least increase the X1's performance there....

The problem is that they need to build up a a good relationship with their customers there based on trust, and actions of goodwill, but some of the US only things they have been doing lately shows that this will probably never happen.

I don't think the PS3 is a smart thing to bring up as a comparison. The Xbox One doesn't seem like it has many of the same things going for it. The PS3 never did catch up to the 360's massive lead in the US and instead had to rely on strong sales in Japan and Europe to compete worldwide, regions where the Xbox One is essentially DOA. Today, there's some hope that they'll manage to win a month or two in the US through aggressive pricing and bundling, but this won't close the gap in the US - just like how winning a month or two in the PS3 era didn't close that gap for Sony.

I think it's as close to a lost cause as we can say without prophetic abilities.
 
That more info doesn't really help address how we'll go about doing this in the future. It specifically says that users that post can do so in whatever scheme they want, but given the latest command from Mount Olympus, the implication is that the mods will be able to veto any scheme they want for whatever reason they want. I'm sensing a hostile vibe towards leakers here. Am I missing something?

you're missing EVERYTHING.

GAF has no problem with leaks
up until legal action is threatened and then topics get closed pretty fucking quickly
but putting information in an email tag that can only be viewed by quoting a poster, and then any subsequent discussion regarding that information necessarily also having to be hidden until quotes makes a thread almost unreadable, and is stifling to discussion.
 
Numbers are available for PS4 and One but published on a ban site here.

If numbers are correct it's:

PS4: 297k
One: 168k

Grimløck;139659601 said:
wow if true. thought it'd be closer.


Read the flow of conversation (especially the last few pages) from that site and here for your answer ;)

I said it before, but I'm guessing this is why MS went all in with their awesomely aggressive bundles and pricing this Holiday.

And Abdiel's posts about the PS4 already outselling X1's pace again to eat into the X1 BF sales surge has me thinking the X1 price cut is going to be permanent and the deals will only get better in the coming months, as I don't see what MS has planned to counter Bloodborne or if they even feel they need to.
 

QaaQer

Member
Thought this might be fun. Let me know if this is not preferred and I'll delete it.

sIqsUdS.png


Exclusive software pie.

So, blue is 41%, orange is 17%, grey 25%, and yellow 17% & the games are bayo2, driveclub, sunset, & super smash? I'm guessing smash>sunset>B2=DC.
 
On the meta-discussion. I believe that NPD threads are eventually moved into a member's only section of the site archiving them essentially, but they [usually] remain unlocked. If our friendly neighborhood gaffers wish to share out of the prying eye, that's an option. As someone who is interested in the data, but not necessarily in the immediacy of it, that would seem a suitable compromise really. Market research from a commercial perspective presumably tends to become less useful [and therefore less valuable] the less timely it is.

Also, I think it's been noted before but the constant use of the L word isn't really conducive to a sharing-friendly environment.
So, blue is 41%, orange is 17%, grey 25%, and yellow 17% & the games are bayo2, driveclub, sunset, & super smash?
There's basically no way to reconcile SSB being only about twice the sales of any of the other three, so something is off.
 
Has Activision ever had such high expectations for a title before?

So, even if Destiny misses the internal expectations at Activision (which is difficult to lock down to begin with as multiple planning scenarios are carried per title) the short-term hit is likely going to pale in comparison to when Guitar Hero collapsed. (I could be wrong)

All the plastic, all the licensing deals, all that expensive real estate at retail... Remember they actually put a billion dollar goal on that franchise at one point.

So, I don't know what the real expectations for destiny were, but Activision is the absolute best in the business at managing risk and boldly attacking upsides and new markets. Pretty sure they were ready for whatever happened with Destiny.
 
So, even if Destiny misses the internal expectations at Activision (which is difficult to lock down to begin with as multiple planning scenarios are carried per title) the short-term hit is likely going to pale in comparison to when Guitar Hero collapsed.

All the plastic, all the licensing deals, all that expensive real estate at retail... Remember they actually put a billion dollar goal on that franchise at one point.

I honestly think it was a huge mistake for Activision to chase the peripherals market so heavily (to the extent it spilled over to another of their evergreen titles Tony Hawks and took that down with it when the whole thing collapsed) rather than, say, transitioning GH into a service brand instead.
 
Over the years, Activision has definitely shown a remarkable ability to adapt, survive and thrive. And part of that probably derives from being able to generate new brands to replace the old. For those that follow the Japanese sales threads, Level-5 has sometimes been compared with them (not necessarily in a positive way mind you) in terms of launching new brands, extracting as much as they can from them, and using that success to launch further new brands (on a much more rapid cycle though).

I think where concern, not sure if that's the right word, comes into play with Destiny, is the degree to which it can be their next big thing on the assumption that Call of Duty cannot be sustained indefinitely, and if it isn't, what's going to be. I think it's still going to be Destiny, and I think they can make it work. (Does the company normally play its cards close to its figurative chest in terms of what's in the pipeline?)

It's probably also worth noting that Activision has the benefit of their Blizzard arm as something of a "buffer."

Draenor expansion and subscriptions back up to 10M would seem to indicate that with careful management that brand still has a ton of life left in it, especially with a film coming out in 2016.
 

mrklaw

MrArseFace
That more info doesn't really help address how we'll go about doing this in the future. It specifically says that users that post can do so in whatever scheme they want, but given the latest command from Mount Olympus, the implication is that the mods will be able to veto any scheme they want for whatever reason they want. I'm sensing a hostile vibe towards leakers here. Am I missing something? I mean, we had a whole month to come up with a new idea or throw out the old one and yet once the leaks begin again we're now getting swift retaliation from the mods. What's the progress on other proposed solutions that were suggested as an alternative in last month's thread?



Well, the energy drink in SSO is orange, so....

You're missing something. Steve's post after that was very clear and fair IMO. It isn't cracking down on anything, and it is entirely up to individuals if they want to post explicit or obfuscated data. His point was that hiding such data in email tags wouldn't work. You can't have a meaningful discussion about such data without it being quoted or referenced, and arguably it stifles discussion to try.
 

PhatSaqs

Banned
Nearly 2-1. Now it's clear why they started the $350 bundle exactly at the beginning of NPD November.
I think its been clear why they've been dropping the price & doing bundles since the first cut. They never should have launched at that price in the first place.
 

hepburn3d

Member
what's up guys, long time no see

my twitter handle is legit

it's funny that so many people were skeptical about it initially, haha

Welcome back Aqua. I genuinely thought someone was impersonating you so they could drop a fake bomb on us. Glad I was wrong.

I think the best day to avoid attention is to post the previous months numbers the day of the NPD when no one cares about the month prior and is too busy deciphering press releases/console waring.

I personally just enjoy the speculation and drip feeds of information. Those that have numbers get it at such a privilege that I enjoy their interpretations of the data with or without the context of the numbers.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Over the years, Activision has definitely shown a remarkable ability to adapt, survive and thrive. And part of that probably derives from being able to generate new brands to replace the old. For those that follow the Japanese sales threads, Level-5 has sometimes been compared with them (not necessarily in a positive way mind you) in terms of launching new brands, extracting as much as they can from them, and using that success to launch further new brands (on a much more rapid cycle though).

I think where concern, not sure if that's the right word, comes into play with Destiny, is the degree to which it can be their next big thing on the assumption that Call of Duty cannot be sustained indefinitely, and if it isn't, what's going to be. I think it's still going to be Destiny, and I think they can make it work. (Does the company normally play its cards close to its figurative chest in terms of what's in the pipeline?)

It's probably also worth noting that Activision has the benefit of their Blizzard arm as something of a "buffer."

Draenor expansion and subscriptions back up to 10M would seem to indicate that with careful management that brand still has a ton of life left in it, especially with a film coming out in 2016.
Blizzard itself has had a surprisingly strong renaissance lately. Not only did they gain 2.5 million subscribers to World of Warcraft with an eye on new annual expansion packs, they sold over 20 million copies of Diablo 3, and are now managing several frequently updated free 2 play games, the first one which to release is major success.

Their output in general is up tremendously compared to where it was even only a few years ago.

The one note of concern for them though is that I agree, if CoD can't stabilize long term and Destiny can't experience major growth, what is their next plan to keep growing? Does it all fall on Blizzard? Every studio working under the Activision label right now is working on CoD, Destiny, Skylanders, or extremely low effort licensed games. There's no obvious group out there trying to cook up Activision's next big hit.
 

jryi

Senior Analyst, Fanboy Drivel Research Partners LLC
pardon my ignorance but if our sources are gone then where did these numbers come from? Or is this just what has been publicly revealed by NPD themselves?

NPD doesn't reveal hardware numbers. There are still some knowledgeable people around here, but they prefer to not have too much attention drawn to them, which we should all respect.
 
Every studio working under the Activision label right now is working on CoD, Destiny, Skylanders, or extremely low effort licensed games. There's no obvious group out there trying to cook up Activision's next big hit.

FreeStyleGames is rumored to be working on a new Guitar Hero.
 
I honestly think it was a huge mistake for Activision to chase the peripherals market so heavily (to the extent it spilled over to another of their evergreen titles Tony Hawks and took that down with it when the whole thing collapsed) rather than, say, transitioning GH into a service brand instead.

Perhaps.

There was a time, however, when Guitar Hero and Rock Band were giving the PS2 2 more years of life, giving a huge boost to the Wii, and pushing average pricing ridiculously higher during a time of global economic uncertainty.

Plastic really was thought to be the wave of the future, and in getting the huge mass audience (which were also buying ungodly amounts of plastic crap for their Wiis. I mean, Wii Fit for crying out loud).

It's why Kotick went out and said that "games are recession proof".

The Tony franchise was dying with a lot of years left on that deal, so at the time it sure seemed like an interesting bet. Just putting out another Tony Hawk game wasn't going to cut it.

Dunno, something to be said about gettin' while the gettin's good.

The industry has been carried by fad genres for years. DDR, Wii Fit, mascot platformers, Band Games, Shooters (the #7 genre in 2005 btw... didn't get huge until this last gen)... it's just weird because right now there's no huge new thing. Right now, it's Open World Action that seems to be the genre du jour, but it ain't driving sales like some of those other buckets.

If we had a big genre pushing excitement, perhaps we wouldn't see so much pessimism about the console market. Problem is, no one ever knows what that will be until it happens. But with fewer risks, the chances of this happening are slimmer, etc etc. Ugh.

Rambling, but I have a killer outline for a history of Guitar Hero book... there are some amazing stories.
 
I don't think the PS3 is a smart thing to bring up as a comparison. The Xbox One doesn't seem like it has many of the same things going for it. The PS3 never did catch up to the 360's massive lead in the US and instead had to rely on strong sales in Japan and Europe to compete worldwide, regions where the Xbox One is essentially DOA. Today, there's some hope that they'll manage to win a month or two in the US through aggressive pricing and bundling, but this won't close the gap in the US - just like how winning a month or two in the PS3 era didn't close that gap for Sony.

I think it's as close to a lost cause as we can say without prophetic abilities.

Xbox does have a lot of things going for it in US that PS3 did not have (in US).
I'll list a few reasons on why it could eventually come back in US...

-Price
(x1 is now selling at a cheaper price, and MS will likely try to keep it lower than the PS4 for most of the generation since they can't compete with price pairity. I am fairly sure that the PS3 was always more expensive than the 360, and that was a big deal as to why it never did too hot in the US.)

-Shooters
(Xbox brand has always been associated with shooters, which us Americans love. Weather it is timed Cod content, Halo, Gears, or Crackdown, Xbox will always have great shooters, and over time I think that will start to make a difference in the US. Playstation has tried to make great shooters like Killzone, but in reality they just can't compete. I think Destiny is the best thing they have going for them in that space right now.)

-360 owners
(there are still a lot of 360 owners in the US that have not upgraded. I have quite a few friends like this, a lot of who are waiting for Halo 5 to make the jump. I think that as prices continue to go down, we will start to see a lot of them make the jump starting next year, and all the way into 2016 when the console's sales peak is expected.)
(most consoles hit peak sales after about 2-3 years on the market.)
 
Anyways, based on that MCV thread this morning, the Nov NPD thread is going to be soul crushing and will very likely eliminate what remaining faith I have in humanity.

Even if the Xbox One wins Novermber (which I still find unlikely, but let's say it does), not sure how that means anything for December, January, etc... the sales gap has increased every month since January, even with aggressive pricing and offers from MS. More power to them, would love to see a highly competitive market (hell, I even have a Windows Phone, Surface and bought 3 Zunes, so I'm very much a MS customer) but in the big picture, winning November wouldn't be as big as everyone seems to be expecting it to be.
 

Cole Slaw

Banned
Guys, despite whoever ends up winning November, can we just take a minute to stop and marvel at how one AAA production from Naughty Dog is being paired with another AAA production from Rockstar, which are then in turn being paired with AAA hardware that has set a new standard in ease of development for indie developers and major studios alike?

Let us bow our heads in silent appreciation.
 
Right now, it's Open World Action that seems to be the genre du jour, but it ain't driving sales like some of those other buckets.

I'm honestly surprised we haven't seen a big budget take on MineCraft yet.
It has an easily clonable 'hook', it has super lo-fi production values and aesthetic, and its defined itself as a compelling experience with sales that seemingly won't stop - all of these are usually indicators for a AAA rework.

We have FortNite announced by Epic, but have seen almost nothing of it since its initial announcement, and we have some smaller independent projects like Day Z or Rust with their maturation takes on the key things that made MineCraft compelling, but nothing in that space from the big publishers.
 
Anyways, based on that MCV thread this morning, the Nov NPD thread is going to be soul crushing and will very likely eliminate what remaining faith I have in humanity.

Even if the Xbox One wins Novermber (which I still find unlikely, but let's say it does), not sure how that means anything for December, January, etc... the sales gap has increased every month since January, even with aggressive pricing and offers from MS. More power to them, would love to see a highly competitive market (hell, I even have a Windows Phone, Surface and bought 3 Zunes, so I'm very much a MS customer) but in the big picture, winning November wouldn't be as big as everyone seems to be expecting it to be.

Honestly, most people just use sales numbers to fuel their fanboy wars and justify their purchase. I'm almost glad we had a hiatus of numbers because that means these people will leave the November NPD thread that much quicker instead of lingering around hoping for hard numbers.
 
$299 price point would make sense in 2016 if they keep to their recent trend of releasing many exclusives one year, and then releasing significantly fewer quality titles the following year.

This trend you speak of, shouldn't even be taken into consideration. It's the first year of the console and they usually release less tittles on that year. After that they pick up steam and never let up until the year their next console is released, hence a weak first year for the next console.

That's a trend with more time to back it up.
 
I'm honestly surprised we haven't seen a big budget take on MineCraft yet.
It has an easily clonable 'hook', it has super lo-fi production values and aesthetic, and its defined itself as a compelling experience with sales that seemingly won't stop - all of these are usually indicators for a AAA rework.

We have FortNite announced by Epic, but have seen almost nothing of it since its initial announcement, and we have some smaller independent projects like Day Z or Rust with their maturation takes on the key things that made MineCraft compelling, but nothing in that space from the big publishers.
Have you seen Tomorrow Children?
 
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