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September 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes October 13th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Of course NBA is well over a million. Not too hard to see it taking first, but Madden Odell Beckham Jr'd that 2nd spot. In its second month.
I never... ever... wow it actually says when you edit stuff? Damn, the stealth edit days are dead...
So, Xbone is not over 284k and PS4 not over....what, 550k? So, Madden sold better on PS4, Destiny better on Xbone. What a trade. Anyway, where is Forza 6?
DeadOnions
Member
A rough month then but in all fairness Destiny was massive last year and boosted both consoles. This year metal gear wasn't a big draw despite being a great game.
Forza not charting is a shame but hopefully like Horizon it'll be a long seller. The series could do with a break though.
Next month should be much better though and with large yoy growth for x1 and ps4.
Forza not charting is a shame but hopefully like Horizon it'll be a long seller. The series could do with a break though.
Next month should be much better though and with large yoy growth for x1 and ps4.
Maybe, its a racing sim on a single console. Versus multiplats and Mario Maker which probably every WiiU owner bought.
Crimson_Gold
Member
Digital purchases. Why go buy another disk and get a download code when you already have it sitting on your HDD or already own the base game
Damn, so Microsoft's PR really was that misleading that most of us thought the XB1 was up YoY. PS4 being the winner and down YoY is no surprise, though. It's almost impossible to top last September's numbers. Now we wait for the numbers.
It didn't though. That YoY growth quote is for Jan - Sep. That is some seriously next level spin bullshit from MS.
Sim racing genre's popularity is going down in the U.S..
Stealth edits have to be done within minutes of your original post. You can go back weeks or days and stealth edit things lol.
There's no need for racing games to be annual franchises. It's a cynical-as-fuck method of franchise building. I know F6 is different than Horizons, but to your mainstream audience, they're all Forza games.
I don't understand this complaint since it wouldn't exist if Forza Horizon was called "Racing Horizon" (or just some other name).
As long as the games continue on being good then I couldn't care less.
Or maybe Forza should take a little longer break.
This statement is true, but what is Driveclub's excuse?
Btw: I'm saying this in reference to your response regarding US interest in racing sims
Well, mixed reviews and online was broken. Forza 6 isn't the case.
There was no way ps4 would have reached last September's numbers.
That played a part, no doubt, but cmon you are really going to act like the main reason Forza 6 didn't do well is because of being an annual release vs. the US market just not into racing sims?
Just take a look at the rest of the top 10 and I think it's pretty obvious........m
And Driveclub sold like shit in the US for the exact same reason
New unknown IP, delayed by a year, with the promise of a free version on Plus, getting mixed reviews and online debacle.
That game was handled like a train wreck before and at launch...yet they fixed it and LTD sales are good enough.
Btw it's undeniable that sales in the racing genre are down, but I also think that annualizing games is not a good thing for long term sales. People get bored quickly, improvements are limited and it's hard to create hype for something that's a constant.
Well, do we know Forza 6 numbers compared to DC numbers? How DC sold....200k or less in October?
What are LTD sales in the US? Since that is what we are discussing - US interest in racing sims.
All I've seen are WW numbers.
I have Driveclub.....and Forza 6.......they are both good games, but it doesn't take away from the fact the US doesn't care about racing sims in general.
I can't wait to see what GT7 does in the US as it will be the biggest racing game this gen. That will be the true gauge
AgentP
Thinks mods influence posters politics. Promoted to QAnon Editor.
DC is a sim now?
the discussion is US interest in racing sims, not comparing DC vs. F6.
My point which I'll state again, is that you are saying Forza sold like crap due to being an annual release. I'm saying that since 5 of the top10 games were annual releases it probably has more to do with the US lack of interest
Graphics Horse
Member
There's been a Forza every year since.. uh, the one before horizon 1 I think? 4?
I think results would more than likely be similar for a same gen Forza sequel no matter when it's released. The genre simply doesn't get much hype in America when the series the sim racer is a part of isn't making its current gen debut.
I said in that Project Cars thread a while back that Forza 6 more than likely wouldn't do great for similar reasons as to why the XB1 version of Project Cars sold much less than the PS4 version. The American userbase is heavy with Xbox One and many here simply don't find sim racers to be attention worthy if there are already multiple sim racers available on their console.
Gran Turismo 7 will more than likely chart but I can't see any other sim racing game making the top 10 list for NPD until next gen after that.
Or maybe Xbox community in US doesn't care about racers even if they recieved good critics ( Forza 6 in that case ).
I would say the US gaming community period (whether Xbox or PlayStation).
The only racer this gen I could see making NPD is GT7 but I would say that even that game would have to release in a month outside of Fall for it to happen.
Don't forget new NFS. And also a split in sales between Xbone and PS4.
The only numbers fitting all the known criteria are:
Wii U 75k
PS4 300k
XB1 248k
Which would put me already 124k off :-/
Wii U 75k
PS4 300k
XB1 248k
Which would put me already 124k off :-/
So now we are going to this since the "annual release" theory doesn't hold up?
Did Driveclub chart? Nope
Did Project Cars chart? Nope and it had better reviews IIRC. Heck and the month it released, the only major new release was Witcher. Nowhere near the competition Forza had in Sept.
Yet, we think it's just the Xbox community in the US that doesn't care?
Unfortunately the US doesn't care that much about racers. NFS may do better though, but I wouldn't hold my breath. EDIT: on more thought due to its style and being more arcadey I won't be too surprised if it charts. It has stiff competition in Nov though
And I do think GT7 will do fine but that's because by the time the it comes out it will have a great install base. Still will sell much better in Europe.
corrected
That sales split will obviously be towards PS4 with 1) bigger install base, 2) bigger install base, 3) Forza 6 just came out and already eaten into the small market 4) some XB1 owners will wait for NFS to hit the EA Vault and 5) bigger install base. It will be a MGSV type split I imagine
Didn´t the info say that XB1+PS4=550k?
Zhuge said can be bigger, and we talk about rounded numbers.
But 620k is way more - he´d said "over 600k", no?
Is a long story... that said, those are rounded numbers from millions and millions, so, even a little change in % can made a huge difference.
Anyway, Nintendo said Wii U sales are more than doubled. If he said the sales are doubled, i mean, the sales are doubled, Nintendo know what the sales are. Wii U can't be 75k.
You do realize that MGSV split is 69% to 23%? That is way more than an install base difference. And lol at EA access having any significant sway on sales.
Yes I do realize that. It's obvious why it's so, install base and brand association. Your point?
Between install base and the other two factors I think it will cut into NFS sales on XB1
GT5 sold about 2.8 million in the US.
Although Sim Racers declined rapidly since GT5 in the US, it's still relatively huge, the GT Academy winner from last year was from the US.
Yes, and that was the first GT on the system so it had a lot of hype.
I honestly don't feel it's huge anymore. The PS2 gen was the peak for the sim racing genre in U.S. in my opinion.
_____________________
I don't think the split for NFS will be that big. Maybe 60/40 at most. The people that grew up with the NFS Underground games are on both systems.
You are probably right - we'll see.
It was never that big in the US even, GT3 was heavily bundled in the US, it doesn't represent the real size of the sims racers market in the US at the time.
But yeah, I don't expect anywhere close to 2.8 million in the US for GT7, but ~1.5 million is still very possible, not in the first month but eventually. GT games were never frontloaded anyway.
Okay, using the below for prediction results.
PS4 - 340K
XB1 - 280K
3DS - 123K (split of 120K and 125K with guidance)
WIU - 85K
NeoGAF Prediction Results - September 2015
Units
1. Tratorn - 30,000
2. Spazgadget - 31,000
3. NateDrake - 33,000
4. shinra-bansho - 42,000
5. DrWong - 44,000
5. astrogamer - 44,000
5. skedar897 - 44,000
8. jayu26 - 46,000
9. Tubie - 53,000
9. aaronwt - 53,000
11. Kayant - 58,000
12. doicare - 59,000
13. Bruno MB - 60,000
13. noobie - 60,000
15. 1st Course - 62,000
15. allan-bh - 62,000
15. donny2112 - 62,000
18. specialK - 63,000
19. Ombala - 65,000
20. Final Verdict - 66,000
21. CorporateClown - 67,000
22. Hammer24 - 68,000
22. Rand6 - 68,000
22. SupperCrunch - 68,000
22. der_feine_herr - 68,000
26. archnemesis - 72,000
27. Bgamer90 - 73,000
27. Canis lupus - 73,000
27. Kill3r7 - 73,000
27. Sterok - 73,000
31. GAF_Agg - 76,700
32. KillerMan91 - 77,000
33. GamerJM - 79,000
34. madp0k - 82,000
34. theprodigy - 82,000
36. Chobel - 83,000
36. ConfusedGamer - 83,000
36. Elios83 - 83,000
36. Giriath_89 - 83,000
36. OleGunner - 83,000
36. Straight Edge - 83,000
36. ZachzOOming - 83,000
43. robo - 86,000
44. Loudninja - 88,000
44. Polip Fawn - 88,000
44. Rymuth - 88,000
44. prag16 - 88,000
48. The 8-Bit Raider - 89,000
48. foxbeldin - 89,000
50. Asd202 - 90,000
50. Darth Smurf X - 90,000
52. Mister Megative - 91,000
52. Road - 91,000
54. Crimson_Gold - 92,000
54. watdaeff4 - 92,000
56. jjonez18 - 93,000
57. RexNovis - 99,000
58. Man-is-Obsolete - 101,000
59. Welfare - 104,000
60. panda-zebra - 106,000
61. BlackBuzzard - 107,000
61. Ryng_Tolu - 107,000
63. jroc74 - 108,000
63. super6646 - 108,000
65. Triggerhappytel - 113,000
65. andy_lhc - 113,000
67. TheCarrotKiller - 114,000
68. pitseleh - 115,000
69. Elandyll - 118,000
69. Pillville - 118,000
71. Fat4all - 119,000
71. orfax - 119,000
73. Raider1874 - 120,000
73. wachie - 120,000
75. HanzSnubSnub - 123,000
76. Sangetsu-II - 125,000
77. im_dany - 128,000
78. ascii42 - 133,000
78. bud23 - 133,000
80. Prototype Viktor - 137,000
81. Trust me, I'm a PhD - 139,000
82. Jigorath - 141,000
83. Serenity - 143,000
84. GameWhisperer - 146,000
85. IAmRandom31 - 147,000
86. Sloane_Ranger - 148,000
87. Toro - 152,000
88. GifGafIsTheBestGaf - 153,000
88. gtj1092 - 153,000
90. 5Twist - 156,000
90. anexanhume - 156,000
92. Javin98 - 158,000
92. Megadragon15 - 158,000
92. Possumowner - 158,000
95. freefornow - 161,000
96. slavesnyder - 168,000
97. Tivor Tontomo - 173,000
97. michaelius - 173,000
99. Zero-Crescent - 176,000
100. ghost4soul - 180,000
101. DriftingSpirit - 183,000
101. ethomaz - 183,000
103. Jamix012 - 187,000
104. Venom Fox - 189,000
105. harrisk954 - 191,000
106. roninwarrior92 - 193,000
107. samar11 - 198,000
108. d0hv - 202,000
109. Conduit - 203,000
110. mejin - 213,000
111. perfectchaos007 - 216,000
112. Pachter - 223,000
113. twinturbo2 - 227,000
114. Stanng243 - 233,000
115. MasterSheen - 245,000
116. Blobbers - 247,000
116. Michael Armbrust - 247,000
118. DieH@rd - 274,000
119. renjworks - 275,000
120. daniel77733 - 278,000
121. Apt101 - 290,000
122. Bioshocker - 293,000
122. tearsintherain - 293,000
124. Aeqvitas - 308,000
125. orochi91 - 338,000
Points
Congratulations, Tratorn!
Top 3 photo finish in Units this month! :O
PS4 - 340K
XB1 - 280K
3DS - 123K (split of 120K and 125K with guidance)
WIU - 85K
NeoGAF Prediction Results - September 2015
Units
1. Tratorn - 30,000
2. Spazgadget - 31,000
3. NateDrake - 33,000
4. shinra-bansho - 42,000
5. DrWong - 44,000
5. astrogamer - 44,000
5. skedar897 - 44,000
8. jayu26 - 46,000
9. Tubie - 53,000
9. aaronwt - 53,000
11. Kayant - 58,000
12. doicare - 59,000
13. Bruno MB - 60,000
13. noobie - 60,000
15. 1st Course - 62,000
15. allan-bh - 62,000
15. donny2112 - 62,000
18. specialK - 63,000
19. Ombala - 65,000
20. Final Verdict - 66,000
21. CorporateClown - 67,000
22. Hammer24 - 68,000
22. Rand6 - 68,000
22. SupperCrunch - 68,000
22. der_feine_herr - 68,000
26. archnemesis - 72,000
27. Bgamer90 - 73,000
27. Canis lupus - 73,000
27. Kill3r7 - 73,000
27. Sterok - 73,000
31. GAF_Agg - 76,700
32. KillerMan91 - 77,000
33. GamerJM - 79,000
34. madp0k - 82,000
34. theprodigy - 82,000
36. Chobel - 83,000
36. ConfusedGamer - 83,000
36. Elios83 - 83,000
36. Giriath_89 - 83,000
36. OleGunner - 83,000
36. Straight Edge - 83,000
36. ZachzOOming - 83,000
43. robo - 86,000
44. Loudninja - 88,000
44. Polip Fawn - 88,000
44. Rymuth - 88,000
44. prag16 - 88,000
48. The 8-Bit Raider - 89,000
48. foxbeldin - 89,000
50. Asd202 - 90,000
50. Darth Smurf X - 90,000
52. Mister Megative - 91,000
52. Road - 91,000
54. Crimson_Gold - 92,000
54. watdaeff4 - 92,000
56. jjonez18 - 93,000
57. RexNovis - 99,000
58. Man-is-Obsolete - 101,000
59. Welfare - 104,000
60. panda-zebra - 106,000
61. BlackBuzzard - 107,000
61. Ryng_Tolu - 107,000
63. jroc74 - 108,000
63. super6646 - 108,000
65. Triggerhappytel - 113,000
65. andy_lhc - 113,000
67. TheCarrotKiller - 114,000
68. pitseleh - 115,000
69. Elandyll - 118,000
69. Pillville - 118,000
71. Fat4all - 119,000
71. orfax - 119,000
73. Raider1874 - 120,000
73. wachie - 120,000
75. HanzSnubSnub - 123,000
76. Sangetsu-II - 125,000
77. im_dany - 128,000
78. ascii42 - 133,000
78. bud23 - 133,000
80. Prototype Viktor - 137,000
81. Trust me, I'm a PhD - 139,000
82. Jigorath - 141,000
83. Serenity - 143,000
84. GameWhisperer - 146,000
85. IAmRandom31 - 147,000
86. Sloane_Ranger - 148,000
87. Toro - 152,000
88. GifGafIsTheBestGaf - 153,000
88. gtj1092 - 153,000
90. 5Twist - 156,000
90. anexanhume - 156,000
92. Javin98 - 158,000
92. Megadragon15 - 158,000
92. Possumowner - 158,000
95. freefornow - 161,000
96. slavesnyder - 168,000
97. Tivor Tontomo - 173,000
97. michaelius - 173,000
99. Zero-Crescent - 176,000
100. ghost4soul - 180,000
101. DriftingSpirit - 183,000
101. ethomaz - 183,000
103. Jamix012 - 187,000
104. Venom Fox - 189,000
105. harrisk954 - 191,000
106. roninwarrior92 - 193,000
107. samar11 - 198,000
108. d0hv - 202,000
109. Conduit - 203,000
110. mejin - 213,000
111. perfectchaos007 - 216,000
112. Pachter - 223,000
113. twinturbo2 - 227,000
114. Stanng243 - 233,000
115. MasterSheen - 245,000
116. Blobbers - 247,000
116. Michael Armbrust - 247,000
118. DieH@rd - 274,000
119. renjworks - 275,000
120. daniel77733 - 278,000
121. Apt101 - 290,000
122. Bioshocker - 293,000
122. tearsintherain - 293,000
124. Aeqvitas - 308,000
125. orochi91 - 338,000
Points
Code:
September 2015 Overall 2015 Top (7/9)
01. Tratorn 120.67 allan-bh 716.10
02. NateDrake 115.59 donny2112 716.03
03. Spazgadget 115.39 madp0k 715.18
04. shinra-bansho 113.14 shinra-bansho 709.76
05. DrWong 109.73 Tratorn 699.97
06. astrogamer 109.32 freefornow 696.50
07. skedar897 108.71 BlackBuzzard 694.67
08. jayu26 105.69 jayu26 694.35
09. aaronwt 102.99 Final Verdict 693.35
10. noobie 101.83 archnemesis 693.08
11. Giriath_89 101.45 Javin98 689.07
12. Ombala 101.25 Welfare 688.79
13. Rand6 101.14 theprodigy 687.86
14. Elios83 100.99 Road 687.04
15. prag16 100.92 doicare 685.36
16. ZachzOOming 100.76 astrogamer 684.70
17. Kayant 100.66 Ombala 681.00
18. Tubie 100.55 RexNovis 680.70
19. foxbeldin 100.37 Bruno MB 675.11
20. doicare 100.37 Darth Smurf X 674.99
21. donny2112 100.36 Megadragon15 674.52
22. Bruno MB 100.03 CorporateClown 674.32
23. Hammer24 99.98 skedar897 671.85
24. Mister Megative 99.89 prag16 670.98
25. Sterok 99.67 Sangetsu-II 670.05
26. CorporateClown 99.60 Rymuth 668.84
27. der_feine_herr 99.44 Chobel 668.68
28. allan-bh 99.34 1st Course 668.65
29. archnemesis 99.09 noobie 668.48
30. Kill3r7 99.03 5Twist 668.48
31. GamerJM 98.93 TheCarrotKiller 667.96
32. theprodigy 98.91 KillerMan91 665.48
33. Canis lupus 98.83 michaelius 664.58
34. 1st Course 98.70 Trust me, I'm a PhD 663.22
35. Straight Edge 98.67 pitseleh 657.53
36. BlackBuzzard 98.63 Untalkative_Bunny 656.63
37. Rymuth 98.49 Elandyll 655.74
38. Darth Smurf X 98.12 Kill3r7 654.06
39. Raider1874 98.08 anexanhume 653.38
40. pitseleh 98.00 Pillville 653.37
41. The 8-Bit Raider 98.00 slavesnyder 653.25
42. Asd202 97.83 wachie 652.59
43. Ryng_Tolu 97.68 orfax 651.65
44. Loudninja 97.63 Zero-Crescent 649.65
45. IAmRandom31 97.45 Elios83 648.99
46. SupperCrunch 97.19 gtj1092 648.32
47. madp0k 97.07 Prototype Viktor 644.15
48. specialK 96.91 andy_lhc 643.72
49. jjonez18 96.87 jjonez18 642.55
50. KillerMan91 96.72 jroc74 641.84Congratulations, Tratorn!
Top 3 photo finish in Units this month! :O