What I don't understand are the German hints.
I mean, okay, taken at face value, what more can be done realistically with the axe and picture? Suppose that the progress on that front, if it exists, is completely independent from any events triggered up to that point with the exception of the necessary ones (ie, getting the lockpick, the axe, etc). The picture can be rotated arbitrarily iirc, so there's a possibility -- however slight -- that a particular rotation can initiate something, but how would we know?
As far as the axe, it would seem obvious that the "event" referenced would be what happens after you answer the phone, but it's been attempted numerous times to use L2 and R2 to defend/attack the family man. We've probably beaten the walls bloody with the axe in the attack.
What haven't we really done, if we're not including different permutations of events up to that point?