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Super Smash Bros. for 3DS & Wii U Thread XI: Where 90% correct equals 100% wrong

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T

Toxi

Banned
Starphoenix said:
I can do better then that: the Pokémon X/Y leaks. There was a lot of wrong information mixed with legitimate.
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And the issue here is that people are immediately assuming everything that was not discredited is legitimate.

It's clear his leak for Shulk, Chorus Men, and Chrom was either based on incomplete info, outdated info, or was just plain fabricated (leakers often do that if they build up a reputation). Either way, you can't assume it's made in good knowledge unless you're willing to do some serious mental gymnastics to ignore Robin.
 
E

emb

Member
balladofwindfishes said:
He used their internal development name. Pokemon from X/Y was literally what Greninja was called on the roster. I wouldn't even be surprised if his file structure in the code still names him as such.
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I think that user was just talking about the leaks for the games Pokemon X and Y, not the Smash leaks about Greninja.
 
O

OricWindstar

Member
Not sure if this has been shared, but Prog is doing a Reddit AMA and, when asked about his thoughts on the competitive potential of Smash 4, he had this to say:
In the eyes of the competitive scene, Melee suffers from Illmatic-itis. Sure, in this case, this is the second release, but everything is judged (for better or worse) comparatively to it. I think it's solid, it'll definitely have a good competitive scene (unfortunately, a lot of Brawl players have thrown in the towel for prepping for that release, but they're looking to dominate from day one [which in a Smash scene with new sponsors and teams interested]), and with the nudges from Nintendo, they really want to see it harnessed as both a casual and a competitive title. I love how the game looks, sounds, etc. but it'll always be judged in relation to Melee in the eyes of many, so it won't get a fair shake, unfortunately. The promise is there, it just depends on how deep players want to delve.
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I found it interesting and more or less agree with it.
 
G

GreenLiquid

Neo Member
Revven said:
It really is silly. I think it's basically a case of a similar situation to pre-Brawl where R.O.B was getting leaked beforehand and people not wanting to believe those leaks simply because R.O.B was on it. Except for this leak, it's two reasons why people don't want to believe it:

1. Two newcomers left on the list (making people assume that's all the newcomers left -- people want more newcomers)
2. Chorus Men/Marshall (whichever one it is) is a character those people don't want.

You can still be skeptical about it all you want but calling it 'fake' based on your preferences for characters when the list had been correct up to Robin/Lucina is asinine.

I'd even consider it rare that leaks of any kind don't have some holes in them or make mistakes. Remember ntkrnl with all those Microsoft leaks? He had posted some inaccuracies (we didn't know they were inaccurate until later, obviously) and not everybody started posting 'Fake! He got [insert thing wrong here]!' way after some of the other things he said that came true (to my recollection, anyway).

It's a really naive mentality to have.
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Here's the thing that gets to me though, and it's not that information turned out to be false: it's the kind of information that turned out to be false.

On a project the size of Smash Bros. I would not seriously expect the entire development, testing, marketing, etc. staff to be knowledgeable of every detail of the project. With that in mind, there's something somewhat contradictory about the details that were wrong: two justifications I've heard for Chrom being incorrectly predicted were that 1) the source was working on the model/animations but didn't know how they were being used or 2) the source didn't know who Shulk/Chrom/Lucina actually were and mixed up names. At the same time as this dilemma is going on, the source also claimed to know what particular character was being revealed via stream on a certain day. I would argue that this is contradictory with both explanations above because explanation 1 assumes the source was working on modelling and was not well informed, which would hardly be the case if he had specific info from the marketing department that he didn't need, and explanation 2 assumes that someone working with marketing didn't know who the characters were, which strikes me as very unlikely to say the least.

Top it off with the fact that when questioned, the Gematsu leaker had some kind of defense for himself concocted within the half hour, as opposed to the Brawl leakers who were basically "take it or leave it" with their info, and I can't help but think that things don't add up.

But again, confirmation bias and all that. I could be overthinking it, but this was my first impression upon seeing the Fire Emblem trailer -- prior to that, I thought the leak was likely true.
 
M

Monkey Blue

Neo Member
BassForever said:
90% correct = 100% wrong

Gematsu leak had genuine info from some point in development, clearly some of his info was either outdated or misinformed (chrom instead of robin/lucina, maybe marshall instead of chorus men) but to completely deny him when he has gotten more right then wrong is silly.
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You don't think he could have just got the e3 2013/2014 reveals A DAY before they were officially announced. Also he got 4 characters wrong 3 misses and a deconfirm, Rosalina, Robin, Lucina and Chrom on a monday that Shulk was meant to be announced. According to him Sakurai changed his mind and announced Robin instead but then we had the famitsu article which means Shulk was not going to be announced that monday it was always meant to be Robin. Monday may confirm a LoZ rep and put an end to all of these shenanigans.
 
T

Toxi

Banned
The source who gave legit info is most likely not working directly on the game, since leaking that sort of stuff is a great way to lose your job.
 
K

Kriken

Member
Monkey Blue said:
You don't think he could have just got the e3 2013/2014 reveals A DAY before they were officially announced. Also he got 4 characters wrong 3 misses and a deconfirm, Rosalina, Robin, Lucina and Chrom on a monday that Shulk was meant to be announced. According to him Sakurai changed his mind and announced Robin instead but then we had the famitsu article which means Shulk was not going to be announced that monday it was always meant to be Robin. Monday may confirm a LoZ rep and put an end to all of these shenanigans.
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...He called Pac Man, Little Mac and Mii before the E3 2013

What are you even talking about?
 
G

Gonzo The Great

Banned
Kriken said:
...He called Pac Man, Little Mac and Mii before the E3 2013

What are you even talking about?
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In all fairness, all of those were easy predictions. I'm still under the belief that the initial leak was real, but then he got greedy and fabricated a second leak for attention. Since then, literally everybody has been putting Shulk and Chorus Men on their fake rosters even though neither has been confirmed. And personally, I'm not convinced that Shulk is going to make it in. Congratulations, this is what he wanted.
 
T

Toxi

Banned
Monkey Blue said:
You know Namco is working with Nintendo on this game right? You know the boxing ring is in the FIRST TRAILER right? you know mii is the most predictable guess ever right?
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Wii Fit Trainer on the other hand is not predictable or obvious.

I think the Gematsu leaker had some legit info. However, he's got bits and pieces, not a comprehensive picture of the game's full roster. And the Chrom prediction suggests he might have fabricated some info, since Chrom is one of those "no-brainer" choices people were already putting on rosters like Shulk.

Remember Famous Mortimer? Guy said some legit stuff, then spouted a bunch of vague bullshit and got banned for slander. People took his word as the gospel even though after a few initial facts it became clear he was out of the loop.
 
K

Kyzer

Banned
I'm all for the random button not being in line with the slots and mewtwo filling it out!

I'm also for the leaks being totally wrong and having way more
 
K

Kriken

Member
Monkey Blue said:
You know Namco is working with Nintendo on this game right? You know the boxing ring is in the FIRST TRAILER right? you know mii is the most predictable guess ever right?
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Because everyone and their mother expected Wii Fit Trainer and the Villager, right? Also, the post was on June 10th, the trailer was June 11th, can't claim the Boxing Ring coincidence without saying he knew ahead of time what the trailer would include
 
M

Monkey Blue

Neo Member
Kriken said:
Because everyone and their mother expected Wii Fit Trainer and the Villager, right? Also, the post was on June 10th, the trailer was June 11th, can't claim the Boxing Ring coincidence without saying he knew ahead of time what the trailer would include
Click to expand...

Did you forget my earlier post so quickly, you quoted it then I quoted you. This "Gematsu Leaker" said there were recent cuts and DLC and assured everyone that Chrom, Shulk and Chorus Men were still on the way a month before Chrom was deconfirmed.
 
K

Kriken

Member
Monkey Blue said:
Did you forget my earlier post so quickly, you quoted it then I quoted you. This "Gematsu Leaker" said there were recent cuts and DLC and assured everyone that Chrom, Shulk and Chorus Men were still on the way a month before Chrom was deconfirmed.
Click to expand...

In the same post where he said Palutena and Pokemon from X/Y?
 
E

emb

Member
Monkey Blue said:
You know Namco is working with Nintendo on this game right? You know the boxing ring is in the FIRST TRAILER right? you know mii is the most predictable guess ever right?
Click to expand...
Outside of Wii Fit Trainer, every character shown so far could be considered predictable (as well as all the characters in the leak, aside from Chorus Men). But getting so many right together is really impressive, and most likely meaningful.
 
G

Guesong

Member
Ryce said:
Mii Fighter isn't.
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To be fair, there's only so many ways one could name a Mii Fighting Dude.


Anyways, did we all not already agree that it doesn't matter because if the leak is right, as it did not include everything (Rosalina, Robin, Lucina) and had mistakes (Chrom/Shulk being revealed)? It's not white and black. It's not set in stone that Chorus Men and Shulk would be the only things left.
 
A

Ahnez

Member
I still believe in the leak

Statistically speaking.. Its impossible to guess all those characters.. and the point is not the ones he got right, but the wrong ones he didn't pick..

The only wrong one until now is Chrom, but it was really close.

If this leaker is legit, I imagine him being from the modelling team, as the character models are much better than any other model, its not hard for him to tell.

But Chrom model is a high quality character model, so its still possible..
 
R

Ryce

Member
Gonzo The Great said:
As for Greninja, a "sixth generation" Pokémon was an easy guess.
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The funny thing about that is very few people were actually expecting a playable X/Y Pokémon. It seemed like 75% of the roster predictions before Greninja's reveal simply contained the Brawl Pokémon cast plus Mewtwo.
 
N

Not75Drops

Member
Gonzo The Great said:
Palutena was already leaked and teased by Sakurai. As for Greninja, a "sixth generation" Pokémon was an easy guess. Now if he had specifically mentioned Greninja...
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Wasn't that leak confirmed fake?

Ryce said:
The funny thing about that is very few people were actually expecting a playable X/Y Pokémon. It seemed like 75% of the roster predictions before Greninja's reveal simply contained the Brawl Pokémon cast plus Mewtwo.
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Yeah. I saw people with Zoroark replacing Lucario but that wasn't going to happen seeing as Zoroark didn't catch on and XY were confirmed.
 
S

SmithnCo

Member
He still didn't say Rosalina, and for Greninja he only seemed to know it was a Pokemon from X/Y. So I would guess the leaker isn't someone highly involved but still has some contact with the characters.
 
M

Monkey Blue

Neo Member
Kriken said:
Based on what?
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Because 1. Chrom was deconfirmed

2. Pokemon from X/Y, I mean really this one is so vague it covers Mega Lucario/Charizard

3. Palutena was already leaked(?) and later that day we had the Palutenas temple statue Pic

4. The only info he missed is non e3 info (Rosalina, Robin, Lucina)
 
B

Beelzebufo

Banned
SmithnCo said:
He still didn't say Rosalina, and for Greninja he only seemed to know it was a Pokemon from X/Y. So I would guess the leaker isn't someone highly involved but still has some contact with the characters.
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This is explained by the info being early on, and by him not leaking the whole roster at first.

Let people who doubt the leak to keep doubting. They'll still be saying he was wrong if Shulk and Chorus Men are confirmed. It's pointless to argue with them.
 
C

Ceravic

Member
afoni said:
heretic
Click to expand...

Rabbit+Season.JPG
 
K

Kriken

Member
Monkey Blue said:
Because 1. Chrom was deconfirmed
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That's the only reasonable excuse you've got, the rest is hindsight and opinions

Edit: Also, done with this

Edit 2: Okay, his insistence of Shulk being the newcomer shown was also wrong, I'll give that, but it doesn't deconfirm Shulk at all
 
G

GreenLiquid

Neo Member
Kriken said:
That's the only reasonable excuse you've got, the rest is hindsight and opinions

Edit: Also, done with this

Edit 2: Okay, his insistence of Shulk being the newcomer shown was also wrong, I'll give that, but it doesn't deconfirm Shulk at all
Click to expand...

Absolutely -- and I think Shulk is pretty likely even without leak support. But I think that if, on balance, the things that turned out to be false cause one to conclude that the explanation that the leak is fake is more compelling than the explanation that the leak is true, then the character's chances have to be considered as they would be if there were no leak at all. Anyway, I've got nothing against people having faith in the leak, since I imagine we're all a bit biased in how we perceive it based on what things we want in the new game. I guess that's all I have to say about it. ^.^
 
M

Monkey Blue

Neo Member
Kriken said:
That's the only reasonable excuse you've got, the rest is hindsight and opinions

Edit: Also, done with this

Edit 2: Okay, his insistence of Shulk being the newcomer shown was also wrong, I'll give that, but it doesn't deconfirm Shulk at all
Click to expand...

In hindsight I realize I forgot to mention that he said Shulk would be announced when Robin/Lucina were and then said Sakurai had changed his mind and "you know how Sakurai is"

Edit: missed your second edit oops
 
R

Revven

Member
Guesong said:
Anyways, did we all not already agree that it doesn't matter because if the leak is right, as it did not include everything (Rosalina, Robin, Lucina) and had mistakes (Chrom/Shulk being revealed)? It's not white and black. It's not set in stone that Chorus Men and Shulk would be the only things left.
Click to expand...

Bolded: This was my main point, most people against the leak have this idea that Shulk/Chorus Men are the last two when past history has shown that the source didn't name one or two characters in advance (mainly Rosalina) and the leaker didn't even say that was the full list of newcomers, either. No leaker is ever 100% right about their information, there's bound to be inaccuracies with things but it doesn't automatically mean Shulk/Chorus Men are wrong.

I just hate people who call it 'fake' merely because it doesn't have what he/she wants out of a roster for Smash Bros. R.O.B taught everyone that because an obscure character you don't like is on the list doesn't make it any less legitimate -- or simply a character you don't like doesn't make a leak less legitimate. You can hope it's wrong but it isn't wrong until those things don't come true. That's why I feel Shulk/Chorus Men are still happening, despite Chrom/Robin/Lucina and the Shulk trailer mix-up happening.

This logic doesn't apply to random fake leaks, obviously. There needs to be some kind of credibility/truth attached to it initially.
 
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