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[NullPointer]

That doesn't mean they will accept a declaration of war from. An unpopular president without provocation. Even the Iraq war had to be sold on the idea that they were involved in 9/11.

Kim continually provokes. And he's been provoking with nukes.

 

[Wolfgunblood Garopa]

I'm with those who are cynical on the timing of this discovery and the supposed intelligence sources behind it. The whole thing conjures up images of a similar incident from 14 years ago.



There is no denying that war boosts presidents' approval ratings. Not only that but there's this long standing (and, frankly, idiotic) romantic belief that "we shouldn't change presidents in time of war". That was a major campaign point for Bush back in 2004 and was also used for McCain's run in 2008, trying to expand the notion from "president" to "party".

There's a major narcissist running the country who has the ultimate power to ignore his joint chiefs (hell, he could dismiss them at will if he so chooses) who is currently embroiled in a whole lot of scandals while his popularity continues to drop. Pretty soon his popularity numbers will match the same voting percentage as the Republican base. People saying "oh there won't be war", you don't think Trump would gladly Wag the Dog so he could become more popular as the clichéd "War Time President" and almost guarantee a second term?

Some of the comments in this thread are maddeningly infuriating. He's going to listen to more even-tempered Joint Chiefs? Since when? Trump listens to Trump and his closest inner circle and that's it. He fires people who isn't loyal. He ostracizes people he can't easily fire but wants to be rid of. And his CLOSEST adviser is a war mongering xenophobe. You'll have to pardon me if I don't have the same level of confidence that he won't launch a military campaign on a whim if it means appeasing his own narcissistic desires.

E:


Even at the height of Soviet hubris, they weren't teaching their elementary school children about killing American soldiers nor did they have murals plastered everywhere showing major American landscapes in flame with their leader constantly on state TV talking about leaving America in fire and rubble.

We know Kim Jong Un's regime does this thanks to North Korean defectors. NK's entire society has spent the last 6 decades spinning a narrative and brainwashing their people with the very idea of destroying the United States, even if doing so is merely a Pyrrhic victory.

The Bush admin was cooking their own version of intelligence briefings for Congress, the lies were 'credible'. This WH has zero credibility and a contentious relationship with the IC.

The US flattened North Korea in the last war and the US military gave North Korea all the ammo they needed to use the US as their mortal enemy. There were no targets left in North Korea when the US military was done.

 

[Shoeless]

Trump is a loose cannon but there are generals in the military who will stop this.

I think the only way the generals can stop this if Trump has his mind made up is to stage a military coup. Legally, they can't actually disobey or ignore his orders once he's issued them, can they?

 

[Xando]

That's not what a nuclear test is though.

GAF's foreign policy analysis being "wow they're all mental" is so disappointing.

They tested five nukes since 2006(Two alone last year).

 

[Kthulhu]

Kim continually provokes. And he's been provoking with nukes.

Missile tests and saber rattling aren't provocation.

 

[malfcn]

Fuels my fear of waking up to a living nightmare.

 

[Oriel]

Pretty sure there's a few steps between miniturization and MIRVs.

Well I was just using MIRV's as an example. Obviously a NK missile would have a single warhead (for now) but the principle is the same, a re-entry vehicle would (most likely) have similar characteristics as a US or Russian warhead.

 

[LizardKing]

Honestly, this hysteria is too much for me.

What hysteria? Countries land grab all the time. Hell Russia did a few years ago and the world did jack shit. The US itself tried and failed to stop it in Vietnam. There is probably no more well known example of a country wanting another country than NK's desire for SK. Not saying it's inevitable or even likely, but having nukes gives them a path with which they can take action and not have to worry about being wiped off the earth.

 

[Nazgul_Hunter]

Missile tests and saber rattling aren't provocation.

The Clinton admin negotiator with NK was just on CNN saying that as far as he understands, NK is not provoking, but rather they see the weapons as necessary to avoid suffering the same fate as Hussein and Qadafi... which makes sense from Kim-jong Un's pov

 

[commedieu]

Fuels my fear of waking up to a living nightmare.

We've been through this. NK isn't going to nuke anyone.

 

[Obliterator]

America has no right to think it can just go and take out other country's governments.

In the case of North Korea the US, or anyone at all, would have been justified in taking out that regime. One that is murdering and enslaving its own population.

That said it was never possible to do on an ethical sense because it would essentially doom a huge number of innocent lives in South Korea.

 

[MadJackChurchill]

They tested five nukes since 2006(Two alone last year).

Missiles aren't nukes though.

 

[LegendofJoe]

We've been through this. NK isn't going to nuke anyone.

A lot of people are afraid because of Trump, not North Korea. They don't trust him to make the right decisions. And given everything that has happened with Trump I say that people are right to be concerned.

That said the factor that will hopefully prevent Trump from courting disaster is bribe money from China.

 

[Kthulhu]

The Clinton admin negotiator with NK was just on CNN saying that as far as he understands, NK is not provoking, but rather they see the weapons as necessary to avoid suffering the same fate as Hussein and Qadafi... which makes sense from Kim-jong Un's pov

Vox said something similar not too long ago.

 

[MetalGearZed]

Well this is just fantastic. Good thing the US has a stable, even-handed diplomat at it's head--

oh wait, I'm in the trump timeline again, aren't I?

maybe when we get blown up we'll go the Hillary timeline and all will be well

 

[the_id]

Premptive war may happen right? Or it may not. Trump is crazy enough to start one though.
Who's to say he won't fire the nukes to limit ground forces casualty.

Also, China has been winning diplomatically in SEA. A war could shift the pendulum to Americas side again.

 

[GSG Flash]

Do you think US citizens view New York being nuked in the same vein as Seoul being captured? They aren't the same no matter how much you want to believe it. No way under any circumstances that the US will invade NK once there are enough nukes to cripple it short of NK attacking US soil itself. That includes invasion of SK.

Do you realize the amount of military build up the US has in SK? NK might as well be attacking a US military base on US soil if they attack SK.

I agree with Dopus, attacking SK is as good as attacking the US itself. It's not gonna fly.

 

[Kickz]

LMAO this pic is hilarious for some reason

 

[Dopus]

What hysteria? Countries land grab all the time. Hell Russia did a few years ago and the world did jack shit. The US itself tried and failed to stop it in Vietnam. There is probably no more well known example of a country wanting another country than NK's desire for SK. Not saying it's inevitable or even likely, but having nukes gives them a path with which they can take action and not have to worry about being wiped off the earth.

The United States has 15 active military bases in South Korea with over 20,000 military personnel stationed there. This isn't even counting the 20+ in Japan. It's not going to happen. This isn't like Ukraine at all. South Korea and Japan are of extreme strategic importance to the United States even without North Korea posturing because it allows them to assert their dominance in the region with the ever growing China looming beyond the horizon.

The comparison to Vietnam is also faulty. North Korea doesn't have a world power backing them nor do they have expansionist policies. It is most definitely hysteria.

 

[Kickz]

Well GAF, it's been real.

Looks like this is the one time its good to be in the MidWest instead of West coast or East coast..

 

[Xando]

Missiles aren't nukes though.

Once again,
They tested nukes aswell as missiles

 

[NOLA_Gaffer]

Can we hold off on global war for a few years? I haven't been able to visit Japan yet.

 

[LizardKing]

Do you realize the amount of military build up the US has in SK? NK might as well be attacking a US military base on US soil if they attack SK.

I agree with Dopus, attacking SK is as good as attacking the US itself. It's not gonna fly.

The United States has 15 active military bases in South Korea with over 20,000 military personnel stationed there. This isn't even counting the 20+ in Japan. It's not going to happen. This isn't like Ukraine at all. South Korea and Japan are of extreme strategic importance to the United States even without North Korea posturing because it allows them to assert their dominance in the region with the ever growing China looming beyond the horizon.

The comparison to Vietnam is also faulty. North Korea doesn't have a world power backing them nor do they have expansionist policies. It is most definitely hysteria.

NK has over 6 million active military personnel and 13 million possible lol. With their entire force in the country bordering SK. It would take a Vietnam like war to stop them. Maybe it would have support within the US, maybe it wouldn't. I think it would but either way NK doesn't have anything to lose with this deterrence. And again, they want SK. This is well established.

 

[Kthulhu]

NK has over 6 million active military personnel and 13 million possible lol. It would take an all out Vietnam like war to stop them. Maybe it would have support, maybe it wouldn't. I think it would but either way NK doesn't have anything to lose with this deterrence now.

China has said in the past that if North Korea initiated a war that they wouldn't support them.

 

[Coriolanus]

Do you realize the amount of military build up the US has in SK? NK might as well be attacking a US military base on US soil if they attack SK.

I agree with Dopus, attacking SK is as good as attacking the US itself. It's not gonna fly.

Which is precisely why NK has never really done it.

 

[LizardKing]

China has said in the past that if North Korea initiated a war that they wouldn't support them.

I meant if US citizens would want to fight another Vietnam.

 

[Dopus]

NK has over 6 million active military personnel and 13 million possible lol. It would take an all out Vietnam like war to stop them. Maybe it would have support, maybe it wouldn't. I think it would but either way NK doesn't have anything to lose with this deterrence now.

Do they have air superiority? No.

Do they have a naval force? No.

How much projection power do they have? Very little.

Do they have any key allies? No.

Do they have expansionist policies? No.

Is there any indication that they're going to launch an invasion into South Korea and attack a country with the backing of the largest Army in the world? No.

What is there to gain from attacking South Korea? The likely death of the regime.

 

[dinoric]

Because while the rest of the world is taking steps to limit and reduce their nuclear arsenal, it should not be tolerated for another nation to gain nuclear weapons. It cannot be justified.

So when has America taken steps to reduce its nuclear arsenal?

 

[MadJackChurchill]

Once again,
They tested nukes aswell as missiles

They tested low yield nukes, yeah. They have suggested it's a miniaturized hydrogen bomb, when observers have cast doubt on this (arguing they were hydrogen accelerated atoms). They would definitely test again, and the shockwave would register.

 

[Zophar]

Like I've said before: get nervous when the Pentagon starts activating units and personnel start getting called to duty en masse. Until then, ease off the paranoia a little.

 

[LizardKing]

Do they have air superiority? No.

Do they have a naval force? No.

How much projection power do they have? Very little.

Do they have any key allies? No.

Do they have expansionist policies? No.

Is there any indication that they're going to launch an invasion into South Korea and attack a country with the backing of the largest Army in the world? No.

What is there to gain from attacking South Korea? The likely death of the regime.

How many of those things applied to Vietnam? And yet... And again, yes, they want SK. My whole point is that there will be no death of the regime! You cannot invade NK if they invade SK. It will not happen.

 

[moggio]

So when has America taken steps to reduce its nuclear arsenal?

Well it reduced them by two when it dropped them on Japan that one time.

 

[SgtCobra]

Let's just wait and see what happens next! /s

NK has over 6 million active military personnel and 13 million possible lol. With their entire force in the country bordering SK. It would take a Vietnam like war to stop them. Maybe it would have support within the US, maybe it wouldn't. I think it would but either way NK doesn't have anything to lose with this deterrence. And again, they want SK. This is well established.

Superiority in a war depends on much more than military personnel.

 

[Dynamite Shikoku]

The world has really dropped the ball on these fuckers

 

[Xando]

They tested low yield nukes, yeah. They have suggested it's a miniaturized hydrogen bomb, when observers have cast doubt on this (arguing they were hydrogen accelerated atoms). They would definitely test again, and the shockwave would register.

It doesn’t matter what type of nukes they have.

They don’t need a Tsar bomb to threaten US cities.

 

[MadJackChurchill]

NK has over 6 million active military personnel and 13 million possible lol. With their entire force in the country bordering SK. It would take a Vietnam like war to stop them. Maybe it would have support within the US, maybe it wouldn't. I think it would but either way NK doesn't have anything to lose with this deterrence. And again, they want SK. This is well established.

Number of infantry means nothing though. Their tech is Soviet era. Their training likewise. They have a few MiGs and Sukhois. Half their artillery shells are past their best. All analysis points to KPA being a strictly asymmetrical defensive force. Invading Pyongyang would be prohibitively costly, but the North has zero chance of pushing into Seoul.

It doesn’t matter what type of nukes they have.

They don’t need a Tsar bomb to threaten US cities.

Misread your first post and thought you were equating missile launches to nuke tests. You're right. They can wreck havoc on California.

 

[BocoDragon]

We have Kim Jon Un, an over weight man-child who is as about as rational as a two year old, and we have Trump, who you can basically repeat the same thing. Rational is neither of strong suits.

I've never actually seen this Kim demonstrate irrationality and I always wonder where people get this from. I think he wears the clothes of the 20th century foreign dictator and people project a lot of ideas about "wild-eyed, mad kings" onto that role. Maybe people get their worldview from Team America and think that's 1. Accurate and 2. The same Kim. But based on his actual track record, this guy is a docile prince who does what his generals advise for their own self-interest and little else. I could be proven wrong any day, but I know for a fact he hasn't demonstrated being an irrational actor until now.

To be clear, the full concept is rational self-interest. Though the NK regime is wildly immoral, I believe they are rational actors in service of their own preservation.

Trump has been demonstrated to be quite irrational, ironically. But he is irrational in the USA (better than being a rational actor in NK) and I think there is a wall of generals who are rational working with him to come to a sober choice.

 

[the_id]

Well it reduced them by two when it dropped them on Japan that one time.

That leaves 6,798 more.

 

[LizardKing]

Let's just wait and see what happens next! /s


Superiority in a war depends on much more than military personnel.

Yep. But I'd rather have 6 million with probably 10 million during wartime than the USs 1.2 million total which would be hamstrung fighting a purely defensive war. It would not be easy. I don't see us bringing back the draft either but who knows. You guys are making the exact arguments of why we should have won in Vietnam.

 

[MadJackChurchill]

Yep. But I'd rather have 6 million with probably 10 million during wartime than the USs 1.2 million total which would be hamstrung fighting a purely defensive war. It would not be easy. I don't see us bringing back the draft either but who knows.

They don't have the oil, rations nor ammunition for full mobilization in hostile territory. How will they nourish troops when they've crossed (somehow) the most mined land border in the world? Yeah the tunnels were great ten years ago, but most of them have collapsed. And the mini-submarines can only carry three men maximum. How are they going to get across?

That 6 million number consists of the Peasant Guard, which are seen parades as a few volunteers with AK's and a tractor-pulled missile launcher - hardly a threat.

 

[Ovid]

In the short term I'm worried about Seoul and Tokyo more than LA and Seattle.

Easier targets for Kim.

 

[jamieson87]

So when has America taken steps to reduce its nuclear arsenal?

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.ne...ce-deployed-missiles-drop-lowest-571170?amp=1

 

[Oriel]

The world has really dropped the ball on these fuckers

What do you think the world could have done differently, short of a resumption of the Korean War?

 

[RPGCrazied]

Jim Acosta‏Verified account
@Acosta

Trump: North Korea "best not make any more threats to the U.S. They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen." per pool

Yikes. The worst time to have someone like him President.

 

[Wet Bloodfart]

Jesus Christ. He’s going to ensure the deaths of millions of people, Americans included.

 

[LizardKing]

They don't have the oil, rations nor ammunition for full mobilization in hostile territory. How will they nourish troops when they've crossed (somehow) the most mined land border in the world? Yeah the tunnels were great ten years ago, but most of them have collapsed. And the mini-submarines can only carry three men maximum. How are they going to get across?

That 6 million number consists of the Peasant Guard, which are seen parades as a few volunteers with AK's and a tractor-pulled missile launcher - hardly a threat.

I don't think anyone on this board knows what they could have planned to overcome such an obstacle but to dismiss it offhand is foolish. Look somewhere along the line it seems people started to take what I was saying as NK would win in a battle with the US over SK. I'm not saying anything other than they may think they have a chance. My one and only point was that they could now take such an action and have nothing to lose and will not be wiped off the face of the earth because the US will not invade NK with a few thousand ICBM nukes aimed at American cities.

 

[Oriel]

In the short term I'm worried about Seoul and Tokyo more than LA and Seattle.

Easier targets for Kim.

He's not going to nuke cities for the hell of it. Even if there was a war I'd doubt he'd risk it going nuclear.

Yikes. The worst time to have someone like him President.

Bluster and bullshit from the Twatterer-in-Chief.

 

[Dopus]

How many of those things applied to Vietnam? And yet... And again, yes, they want SK. My whole point is that there will be no death of the regime! You cannot invade NK if they invade SK. It will not happen.

Yes, you're right. China and the Soviets definitely didn't help in any way.

What we're talking about here is this hypothetical invasion of South Korea from North Korea. Beyond the obvious, it being a move that makes zero sense from the regime as the losses they would incur would be colossal in addition to the cost to major cities in South Korea and the United States military itself. They wouldn't be able to take South Korea and occupy it given the fact that it is effectively a US stronghold and of extreme strategic importance.

 

[Lightning Count]

Jesus Christ. He’s going to ensure the deaths of millions of people, Americans included.

If he empties the full US nuclear arsenal at NK, the whole world is fucked, not just just the US or North Korea.

 

[smokeymicpot]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/895003566460596224

WASHINGTON (AP) — Trump: If North Korea escalates nuclear threat, 'they will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen'.