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[chaosblade]

These seem to be showing like 2-3 inches here.

That's 3 inches too much. Stay the hell away, snow.


But realistically, that's probably an overestimation and we'll get a light dusting that won't impact the roads, if anything. But once the roads are even slightly compromised, nope nope nope.

 

[thecouncil]

Possibly two feet of snow here in Philly? Christ. Guess I'd better get my errands done tomorrow.

I'll guess two inches is probably closer to the reality for typical snowstorm threats here in Philly.

 

[chaosblade]

I'm a little confused on how to read those weather prediction maps and I'm going to be in Connecticut during this weekend. Are we gonna get heavy snow?

Different models seem to be showing 5-10 inches, varying by model and location in the state.

 

[Matsukaze]

I'll guess two inches is probably closer to the reality for typical snowstorm threats here in Philly.

Normally I'd agree, but last winter was bad, so I don't know what to expect this time around.

 

[NihonTiger90]

Latest GFS run totals.

Look at the wind!

That 72-hour snowfall total. Yikes.

 

[jerry113]

Different models seem to be showing 5-10 inches, varying by model and location in the state.

please no

 

[maquiladora]

Latest Euro model is out. Looks like 28-32 inches for DC area. Jackpot area is 44 inches.

 

[Jpop]

I'm right by that 30" area. Time to stock up on supplies.

 

[Lord of Castamere]

Already snowing. Gotta build up an inch or two base before the real shit begins ;_;

 

[criesofthepast]

My fiancee is supposed to fly into Baltimore on Thursday and back out Saturday night. Trying to convince her to fly back on Friday.

I fly Saturday through Washington...

So is this storm happening for sure? When will we know? Great timing mother nature ya cunt!

 

[Smokey_Run]

That's what happens when it's still several days away and the exact track changes a bit every time a new model rolls out. Give it another 24 hours or so and there will be a lot less fluctuation.

Most definitely. And even then, I'll believe it when I see it. I've seen too many "monster storms" turn into a couple inches at best even at the last minute.

 

[Mully]

I'm on mobile right now, so bear with me. Both 0z runs of the GFS and the Euro are out. Comparing the two, shows a possible trend south for the storm as it begins to enter the Atlantic. If it enters near Myrtle Beach or Columbia, SC areas like NYC, Connecticut, and southern New England will be borderline areas for significant snows. If the storm enters near the Delmarva, areas like Albany and Boston will be border line areas for major snow.

More to come later, but residents of DC, Baltimore, and points west should prepare for at least a foot of snow by the end of the weekend. It looks like there could be more than that, but there still a lot of uncertainty about the track.

Finally, people living on the New Jersey and Long Island coasts should start thinking about flood preparedness plans. High winds and coastal flooding will be a major component of this storm.

Curious to see
how well they hold with air coming off the ocean since ocean temps off the coast of delaware and nj are like 50 degrees or something insane right now. but it is definitely looking all snow for me at least.

SSTs (sea surface temperatures) were at similar numbers during PD II in 2003. It's not that big of an issue especially with a low bombing out (rapidly intensifying) like it's expected to. The storm could be strong enough to keep air temperatures below 32 degrees.

Are we looking at the same forecasts? I'm in the Hartford area, and everyone is now saying 3-6 inches.

I'm saying areas between Baltimore and Hartford could expect a 1ft + from the storm. Not all areas will reach a foot, but someone within that zone will receive more than 1-2ft.

 

[Turbowaffles]

Does anyone have any estimates on how much Maryland is getting? Particularly the Frederick and Hagerstown areas? I'm on mobile without my contacts right now so maps are hard to see lol

 

[Yeul]

Does anyone have any estimates on how much Maryland is getting? Particularly the Frederick and Hagerstown areas? I'm on mobile without my contacts right now so maps are hard to see lol

Definitely at least a foot, but some of the maps go to like 23"+.

 

[forgrim]

Not really sure how long haul flights work, so if anyone has experience... im flying fourteen hours into nyc so what hapens when ten hours into the flight, the weather gets terrible? Sort of scared

 

[maquiladora]

Does anyone have any estimates on how much Maryland is getting? Particularly the Frederick and Hagerstown areas? I'm on mobile without my contacts right now so maps are hard to see lol

At the moment looks like 1-2 ft for that area. It's too early to say though. Could be more, could be less.

 

[Mully]

I'd like to show you all some of the trends I've been noticing since Sunday morning.

Below is the 1/17/16 morning 0z GFS for 6z Saturday 1/23/16. One map shows the upper atmosphere, the other shows the precipitation line. It shows a robust snow storm reaching the NYC and Boston metro areas with heavy snow by noon on Saturday 1/23/16. DC was all rain at the time and there is no high pressure over Nova Scotia. According to that run, the storm would have been in a prime location for a major snowstorm for areas 50 miles south of NYC, and as far north as Portland, ME.

Below this is the 1/18/16 morning 0z GFS for 6z Saturday 1/23/16. Again, one map shows the upper atmosphere, the other shows the precipitation. Look where the low is now. It's further south. In fact, it's much further south than the run shown above. The system is also 6mb weaker than the system shown during the 1/17/16 0z GFS for 6z Saturday. On top of that, there's also a high 200 miles north of Maine on this run.

This change in the model shows that the storm may be further south than we initially believed because of a weaker system and a stronger high building over eastern Canada.

Now let's look at this morning's 0z GFS run for the same time on Saturday 1/23/16. There is no high over northern Maine, but the system is even weaker than the previous model run. What I'm saying is that for this storm to push further north, it needs to be much stronger. It needs to be stronger to reach New England like it initially showed us on Sunday morning. Places like DC and Philly will get the brunt of this storm, but for it to hit places like Boston, Hartford, Providence, and possibly even NYC at the level it will hit the Mid-Atlantic, the storm needs to increase in strength.

This storm has been suppressed (decreased in strength) for a number of days now. The high placement shown on Monday was initially worrying for snow lovers in New England, but now what's worrying is the strength of the system. This storm is going to give the Mid-Atlantic states significant snow, but for places like NYC, Boston, and Hartford, the storm needs to gain strength and not dip so far south over the next couple of runs. I'm not sure that will happen given the model trends over the last few days.

 

[Bluth54]

Latest GFS run totals.

That is an impressive amount of potential snow.
I'm just happy that Eastern Iowa is at 0 inches.

 

[WeAreStarStuff]

Latest models are looking crazy for the DC area. It's prob. time my girl and I start stocking up for a fun weekend. I honestly hope we get pounded by snow; snow days are awesome.

 

[kaskade]

St pretty crazy how much this changes for me. Sometimes it's showing like 5 inches and now it's back at like 15. I guess we really won't know more until tomorrow or Friday for some solid totals?

 

[Slayer-33]

Shit never delivers for nyc. Come on! I want two feet.

 

[Mully]

St pretty crazy how much this changes for me. Sometimes it's showing like 5 inches and now it's back at like 15. I guess we really won't know more until tomorrow or Friday for some solid totals?

Never take accumulation maps seriously outside of 24 hours before a storm. What you should be worried about before those immediate 24 hours prior to a storm is the track of the storm. If the storm center is near your area, expect lots of snow. If the storm center is further away expect less. It's not until the last 24 hours before a storm that snow totals become pretty concrete.

 

[AlphaDump]

DC is going to get fucking rocked. Time to stock up on food. Last time this happened the power went out for 3 days.

 

[Mully]

Another analysis video of the two models from this morning's run.

 

[Heavy Iron Industries]

DC area isn't going to get shit.

I've given up that we'll get another Snowmageddon here like back in the winter of 09-10.

This man knows.

It'll be a dusting of shit, or rain as usual.

 

[Culex]

Channel 8 here in CT now saying a dusting to 2 inches for Hartford.

LOL!

 

[Neuromancer]

Snow on the weekend does me no fucking good.

 

[Mully]

This man knows.

It'll be a dusting of shit, or rain as usual.

I don't think so. You guys may have mixing issues, but the trends have constantly honed in on Northern VIrginia and DC as bullseye areas for 2 days now.

 

[esms]

Local Philly news: 1 to 2 feet! Milk, bread and eggs!!

Me: Oh, so a dusting.

 

[georly]

I don't think so. You guys may have mixing issues, but the trends have constantly honed in on Northern VIrginia and DC as bullseye areas for 2 days now.

Yeah. We usually get jack shit around here, it always misses us somehow, but this has been looking pretty consinstently like 2-3 feet for the last 48 hours or so.

I'm all stocked up and ready. Have tortilla chips and queso to last me the weekend. Screw milk and bread.

 

[maquiladora]

Local Philly news: 1 to 2 feet! Milk, bread and eggs!!

Me: Oh, so a dusting.

I'd guess somewhere between 0.5 ft and 1.5 ft for there.

 

[BassForever]

Blah I was hoping we'd get blasted here in ct so I wouldn't have to work this weekend

 

[Stat Flow]

Welp, looking like we are going to get hit in Baltimore. Working from home on Friday, and staying in all weekend. I'll have to stock up on food and snacks.

 

[TarpitCarnivore]

I have a love hate relationship with snow. I'd love it a lot more if I lived in an apartment.

 

[GalacticMouse]

I have a love hate relationship with snow. I'd love it a lot more if I lived in an apartment.

You'd think that. We've had about 6" total (being generous) across two storms north of Boston and my complex is a salty, icy mess.

 

[andycapps]

You'd think that. We've had about 6" total (being generous) across two storms north of Boston and my complex is a salty, icy mess.

I think he's implying that at least you don't have to do all the snow clearing.. The apartment complex takes care of that for residents.

 

[thecouncil]

French toast must be a very popular meal for snowstorms.

 

[BronsonLee]

Local Philly news: 1 to 2 feet! Milk, bread and eggs!!

Me: Oh, so a dusting.

Hahahaha, Philly Fear has struck again

French toast must be a very popular meal for snowstorms.

Yeah can someone explain to me the need for those three items

 

[garath]

I have a love hate relationship with snow. I'd love it a lot more if I lived in an apartment.

Yeah. Owning a house and dealing with roofs, ice dams, driveways and all the associated snow cleaning tasks is pretty terrible.

That said, I did live in a condo complex as a renter one year and there were days where the offshoot streets in the complex wouldn't be cleared until well after 5. One day I came home from work to find over a foot of snow on my street. I had to park, walk through the snow to my condo, get a shovel and shovel a path for my car down the street. I lived at the end of the street too. Fortunately some neighbors sympathized and helped.

Being at the mercy of the complex cleaning things was pretty bad too.

 

[thecouncil]

Hahahaha, Philly Fear has struck again

Were you around back in 2001 when John Bolaris incorrectly predicted the "storm of the century" and our city ran him out of town with death threats after it was only 2"? I don't think we've ever recovered from that trick.

Yeah can someone explain to me the need for those three items

Milk for cereal, toast, and eggs. A complete breakfast. Or french toast. I dunno. Something to do with breakfast though.

 

[andycapps]

Yeah. Owning a house and dealing with roofs, ice dams, driveways and all the associated snow cleaning tasks is pretty terrible.

That said, I did live in a condo complex as a renter one year and there were days where the offshoot streets in the complex wouldn't be cleared until well after 5. One day I came home from work to find over a foot of snow on my street. I had to park, walk through the snow to my condo, get a shovel and shovel a path for my car down the street. I lived at the end of the street too. Fortunately some neighbors sympathized and helped.

Being at the mercy of the complex cleaning things was pretty bad too.

The city doesn't do anything for our neighborhood unless the snowfall is really high, and even then, they don't get to our streets until everything else is done. By then, people have gotten stuck or hit light poles, etc. Usually we only get 3-4 inches at a time, at the most, so the cars just compact the snow and it turns into a sheet of ice, which is always fun.

 

[e_i]

Great, there's a full moon too. And I live along the Jersey coast.

 

[Hari Seldon]

Looks like Pittsburgh dodged the bullet, but got damn DC is fucked haha.

 

[TarpitCarnivore]

I think he's implying that at least you don't have to do all the snow clearing.. The apartment complex takes care of that for residents.

Yeah it's this.

All my friends who live in cities love snow and huge storms. Living in the burbs, in a house, can be annoying as hell for huge storms. The stress of power, ice damning, flooding, etc can get to you after a few storms.

Granted being in a house is better than when I was in a townhouse, but still.

 

[JBourne]

Richmond, VA here. As cold as it has been all week, our roads are going to be trash if we get anything. I have an hour commute that includes crossing a fairly lengthy bridge, so there's no way in hell I'll be coming in if it gets bad.

Working from home is going to suck.

 

[esms]

Were you around back in 2001 when John Bolaris incorrectly predicted the "storm of the century" and our city ran him out of town with death threats after it was only 2"? I don't think we've ever recovered from that trick.

I've only been in the city 5 or so years and that story is legend.

Also, RIP John Bolaris articles.

 

[georly]

Yeah can someone explain to me the need for those three items

They're the 3 things most people buy frequently at the grocery store as they all have multiple uses and can go bad. They get consumed rather quickly (especially bread) in a household full of people who can't leave. Since you don't have the option to 'run out and get more' if you're snowed in you need to stock up.

People also overestimate how much they need/how long they'll be snowed in.

 

[Eidan]

This man knows.

It'll be a dusting of shit, or rain as usual.

I'll join the ranks of the skeptics. DC never gets shit. We're above the Hellmouth. We're going to get REALLY cold rain, and that's it. Enough to make your day miserable, but not enough to let you stay home.

 

[Dragon]

They're the 3 things most people buy frequently at the grocery store as they all have multiple uses and can go bad. They get consumed rather quickly (especially bread) in a household full of people who can't leave. Since you don't have the option to 'run out and get more' if you're snowed in you need to stock up.

People also overestimate how much they need/how long they'll be snowed in.

You can blame New England and the blizzard of '78: http://edition.cnn.com/2016/01/20/living/milk-bread-toilet-paper-snow-feat/index.html

 

[Anoregon]

NYC area totals continue to decline as newer models come out.