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Wkd BO 01•13-15•17 - Figures says Bye Bye to all comers, Affleck has a (bad) dream

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kswiston

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His comeback was The Visit in which he financed himself. So kudos. I'm sure this movie has a huge backend for him. He said lower budget is where he wants to be right now.

Blumhouse and him seem to make a very good combo.

He got ripped apart over all of his big budget stuff post-Signs, so no wonder he wants to keep a lower profile. Hopefully, M. Night has been properly humbled, because I do think that he is a decent film maker.
 
He got ripped apart over all of his big budget stuff post-Signs, so no wonder he wants to keep a lower profile. Hopefully, M. Night has been properly humbled, because I do think that he is a decent film maker.
The guy definitely has talent. Let's hope the humbling has made him hungry again.
 

Schlorgan

Member
I saw Monster Trucks with my fiance and a friend. What a weird movie. It wasn't horribly made, there was definitely a lot of talent put into it, it was just really dumb. We laughed a lot so it was definitely worth it.

I was really distracted by how much Lucas Till looked like a young Heath Ledger.

The Titanfall cameo was weird too.
 

kswiston

Member
Rth is saying $14M for Split, $7M for XXX, and $4M for Hidden Figures on Friday.

At least the Return of Xander Cage can claim a 70% first day bump over State of the Union. The power of Diesel!
 

gamz

Member
Gitesh Pandya ‏@GiteshPandya 3m3 minutes ago
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Big #1 opening on FRI for low-cost thriller #Split w/ $14.6M. Wknd may reach $34M area.
 

kswiston

Member
Friday Studio Estimates:

1) Split - $14.6M
2) XXX: Return of Xander Cage - $7.2M
3) Hidden Figures - $4.4M (-20%) - $72M total
4) La La Land - $2.2M (-41%) - $84M total
5) Sing - $1.9M (-36%) - $242M total
6) Rogue One - $1.7M (-47%) - $507M total
7) Patriot's Day - $1.6M (-61%) - $19M total
8) Monster Trucks - $1.4M (-46%) - $16M total
9) The Bye Bye Man - $1.1M (-80%) - $18M total
10) Sleepless - $1.0M (-67%) - $12M total
11) The Founder - $1.0M

xx) Live By Night - $500k (-74%) - $8m total


- The Original XXX made $17.3M day 1 in 2002.

- Big drops for all the second week holdovers. Monster Trucks is doing alright.

-Live by Night is looking at ~$11-12M for its domestic total.
 

Schlorgan

Member
Mojo has XXX's budget at $85 million so it'll probably be fine if it catches on overseas.

Edit: Holy cow, that drop on Live by Night.
 

kswiston

Member
Odds on Rogue One making it to 535 and unseating The Dark Knight?

TFA made another $68M after this point, on a $3.5M Friday. Rogue One has been having slightly worse holds every weekend since the holidays.

Based on this Friday, you'd expect another $33M for Rogue One with the exact same holds TFA got during the remainder of its run. $20-25M is probably more realistic. It will be close.
 

3N16MA

Banned
This would be the second straight financial success for Shyamalan considering the budget of his past two films. The Visit had a 5M production budget and did decent business and supposedly Split is at 10M.

That is one way to get back into a studios good graces. Low budget horror films with decent returns.
 

kswiston

Member
Yeah, I'm getting more & more skeptical it's gonna cross 530, much less 535.

Rogue One cleared the most important milestones so I doubt Disney has much interest in squeezing the last 10M or so out of it. Years ago, they would have pushed for a re-expansion on Presidents weekend, but what's the real point? They'll focus on marketing a home release around Easter instead.

R1 cleared $500M domestic, was the #1 film of the year domestically, the #2 Star Wars film to date, and will pass $1B worldwide this weekend. Mission accomplished.
 
Yup. They basically get to do whatever they want with this cinematic universe they likely have drafted up. If the first spinoff film, released less than a year after TFA, can score a top 10 all-time domestic and a bil worldwide? Greenlights away.
 
Split will end up in the top 10 January openings, and possibly as high as #4 if it plays like The Visit. Split has a higher preview percentage of its OD, but word of mouth seems a lot better, so it could happen.

For what it's worth, boxoffice .com put out a new forecast for Beauty and the Beast: $144M/$470M. :)
 

Slayven

Member
Vin Diesel loses the battle of the shaved scalps this weekend.

Who are you?
Friday Studio Estimates:

1) Split - $14.6M
2) XXX: Return of Xander Cage - $7.2M
3) Hidden Figures - $4.4M (-20%) - $72M total
4) La La Land - $2.2M (-41%) - $84M total
5) Sing - $1.9M (-36%) - $242M total
6) Rogue One - $1.7M (-47%) - $507M total
7) Patriot's Day - $1.6M (-61%) - $19M total
8) Monster Trucks - $1.4M (-46%) - $16M total
9) The Bye Bye Man - $1.1M (-80%) - $18M total
10) Sleepless - $1.0M (-67%) - $12M total
11) The Founder - $1.0M

xx) Live By Night - $500k (-74%) - $8m total


- The Original XXX made $17.3M day 1 in 2002.

- Big drops for all the second week holdovers. Monster Trucks is doing alright.

-Live by Night is looking at ~$11-12M for its domestic total.
Damn Live by night got slaughted
Vin Diesel can't carry shit.

And yet they keep trying. Chris Helmsworth is somewhere smiling
 

kswiston

Member
The Beauty and the Beast prediction seems really optimistic. If mostly accurate, that's your #2 film of the year domestic.
 
-Live by Night is looking at ~$11-12M for its domestic total.

4sYshhj.gif


Ben making that Batman movie no matter what he thinks of that script.
 

Slayven

Member
Episode 8 is out this year

Edit: Star Wars will be #1 domestic for all or most of the years between 2015 and 2019. 2018 is the only year that isnt really a certainty.
Damn i wanted it to be Guardians or Spiderman. I still got to watch Force Awakens
How does Vin Diesel keep getting work?

Outside the FF series of course.

That is what I always ask. Maybe him and Tyrese need to do a buddy cop thing
 
The Beauty and the Beast prediction seems really optimistic. If mostly accurate, that's your #2 film of the year domestic.
I think it's gonna happen, and $500M is my personal prediction atm. I'm completely over the moon about how strong its online presence has been, routinely blowing away the superhero films this year in trailer views and tweets.

What're thinking for BatB's overseas? I'm not sure if it can have the same sort of breakdown as Jungle Book or not.
 

kswiston

Member
If La La Land and Hidden Figures both clear $129M domestic, Sony will have zero films in the top 20 for 2016 releases.

Sony has only had a single film in the annual top 10 during the past 4 years (Spectre at #10 last year). In that same time frame they have had 5-6 films make the annual top 20 (depending if Ghostbusters is bumped out). So 5-6 slots out of 80. Disney had 7 in 2016 alone.

I bet that Sony studio execs are happy to have a Spider-Man film out this year!
 

Anth0ny

Member
I think Power Rangers is going to do better than we expect. Everyone I know who saw the trailer thought it looked fucking amazing.

don't under estimate 90s nostalgia. Power Rangers is as 90s nostalgia as it gets.
 

Schlorgan

Member
I think Power Rangers is going to do better than we expect. Everyone I know who saw the trailer thought it looked fucking amazing.

don't under estimate 90s nostalgia. Power Rangers is as 90s nostalgia as it gets.
Hopefully it does better than Independence Day.

Hopefully it's better than Independence Day
 
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