Graphics Horse
Member
Yep looks like Xbone has hit a critical price point. Just the AC Kinect bundle which isn't doing quite so well
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October 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes November 11th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Kinect is dead at this point, pay $100 extra is insane for most people.
The only thing I like about the Kinect is it auto-logging me in. As I have several users on my Bone, it's a great feature. Also telling it to snap and unsnap TV.
But an extra $100? GTFO. I bought the thing with the Titanfall bundle so it was pre-unbundled KInect, but I would have loved to have gotten one of this fall's non-Kinect bundles.
wanderjahr
Banned
I think XB1 will get November. Honestly, they deserve it. They've been busting their by implementing direct feedback from their customers. They've been super communicative, something I wish Sony would be better at.
As far as December? I'm curious what PlayStation Experience is going to bring to the table. Until then, all bets are off to me.
As far as December? I'm curious what PlayStation Experience is going to bring to the table. Until then, all bets are off to me.
Jimmyfenix
Member
It is hard focusing on October NPD 
No surprise, the Kinect is dead now that it doesn't come with every XBO.
The price drop by Microsoft is really quite huge. It's going to really claw back some sale difference in the US. I wonder what the financial impact will be for them though? The impression I got (could be wild speculation) was that the Xbox division needed to show more profit to stay important in the business. With all these price drops, sales and acquisitions I'd like to know how they're managing it? Not financially but politically inside the company.
I'll leave that to the experts on the matter. All I can say is the price war they're starting is seriously impressive. It's brilliant for the consumer.
I just wonder how sustainable this price drop will be for them? [Main Question]
I'll leave that to the experts on the matter. All I can say is the price war they're starting is seriously impressive. It's brilliant for the consumer.
I just wonder how sustainable this price drop will be for them? [Main Question]
Jimmyfenix
Member
MS just wants consoles out there. It could be clearing stock but they just want consoles out in their primary market. Once things stabilize they might try to go for markets like Australia and Europe (Outside UK) full force.
Talking about Australia with the Sony news earlier do we know how X1 is doing there?
Talking about Australia with the Sony news earlier do we know how X1 is doing there?
Graphics Horse
Member
I think the worst thing that could happen to them is the Xbox Live subscribers declining, there's a big risk of that if they don't get more sales out there as people aren't going to be on X360 forever.
I wouldnt bet on December going to MS, Sony might drop a bomb during their Experience event in Dec.
DarthWalden
Banned
[PS4] 280K
[XB1] 330K
[3DS] 110K
[WIU] 90K
[360] 75K
[PS3] 50K
[XB1] 330K
[3DS] 110K
[WIU] 90K
[360] 75K
[PS3] 50K
GifGafIsTheBestGaf
Member
do we have no more/less than numbers on both consoles?
Jimmyfenix
Member
Apart from the SO bundle i can see the sales in the last week of october for X1 being down because of people waiting for the price cut.
theprodigy
Member
October 2014 NPD prediction thread: Already talking about November 2014
Glorious Ownage
Member
I think so too and their pricing bundles and sales have been amazing. I think Xbox has the holiday season on lock tbh
lol that people always say. They never have any thing on lock.
Same thing as the past few months. It's just closer now.
Triggerhappytel
Member
[360] 90k
[3DS] 186k
[PS3] 55k
[PS4] 317k
[WIU] 111k
[XB1] 194k
First time doing this; honestly have little idea what NPD figures usually look like.
[3DS] 186k
[PS3] 55k
[PS4] 317k
[WIU] 111k
[XB1] 194k
First time doing this; honestly have little idea what NPD figures usually look like.
SwiftDeath
Member
Events like E3 or Gamescom have not been shown to strongly affect the sales of consoles in the months they are in. I wouldn't bet on PS Event in December at all affecting December PS4 sales
I've read your question several times and still don't quite grasp what you're asking. Would you mind rewording it?
but this is the event last guardian is going to be announced and released that same month as a christmas gift
CorporateClown
Member
[360] 60k
[3DS] 105k
[PS3] 38k
[PS4] 275k
[WIU] 70k
[XB1] 200k
[3DS] 105k
[PS3] 38k
[PS4] 275k
[WIU] 70k
[XB1] 200k
If we're patient.
joecanada
Member
Welfare
Member
Orthogonal
Member
Because for once no one is saying "next month will be interesting". It is November or bust now and MS has set expectations high with a price drop going into the "playoffs".
RealityPales
Member
I'm surprised by the amount of units most are speculating to be in favor of PS4.
Let me get this straight -
Sunset Overdrive, Forza Horizon 2 won't win October for XBO?
If so, does anyone here think Halo MCC, AC Unity and CoD Advanced Warfare will win November for XBO?
All these marketing deals and such have at least one month for XBO, right?
Let me get this straight -
Sunset Overdrive, Forza Horizon 2 won't win October for XBO?
If so, does anyone here think Halo MCC, AC Unity and CoD Advanced Warfare will win November for XBO?
All these marketing deals and such have at least one month for XBO, right?
Welfare
Member
SO Bundle was in low stock for October. FH2 was in September.
November has a lot more high profile games, 3 new bundles, and a $50 price drop. I will put Xbox One > PS4 next month.
spatenfloot
Member
Not true. If Microsoft doesn't win November NPD, then December will be very interesting.
shinra-bansho
Member
@hepburn3d I'd say it's a sustainable price point if one looks at the longer term picture and lifetime of the system and its customer base.
People need to get over the idea that their obsession about exclusives pervades into the mainstream.
The biggest brands on the market are multiplat.
And the other titles you list aren't in themselves changing November either. It's the bundling of those titles combined with a $50 price reduction.
Those titles don't in themself change expectations.
People need to get over the idea that their obsession about exclusives pervades into the mainstream.
The biggest brands on the market are multiplat.
And the other titles you list aren't in themselves changing November either. It's the bundling of those titles combined with a $50 price reduction.
i.e. make a loss now for a higher future return.
Seems like a good game plan but for some reason I thought Microsoft weren't comfortable with Xbox doing that again. I must be letting myself put too much stock in rumors.
The biggest thing in all this I think is price is king.
I'd be curious what you all think are the break down of important factors for winning each month are, on average e.g.
50% [Price] - Full 50% = Lowest Price
30% [Exclusives] - Full 30% = MCC / LB3 / MK8
10% [Friend Network] - Full 10% = All friends on 1 platform
9% [Loyalty]
1% [other]
Neither of those will be major console sellers. One is a new IP and the other is a sequel to a spinoff. Sony and Microsoft don't have a lot of system selling franchises. Halo, Gears, Uncharted, God of War, Gran Turismo etc. are the big ones for them.
November might go to XBO, it's had a very strong start thanks to all the bundles but Black Friday will probably decide the winner.
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
This is the line of thinking behind Patcher's September estimates (and he was very very wrong). I also think Microsoft will win November, but it is a combination of price, software, and bundling. But even then no more than 200K above PS4. I think friends and value perception are the two biggest factors, but being so subjective I do not think Microsoft can overcome them on price alone (otherwise WiiU would be first, right?^^)
Memorabilia
Member
This. It's all about the XBL subs.
First time doing this
[360] 70k
[3DS] 200k
[PS3] 50k
[PS4] 600k
[WIU] 50k
[XB1] 400k
Yeah we can tell.
If I were to suggest anything you should revise your PS4 and XB1 numbers (like dramatically); probably 3DS as well.
SensibleSucker
Member
First attempt. I do think Microsoft have really turned a corner and should at least "win" November, but I think they had only started building up momentum part-way through October. Also, didn't the price drop only start on 2nd November?
I do think the gap would have started to close though, so:
[360] 58k
[3DS] 102k
[PS3] 50k
[PS4] 250k
[WIU] 80k
[XB1] 230k
I do think the gap would have started to close though, so:
[360] 58k
[3DS] 102k
[PS3] 50k
[PS4] 250k
[WIU] 80k
[XB1] 230k
Pankratous
Member
Might've been mentioned already but do we even have a way this month of getting the numbers?
If there is do you think anyone is going to say anything in advance?
NPD ninjas everywhere.
More seriously tho, it's not just the data itself, it's what some posters do with it in terms if dissemination with no attempt to conceal sources and the behaviour of some people toward Aquamarine would make me think twice before hinting/leaking if I had access to the data.
It's sad but there it is - can't have nice things.
panda-zebra
Banned
[PS4] 333K
[XB1] 222K
[3DS] 111K
[WIU] 77K
[360] 55K
[PS3] 33K
[XB1] 222K
[3DS] 111K
[WIU] 77K
[360] 55K
[PS3] 33K
Triggerhappytel
Member
I think Xbone will probably beat the PS4 in November, thanks to MCC and the exclusive marketing for COD, but I think the PS4 will easily win October.
J
JoJo UK
Unconfirmed Member
[PS4] 310K
[XB1] 290K
[3DS] 95K
[WIU] 90K
[360] 70K
[PS3] 55K
First time taking a stab at this .
[XB1] 290K
[3DS] 95K
[WIU] 90K
[360] 70K
[PS3] 55K
First time taking a stab at this
.SwiftDeath
Member
Official software bundles aren't counted in the Top 10 software charts, retailer bundles are however
NPD does track sales of bundled software but it's again not included in the Top 10 software charts
GribbleGrunger
Dreams in Digital
How are we going to know if we're right?
Depends on whether the game is included in the package. So in the case of this ad, it looks like GTAV is included in the box, and TLOU isn't.
In that case, I believe TLOU would be counted and GTAV wouldn't. (However, NPD does track sales of each SKU, so somebody with access to NPD information would be able to find out specifically how much the GTA V bundle sold)
Find out next week.