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October 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes November 11th

M

mrklaw

MrArseFace
stryke said:
It feels like you're really underestimating holiday months. How is this even a question?
Click to expand...

Because it depends on the gaps between the platforms, not the absolute sales of one. Of course Xbox one November+December will be > ps4 sep+oct. I think the question was clearly meant to be whether any lead Xbox has in those two months will offset ps4's lead from sep/oct.

I.e

Will (Xbox nov + dec) - (PS4 nov + dec) > (PS4 sep + Oct) - (Xbox sep + October)?

PS4 has had a couple of strong results recently and even if Xbox wins November and December, it might be by a narrowish margin.
 
S

stryke

Member
mrklaw said:
Because it depends on the gaps between the platforms, not the absolute sales of one. Of course Xbox one November+December will be > ps4 sep+oct. I think the question was clearly meant to be whether any lead Xbox has in those two months will offset ps4's lead from sep/oct.

I.e

Will (Xbox nov + dec) - (PS4 nov + dec) > (PS4 sep + Oct) - (Xbox sep + October)?

PS4 has had a couple of strong results recently and even if Xbox wins November and December, it might be by a narrowish margin.
Click to expand...

3rdamention said:
I guess my point is, and I didn't explain myself well at all.....Both consoles will sell like crazy.... I'm talking about sale differences, not total sales...


PS4 outsold the Xbox One pretty well in September, and let's assume it outsells the One again in October. That would increase the PS4s sales gap over the One in North America....


Assuming the Xbox One outsells the PS4 in November and December...Will that difference be enough to cut into the lead that the PS4 extended in September and October? That's just what I find interesting....


If the Xbox One outsells the PS4 by 150,000 units total in November and December, will that be enough to cut into the gap the PS4 extended the previous 2 months? That would mean the Xbox One basically "won" the last 4 months of the year and can create great momentum heading into 2015...
Click to expand...

Ah I get it now.
 
3

3rdamention

Member
mrklaw said:
Because it depends on the gaps between the platforms, not the absolute sales of one. Of course Xbox one November+December will be > ps4 sep+oct. I think the question was clearly meant to be whether any lead Xbox has in those two months will offset ps4's lead from sep/oct.

I.e

Will (Xbox nov + dec) - (PS4 nov + dec) > (PS4 sep + Oct) - (Xbox sep + October)?

PS4 has had a couple of strong results recently and even if Xbox wins November and December, it might be by a narrowish margin.
Click to expand...

That was exactly my point, I admitted I didn't explain myself well and added a clarifying post and edited my original post....Xbox One could win those last 2 months, and I think it will win November...But if the sales margin isn't very big, it may not cut into the gap much at all....So those wins won't mean that much in the overall sales numbers other than we would finally get NPR numbers from Microsoft PR proving preseason has ended, and the NPD thread would be very fun...
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
Prediction thread just won't be the same without Aqua :'(

[PS4] 342K
[XB1] 287K
[WIU] 79K
[3DS] 117K
[360] 68K
[PS3] 39K
 
T

Trust me. I'm a PhD

Member
Was a little too optimistic last time, so shaving a few Ks off of my guesses this month.

[360] 59K
[3DS] 98k
[PS3] 35k
[PS4] 295k
[WIU] 61k
[XB1] 198K

PS4 will still sell a little above an average month with help by the Destiny bundle (which will be 100K or so of this months PS4 sales).
3DS had its big launch and will get another bump for Pokémon next month, but will drop a bit here.
Xbox1 will do ok for themselves, but SO will not be the unit mover Microsoft wants it to be, and they did not even make enough bundles for it to even matter as a new color SKU... the timing on the price drop (BEFORE the bundle dropped, but starting the week after) killed any sales for its debut.
Who is still buying 360 and PS3s now? Well, they will see a drop as well given their past performance.
Poor little WiiU... Old owners will love B2, but it will not draw in in anyone new...

All subject to change!^^
 
mejin

mejin

Member
We do know Microsoft is now pretty aggressive on price, free games and whatever is possible to sell Xbox Ones, but do we really have that much enthusiasm from the public to get one?

I think november and december will be great for Microsoft, but PS4 will still be on top.
 
A

allan-bh

Member
SwiftDeath said:
I give it a 75 | 25 split that MS wins November versus Sony winning November. Everything seems stacked for MS to claim November but after March and June, I can never quite tell what will happen
Click to expand...

Black Friday will be part of November NPD, so depending of the deals I think PS4 will win.

Microsoft bundles and price drop are really good, but PS4 has greater appeal naturally.
 
O

On Demand

Banned
Abdiel said:
Best Buy retail check in:

Sony and the PS4 stayed strongly in the lead through October, though that isn't to say that the XB1 was doing poorly this month. Just... the trends continue to favor the PS4. We see some customers bringing in their friends to buy the same systems as they have, and since we've had more PS4's going out the door (both the original model and the white Destiny bundle), it just ends to work in that cycle, so to speak.

SO has done better than expected (at least the game itself), but we didn't really get much in the way of stock for the bundles, or of the preorders. I'll be interested to see how it does nation wide. And when I say better than expected... our expectations were pretty low. Maybe the positive reviews helped make it more visible, and some positive impressions from employees/customers help others give it a chance. Not setting the world afire, but it's doing okay.

For Prodigy: Bayonetta 2 released to virtually no fanfare, I'm sorry to say. Wii U continues to exist in a space with the Vita, where people do come in and get them, but they are always well informed as to what they are getting. it's never an 'impulse' purchase. More like people reach their tipping point for 'justification'.
Click to expand...

Can't wait to hear the trend for November to see how much things change. If at all.

I think people saying MS has November and December are being a little overzealous imo. We don't know Sony's Holiday plans yet. I think they will definitely react to MS. A GTAV bundle would be huge for November.
 
B

Birgitte2004

Member
I think it entirely possible that the Xbox One will largely sell out, and still lose the months of Nov/Dec. If for no other reason than at this point I would not be surprised if companies were willing to order more PS4s than Xbox Ones.

After all we have a full year of PS4s selling significantly better. And the last thing most companies want is to have a massive stack of extra Xbox Ones sitting in warehouses.
 
N

NotSmartEnough

Member
An honest (possibly stupid) question:

Why is there such belief that XB1 will see a bigger seasonal spike that PS4? Is it due to SO and MCC, are there other factors?

Also, I'm very sceptical that the resident NPD experts won't make a reappearance once the results are in. However subtle and oblique the approach, I don't think they'll be able to resist.
 
S

stryke

Member
NotSmartEnough said:
An honest (possibly stupid) question:

Why is there such belief that XB1 will see a bigger seasonal spike that PS4? Is it due to SO and MCC, are there other factors?

Also, I'm very sceptical that the resident NPD experts won't make a reappearance once the results are in. However subtle and oblique the approach, I don't think they'll be able to resist.
Click to expand...

No it's not a stupid question. One factor you did forget was the pricecut. 50 might not mean much, especially throughout the year there were so many value added bundles but it is now "cheaper" in the minds of consumers and there's a price label to match it. I do think it's hard to gauge how much of a swing will happen.
 
N

Nightengale

Member
NotSmartEnough said:
An honest (possibly stupid) question:

Why is there such belief that XB1 will see a bigger seasonal spike that PS4? Is it due to SO and MCC, are there other factors?
Click to expand...

- $350
- Bundle(s)
- MCC
- CoD : AW ( yes, just as Destiny marketing helped PS4, I feel that CoD's long-term Xbox association cannot be underestimated )

Each factor will cause a spike of its own (with CoD also helping out PS4), but XB1 is concentrating as much 'spikes' as possible in November, with hope that it extends to December.

Besides, any price-drop will cause a swing.
 
T

travisbickle

Member
[360] 60K
[3DS] 100K
[PS3] 36K
[PS4] 340K
[WIU] 70K
[XB1] 190K

As for Nov/Dec, I think PS4 will have to become unpopular for XB1 to win. I don't think a price cut on MS's console makes the PS4 unpopular.
 
iceatcs

iceatcs

Junior Member
NotSmartEnough said:
An honest (possibly stupid) question:

Why is there such belief that XB1 will see a bigger seasonal spike that PS4? Is it due to SO and MCC, are there other factors?

Also, I'm very sceptical that the resident NPD experts won't make a reappearance once the results are in. However subtle and oblique the approach, I don't think they'll be able to resist.
Click to expand...

Temp official price cut and new white model can boost sale, some exclusive marketing help too.
The result might not be shown but MS will shout loud if they won Nov NPD.

PS4 will get seasonal peak but maybe not boost as xbox one. The big question is how much closer or who will win. I think Xbox one should get it Nov by very close.
Hopefully Oct NPD will be leak then it might give us some idea how it will be on Nov.
 
C

chithanh

Banned
As the most important leaks for NPD numbers are unavailable this month, how about we predict PR statements instead? :)

Sony: PS4 takes the top spot for the 10th consecutive month.
Microsoft: We remain committed to making Xbox One a great place to play this holiday.
Nintendo: A great lineup of games for Wii U began on Oct. 26, doubling sales for the week.

Anyway, my predictions:

[360] 58K
[3DS] 110K
[PS3] 39K
[PS4] 280K
[WIU] 105K
[XB1] 220K
 
M

MilesTeg

Banned
Hmm seeing as PS4 had a big September, I'm gonna guess the drop off won't be that big in October given there were a lot of software releases and we are heading into the holidays. Also gonna guess Smash gives 3DS a nice bump.

[360] 75K
[3DS] 210K
[PS3] 45K
[PS4] 425K
[WIU] 90K
[XB1] 240K
 
J

jryi

Senior Analyst, Fanboy Drivel Research Partners LLC
Man, there are a lot of SKUs.

Anywho, according to Amazon's best-sellers for October, PS4 is still going strong:

8. PS4
23. PS4 + Destiny bundle
35. Xbox One
50. Xbox One + CoD:AW (pre-order, so doesn't count)
89. Xbox One + Assassin's Creed Unity bundle
92. Nintendo WiiU Deluxe Set w/ Mario Kart

I'd put my money on PS4 taking October. November is going to be interesting... (Shit, now I said it.)
 
T

Trust me. I'm a PhD

Member
Coulomb_Barrier said:
Just reading through this thread. Why the hell is everyone's predictions so low across the board?

Isn't October ramping up to the Holiday season anymore?
Click to expand...

I can only speak for myself, but October's biggest hitters (Battlefield, Batman, Assassin's Creed, and Evolve) were all moved out of the month. Topped with it being only 4 weeks instead of 5 and Microsoft insuring that anyone who wanted an Xbox1 would just wait out that last week and I think that October will be softer to make way for a bigger November.
 
M

Miles X

Member
[PS4] 295K
[XB1] 210K
[3DS] 105K
[WIU] 65K
[360] 55K
[PS3] 28K

I think above 350k for PS4 would be a feat.

PS4 sales through September were 107k on average per week, so that's already 431k with 1 less week. But then most of those sales were obviously in Destiny week.

Maybe something like

Week 1 - 60k
Week Destiny - 200k
Week 3 - 130k
Week 4 - 110k
Week 5 - 90k

Complete guess work on my behalf, and I'm sure Destiny has raised the PS4 baseline even up till this very day, but the baseline was like 45k for PS4. Has Destiny really more than doubled the baseline, 4 - 8 weeks out?
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
test_account said:
How do you mean? What people concider was value in this regards is a highly subjective thing.
Click to expand...
Nah.

2587313-8258282847-cW6UT.jpg
Miles X said:
Complete guess work on my behalf, and I'm sure Destiny has raised the PS4 baseline even up till this very day, but the baseline was like 45k for PS4. Has Destiny really more than doubled the baseline, 4 - 8 weeks out?
Click to expand...
I should probably revise down quite a bit.

That said, I think there are seasonal effects to consider as well as the dearth of major releases during the pre-Destiny, post-Watch Dogs, portion of the year.

June basically had nothing. July's biggest release was a remaster. August had Madden, which is a big release, but occurred late in the month and we probably had some demand deferred due to the Destiny bundle in September, throughout that period.

September was obviously Destiny, but there was a smattering of other releases around it like NHL, Mordor, FIFA and Disney Infinity.

October has Alien: Isolation, Lords of the Fallen, The Evil Within and NBA2K. None of these are huge releases (although NBA2K does do good numbers, and has been growing from memory), but they're more than what's been happening through the NA Summer.
 
G

gtj1092

Member
shinra-bansho said:
Nah.

2587313-8258282847-cW6UT.jpg
I should probably revise down quite a bit.

That said, I think there are seasonal effects to consider as well as the dearth of major releases during the pre-Destiny, post-Watch Dogs, portion of the year.

June basically had nothing. July's biggest release was a remaster. August had Madden, which is a big release, but occurred late in the month and we probably had some demand deferred due to the Destiny bundle in September, throughout that period.

September was obviously Destiny, but there was a smattering of other releases around it like NHL, Mordor, FIFA and Disney Infinity.

October has Alien: Isolation, Lords of the Fallen, The Evil Within and NBA2K. None of these are huge releases (although NBA2K does do good numbers, and has been growing from memory), but they're more than what's been happening through the NA Summer.
Click to expand...

Isn't Nba2K as big as madden now. Amongst people I know it seems to have supplanted madden as the go to sports game.
 
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