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October 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes November 11th

DryvBy

DryvBy

Member
Snitch said:
[360] 67,000
[3DS] 30,000
[PS3] 20,000
[PS4] 1,000,000
[WIU] 19,000
[XB1] 95,000
Click to expand...

This is definitely the clear winner.

I suspect Sony will lose this month just because of the deals. But who knows at this point. I thought the Titanfall month would have helped the Xbox too. Edit, due to below:

[360] 65K
[PS3] 50K
[WIU] 95K
[3DS] 100K
[XB1] 180K
[PS4] 250K
 
N

Nightengale

Member
DryvBy said:
This is definitely the clear winner.

I suspect Sony will lose this month just because of the deals. But who knows at this point. I thought the Titanfall month would have helped the Xbox too.
Click to expand...

Deals started this month.

This is October prediction thread, for last month.
 
B

Blanquito

Member
Jimmyfenix said:
Hope you are enjoying yourself!
Click to expand...

Thanks!

And now, for the pseudo Amazon analysis for October, with all the caveats that that includes!

[3] SSB 3DS
[5] COD:AW XB1
[6] COD:AW PS4
[8] PS4
[9] Bayonetta WiiU
[10] Shadow of Mordor PS4
[11] MCC
[12] COD:AW 360
[15] SSB WiiU
[16] NBA 2K15 PS4
[23] PS4 + Destiny
[25] GTA5 PS4
[35] XB1
[37] The Evil Within PS4
[39] Sunset Overdrive
[40] ACUnity PS4
[42] Shadow of Mordor XB1
[50] XB1 + COD AW (Does not count towards this month's total)
[56] Hyrule Warriors
[59] Destiny PS4
[62] NBA2K15 XB1
[63] Destiny XB1
[78] ACUnity XB1
[79] GTA5 XB1
[81] FC4 PS4
[84] DA:Inquisition PS4
[89] XB1 + ACUnity (Does not count towards this month's total)

Looks like a normal month for both consoles. PS4 generally hangs around the 8th position on an average month, and with a little boost from the Destiny bundle it may be slightly up from the average (last month excluded). XB1 appears in about the same region it does on a normal month as well.
 
S

stryke

Member
Just to add, standalone X1 finally entered top 100 for the year I think around about last week in the 90s. It may have been there longer but just didn't notice.
 
A

ascii42

Member
Abdiel said:
Best Buy retail check in:

Sony and the PS4 stayed strongly in the lead through October, though that isn't to say that the XB1 was doing poorly this month. Just... the trends continue to favor the PS4. We see some customers bringing in their friends to buy the same systems as they have, and since we've had more PS4's going out the door (both the original model and the white Destiny bundle), it just ends to work in that cycle, so to speak.

SO has done better than expected (at least the game itself), but we didn't really get much in the way of stock for the bundles, or of the preorders. I'll be interested to see how it does nation wide. And when I say better than expected... our expectations were pretty low. Maybe the positive reviews helped make it more visible, and some positive impressions from employees/customers help others give it a chance. Not setting the world afire, but it's doing okay.

For Prodigy: Bayonetta 2 released to virtually no fanfare, I'm sorry to say. Wii U continues to exist in a space with the Vita, where people do come in and get them, but they are always well informed as to what they are getting. it's never an 'impulse' purchase. More like people reach their tipping point for 'justification'.
Click to expand...
Any interest in the Playstation TV? (yeah, right)
 
N

Nightengale

Member
SwiftDeath said:
Would appear so. Can't wait to see the results but alas that's not for another 5 weeks or so :
Click to expand...

I'd say one and half weeks from now should have a overall clearer picture for the month. (bar unexpected bunduru for BF)

Right now we're seeing launch upswing from bundle launches and COD launch.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
Nightengale said:
I'd say one and half weeks from now should have a overall clearer picture for the month. (bar unexpected bunduru for BF)

Right now we're seeing launch upswing from bundle launches and COD launch.
Click to expand...

Sure that's true enough. I'm kind of stumped by the SO bundles positioning and what that means for everything below it as it was routinely behind the cod bundle in pre-orders.
 
N

Nightengale

Member
allan-bh said:
Is safe to say that GTA V PS4 bundle will not be released in North America?
Click to expand...

At this stage, chances aren't high.

They'll still have their annual BF Bunduru (last year was TLoU and Batman), but like all BF Bundurus, we don't find out what's on offer until close to the date itself.
 
Coulomb_Barrier

Coulomb_Barrier

Member
shinra-bansho said:
Hmm, looks like the deal is working pretty well. Several separate SKUs above the PS4 SKU.
There's usually Black Friday PR.
Click to expand...

This is to be expected though, isn't it? The Bone price-cut landed on Nov 2nd, plus COD released a few days ago. Obviously that just shows 5 days of the month but it is surprising how high up all those Xbone bundles are comparatively.
 
C

Chris1

Member
stryke said:
With this kind of response I think it's pretty obvious this is a permanent cut.
Click to expand...

Yeah they'll probably release a 1tb hard drive for $400 then drop the 500gb down to $350 next year.

The price cut is doing extremely well for them, would be silly to put the price back up.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
shinra-bansho said:
There's usually Black Friday PR.
Click to expand...

Ah didn't think about that. Hope it's specific then

N.Domixis said:
looks like the bundles are dropping below ps4, Cod bundle is now below and the other xobx bundle is dropping while ps4 is now rising a bit.
Click to expand...

I don't see that. I see

#6 - Sunset Overdrive XB1 Bundle
#8 - AC Unity Kinectless XB1 Bundle
#11 - COD 1TB SE XB1 Bundle
#25 - PS4 Standard
#34 - XB1 Standard Kinectless
#40 - AC Unity Kinect XB1 Bundle
#61 - Destiny PS4 Bundle
 
O

On Demand

Banned
Nightengale said:
I'd say one and half weeks from now should have a overall clearer picture for the month. (bar unexpected bunduru for BF)

Right now we're seeing launch upswing from bundle launches and COD launch.
Click to expand...

Yeah i expect the spike to normalise by next week. Just like the $399 price drop did. By that time GTAV5 ( a bundle hopefully) and FC4 marketing will start and PS4 sales will pick up more. That with whatever black friday sales Sony going to do and i can honestly still see PS4 winning November.
 
S

stryke

Member
SwiftDeath said:
I don't see that. I see

#6 - Sunset Overdrive XB1 Bundle
#8 - AC Unity Kinectless XB1 Bundle
#11 - COD 1TB SE XB1 Bundle
#25 - PS4 Standard
#34 - XB1 Standard Kinectless
#40 - AC Unity Kinect XB1 Bundle
#61 - Destiny PS4 Bundle
Click to expand...

He's looking at hourly.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
stryke said:
He's looking at hourly.
Click to expand...

Oh that makes sense then. Yeah this time next week the bundles should start settling better I think and we can get a better picture of the month so far. MS is very heavy in the beginning of the month [COD, Halo MCC, AC: Unity] whereas Sony is heaviest at the end of the month [Far Cry 4, GTAV] albeit I still think MS has the advantage but we'll see
 
J

JinjoUnchained

Member
FWIW, Bayonetta 2 was sold out at my local Best Buy on launch day. I can't recall that ever happening for a Wii U game before. And no it wasn't due to a small order, they said that they received plenty of copies.

Here's hoping it at least cracks the top 10.
 
Cornbread78

Cornbread78

Member
Ps4 will win Oct., but XB1 is flying off shelves at the store right now most sales since holiday 2013 by far. MS's "NPD" sale is working right now..
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
Cornbread78 said:
Ps4 will win Oct., but XB1 is flying off shelves at the store right now most sales since holiday 2013 by far. MS's "NPD" sale is working right now..
Click to expand...

So like I think XB1 will win November and December but you do realize that even if the promotion wasn't happening, holiday 2014 sales would be the best since holiday 2013 right? November and December are the biggest months for console sales every year
 
S

stryke

Member
Here's a hack job of listing new releases for the month. I grabbed the list from Gameinformer and culled digital only titles. I'm too lazy to collate pretty pictures that Aqua did every month. Hopefully someone with more time than me can emulate what she did.

iIfeg3rReHhHs.png
 
M

Miles X

Member
SwiftDeath said:
So like I think XB1 will win November and December but you do realize that even if the promotion wasn't happening, holiday 2014 sales would be the best since holiday 2013 right? November and December are the biggest months for console sales every year
Click to expand...

Yet even with these bundles I still hear people on the net say XB1 will be lucky to get 600k.
 
G

gtj1092

Member
Miles X said:
Yet even with these bundles I still hear people on the net say XB1 will be lucky to get 600k.
Click to expand...


Not to single you out but the "people say 'x' on the net" retort is so silly. You can find someone that says anything on the net. I'm sure there are just as many people that say it is going to sell millions.
 
C

Cheech

Member
Anecdotally, the Bone has been blowing the doors off where I live. Stock is turning over continuously, and I know tons of kids getting them for Christmas.

This is personally disappointing to me, as this means my kids want the Bone versions of games to play with their buddies while my sad PS4 sits there untouched.

Next gen, Microsoft better step up with a stronger system. I want parity, dammit.

That said, the more of this stuff Sony and Microsoft sell, the better for all of us. I had some real concerns going into this generation that this was going to be The End for console gaming.

[PS4] 290k
[XB1] 250k
[3DS] 90k
[WIU] 40k
[360] 50k
[PS3] 35k
 
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