ChronotriggerJM
Member
I'm so disappointed that I'm not in the know regarding this hindle fellow.
Sold through? Mind showing your work on that one?
Xbox One in 2013 = 3,000,000 sold / 3,900,000 shipped
Ratio between US and ROTW sold (12 (this number includes the rest of the countries that the Xbox One launched in)) = 1,817,000 : 1,183,000 (65:35)
Then the sold-through has most likely hit 10M by the end of December. 8.3-8.5M actual sold-through at the time of the early Dec. announcement, according to sources.
Xbox One in Q1 2014 = ??? sold/5,100,000 shipped
Ratio between US and ROTW sold (12) = 710,000:???
Xbox One in Q1 2014 = 4,014,000 - 4,092,000 sold/5,100,000 shipped
Ratio between US and ROTW sold (12) = 710,000:382,000 (65:35) - 710,000:304,000 (70:30)
Xbox One in Q2 2014 = 4,533,000 - 4,691,000 /??? shipped
Ratio between US and ROTW sold (12) = 389,000:130,000 (75:25) - 389,000:210,000 (65:35)
Xbox One in Q3 2014 = 5,491,000 - 5,737,000 sold/??? shipped
Ratio between US and ROTW sold (41) = 575,000:383,000 (60:40) - 575,000:471,000 (55:45)
Xbox One in Q4 (2/3) 2014 = 7,821,000 - 8,279,000 sold/??? shipped
Ratio between US and ROTW sold (41) = 1,398,000:932,000 (60:40) - 1,398,000:1,144,000 (55:45)
Xbox One in December 2014 = 2,236,000 sold
Ratio between US and ROTW sold (41) = 1,230,000:1,006,000 (55:45)
I do appreciate the effort, and I'm sorry, but I really wasn't able to follow most of that. =/Fuck it, I'm going to do this.
As I've pointed out before, I don't know that we can take that number as gospel. First, it doesn't seem to fit with the known sell-through outside of the US, or likely channel inventory headed in to Christmas, and since Bish's source is completely anonymous with zero accountability, we can't even make an Appeal to Authority. I've zero doubt that Bish repeated the figure accurately and in good faith, but I also have zero idea of where it actually came from.Below will all be assumptions, but will be backed up by what Bish sources said (8.3m-8.5)
Xbox One in Q1 2014 = 4,014,000 - 4,092,000 sold/5,100,000 shipped
Ratio between US and ROTW sold (12) = 710,000:382,000 (65:35) - 710,000:304,000 (70:30)
I do appreciate the effort, and I'm sorry, but I really wasn't able to follow most of that. =/
First, your basic methodology of "Let's assume X% of US sales" seems akin to Art's "Let's assume XBone gets 1% of China." I don't think either is particularly robust.
As I've pointed out before, I don't know that we can take that number as gospel. First, it doesn't seem to fit with the known sell-through outside of the US, or likely channel inventory headed in to Christmas, and since Bish's source is completely anonymous with zero accountability, we can't even make an Appeal to Authority. I've zero doubt that Bish repeated the figure accurately and in good faith, but I also have zero idea of where it actually came from.
Moving on, I'm not understanding where you're getting some of your numbers. For example, here:
So you're saying that their sold-through at the end of March was 4M-4.1M, and lagging their shipments by 1M-1.1M? Where did you come up with that figure? MS themselves told us they were over-shipped as of March, so how do you know their sell-through wasn't 3.5M at that point? 1.5M unsold units seems more likely to trigger the "channel inventory drawdown" they warned about than 1M unsold units would be. 1M units doesn't seem particularly excessive unless the sales rate had dropped considerably.Code:Xbox One in Q1 2014 = 4,014,000 - 4,092,000 sold/5,100,000 shipped Ratio between US and ROTW sold (12) = 710,000:382,000 (65:35) - 710,000:304,000 (70:30)
Is your figure based on the reasoning, "Anything less than 4M sold through would mean their non-US sales completely tanked in the first quarter"? Since all indications are that's precisely what happened, then why are we working from the assumption that they didn't? =/
Also, you say
" from here on, I will also show the numbers if the ratio remained the same form 2013 "
but you don't seem to actually do that. On the contrary, by the end you have the ratio as high as 55:45, which would indicate a massive surge in non-US demand, but again, I haven't seen anything to indicate that took place. Just the opposite, in fact; German retailers are now digging in to their own pockets just to be rid of the thing.
So yeah, I'm not really understanding how you came up with these numbers. They seem to be largely faith-based. =/
Oh, and what does "(12)" mean, and why did it suddenly change to "(41)"? I'm so confused.
Well, no, I don't think it's feasible. That's why I asked someone to break it down for me, but I was unable to really follow his explanation.I couldn't follow it either but he concludes by saying they sold 10.5 million xbones which is feasible yeah?
Does anyone know if Sony is having a playstation meeting before E3 this year?
I still don't get why Sony postponed the China launch.
What gives there?
This is a huge opportunity for Sony.
I still don't get why Sony postponed the China launch.
What gives there?
This is a huge opportunity for Sony.
I apologize for this.I do appreciate the effort, and I'm sorry, but I really wasn't able to follow most of that. =/
We know thanks to NPD and Microsoft's PR that the sales for the console in 2013 was 1,817,000 in the US and 3,000,000 worldwide, leaving 1,187,000 for the other 12 countries, or about a 65:35 ratio between US sales and ROTW. I was assuming that the ratio between those 2 would remain somewhat consistent, hence a range of numbers.First, your basic methodology of "Let's assume X% of US sales" seems akin to Art's "Let's assume XBone gets 1% of China." I don't think either is particularly robust.
Fair enough.As I've pointed out before, I don't know that we can take that number as gospel. First, it doesn't seem to fit with the known sell-through outside of the US, or likely channel inventory headed in to Christmas, and since Bish's source is completely anonymous with zero accountability, we can't even make an Appeal to Authority. I've zero doubt that Bish repeated the figure accurately and in good faith, but I also have zero idea of where it actually came from.
At that time, in Q1 of 2014, having 1 million or above on shelves when you are in the slowest months in the year, in my opinion, would have MS not wanting to ship more, as retailers wouldn't take the units.Moving on, I'm not understanding where you're getting some of your numbers. For example, here:
So you're saying that their sold-through at the end of March was 4M-4.1M, and lagging their shipments by 1M-1.1M? Where did you come up with that figure? MS themselves told us they were over-shipped as of March, so how do you know their sell-through wasn't 3.5M at that point? 1.5M unsold units seems more likely to trigger the "channel inventory drawdown" they warned about than 1M unsold units would be. 1M units doesn't seem particularly excessive unless the sales rate had dropped to very low levels.Code:Xbox One in Q1 2014 = 4,014,000 - 4,092,000 sold/5,100,000 shipped Ratio between US and ROTW sold (12) = 710,000:382,000 (65:35) - 710,000:304,000 (70:30)
They could've been under 4 million by the end of March, but I think the safer answer would be slightly above 4 million.Is your figure based on the reasoning, "Anything less than 4M sold through would mean their non-US sales completely tanked in the first quarter"? Since all indications are that's precisely what happened, then why are we working from the assumption that they didn't? =/
I actually pointed this out.Also, you say…
"… from here on, I will also show the numbers if the ratio remained the same form 2013 …"
… but you don't seem to actually do that. On the contrary, by the end you have the ratio as high as 55:45, which would indicate a massive surge in non-US demand, but again, I haven't seen anything to indicate that took place. Just the opposite, in fact; German retailers are now digging in to their own pockets just to be rid of the thing.
And in response to the bold, wasn't that after Christmas/December? That would indicate either stuffing the channels or huge drop off in post-christmas sales.In Q3, sales improved thanks to launching in 29 more countries and the effects of the Kinect purge of 2014. In terms of ratios, I would say that the ratio for ROTW grew a massive amount, to where it is between 55:45 (US:ROTW) and 60:40 (US:ROTW)
If they were based on faith, I would have put 13 million sold through and 15 million shippedSo yeah, I'm not really understanding how you came up with these numbers. They seem to be largely faith-based. =/
Countries in the ROTW. Again, sorry.Oh, and what does "(12)" mean, and why did it suddenly change to "(41)"? I'm so confused.
Why are you assuming the sales ratio of Q4 is the same as Q3? The launch on these 29 countries will be front loaded, and in US, XBO had very good deals that didn't happen in any other country so; the ration should be actually higher in favor of US.And now the promised land. Q4. The sales ratio should basically be the same in this Q, so just to plug in some numbers. Only problem is that we don't know December NPD (But we will in 4 days), so this is Q4 2/3.
Code:Xbox One in Q4 (2/3) 2014 = 7,821,000 - 8,279,000 sold/??? shipped Ratio between US and ROTW sold (41) = 1,398,000:932,000 (60:40) - 1,398,000:1,144,000 (55:45)
Well then. The max number with this is basically 8,300,000. This falls in line with what Bish has already said of what the number range was in early December.
Now the big milestone, 10 million. This is doable, as in order for the Xbox One to even reach 8.3 million, the ratio needs to be close to 55:45, and i don't see this changing in December. Now then, like I said, we don't know December NPD, so this is assuming, but for this, I'll assume it is 100% flat from November.
Code:Xbox One in December 2014 = 2,236,000 sold Ratio between US and ROTW sold (41) = 1,230,000:1,006,000 (55:45)
2,236,000 + 8,279,000 = 10,515,000 sold to consumers by the end of 2014.
Fuck I'm done with this discussion.
I'm so disappointed that I'm not in the know regarding this hindle fellow.
Actually you're better off.
Why are assuming the sales ratio of Q4 is the same as Q3? The launch on these 29 countries will be front loaded and in US, XBO had very good deals that didn't happen in any other country so; the ration actualy should be higher in favor of US.
Just to be sure, does it contain another S anywhere between A and S?
LOL but he/she sounded like a riot. Anyone remember a high point?
Yeah, Hindle deserved it for his antagonistic approach. Artisan hasn't gone anywhere near Hindle's level.
Maybe, but Christmas in other countries would probably keep it similar. Either way, assuming a 60:40 ratio using 1.23m for the US, it would still be over 10 million and using 65:35 would still get you over 10 million. Also if the ratio was 70:30, still over 10 million. 75:25, only slightly below 10 million
Just saying, the Xbox One being over 10 million is all but confirmed unless sales really fell in December for some reason.
Playstation Meeting was so far used only for unveils of new hardware. We got one in 2011 [NGP] and one in 2013 [PS4].
We did not get one in 2014, so I don't expect one to be organized in near future. Maybe in 2018/2019 for PS5. As usual Sony will be a part of GDC in March. You can expect maybe small conference [in 2013 they unveiled Morpheus in 1hr event] and lots of developer sessions.
I'm actually one of the believers of XBO being +10 million, I'm only arguing about the ratios, which I believe will continue to be 60:40 or higher in favor of US.
This might sound like a dumb question, but does this mean we might see more exclusives for the PS4? Does this give Sony more leverage to do stuff like that? Like with negotiating with developers or building new studios of their own?
So we will only ever know how much MS shipped from their quarterly report and never have an actual sell through number.
And with Sony we will never know shipped numbers but only sell through numbers until MS' shipped numbers start outpacing Sony's sell through numbers, where Sony will start stating shipped numbers with their quarterly reports.
And then we will never know either sides sell through numbers until someone's sell through numbers are higher than the other's shipped numbers again.
No worries. Thanks for taking the time to explain it.I apologize for this.
See, I don't think that's a safe assumption at all, especially given what we do know about post-launch, non-US demand. I think we're better off trying to work the problem from the other direction; first figure out what their non-US sales actually are (or are likely to be), and then you can calculate the US:ROTW ratio after that if you want.We know thanks to NPD and Microsoft's PR that the sales for the console in 2013 was 1,817,000 in the US and 3,000,000 worldwide, leaving 1,187,000 for the other 12 countries, or about a 65:35 ratio between US sales and ROTW. I was assuming that the ratio between those 2 would remain somewhat consistent, hence a range of numbers.
I don't think 1M unsold coming out of Q1 is outside the norm at all. Can you provide any examples? If 1M going in to April is overstocked, then why isn't 900K going in to January? They weren't talking drawdown after Q4, after all.At that time, in Q1 of 2014, having 1 million or above on shelves when you are in the slowest months in the year, in my opinion, would have MS not wanting to ship more, as retailers wouldn't take the units.
You pointed out German retailers were selling it at a loss to be rid of it? I guess I missed that, sorry. Oh, or did you mean you pointed out it represented a huge increase in demand relative to the demand in the US? If so, then again, what evidence do you have to support such an assumption? One would think that if anything, it got worse, since they didn't even bother discounting it outside of the US/UK for the holidays. That alone seems like it would shift the balance even further in to the US.I actually pointed this out.
Well, the story ran on the 10th. The Saturn manager indicated XBone "just wasn't selling" (author's words), but didn't really give a time frame on that. That said, I don't really know how retail normally works in Germany, but it seems unlikely he'd be ready to cut bait after just a week of slow sales. Especially not to the tune of taking a 70 loss per unit. MediaMarkt indicated they also had "slow sales" of the Bone, and while they said sales picked up temporarily at Christmas, that in itself would seem to indicate it's been an issue for them for some time now.And in response to the bold, wasn't that after Christmas/December? That would indicate either stuffing the channels or huge drop off in post-christmas sales.
lol <3If they were based on faith, I would have put 13 million sold through and 15 million shipped
Ohhhh!Countries in the ROTW. Again, sorry.
I'm actually one of the believers of XBO being +10 million, I'm only arguing about the ratios, which I believe will continue to be 60:40 or higher in favor of US.
Ah.
Seriously, when is that Knack avatar going away?
So we will only ever know how much MS shipped from their quarterly report and never have an actual sell through number.
And with Sony we will never know shipped numbers but only sell through numbers until MS' shipped numbers start outpacing Sony's sell through numbers, where Sony will start stating shipped numbers with their quarterly reports.
And then we will never know either sides sell through numbers until someone's sell through numbers are higher than the other's shipped numbers again.
1) ps4 ltd shipped (2013-12-31) - 4.5 million
2) ps4 ltd shipped (2014-03-31) - 7.5 million
3) ps4 ltd shipped (2014-06-30) - 10.2 million
4) ps4 ltd shipped (2014-09-30) - 13.5 million
5) ps4 ltd sell-through (2015-01-04) - 18.5 million
At best they only did 644k from July-Sept. and they launched in they're tier 2 countries. So I'm predicting a 1.5M shipping from the Q3 2014. At best we're looking at a 7.3M before Q4 and this is a shipped number not sold through.serversurfer said:Well, no, I don't think it's feasible. That's why I asked someone to break it down for me, but I was unable to really follow his explanation.
Nightengale said:Sony reveals their shipment numbers every quarter as part of their quarterlies.
Next month, we'll get PS4 shipped figures as part of Q3 closing.
I'm actually one of the believers of XBO being +10 million, I'm only arguing about the ratios, which I believe will continue to be 60:40 or higher in favor of US.
Well, no, I don't think it's feasible. That's why I asked someone to break it down for me, but I was unable to really follow his explanation.
Great.April 1st.
Yes, this would be better, but unless someone wants to leak some gfk data, it's all just guesses.See, I don't think that's a safe assumption at all, especially given what we do know about post-launch, non-US demand. I think we're better off trying to work the problem from the other direction; first figure out what their non-US sales actually are (or are likely to be), and then you can calculate the US:ROTW ratio after that if you want.
Microsoft could've thought that the Xbox One was actually going to sell better than it actually did in Q1, so they wouldn't need to slow the shipments then.I don't think 1M unsold coming out of Q1 is outside the norm at all. Can you provide any examples? If 1M going in to April is overstocked, then why isn't 900K going in to January? They weren't talking drawdown after Q4, after all.
Nope.You pointed out German retailers were selling it at a loss to be rid of it? I guess I missed that, sorry.
They knew that the only chance for winning a month would be in the US and the UK. That doesn't mean other countries aren't selling badly, just that sales were close enough in others for a "victory".Oh, or did you mean you pointed out it represented a huge increase in demand relative to the demand in the US? If so, then again, what evidence do you have to support such an assumption? One would think that if anything, it got worse, since they didn't even bother discounting it outside of the US/UK for the holidays. That alone seems like it would shift the balance even further in to the US.
Additional countries = additional sales. Sales don't need to quadruple in 13 original countries, as there are additional sales from the other 29 countries that the Xbox One launched in 2014.Let's say the big sale doubled their weekly demand in the US. You're suggesting that the lack of a big sale caused demand to quadruple in Germany, France, Spain, etc.? =/
I have nothing to say here.Well, the story ran on the 10th. The Saturn manager indicated XBone "just wasn't selling" (author's words), but didn't really give a time frame on that. That said, I don't really know how retail normally works in Germany, but it seems unlikely he'd be ready to cut bait after just a week of slow sales. Especially not to the tune of taking a €70 loss per unit. MediaMarkt indicated they also had "slow sales" of the Bone, and while they said sales picked up temporarily at Christmas, that in itself would seem to indicate it's been an issue for them for some time now.
Sales in Q3 would be better thanks to the Kinect disconnect.Oh, and I forgot to mention this before, regarding your statement, "In Q3, sales improved thanks to launching in 29 more countries and the effects of the Kinect purge of 2014." First, Kinect was actually dropped in June after a May announcement, which is Q2, not Q3.
115k -> 77k -> 197k -> 131k -> 160k (April - May - June - July - August)More to the point, I've heard several people talk about increased sales following the disKinect, but is there any evidence of that whatsoever? IIRC from NPD, their sales tanked when they made the announcement in May, and sure enough, their May->June sales doubled, but didn't that take them right back to the same levels they had in April? Wasn't it something like 140k->70k->140k? That would seem to indicate that a lot of the people who'd been buying the Bone up to that point didn't actually want the Kinect that came with it, but it also seems to indicate its removal did little to increase the overall appeal of the system. So where exactly did this idea come from?
It means we're in the Cool Kids Club. 8)You know what I can't really follow!?!That everyone is Knacked
At best they only did 644k from July-Sept. and they launched in they're tier 2 countries. So I'm predicting a 1.5M shipping from the Q3 2014. At best we're looking at a 7.3M before Q4 and this is a shipped number not sold through.
Well, we have had leaks, and those leaks are precisely the reason I think your "more or less the same ratio at first, with non-US sales exploding near the end" methodology is flawed.Yes, this would be better, but unless someone wants to leak some gfk data, it's all just guesses.
But wouldn't that seem to support my assertion that their post-launch sales really tanked? =/Microsoft could've thought that the Xbox One was actually going to sell better than it actually did in Q1, so they wouldn't need to slow the shipments then.
Well, yes, that explains why they didn't bother, but it doesn't explain why you think they experienced such a massive surge in countries that (seemingly) by Microsoft's own estimates weren't even worth bothering with. =/They knew that the only chance for winning a month would be in the US and the UK. That doesn't mean other countries aren't selling badly, just that sales were close enough in others for a "victory".
That's another thing. You're attributing a significant bump to Tier 2, but you need to remember why those countries are considered Tier 2 in the first place; because they're hardly worth bothering with for MS.Additional countries = additional sales. Sales don't need to quadruple in 13 original countries, as there are additional sales from the other 29 countries that the Xbox One launched in 2014.
Thanks for the numbers. I'm seeing some sales shifted from May in to June, but I'm not really seeing any sustained increase in demand in the months that follow. They were gifting Madden in August, weren't they?Sales in Q3 would be better thanks to the Kinect disconnect.
115k -> 77k -> 197k -> 131k -> 160k (April - May - June - July - August)
That time he got banned?LOL but he/she sounded like a riot. Anyone remember a high point?
More to the point, I've heard several people talk about increased sales following the disKinect, but is there any evidence of that whatsoever? IIRC from NPD, their sales tanked when they made the announcement in May, and sure enough, their May->June sales doubled, but didn't that take them right back to the same levels they had in April? Wasn't it something like 140k->70k->140k? That would seem to indicate that a lot of the people who'd been buying the Bone up to that point didn't actually want the Kinect that came with it, but it also seems to indicate its removal did little to increase the overall appeal of the system. So where exactly did this idea come from?
115k -> 77k -> 197k -> 131k -> 160k (April - May - June - July - August)
Thanks for the numbers. I'm seeing some sales shifted from May in to June, but I'm not really seeing any sustained increase in demand in the months that follow. They were gifting Madden in August, weren't they?
Yep. It's all COD here which is ironic considering Grimsby is a fishing port ...
Grimsby is grim. I'm from Lincolnshire but the other end - Boston. Which is also grim.
...anyway...
Welfare said:115k -> 77k -> 197k -> 131k -> 160k (April - May - June - July - August)
LOL but he/she sounded like a riot. Anyone remember a high point?
Wait. Microsoft said they only doubled May's sales for the month. You have them nearly tripling that for the month of June. by over 40k. But that's irrelevant since they announced July that the combined shipments for Xbox One and Xbox 360 were 1.1M. again we don't know the split but some say that they shipped like 800k Xbox Ones. So as of June 30th Xbox One's shipped 5.8M July- Sept Q3 is probably 1.5M shipped. They would place Xbox One @ 7.3M shipped as of September 31st. They would need to ship 2.7M to be reach 10M shipped I don't think they managed this before Dec 3. like you want to believe when Natella said they hit 10M before NPD was released.
Wait. Microsoft said they only doubled May's sales for the month. You have them nearly tripling that for the month of June. by over 40k.
remember that june 2014 was a five-week month.
so if we were to normalize the sales, it would be as follows:
115 -> 77 -> 158 -> 131 -> 160
Where would the demand come from though? Besides America and the UK.When you normalize the month of June from 5 weeks to 4 weeks, it is 158k.
I also don't see MS shipping less than 3 million last Q, as they shipped 3.9 million at launch. If anything MS are going to try to ship at least that if not more.
didn't you see my post?
microsoft was normalising sales, as you should because of the tracking period discrepancies.
just using a straight 77k -> 197k comparison is fundamentally misleading.
LOL but he/she sounded like a riot. Anyone remember a high point?