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[ChronotriggerJM]

I'm so disappointed that I'm not in the know regarding this hindle fellow.

 

[Welfare]

Sold through? Mind showing your work on that one?

Fuck it, I'm going to do this. What is public knowledge:

Xbox One in 2013 = 3,000,000 sold / 3,900,000 shipped 
Ratio between US and ROTW sold (12 (this number includes the rest of the countries that the Xbox One launched in)) = 1,817,000 : 1,183,000 (65:35)

Below will all be assumptions, but will be backed up by what Bish sources said (8.3m-8.5)

Then the sold-through has most likely hit 10M by the end of December. 8.3-8.5M actual sold-through at the time of the early Dec. announcement, according to sources.

Xbox One in Q1 2014 = ??? sold/5,100,000 shipped
Ratio between US and ROTW sold (12) = 710,000:???

Now then, sales did fall in the other countries at this point, so the ratio would only grow in the US's favor. How much so can't be said, but for this, I'll go with a max of 70:30, but from here on, I will also show the numbers if the ratio remained the same form 2013, and represent the range by xxx - xxx.

Xbox One in Q1 2014 = 4,014,000 - 4,092,000 sold/5,100,000 shipped
Ratio between US and ROTW sold (12) = 710,000:382,000 (65:35) - 710,000:304,000 (70:30)

We do know that Microsoft slowed shipments of the Xbox One in Q2, and with the current math I just did, it makes sense. The gap between Sold and Shipped grew to over 1,000,000, almost reaching 1,100,000 on the lowest end.

Now Q2 was a huge drop in sales thanks to April and May. In this Q, the US sold almost half of what it sold last Q. In terms of ROTW, I would say the ratio between it and the US could've grown to a max of 75:25.

Xbox One in Q2 2014 = 4,533,000 - 4,691,000 /??? shipped
Ratio between US and ROTW sold (12) = 389,000:130,000 (75:25) - 389,000:210,000 (65:35)

In Q3, sales improved thanks to launching in 29 more countries and the effects of the Kinect purge of 2014. In terms of ratios, I would say that the ratio for ROTW grew a massive amount, to where it is between 55:45 (US:ROTW) and 60:40 (US:ROTW)

Xbox One in Q3 2014 = 5,491,000 - 5,737,000 sold/??? shipped
Ratio between US and ROTW sold (41) = 575,000:383,000 (60:40) - 575,000:471,000 (55:45)

And now the promised land. Q4. The sales ratio should basically be the same in this Q, so just to plug in some numbers. Only problem is that we don't know December NPD (But we will in 4 days), so this is Q4 2/3.

Xbox One in Q4 (2/3) 2014 = 7,821,000 - 8,279,000 sold/??? shipped
Ratio between US and ROTW sold (41) = 1,398,000:932,000 (60:40) - 1,398,000:1,144,000 (55:45)

Well then. The max number with this is basically 8,300,000. This falls in line with what Bish has already said of what the number range was in early December.

Now the big milestone, 10 million. This is doable, as in order for the Xbox One to even reach 8.3 million, the ratio needs to be close to 55:45, and i don't see this changing in December. Now then, like I said, we don't know December NPD, so this is assuming, but for this, I'll assume it is 100% flat from November.

Xbox One in December 2014 = 2,236,000 sold
Ratio between US and ROTW sold (41) = 1,230,000:1,006,000 (55:45)

2,236,000 + 8,279,000 = 10,515,000 sold to consumers by the end of 2014.

Fuck I'm done with this discussion.

 

[serversurfer]

Fuck it, I'm going to do this.

I do appreciate the effort, and I'm sorry, but I really wasn't able to follow most of that. =/

First, your basic methodology of "Let's assume X% of US sales" seems akin to Art's "Let's assume XBone gets 1% of China." I don't think either is particularly robust.

Below will all be assumptions, but will be backed up by what Bish sources said (8.3m-8.5)

As I've pointed out before, I don't know that we can take that number as gospel. First, it doesn't seem to fit with the known sell-through outside of the US, or likely channel inventory headed in to Christmas, and since Bish's source is completely anonymous with zero accountability, we can't even make an Appeal to Authority. I've zero doubt that Bish repeated the figure accurately and in good faith, but I also have zero idea of where it actually came from.

Moving on, I'm not understanding where you're getting some of your numbers. For example, here:

Xbox One in Q1 2014 = 4,014,000 - 4,092,000 sold/5,100,000 shipped
Ratio between US and ROTW sold (12) = 710,000:382,000 (65:35) - 710,000:304,000 (70:30)

So you're saying that their sold-through at the end of March was 4M-4.1M, and lagging their shipments by 1M-1.1M? Where did you come up with that figure? MS themselves told us they were over-shipped as of March, so how do you know their sell-through wasn't 3.5M at that point? 1.5M unsold units seems more likely to trigger the "channel inventory drawdown" they warned about than 1M unsold units would be. 1M units doesn't seem particularly excessive unless the sales rate had dropped to very low levels.

Is your figure based on the reasoning, "Anything less than 4M sold through would mean their non-US sales completely tanked in the first quarter"? Since all indications are that's precisely what happened, then why are we working from the assumption that they didn't? =/

Also, you say…
"… from here on, I will also show the numbers if the ratio remained the same form 2013 …"
… but you don't seem to actually do that. On the contrary, by the end you have the ratio as high as 55:45, which would indicate a massive surge in non-US demand, but again, I haven't seen anything to indicate that took place. Just the opposite, in fact; German retailers are now digging in to their own pockets just to be rid of the thing.

So yeah, I'm not really understanding how you came up with these numbers. They seem to be largely faith-based. =/

Oh, and what does "(12)" mean, and why did it suddenly change to "(41)"? I'm so confused.

 

[The Artisan]

I do appreciate the effort, and I'm sorry, but I really wasn't able to follow most of that. =/

First, your basic methodology of "Let's assume X% of US sales" seems akin to Art's "Let's assume XBone gets 1% of China." I don't think either is particularly robust.


As I've pointed out before, I don't know that we can take that number as gospel. First, it doesn't seem to fit with the known sell-through outside of the US, or likely channel inventory headed in to Christmas, and since Bish's source is completely anonymous with zero accountability, we can't even make an Appeal to Authority. I've zero doubt that Bish repeated the figure accurately and in good faith, but I also have zero idea of where it actually came from.

Moving on, I'm not understanding where you're getting some of your numbers. For example, here:

Xbox One in Q1 2014 = 4,014,000 - 4,092,000 sold/5,100,000 shipped
Ratio between US and ROTW sold (12) = 710,000:382,000 (65:35) - 710,000:304,000 (70:30)

So you're saying that their sold-through at the end of March was 4M-4.1M, and lagging their shipments by 1M-1.1M? Where did you come up with that figure? MS themselves told us they were over-shipped as of March, so how do you know their sell-through wasn't 3.5M at that point? 1.5M unsold units seems more likely to trigger the "channel inventory drawdown" they warned about than 1M unsold units would be. 1M units doesn't seem particularly excessive unless the sales rate had dropped considerably.

Is your figure based on the reasoning, "Anything less than 4M sold through would mean their non-US sales completely tanked in the first quarter"? Since all indications are that's precisely what happened, then why are we working from the assumption that they didn't? =/

Also, you say…
"… from here on, I will also show the numbers if the ratio remained the same form 2013 …"
… but you don't seem to actually do that. On the contrary, by the end you have the ratio as high as 55:45, which would indicate a massive surge in non-US demand, but again, I haven't seen anything to indicate that took place. Just the opposite, in fact; German retailers are now digging in to their own pockets just to be rid of the thing.

So yeah, I'm not really understanding how you came up with these numbers. They seem to be largely faith-based. =/

Oh, and what does "(12)" mean, and why did it suddenly change to "(41)"? I'm so confused.

I couldn't follow it either but he concludes by saying they sold 10.5 million xbones which is feasible yeah?

 

[serversurfer]

I couldn't follow it either but he concludes by saying they sold 10.5 million xbones which is feasible yeah?

Well, no, I don't think it's feasible. That's why I asked someone to break it down for me, but I was unable to really follow his explanation.

 

[Dreadx_Jecht]

Does anyone know if Sony is having a playstation meeting before E3 this year?

 

[DieH@rd]

Does anyone know if Sony is having a playstation meeting before E3 this year?

Playstation Meeting was so far used only for unveils of new hardware. We got one in 2011 [NGP] and one in 2013 [PS4].

We did not get one in 2014, so I don't expect one to be organized in near future. Maybe in 2018/2019 for PS5. As usual Sony will be a part of GDC in March. You can expect maybe small conference [in 2013 they unveiled Morpheus in 1hr event] and lots of developer sessions.

 

[Rogue_Ledr]

I still don't get why Sony postponed the China launch.

What gives there?

This is a huge opportunity for Sony.

 

[DieH@rd]

I still don't get why Sony postponed the China launch.

What gives there?

This is a huge opportunity for Sony.

Apparently, Chinese government requested delay so that Sony could "tweak their business model".

IMO, maybe they requested that hardware and software needs to be region blocked.

 

[KillerMan91]

I still don't get why Sony postponed the China launch.

What gives there?

This is a huge opportunity for Sony.

Probably more to do chinese authorities than Sony.

 

[Welfare]

I do appreciate the effort, and I'm sorry, but I really wasn't able to follow most of that. =/

I apologize for this.

First, your basic methodology of "Let's assume X% of US sales" seems akin to Art's "Let's assume XBone gets 1% of China." I don't think either is particularly robust.

We know thanks to NPD and Microsoft's PR that the sales for the console in 2013 was 1,817,000 in the US and 3,000,000 worldwide, leaving 1,187,000 for the other 12 countries, or about a 65:35 ratio between US sales and ROTW. I was assuming that the ratio between those 2 would remain somewhat consistent, hence a range of numbers.

As I've pointed out before, I don't know that we can take that number as gospel. First, it doesn't seem to fit with the known sell-through outside of the US, or likely channel inventory headed in to Christmas, and since Bish's source is completely anonymous with zero accountability, we can't even make an Appeal to Authority. I've zero doubt that Bish repeated the figure accurately and in good faith, but I also have zero idea of where it actually came from.

Fair enough.

Moving on, I'm not understanding where you're getting some of your numbers. For example, here:

Xbox One in Q1 2014 = 4,014,000 - 4,092,000 sold/5,100,000 shipped
Ratio between US and ROTW sold (12) = 710,000:382,000 (65:35) - 710,000:304,000 (70:30)

So you're saying that their sold-through at the end of March was 4M-4.1M, and lagging their shipments by 1M-1.1M? Where did you come up with that figure? MS themselves told us they were over-shipped as of March, so how do you know their sell-through wasn't 3.5M at that point? 1.5M unsold units seems more likely to trigger the "channel inventory drawdown" they warned about than 1M unsold units would be. 1M units doesn't seem particularly excessive unless the sales rate had dropped to very low levels.

At that time, in Q1 of 2014, having 1 million or above on shelves when you are in the slowest months in the year, in my opinion, would have MS not wanting to ship more, as retailers wouldn't take the units.

Is your figure based on the reasoning, "Anything less than 4M sold through would mean their non-US sales completely tanked in the first quarter"? Since all indications are that's precisely what happened, then why are we working from the assumption that they didn't? =/

They could've been under 4 million by the end of March, but I think the safer answer would be slightly above 4 million.

Also, you say…
"… from here on, I will also show the numbers if the ratio remained the same form 2013 …"
… but you don't seem to actually do that. On the contrary, by the end you have the ratio as high as 55:45, which would indicate a massive surge in non-US demand, but again, I haven't seen anything to indicate that took place. Just the opposite, in fact; German retailers are now digging in to their own pockets just to be rid of the thing.

I actually pointed this out.

In Q3, sales improved thanks to launching in 29 more countries and the effects of the Kinect purge of 2014. In terms of ratios, I would say that the ratio for ROTW grew a massive amount, to where it is between 55:45 (US:ROTW) and 60:40 (US:ROTW)

And in response to the bold, wasn't that after Christmas/December? That would indicate either stuffing the channels or huge drop off in post-christmas sales.

So yeah, I'm not really understanding how you came up with these numbers. They seem to be largely faith-based. =/

If they were based on faith, I would have put 13 million sold through and 15 million shipped

Oh, and what does "(12)" mean, and why did it suddenly change to "(41)"? I'm so confused.

Countries in the ROTW. Again, sorry.

 

[Chobel]

And now the promised land. Q4. The sales ratio should basically be the same in this Q, so just to plug in some numbers. Only problem is that we don't know December NPD (But we will in 4 days), so this is Q4 2/3.

Xbox One in Q4 (2/3) 2014 = 7,821,000 - 8,279,000 sold/??? shipped
Ratio between US and ROTW sold (41) = 1,398,000:932,000 (60:40) - 1,398,000:1,144,000 (55:45)

Well then. The max number with this is basically 8,300,000. This falls in line with what Bish has already said of what the number range was in early December.

Now the big milestone, 10 million. This is doable, as in order for the Xbox One to even reach 8.3 million, the ratio needs to be close to 55:45, and i don't see this changing in December. Now then, like I said, we don't know December NPD, so this is assuming, but for this, I'll assume it is 100% flat from November.

Xbox One in December 2014 = 2,236,000 sold
Ratio between US and ROTW sold (41) = 1,230,000:1,006,000 (55:45)

2,236,000 + 8,279,000 = 10,515,000 sold to consumers by the end of 2014.

Fuck I'm done with this discussion.

Why are you assuming the sales ratio of Q4 is the same as Q3? The launch on these 29 countries will be front loaded, and in US, XBO had very good deals that didn't happen in any other country so; the ration should be actually higher in favor of US.

EDIT: Also in early December (I assume less than a week after November NPD) XBO should be 5.0/5.1 million in US, and the ratio 60:40 put us exactly in the range 8.3/8.5 million.

 

[GnawtyDog]

I'm so disappointed that I'm not in the know regarding this hindle fellow.

Actually you're better off.

 

[ChronotriggerJM]

Actually you're better off.

LOL but he/she sounded like a riot. Anyone remember a high point?

 

[Welfare]

Why are assuming the sales ratio of Q4 is the same as Q3? The launch on these 29 countries will be front loaded and in US, XBO had very good deals that didn't happen in any other country so; the ration actualy should be higher in favor of US.

Maybe, but Christmas in other countries would probably keep it similar. Either way, assuming a 60:40 ratio using 1.23m for the US, it would still be over 10 million and using 65:35 would still get you over 10 million. Also if the ratio was 70:30, still over 10 million. 75:25, only slightly below 10 million

Just saying, the Xbox One being over 10 million is all but confirmed unless sales really fell in December for some reason.

 

[Piggus]

Just to be sure, does it contain another S anywhere between A and S?

Yes!

 

[boredandlazy]

LOL but he/she sounded like a riot. Anyone remember a high point?

The high point was what got him banned. Basically he lashed out at bish after we all called him on his bullshit(again).

 

[Arkham]

Yeah, Hindle deserved it for his antagonistic approach. Artisan hasn't gone anywhere near Hindle's level.

I've always suspected that he's SenjutsuSage's little brother.

 

[Chobel]

Maybe, but Christmas in other countries would probably keep it similar. Either way, assuming a 60:40 ratio using 1.23m for the US, it would still be over 10 million and using 65:35 would still get you over 10 million. Also if the ratio was 70:30, still over 10 million. 75:25, only slightly below 10 million

Just saying, the Xbox One being over 10 million is all but confirmed unless sales really fell in December for some reason.

I'm actually one of the believers of XBO being +10 million, I'm only arguing about the ratios, which I believe will continue to be 60:40 or higher in favor of US.

 

[Dreadx_Jecht]

Playstation Meeting was so far used only for unveils of new hardware. We got one in 2011 [NGP] and one in 2013 [PS4].

We did not get one in 2014, so I don't expect one to be organized in near future. Maybe in 2018/2019 for PS5. As usual Sony will be a part of GDC in March. You can expect maybe small conference [in 2013 they unveiled Morpheus in 1hr event] and lots of developer sessions.

Thanks, I was wondering if we would get any new game announcements or details on games before E3.

 

[IndoAssassin]

I'm actually one of the believers of XBO being +10 million, I'm only arguing about the ratios, which I believe will continue to be 60:40 or higher in favor of US.

So we will only ever know how much MS shipped from their quarterly report and never have an actual sell through number.

And with Sony we will never know shipped numbers but only sell through numbers until MS' shipped numbers start outpacing Sony's sell through numbers, where Sony will start stating shipped numbers with their quarterly reports.

And then we will never know either sides sell through numbers until someone's sell through numbers are higher than the other's shipped numbers again.

 

[Windforce]

Just checked Amazon and it seems PS4 is back on top of X1. X1 AC bundle probably out of stock or price indeed back up again.

But I still think X1 will win December NPD.

 

[Kodiak]

This might sound like a dumb question, but does this mean we might see more exclusives for the PS4? Does this give Sony more leverage to do stuff like that? Like with negotiating with developers or building new studios of their own?

 

[IndoAssassin]

This might sound like a dumb question, but does this mean we might see more exclusives for the PS4? Does this give Sony more leverage to do stuff like that? Like with negotiating with developers or building new studios of their own?

No, I believe it will cost less for Sony to do it than it would cost MS. But considering both sides financial situation, it would cost Sony just as much or more financially as a company than it would for MS eventhough it would cost less.

 

[stryke]

So we will only ever know how much MS shipped from their quarterly report and never have an actual sell through number.

And with Sony we will never know shipped numbers but only sell through numbers until MS' shipped numbers start outpacing Sony's sell through numbers, where Sony will start stating shipped numbers with their quarterly reports.

And then we will never know either sides sell through numbers until someone's sell through numbers are higher than the other's shipped numbers again.

Of course we know PS4 shipped numbers. They have been giving them out every quarter.

 

[serversurfer]

I apologize for this.

No worries. Thanks for taking the time to explain it.

We know thanks to NPD and Microsoft's PR that the sales for the console in 2013 was 1,817,000 in the US and 3,000,000 worldwide, leaving 1,187,000 for the other 12 countries, or about a 65:35 ratio between US sales and ROTW. I was assuming that the ratio between those 2 would remain somewhat consistent, hence a range of numbers.

See, I don't think that's a safe assumption at all, especially given what we do know about post-launch, non-US demand. I think we're better off trying to work the problem from the other direction; first figure out what their non-US sales actually are (or are likely to be), and then you can calculate the US:ROTW ratio after that if you want.

At that time, in Q1 of 2014, having 1 million or above on shelves when you are in the slowest months in the year, in my opinion, would have MS not wanting to ship more, as retailers wouldn't take the units.

I don't think 1M unsold coming out of Q1 is outside the norm at all. Can you provide any examples? If 1M going in to April is overstocked, then why isn't 900K going in to January? They weren't talking drawdown after Q4, after all.

I actually pointed this out.

You pointed out German retailers were selling it at a loss to be rid of it? I guess I missed that, sorry. Oh, or did you mean you pointed out it represented a huge increase in demand relative to the demand in the US? If so, then again, what evidence do you have to support such an assumption? One would think that if anything, it got worse, since they didn't even bother discounting it outside of the US/UK for the holidays. That alone seems like it would shift the balance even further in to the US.

Let's say the big sale doubled their weekly demand in the US. You're suggesting that the lack of a big sale caused demand to quadruple in Germany, France, Spain, etc.? =/

And in response to the bold, wasn't that after Christmas/December? That would indicate either stuffing the channels or huge drop off in post-christmas sales.

Well, the story ran on the 10th. The Saturn manager indicated XBone "just wasn't selling" (author's words), but didn't really give a time frame on that. That said, I don't really know how retail normally works in Germany, but it seems unlikely he'd be ready to cut bait after just a week of slow sales. Especially not to the tune of taking a €70 loss per unit. MediaMarkt indicated they also had "slow sales" of the Bone, and while they said sales picked up temporarily at Christmas, that in itself would seem to indicate it's been an issue for them for some time now.

Oh, and I forgot to mention this before, regarding your statement, "In Q3, sales improved thanks to launching in 29 more countries and the effects of the Kinect purge of 2014." First, Kinect was actually dropped in June after a May announcement, which is Q2, not Q3. More to the point, I've heard several people talk about increased sales following the disKinect, but is there any evidence of that whatsoever? IIRC from NPD, their sales tanked when they made the announcement in May, and sure enough, their May->June sales doubled, but didn't that take them right back to the same levels they had in April? Wasn't it something like 140k->70k->140k? That would seem to indicate that a lot of the people who'd been buying the Bone up to that point didn't actually want the Kinect that came with it, but it also seems to indicate its removal did little to increase the overall appeal of the system. So where exactly did this idea come from?

If they were based on faith, I would have put 13 million sold through and 15 million shipped

lol <3

Countries in the ROTW. Again, sorry.

Ohhhh!

 

[Welfare]

I'm actually one of the believers of XBO being +10 million, I'm only arguing about the ratios, which I believe will continue to be 60:40 or higher in favor of US.

Ah.

Seriously, when is that Knack avatar going away?

 

[Chobel]

Ah.

Seriously, when is that Knack avatar going away?

April 1st.

 

[Aquamarine]

So we will only ever know how much MS shipped from their quarterly report and never have an actual sell through number.

And with Sony we will never know shipped numbers but only sell through numbers until MS' shipped numbers start outpacing Sony's sell through numbers, where Sony will start stating shipped numbers with their quarterly reports.

And then we will never know either sides sell through numbers until someone's sell through numbers are higher than the other's shipped numbers again.

no.

see this:

1) ps4 ltd shipped (2013-12-31) - 4.5 million
2) ps4 ltd shipped (2014-03-31) - 7.5 million
3) ps4 ltd shipped (2014-06-30) - 10.2 million
4) ps4 ltd shipped (2014-09-30) - 13.5 million
5) ps4 ltd sell-through (2015-01-04) - 18.5 million

 

[Nightengale]

Sony reveals their shipment numbers every quarter as part of their quarterlies.

Next month, we'll get PS4 shipped figures as part of Q3 closing.

 

[Death2494]

Well, no, I don't think it's feasible. That's why I asked someone to break it down for me, but I was unable to really follow his explanation.

At best they only did 644k from July-Sept. and they launched in they're tier 2 countries. So I'm predicting a 1.5M shipping from the Q3 2014. At best we're looking at a 7.3M before Q4 and this is a shipped number not sold through.

Sony reveals their shipment numbers every quarter as part of their quarterlies.

Next month, we'll get PS4 shipped figures as part of Q3 closing.

I'm almost certain they managed to ship 20M before the end of 2014

 

[truth411]

I'm actually one of the believers of XBO being +10 million, I'm only arguing about the ratios, which I believe will continue to be 60:40 or higher in favor of US.

With the success of the temporary sale that was only in the U.S. I'd imagine the ratio is closer to 70:30 for November and December.

 

[Shining Sunshine]

Well, no, I don't think it's feasible. That's why I asked someone to break it down for me, but I was unable to really follow his explanation.

You know what I can't really follow!?!

Spoiler

That everyone is Knacked

 

[Welfare]

April 1st.

Great.

See, I don't think that's a safe assumption at all, especially given what we do know about post-launch, non-US demand. I think we're better off trying to work the problem from the other direction; first figure out what their non-US sales actually are (or are likely to be), and then you can calculate the US:ROTW ratio after that if you want.

Yes, this would be better, but unless someone wants to leak some gfk data, it's all just guesses.

I don't think 1M unsold coming out of Q1 is outside the norm at all. Can you provide any examples? If 1M going in to April is overstocked, then why isn't 900K going in to January? They weren't talking drawdown after Q4, after all.

Microsoft could've thought that the Xbox One was actually going to sell better than it actually did in Q1, so they wouldn't need to slow the shipments then.

You pointed out German retailers were selling it at a loss to be rid of it? I guess I missed that, sorry.

Nope.

Oh, or did you mean you pointed out it represented a huge increase in demand relative to the demand in the US? If so, then again, what evidence do you have to support such an assumption? One would think that if anything, it got worse, since they didn't even bother discounting it outside of the US/UK for the holidays. That alone seems like it would shift the balance even further in to the US.

They knew that the only chance for winning a month would be in the US and the UK. That doesn't mean other countries aren't selling badly, just that sales were close enough in others for a "victory".

Let's say the big sale doubled their weekly demand in the US. You're suggesting that the lack of a big sale caused demand to quadruple in Germany, France, Spain, etc.? =/

Additional countries = additional sales. Sales don't need to quadruple in 13 original countries, as there are additional sales from the other 29 countries that the Xbox One launched in 2014.

Well, the story ran on the 10th. The Saturn manager indicated XBone "just wasn't selling" (author's words), but didn't really give a time frame on that. That said, I don't really know how retail normally works in Germany, but it seems unlikely he'd be ready to cut bait after just a week of slow sales. Especially not to the tune of taking a &#8364;70 loss per unit. MediaMarkt indicated they also had "slow sales" of the Bone, and while they said sales picked up temporarily at Christmas, that in itself would seem to indicate it's been an issue for them for some time now.

I have nothing to say here.

Oh, and I forgot to mention this before, regarding your statement, "In Q3, sales improved thanks to launching in 29 more countries and the effects of the Kinect purge of 2014." First, Kinect was actually dropped in June after a May announcement, which is Q2, not Q3.

Sales in Q3 would be better thanks to the Kinect disconnect.

More to the point, I've heard several people talk about increased sales following the disKinect, but is there any evidence of that whatsoever? IIRC from NPD, their sales tanked when they made the announcement in May, and sure enough, their May->June sales doubled, but didn't that take them right back to the same levels they had in April? Wasn't it something like 140k->70k->140k? That would seem to indicate that a lot of the people who'd been buying the Bone up to that point didn't actually want the Kinect that came with it, but it also seems to indicate its removal did little to increase the overall appeal of the system. So where exactly did this idea come from?

115k -> 77k -> 197k -> 131k -> 160k (April - May - June - July - August)

 

[serversurfer]

You know what I can't really follow!?!

Spoiler

That everyone is Knacked

It means we're in the Cool Kids Club. 8)

 

[Welfare]

At best they only did 644k from July-Sept. and they launched in they're tier 2 countries. So I'm predicting a 1.5M shipping from the Q3 2014. At best we're looking at a 7.3M before Q4 and this is a shipped number not sold through.

Are you referring to shipments or sold through WW here? Sold through in just the US was 575k during that period.

 

[serversurfer]

Yes, this would be better, but unless someone wants to leak some gfk data, it's all just guesses.

Well, we have had leaks, and those leaks are precisely the reason I think your "more or less the same ratio at first, with non-US sales exploding near the end" methodology is flawed.

Microsoft could've thought that the Xbox One was actually going to sell better than it actually did in Q1, so they wouldn't need to slow the shipments then.

But wouldn't that seem to support my assertion that their post-launch sales really tanked? =/

They knew that the only chance for winning a month would be in the US and the UK. That doesn't mean other countries aren't selling badly, just that sales were close enough in others for a "victory".

Well, yes, that explains why they didn't bother, but it doesn't explain why you think they experienced such a massive surge in countries that (seemingly) by Microsoft's own estimates weren't even worth bothering with. =/

Additional countries = additional sales. Sales don't need to quadruple in 13 original countries, as there are additional sales from the other 29 countries that the Xbox One launched in 2014.

That's another thing. You're attributing a significant bump to Tier 2, but you need to remember why those countries are considered Tier 2 in the first place; because they're hardly worth bothering with for MS.

Take a look at Spain. They'd sold ~36k there by the end of 2013, and in the process spent ~€570 on advertising per unit sold. It quite literally would've been significantly cheaper for them to simply give XBones away for free. Now, between E3 and the initial reduction in the number of launch countries from 21 to 13, they took pre-orders for about two months, so it seems likely they would've had a fairly good idea of the tiny numbers they'd be getting out of Spain. And despite that, that was one of the launches they actually followed through on. Things were so bad elsewhere, they actually canceled announced launches, that they'd been taking orders from for two months. So if MS knew for a fact that those other countries wouldn't support a significant number of sales, then why are you so sure that they are?

Sales in Q3 would be better thanks to the Kinect disconnect.

115k -> 77k -> 197k -> 131k -> 160k (April - May - June - July - August)

Thanks for the numbers. I'm seeing some sales shifted from May in to June, but I'm not really seeing any sustained increase in demand in the months that follow. They were gifting Madden in August, weren't they?

 

[spatenfloot]

LOL but he/she sounded like a riot. Anyone remember a high point?

That time he got banned?

 

[Aquamarine]

More to the point, I've heard several people talk about increased sales following the disKinect, but is there any evidence of that whatsoever? IIRC from NPD, their sales tanked when they made the announcement in May, and sure enough, their May->June sales doubled, but didn't that take them right back to the same levels they had in April? Wasn't it something like 140k->70k->140k? That would seem to indicate that a lot of the people who'd been buying the Bone up to that point didn't actually want the Kinect that came with it, but it also seems to indicate its removal did little to increase the overall appeal of the system. So where exactly did this idea come from?

115k -> 77k -> 197k -> 131k -> 160k (April - May - June - July - August)

Thanks for the numbers. I'm seeing some sales shifted from May in to June, but I'm not really seeing any sustained increase in demand in the months that follow. They were gifting Madden in August, weren't they?

remember that june 2014 was a five-week month.


so if we were to normalize the sales, it would be as follows:

115 -> 77 -> 158 -> 131 -> 160

 

[Carl]

Yep. It's all COD here which is ironic considering Grimsby is a fishing port ...

Grimsby is grim. I'm from Lincolnshire but the other end - Boston. Which is also grim.

...anyway...

 

[Pound_lb003]

Grimsby is grim. I'm from Lincolnshire but the other end - Boston. Which is also grim.

...anyway...

All cherry blossom and sunshine in the south, here.

We also like good games, none of this CoD malarkey.

 

[Osiris]

Grimsby might be grim, but I feel more sympathy for the guy in Boston, one of the few areas in the country I honestly expected to see an inbreed sitting on a porch playing a Banjo. (My uncle lived in Bicker, FWIW).

I try not to allow my car to slow to less than 30mph when traveling through that county, a habit that only certain areas of Northamptonshire shares.

 

[Death2494]

115k -> 77k -> 197k -> 131k -> 160k (April - May - June - July - August)

Wait. Microsoft said they only doubled May's sales for the month. You have them nearly tripling that for the month of June. by over 40k. But that's irrelevant since they announced July that the combined shipments for Xbox One and Xbox 360 were 1.1M. again we don't know the split but some say that they shipped like 800k Xbox Ones. So as of June 30th Xbox One's shipped 5.8M July- Sept Q3 is probably 1.5M shipped. They would place Xbox One @ 7.3M shipped as of September 31st. They would need to ship 2.7M to be reach 10M shipped I don't think they managed this before Dec 3. like you want to believe when Natella said they hit 10M before NPD was released.

 

[prwxv3]

LOL but he/she sounded like a riot. Anyone remember a high point?

He tried to assert that to pubs shipped is the same as sold and when people called him out in it it tried to say it was his opinion when he stated it as fact. Then he directly challenged bish over mods being baised and then got banned. What a way to go.

 

[Welfare]

Wait. Microsoft said they only doubled May's sales for the month. You have them nearly tripling that for the month of June. by over 40k. But that's irrelevant since they announced July that the combined shipments for Xbox One and Xbox 360 were 1.1M. again we don't know the split but some say that they shipped like 800k Xbox Ones. So as of June 30th Xbox One's shipped 5.8M July- Sept Q3 is probably 1.5M shipped. They would place Xbox One @ 7.3M shipped as of September 31st. They would need to ship 2.7M to be reach 10M shipped I don't think they managed this before Dec 3. like you want to believe when Natella said they hit 10M before NPD was released.

When you normalize the month of June from 5 weeks to 4 weeks, it is 158k.

I also don't see MS shipping less than 3 million last Q, as they shipped 3.9 million at launch. If anything MS are going to try to ship at least that if not more. But hey, we'll see NPD on thursday and MS will give their quarterly results on the 26th.

 

[Aquamarine]

Wait. Microsoft said they only doubled May's sales for the month. You have them nearly tripling that for the month of June. by over 40k.

didn't you see my post?

remember that june 2014 was a five-week month.


so if we were to normalize the sales, it would be as follows:

115 -> 77 -> 158 -> 131 -> 160

microsoft was normalising sales, as you should because of the tracking period discrepancies.

just using a straight 77k -> 197k comparison is fundamentally misleading.

 

[Death2494]

When you normalize the month of June from 5 weeks to 4 weeks, it is 158k.

I also don't see MS shipping less than 3 million last Q, as they shipped 3.9 million at launch. If anything MS are going to try to ship at least that if not more.

Where would the demand come from though? Besides America and the UK.

 

[Death2494]

didn't you see my post?




microsoft was normalising sales, as you should because of the tracking period discrepancies.

just using a straight 77k -> 197k comparison is fundamentally misleading.

Didn't catch your post in time. You and Creamsugar were severely missed during GAF's numbers blackout.

 

[David___]

LOL but he/she sounded like a riot. Anyone remember a high point?

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=138628045&postcount=1135

 

[schaft0620]

You guys should just agree that the Xbox one is somewhere between 8 and 10 million and that you're going to find out the exact number on the 26th. There's no other way to figure out exactly how many.