The Artisan
Member
off topic, but I hope the one good thing to come out of that hack will come to fruition: seeing spiderman in the mcu.
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Sony announces 18.5 million PlayStation 4 consoles sold WW
- Thread starter Krakn3Dfx
- Start date
off topic, but I hope the one good thing to come out of that hack will come to fruition: seeing spiderman in the mcu.
serversurfer
Member
He didn't really seem to be questioning the 30M at all. What he said was that the growth from 15-20 to 30 seems to come largely from the fact that they've already launched in to Tier 2, but in generations past, those launches were yet to come. So given that you've already "expanded the market" in the traditional way, what makes you so confident you can grow it even further? That's what I got from his question anyway. As for her response, she was kinda all over the map.
Yeah, I know she says that, but that contradicts what was in the report, which clearly says 30M shipped. It also talks separately about "strong sell-through," which would seem to indicate the author knows sell-through is a thing too.
Lisa's "explanation" taken as a whole and in combination with the fairly clear verbiage in the report itself is about as clear as mud. It doesn't really clarify anything, and instead just introduces a bunch of questions about what she's even trying to say. The report itself seems quite clear; 30M consoles have been shipped, and both customers report they're pleased with their sell-through. We wouldn't be discussing it at all if not for her confusing clarification. That leads me to believe she may have been the one who was a bit confused, as there was nothing particularly confusing about what the author originally wrote.
Lisa is the author.... she was clarifying her own words.
She was the one doing the conference call for the console sales part.
People still care about Spiderman?
serversurfer
Member
Well, then I really don't know what to say, except that I find it very hard to believe MS have actually sold anywhere close to 11.5M units to customers. I'd be surprised if their shipments were even that high. "Nearly 30M sold through" is pretty hard to swallow.
I disagree.
I agree that 11.5m sold through is too high for Xbox One. And that's really where the issue lies because AMD aren't being very specific. They say "Nearly 30m" which could mean anything at the end of the day.
If we look at shipments I'd say that PS4+X1 will exceed 30m (not by much) but when you look at sell through then that will be under 30m at this point. That'd line up with what AMD are supposedly saying.
Even if we take X1 at 10m sold through, add that to 18.5m and you get ~28.5m which is "nearly 30m"
Anyway, I need to sleep. I'll come back to you guys later.
The Artisan
Member
no, but that's why sony is somewhat talking to disney. so that people will hopefully start caring again.
serversurfer
Member
Right, and even 27.6M is closer to 30M than 25M. 9.1M sold through for XB3 is "entirely possible."
Really, without a lot more clarification, I don't think we can glean any particularly useful information from AMD's report. Basically, we're going to be guessing at Microsoft's numbers using a combination of Sony's stock levels and estimates of just how quickly XB2 is tanking.
Speaking of, anyone happen to have YOY Q4 NPD for the 360? Going back a few years would be awesome. <3
The Artisan
Member
is there even a point of guesstimating xbone's numbers if all we'll officially get is shipped?Right, and even 27.6M is closer to 30M than 25M. 9.1M sold through for XB3 is "entirely possible."
Really, without a lot more clarification, I don't think we can glean any particularly useful information from AMD's report. Basically, we're going to be guessing at Microsoft's numbers using a combination of Sony's stock levels and estimates of just how quickly XB2 is tanking.
Speaking of, anyone happen to have YOY Q4 NPD for the 360? Going back a few years would be awesome. <3
Dragonborn
Member
I'm pretty sure Spider-Man is the most popular comic book character in the world, so yea, they care.
Do they care about Sony helmed Spidey films? Well, that's a whole different thing. You can bet a good Spider Man film backed by Marvel is a guaranteed Billion gross.
HomerSimpson-Man
Member
In terms of merchandising he's number 1 comic book IP by a mile. Spider-man merchandising alone brings in more money to Disney than all other comic book IP merchandise combined from Marvel or DC; Batman, Superman, Iron-man, etc don't come close.
Spider-man is a top dog and Disney knows this even if they don't have the movie IP and are on friendly terms with Sony. Even at it's weakest it's a $700+ million grossing per film franchise. They could do even bigger and they Sony/Disney knows this.
Really hope the character gets a movie worth a damn some day.
Welfare
Member
My numbers aren't going to be super accurate (rounded to closest 100k), but are close enough.
2005: 600k
2006: 1.8m (+200% YOY)
2007: 2.4m (+33% YOY)
2008: 2.6m (+8% YOY)
2009: 2.4m (-8% YOY)
2010: 3.6m (+50% YOY)
2011: 3.8m (+6% YOY)
2012: 2.9m (-24% YOY)
2013: 1.5M (-48% YOY)
2014: 700k (-53% YOY)
The Artisan
Member
eh, nowadays it's definitely Batman.
Spidey's gone down the drain ever since SM3. The reboot honestly didn't help.
But anyways, whatever is going on behind closed doors isn't about sony selling spidey back to disney, it is about the 2 conglomerates making a deal, but it sounds like you already know that.
Nightengale
Member
By analysing historical approximates of sell-through vs shipment at various times, one can come to a pretty good guess of how much either one is.
Example, there was a chart that compared the confirmed shipment figures of 13.5 mil PS4s vs the 10 million sells through in August, which came down to an overall guess that Sony's shipment is around a million above their sell-through on average.
The Artisan
Member
I understand and even respect that, but it just *feels* somewhat pointless if mS themselves can't come out with a number. I don't want to sound harsh but it makes them look weak, if the reason they're not doing is because it is far lower than Ps4's.
Like I said before, I think it is safe to say that the PlayStation brand is one of, if not the strongest name in gaming nowadays. The Ps2 was king, and even after the success of the 360, the Ps3 still was able to stay relevant, and match the 360. What's so different now?
HomerSimpson-Man
Member
You can argue for movie grosses, but overall?
It's Spider-man. Seriously it's not a contest when it comes to overall superhero products.
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/superhero-earns-13-billion-a-748281
None of the other properties touch Spider-man, not even halfway! They aren't even making the movies and Spider-man is grossing over a billion a year.
Vallen Chaos Valiant
Banned
Although as I mentioned earlier, this is only effective if you disregard the possibility of excessive shipments for marketing purposes.
Companies are not allowed to lie about sell-through numbers or shipping numbers. But they CAN temporarily inflate shipped numbers if they are willing to take the financial hit. Sadly when they do that, your method become unreliable.
The whole point of reporting only shipped numbers, is to obscure the sell-through numbers. So not saying your method doesn't work, it just tends to fail just at the moment when you care about the accuracy the most.
The Artisan
Member
ah, well to be quite honest I was referring mostly to movie grosses. We can look at the long and short of this (you've shown me the long), but I think in film, and its reception, is what is most telling of a comic book superhero's household and public reputation.
Dragonborn
Member
It really isn't though. I mean, just look at how much bigger Spidey is WW. Batman doesn't even come close. Hell, the reason Sony and Disney have such a good relationship is because Sony sold back the merchandise rights back to Disney and that's where the mouse makes bank.
Spidey is absolutely the biggest super hero around. The movies just happen to be absolutely terrible. A Grade A Spidey movie would easily outsell a Grade A Batman film (and I'm more of a batman fan).
serversurfer
Member
I think Sony should let Marvel have Spider-Man. It seems clear Marvel can do some pretty great things with it, if only integrate it in to the Cinematic Universe.
Thanks. So "roughly half " seems like a fairly reasonable baseline for XB2 when it's time to try to disect shipments.
Off topic : There is no way SPE will give up Spidey to Disney, no fucking way.
IamSuperman
Banned
In short: Monopoly
Maybe movies specifically otherwise it is not even close. Spiderman is the most popular super hero of all time. Marvel wants Spidey because bad Spidey movies could tarnish other areas that spidey is profitable in for Marvel such as Toys, Clothes etc..
never mind beaten..
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Unless they can make more money from licensing the movie rights than continuing to make their own they won't do it. Why would they? I think a complete sell is definitely not happening.
Welfare
Member
They shipped 3.5m Xbox 360's back in Q4 2013. I'd say if "Xbox family" is used again, the max for the 360 we should assume should be 2 million.
serversurfer
Member
2M sounds fairly legit. You seem to have a lot of numbers at your fingertips. Do you have YOY Q1 shipments for XB2? lol
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
Just going off of Korea,Spiderman is significantly more popular than Batman among children and adolescents. Batman is more popular among adults (thanks to the Nolan films), but all the toys, notebooks, and clothing sales are going to Spiderman with Ironman, Cap, and Hulk rising in popularity.
King Beyond the wall
Member
Spider-Man 1 and 2 are great.
Amazing Spider-Man are anything but great. But they still still make a lot of money so...
Welfare
Member
lol yeah I do. I'm going to assume you mean Q1 as in January-March, because MS's Q1 is is actually July-September. January-March is MS's Q3. Everything is also to the closest 100k.
2006: 1.7m
2007: 500k (-71% YOY)
2008: 1.3m (+160% YOY)
2009: 1.7m (+31% YOY)
2010: 1.5m (-12% YOY)
2011: 2.7m (+80% YOY)
2012: 1.4m (-48% YOY)
2013: 1.3m (-7% YOY)
2014: 800K (-38% YOY)
tattooed_dwarf
Member
Any updates from those guys who reported that thousands of Xbox ones sit in warehouses?
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
I haven't seen any yet, but once the new NPD predictions thread opens up I am sure we will get updates^^ Please drop on by; it is really a good group of ladies and fellows there that offer a more... accurate picture than what sometimes cone from these one off threads (not directed at the people who put hard work and logic into their numbers here, just for the more "colorful" commentators)^^
Right, and even 27.6M is closer to 30M than 25M. 9.1M sold through for XB3 is "entirely possible."
Really, without a lot more clarification, I don't think we can glean any particularly useful information from AMD's report. Basically, we're going to be guessing at Microsoft's numbers using a combination of Sony's stock levels and estimates of just how quickly XB2 is tanking.
Speaking of, anyone happen to have YOY Q4 NPD for the 360? Going back a few years would be awesome. <3
Of course haha.
What really gives it away is the fact AMD uses the word "end user". That word just isn't up for debate as retail can never ever be an end user.
So I've made my mind up based on all the evidence at hand that it is very clear that AMD are talking about their "customer" sales to "end users" as nearly 30 million.
We know as a fact that 18.5m will be PS4, at a maximum the Xbox One will be 11.5m but everyone knows the actual number won't be that high, especially as AMD says "nearly" and not "exactly" or "over".
It's clear that console shipments tp retail will be over 30m as I mentioned before. No doubt the PS4 will be over 19.5m and the Xbox One will certainly be over 10m as it looks like this number was reached in December. So >30m is achievable.
I'm actually in the same boat as him. Got it for $350 last year from bestbuy, waiting on bloodborne. Might give that ff psp hd game a try.
LOL, how the hell did this thread turn into a Spiderman discussion thread for a while? It practically has nothing to do with the sales of consoles....
Anyway, AMD's clarification isn't really helping things. So is "nearly 30 million" figure sold through or shipped? Looking at posts by Serversurfer and ZhugeEX (thanks for your valuable predictions, guys!), I'm more inclined to think it's sold through numbers as well.
Anyway, AMD's clarification isn't really helping things. So is "nearly 30 million" figure sold through or shipped? Looking at posts by Serversurfer and ZhugeEX (thanks for your valuable predictions, guys!), I'm more inclined to think it's sold through numbers as well.
I have to point out something here. The combined population of majority of the 28 countries amounts to something like that of California. (Yeah, you have your Polands and stuff, but they don't buy consoles.) And none of these countries has ever been a stronghold for Xbox.
Also, when considering the ratio of US vs ROTW: US had by far the most aggressive price drops and bundles. UK had something. Rest of the world, practically nothing. Here in Finland you hardly know that Xbox One exists, unless you are a hardcore gamer. I wouldn't be at all surprised if during November and December some 80% of Xbox sales came from the US.
Jimmyfenix
Member
Spiderman will save the xbox
I'm waiting for updates from insiders like Abdiel and The Shogun as well. Interesting to see how much better the PS4 is doing better than the X1 in January despite the price cut. I'm thinking ~60K-90K.
While the X1 was heavily bundled in the US, I doubt the ratio was as big as 80:20. 70:30 seems more likely. And that means the X1 sold roughly 435K in ROTW if we take the 1.3 million figure in the US.
Which would still amount to 10m sold through.....
Here are the facts:
2013
1800k - USA
590k - UK, GER, FRA
610k - ROW (9 markets)
2014
4400k - USA
1300k+ - UK, GER, FRA (will be higher than 1.3m)
?????? - ROW (38 markets)
So what that says is that ROW probably accounted for a fairly large chunk in 2014 as well, especially with the new market launches. Sure I'm not expecting crazy numbers. But to get ~8.7m sold through as a known number with another 38 markets needed to be added in 2014 says something. Even if you take the base of 610k for ROW in 2 months for 2013 and add it to 8.7m you still get 9.3m sold through, but we know that ROW will have seen increased sales in 2014 compared to 2013 due to the other market launches and longer tracking period (12 months compared to 2 months). (Similar to how sales in UK/GER/FRA more than doubled in 2014 compared to 2013)
If you take that 8.3 million figure from some random guy who gave this info to Bish.....
To be honest, I find it hard to believe it was at 8.3 million in early December
Dead Prince
Banned
I dreamt earlier this week or last they are at 21 million.
Did you have Mark Cerny or Shuhei Yoshida or Kaz Hirai as angels in your dream? If so, it may actually come true
AMD just needs to read Sony's (or Microsofts up to Q1 2014) financial reports to find out how much APU shipments were ahead of console shipments in past quarters. Also don't forget that AMD earns royalties on Xbox 360's Xenos GPU, which makes the numbers transparent for them despite Microsoft reporting only combined shipments.
If those numbers followed a predictable pattern in the past, it will give them a pretty clear picture of how many consoles are shipped today.
Back to Sony, they sell through around 1M consoles in a non-holiday month. That means between Sony's announcement and the AMD statement, PS4 is likely past the 19M mark (sold-through). Together with ~10M XB1, saying almost 30M sold-through appears quite reasonable to me.
If those numbers followed a predictable pattern in the past, it will give them a pretty clear picture of how many consoles are shipped today.
Back to Sony, they sell through around 1M consoles in a non-holiday month. That means between Sony's announcement and the AMD statement, PS4 is likely past the 19M mark (sold-through). Together with ~10M XB1, saying almost 30M sold-through appears quite reasonable to me.
CosmicQueso
Member
I guess we'll have to wait and see. GAF (a portion of its members at least) loves Bloodborne sure, but we all know that the general gaming consumer's tastes don't always jive to that.
Truly mass market system sellers are the Destiny, AC, Call of Duty, GTA scale blockbusters. Souls games, while strong sellers for a niche genre, do not have the mass market appeal that the amount of message board discourse would suggest. Sure, maybe a few thousand, or even tens of thousands, of people will finally make the move to current gen with Bloodborne.
Seems to me like this is a similar situation to Bayonetta. Targets a niche audience, likely sells some systems, but not enough to move the market in a meaningful way (ie "system seller").
The core gaming audience that Bloodborne is targeted at likely has already transitioned to the new consoles.
I hope it does well though. We need more variety and more games.
Uh... didn't Amazing Spider-Man 2 pull in like 700-800 million at the box office? I keep seeing it being called a flop yet there doesn't seem to be be any real basis in reality for this.
Grinchy
Banned
You didn't learn that until now? SM1 was awful. SM2 was bad. SM3 was terrible. Those are the official ratings.
At least all 3 of them are better than ASM1 and 2.