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Sony announces 18.5 million PlayStation 4 consoles sold WW
- Thread starter Krakn3Dfx
- Start date
Sales are undoubtedly above 8.6 million but I doubt that sales have exceeded 10 million yet. I would put the range somewhere at 9-9.7 million.
This shit's hilarious.
We don't have to figure out anything. Sony comes out and tells us PS4's sales numbers. You really think they would lie to the public? To their shareholders? That's some paranoid shit.
Only a few.
At the moment some users including myself are trying to work out Xbox One sold through figures based on the hard data we have.
El-Pistolero
Member
I find it funny. But it's a trivial issue. People are entitled to believe whatever they want, even if what they hold to be true is the exact opposite of that. They are just not interesting to discuss...
So, you believe some crazed fanboy's interpretation of sales over an international company's official sales report that is most likely accumulated and processed through a ton of third-parties?
Lol
Of course they didn't lie to their shareholders nor the public. But the shareholders know best what "sold-through" means!
Chobel
Member
"sold-through" is not "shipped", and I'm pretty sure shareholders know that better than anyone.
Crimson_Gold
Member
So you're saying the language that states to consumers is a lie?
You really think shipped= sold-in = sold-through?
You've jumped the shark straight into the mouth of Jonah's whale. You've canceled all logic and are now tripped in a smelly, deep, acidic mess.
Yeah, it's mostly fanboys that are doing it.
Sorry, but there's no other way to word this; Please don't ban me.
The Artisan
Member
I guess gaf's gonna run that joke into the ground. But No, I meant crapgamer possibly making others believe in his conspiracy theories.
No not me. but from the looks of some other posters in this thread.
Yeah, I suppose you're right. No true need to continue giving his video and beliefs attention.I find it funny. But it's a trivial issue. People are entitled to believe whatever they want, even if what they hold to be true is the exact opposite of that. They are just not interesting to discuss...
Welfare
Member
Monday at 5:30pm EST.
Chobel
Member
Just two days from now?
Yup.
But chances are they'll combine Xbox One and Xbox 360 shipments which will make it impossible for us to 100% accurately assess how well the Xbox One did in 2014.
Nightengale
Member
Yeah.
We'll be able to make some educated extrapolation by then whether or not AMD's 'nearly 30 million' is them saying it out of knowledge of actual shipment, or just using publicly available figures.
Too bad it'll most be a 'guess' only because chances of "Xbox Family" figures are pretty high.
serversurfer
Member
Those 28 countries are kinda tiny, so no, it seems unlikely they would roughly equal the other 8. Don't forget, a lot of those countries were originally scheduled to be part of Tier 1, but they didn't make the cut like Spain did, where they've likely sold a total of like 60k over 14 months.
I guess my point is that while there's a good chance I'm underestimating not-US, I think there's a good chance you guys are overestimating it.
Bish sez: "I understand your emotional investment - but it was four dudes, from multiple districts, with screenshots and stubs to back it up.
feel free to lol further
"What I'm saying is, your argument is that 10.3M sold through is "entirely possible." Sure, it's possible. You're also saying that 8.7M is entirely possible, though not nearly as emphatically. My argument is that while both numbers fall within the realm of possibility, neither are bloody likely.
If I say that something in the 9.3M-9.7M range seems like a reasonable guess given their likely shipments and apparently slow sales outside the US, you just come back with, "No, no, no! 10.3M is entirely possible!!" If I countered everyone's best guess with, "8.7M is entirely possible," would you feel like I was being a tad misleading?
That's why I've been suggesting working the problem from the other direction, while it's possible MS sold 10.3M, it's unlikely, given that they likely shipped around 10.5M. Maybe they shipped 10.7M, leaving Sony with merely 19.3M shipped and 800k unsold, but again, what reason do we have to think that Sony are sitting on twice as much unsold stock as MS? Retail musings seem to indicate the opposite, if anything.
Do you see where I'm coming from? You seem to be calculating their optimal performance, and then using it as some kind of baseline, and completely ignoring any potential ramifications on stock levels.
My bet is on the latter.
They combined Xbox One and Xbox 360 for a reason. I'd have to go with surfer and say sold through is slightly north of 9.5 million
Majmun
Member
Ehhh, return it then.
Welfare
Member
I'm sure we can get an approximation by removing any potential 360 number. MS shipped 3.5m in Q2 FY2014. They shipped 5.9m in the previous year to that. This year it's going to go down faster.
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
You do realize that in a few weeks Sony is going to do their quarterly reports, right? And that they give their shipped numbers there, right? And that their shipped number will be significantly higher than their sell through to consumers number of 18.5 million and this will paint you into a corner because you are claiming the numbers are the same, right?
Yes, I'm expecting Sony to announce 20 million shipped as of December 31, 2014.
illmatic22
Banned
theprodigy
Member
no, I'm fairly sure you are underestimating it if you honestly think the US suddenly crawled up to like 2/3 of total sales not just YTD, but LTD
America represents at least 60% of Xbox 360 install base so yeah about 2/3.
theprodigy
Member
......Xbox 360 is ~50% US, and the Xbox One is at roughly 60%, not 66 2/3%
Welfare
Member
Chobel
Member
Bish said that in early December, XB1 was at 8.3-8.5 million sold-though WW. XB1 sold 1.3 million in December NPD, between November 29th and this "early December" date XB1 should have sold 100k-300k units so that leaves 1.0-1.2 million unit for the rest of December NPD tracking period.
So ignoring sales from RoTW in the month of December, XBO is 9.7-9.3 million sold.
So ignoring sales from RoTW in the month of December, XBO is 9.7-9.3 million sold.
The reason I say it can't be 8.7m is because that's assuming that the total sold for ~34 regions was 0. Now clearly that is impossible. I'm saying that 8.7m is as high as we can go using official hard data from 5 countries in 2014 + 2013 sell through figures.
We all know it's a fact that 2 months of sales in 2013 is going to be less than one full years sales in 2014, especially with launch in 26 new markets. Yes they're small but they're going to sell more than 1 unit each....
We know in 2014 that sales more than tripled compared to 2013 in USA, UK, GER, FRA. It's not too hard to believe that the same trends were seen in other countries as well but I'll take into account that X1 probably saw low sales outside these 4 main regions. Looking at Spain we can see it doubled sales in 2014 compared to 2013 launch (but sales are low there anyway) So using the ROW number for 2013 it's not hard to say that ROW must account for a lot more in 2014 than it did in 2013. Even if we take the baseline of sales for ROW in 2013 and use it for 2014 we're left with at a minimum of ~9.3/4m. Not hard to believe that ROW sales at least doubled in 2014 compared to 2 months in 2013. (Which would take us to 10m+)
Sorry if the above isn't worded correctly. It's late and I've probably made typos and stuff.
But it's not hard to see that 10m units sold through to end users can be a reality when you consider that it took 5 regions (out of 39) to sell through 5.7m units this year when 13 regions only sold through 3m last year.
This is a good point that I've taken into consideration as well. And whilst I can't 100% say that we can trust the 8.3m number, it does fit in with my calculations and would show that X1 sell through figures would exceed 10m by the end of 2014.
Welfare
Member
6.2/9.3= .6666666667
or 2/3
just saying
In December, ROTW would would need to have to exceed 50 % of America meaning over 650k for it to hit over 10 million sold. It's dead in Japan, France, China, and Germany.
theprodigy
Member
Chobel
Member
I think you missed the part where I said "ignoring sales from RoTW in the month of December". XB1 sold more than 9.3 millions, most likely more than 10.0 millions.
serversurfer
Member
Okay, so let's assume for a moment their sell through was 10M at the end of 2014. What would you estimate their sell in to be for the same period?
Hexa
Member
I'm in.
Welfare
Member
They launched in an additional 29 countries in 2014. The total would be 42.
I care so much about I don't even have one.
You have to be more creative.
Now, I got your back!
Thanks for the correction.
I wasn't sure myself to be honest but knew it was more than 26.
Not that those extra 3 countries matter though haha.
Welfare
Member
But if just 1% blah blah blah
Facism
Member
Take it back and buy again with bloodborne or keep it and buy The Evil Within.
Facism's easy guide to winning.
we know the split is 60/40 with the USA/ROTW. 40% of 1.3 million is only 520k. This is best case scenario and it still falls short of 10million. So.... unless can show a major bump in sales besides the UK....
Very hard question.
Based on the 10m number from November, and knowing that they potentially sold in that many by December (according to Satya) I would say that the sold in number could be close to around ~11m. Either higher or lower, but certainly not more than 11.5m and not less than 10.5m.
Unfortunately I don't think we'll ever know 100%. AMD gives a good indication of around ~30m combined between PS4/X1. But I do have to wonder how exactly they worked that out as the data would have come from Microsoft and Sony themselves, as even though AMD supply the chips they don't ship out the units. Thankfully AMD are able to provide a good indication though. You probably won't believe me but I myself, over a year ago now, calculated and predicted that shipments would reach 29.7m cumulative units between X1 and PS4. Now I think it's higher slightly.
Jimmyfenix
Member
0 is a number
Chobel
Member
It doesn't work like that. 1.3 mil is the 60%, so 40% will be 0.86 mil.