Gotcha but that is best case and that puts it around 10.1 million. But no other region can justify such an increase in sales. Japan is not even 5k. China may be 50k
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Sony announces 18.5 million PlayStation 4 consoles sold WW
- Thread starter Krakn3Dfx
- Start date
Wouldn't the 60/40 split be closer to 70/30 because of the the US only, temporary sale and bundles for the holidays? the 60/40 split I highly doubt would apply considering its success in the US during the holidays.
Edit: maybe even 80/20
semiconscious
Member
Exactly. I was providing the best case scenario and even then it's slightly over 10m by only 100k. This would also explain why the sale was reinstated in America only
Oh and for anyone interested.
Here is what Lisa Su from AMD said in regards to the 30 million number.
It's obvious that "customer" is referring to Sony and Microsoft. Now unit shipments to end users is what I want clarified. Does that mean unit shipments to end users, consumers. Or does that mean unit shipments to end users, retailers.
Well all we know is nearly 30m. I might be inclined to believe that when they say nearly 30m they are talking sold through to end users here rather than shipped to retailers.
Anyone have any thoughts on this?
Here is what Lisa Su from AMD said in regards to the 30 million number.
It's obvious that "customer" is referring to Sony and Microsoft. Now unit shipments to end users is what I want clarified. Does that mean unit shipments to end users, consumers. Or does that mean unit shipments to end users, retailers.
Well all we know is nearly 30m. I might be inclined to believe that when they say nearly 30m they are talking sold through to end users here rather than shipped to retailers.
Anyone have any thoughts on this?
So you walked into a store and bought a PS4, or checked out online, without knowing if it had any games you wanted? Then only realised afterwards??????
Uhhhh.......yeah.
There sure are some bizarro purchases when it comes to PS4.
Welfare
Member
I think it would be shipped and not sold to consumers. That would mean the Xbox One sold 11.5m
theprodigy
Member
"Nearly 30 million" could feasibly mean as little as 29 million (or even less?), as was discussed earlier, so not quite.
Welfare
Member
Or it could mean 29.99999999999999999999m
In the same way that nearly 10m shipped could mean 5m shipped.
IS IT SO HARD TO GET AN ACCURATE NUMBER AROUND HERE!
Also, AMD said they expect game console shipments to increase in 2015 and that they also have long term contracts in place with MS and Sony in regards to declining ASP of semi custom chips. (In other words MS and Sony will pay less this year for AMD's chips than they did last year, thus enabling Sony and MS to decrease production cost and hopefully pass the savings onto the consumer)
El-Pistolero
Member
More like ~50%
Not for the One; it has not been. It is more heavily relying on the US so far than the 360 had been, as far as I know...
theprodigy
Member
the post was referring to 360's ratio, as such the ratio of the 360 was posted
serversurfer
Member
Well, 11.5M would mean Sony had 100% sell through. Can we put that one in the "possible, but not bloody likely" category? 11M would give Sony only 500k unsold, which sounds quite low. Last Christmas, Sony were at 300k, but got there through airlifting, and they were in comparatively few markets at the time, and they were hard to find even in the US. Now the channel is a good bit wider, and we didn't hear anything about airlifts or launch-like shortages. 19M shipped for Sony seems fairly unlikely. I think we'd have heard more about shortages if they were much under 750k unsold; remember, we're talking worldwide-wide channels here. Now we're getting down in to the 10.5M-10.75M range for MS. If we give them the top end of that, that puts both at 750k unsold, and given retail musings, it seems unlikely they're sitting on an equal number of units.
Do you see where I'm coming from?
Maybe they get paid for every unit shipped to retail. Why would they tell their shareholders 30M units of their product are in the hands of retail if they actually had no idea? I gave you "nearly means equal to," but c'mon, son.
lol So you made a prediction, and when AMD come by and say, "Spot on, Zhuge," you say, "Hmm, then it's probably actually a bit higher than 30M"?
Vallen Chaos Valiant
Banned
My thought is that neither Microsoft or Sony would order components from AMD without intending to use them.
As I mentioned earlier, the Japanese invented the concept of "Just In Time" inventory management. However at this point the process has been copied world wide and I expect both companies to follow it in the modern era.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Just_in_time_(business)
This means that every microchip AMD delivers to either Sony or Microsoft, is very quickly used up to build their respective consoles, usually within a month if not a WEEK. And this means, from AMD's perspective, it doesn't matter if Sony or Microsoft doesn't sell any completed consoles; as far as AMD is concerned they still sold their microchips and got paid for it.
In other words, my interpretations is that AMD's sales numbers should be very reliable in determining the number of game consoles produced. Console Sell-through or Shipped makes no difference to AMD. This is a quirk of the Just In Time system and we got the previous generation of Japanese car makers to thank, for having this indirect way to measure PS4/XB1 production volume.
Well, 11.5M would mean Sony had 100% sell through. Can we put that one in the "possible, but not bloody likely" category? 11M would give Sony only 500k unsold, which sounds quite low. Last Christmas, Sony were at 300k, but got there through airlifting, and they were in comparatively few markets at the time, and they were hard to find even in the US. Now the channel is a good bit wider, and we didn't hear anything about airlifts or launch-like shortages. 19M shipped for Sony seems fairly unlikely. I think we'd have heard more about shortages if they were much under 750k unsold; remember, we're talking worldwide-wide channels here. Now we're getting down in to the 10.5M-10.75M range for MS. If we give them the top end of that, that puts both at 750k unsold, and given retail musings, it seems unlikely they're sitting on an equal number of units.
Do you see where I'm coming from?
Maybe they get paid for every unit shipped to retail. Why would they tell their shareholders 30M units of their product are in the hands of retail if they actually had no idea? I gave you "nearly means equal to," but c'mon, son.
lol So you made a prediction, and when AMD come by and say, "Spot on, Zhuge," you say, "Hmm, then it's probably actually a bit higher than 30M"?
It's very hard to say like I said before. But I don't doubt that Sony is over 19.4m and Microsoft is over 10.5m shipped as minimums. We'll find out Sony soon but not sure about MS.
I do see where you're coming from and understand your point as AMD are saying nearly 30m where as I'm saying we could see 30m exact or even more shipped to retailers. My post above does question exactly how AMD worked out the 30m number as it does seem to suggest that AMD measured this on shipments to end users from their Sony and MS using some public and some non public data. So my question is whether end users is retailers or whether end users is consumes. Because that will really change things if nearly 30m means sold in or sold through.
And in regards to my prediction I mean higher than 29.7m haha, probably nearer 30m overall if not maybe over depending on the above.
Disagree 100%.
If we go by number of consoles produced or number of SOC's manufactured then that number will be much much higher than 30m. I work for a telecommunications company and know exactly how many additional units can be produced or attempted to be produced compared to the actual number sold to retail/consumers.
AMD are making it very clear in the statement above that they are using "customer numbers shipped to end users". So they are talking about the number MS and Sony are reporting as sold. Now whether end users is retail or consumer is another question. But you have to remember that produced and sold is miles apart.
Why would you say that? You stood to gain everything. You've just shown everyone our hand now. I hope you're satisfied.
anothertech
Member
I will admit, I was in doubt at first.
But I must confess, I am amazed at Sony's performance with the PS4 on all fronts and really do appreciate how this console war is taking things to the next level.
Microsoft has had to keep on their toes to go head to head with Sony this gen. But this last Holliday will keep Sony on their toes as well imo.
So entertaining, and gamers all get to benefit. Hope this fire continues onward.
But I must confess, I am amazed at Sony's performance with the PS4 on all fronts and really do appreciate how this console war is taking things to the next level.
Microsoft has had to keep on their toes to go head to head with Sony this gen. But this last Holliday will keep Sony on their toes as well imo.
So entertaining, and gamers all get to benefit. Hope this fire continues onward.
Vallen Chaos Valiant
Banned
I guess our disagreement stem from the idea that I am not sure why AMD would ever be told of the actual detailed Console sales numbers from Sony or Microsoft. As a parts suppler, sure they would be happy to hear that their product has a market, but it doesn't seem to be directly relevant to AMD's business.
My assumption is that AMD obtained the 30million number from the actual hardware component quantities they sold to Sony and Microsoft, and not from what the respective companies told AMD afterwards.
Of course if that isn't true, then I would be wrong.
Those are brand new franchises, I don't think any of them will sell systems. I mean look how much marketing MS did for titanfall and that barely moved systems or did it ? lol
serversurfer
Member
Yeah, I didn't see Lisa Shu's statement until after I posted, and it actually has me all kinds of confused. lol Was that the original statement, or a clarification?
First she says shipped, which would normally be sold in for Sony and MS. Then she "clarifies" by saying that shipped actually means to end users, which would seem to imply sold through. Then she says, "most of that" is from publicly available data published by MS and Sony, but the last sold-through figure we got from MS was 3M at the end of 2013. So it almost sounds like they just took Sony's "18.5M sold through" and Microsoft's "getting close to 10M shipped," and said, "Well, that's pretty close to 30M," and "most of that" was the 18.5M sold through by Sony. =/
I'm not sure that a number "mostly based on publicly available info" is going to be particularly useful to us. I'm not sure why they thought it would be useful to their shareholders either.
Vallen Chaos Valiant
Banned
Yeah... It would be disappointing if AMD was guestimating, when by all means they should have the hard numbers on the things they sell.
The term 'end user' is used to describe the person who will end up using the product. The gamer is who they are referring to here. The line also said 'from our customers' which implies their customers are the ones dealing with the end user. That customer is the game manufacturers.
The statement by Lisa Su above says that the "Nearly 30m" number refers to sales by AMD's customers (Sony & MS) to end users. It is not the number of SOC produced, it is the number of consoles sold by Sony and MS combined. It's quite clear when you read the statement.
(But anyway, ofc AMD would know Sony & MS sales figures as they are the supplier to them, but using production numbers would lead to high and wildly inaccurate numbers due to throughput yield. It's clear AMD are using console sales from MS and Sony in order to assure investors that their semi custom chip market is doing well and showing that the console market has grown)
It's part of the webcast. She gets asked to clarify and then mentions shipments from customers (MS/Sony) to end users. But doesn't clarify whether end users is retail or consumer.
So it's really hard to say exactly what nearly 30m means in terms of sold in or sold through and exactly how close to 30m that number will be.
As I said just above your quote, it won't be production numbers, it'll certainly be sold numbers, but sold to who....... well that's a good question. The clarification certainly looks like a sell through figure is being used here.
So If correct, we can say easily that Sony sold through 18.5m units and at a maximum the Xbox One will have sold through 11.5m units but I'm guessing the actual number will be less than that as AMD use the word "nearly 30m". AMD do use "Sell through" and "End User" which is pretty strong evidence to show that "Nearly 30m" is indeed a sell through figure from MS + Sony to end users.
So yeh, thoughts?
Do you need the occasional poke with a stick to be reminded to breathe?
CosmicQueso
Member
Bloodborne, a system seller? Hmmmm. The Souls games never were system sellers, any reason to think bloodborne would be?
I'll break it down.
I'll use this thread as an example. I've posted 9 times in this thread. This thread has 698,320 views. This means that people have potentially seen my request to consider purchasing an Xbox One 6,284,880 times. Now just because you've seen my request doesn't mean you're going to oblige, and just because you oblige to consider doesn't mean you're going to buy it.
But if there's a 25% chance of you obliging my consideration, and those odds are increased to 50% when you see my avatar with the undeniable Lincoln Osiris, and when you decide to oblige my request of consideration, there's only a 50% chance you'll actually buy something since you're not 100% decided, but as it's an Xbox One and everyone loves green due all the environmental advocacy in the world today, the odds of you purchasing once obliging me increase to 80%. So when you factor in the 80% likelihood of purchasing something, and the 75% chance of you actually going through me to Amazon, and the 100% chance of someone purchasing something from Amazon, even if 25% decide to purchase (which is impossible as you can understand by following my math so far), that'd mean roughly one million consoles from this thread alone.
Now think, even if I've only posted 50 times in Gaming since October, what does this mean for Xbox One's success?
Exactly.
El-Pistolero
Member
My head hurts! Hahahaha...
GribbleGrunger
Dreams in Digital
When Demon's Soul hit it wasn't a huge success at first. It was only word of mouth and internet chatter that eventually gave it the 'classic' status. When Dark Souls hit, last generation was in full swing and had little impact on console sales. Bloodborne is entering a new and relatively young generation as a Souls game and this time both 360 and PS3 owners know the franchise well. This generation we have other avenues of promotion; namely Shareplay and Playstation Live. People will then tell their friends about it.
I think it will sell quite a few consoles.
hey_it's_that_dog
benevolent sexism
Demons' Souls was an unknown quantity and a super niche title, so its potential as a system seller was low. Dark Souls was multiplat and eventually came to PC, so its potential as a system seller was even lower (in terms of driving sales of a particular system). Same for DS2.
Bloodborne is exclusive to one system and is the spiritual sequel to a franchise that is now well-known and beloved by press and gamers alike. Therefore, Bloodborne at the very least has greater system selling potential than any previous Souls game. I won't speculate about the absolute magnitude, however. It could still amount to only a minor influence.
I don't think you've taken into account that 83% of GAF has an IQ of more than 110 and therefore would assume that this was some reverse psychology thing and so would buy a PS4 instead.
serversurfer
Member
Like I said, I dunno. The whole thing sounds kinda sketchy. It really sounds like she just said "18.5M + 10M = nearly 30M." I don't know where she got the idea this was all sold through, because the last sell-through figure we got from MS was 3M. Maybe MS gave AMD the scoop and told them their sell-through is 11,462,347, but if that were the case, wouldn't they be getting the scoop from Sony as well? And if they have the numbers direct from Sony and MS, then why say the nearly-30M-shipped-to-end-users figure is mostly based on publicly available data? None of it really makes much sense.
So, was the "nearly 30M shipped" in the report itself, and then someone asked her to clarify and she gave the above response? Perhaps she had no idea where the 30M figure came from, and it was her explanation that was ass-sourced? =/
I'm not meaning to accuse her of making shit up, but the things she said don't even seem internally consistent. If she's the source of the "nearly 30M shipped" figure, I wouldn't put much faith in to it, but if she was merely trying to explain the number, it's possible she just didn't do a very good job.
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
I always like to read post like this in Robert Downey Jr's "Black guy in Vietnam" voice and it really makes my day^^
She said "Mostly" public data. Wouldn't surprise me if AMD did have access to Microsoft sell through figure or at least a close estimate.
30m shipped was in the report which Lisa Su was reading on the conference call. During the QA session someone asked to clarify and thus the above statement was issued at the time.
You can read it on the bottom of page 17 here.
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9MjY3MjM0fENoaWxkSUQ9LTF8VHlwZT0z&t=1
GribbleGrunger
Dreams in Digital
Or maybe it was a complete cock up and they shouldn't have actually said anything, so now she's trying to muddy the water a little? If it was true then we'd be able to verify what MS has sold. Would MS be happy with that? Won't they be releasing their shipped figures soon and won't they probably combine the 360/XB1 numbers? Not a conspiracy theory, just a 'what the fuck are you doing?' phone call.
iliketurtles
Banned
Glad i did my part by purchasing 2. Sony is 4 the gamers.
No... it's in the report. They don't just make stuff up during a conference call.
The line from the report is-
As you can see the report says "Strong sell through reported by our customers" customers referring to MS & Sony and sell through referring to sold to end users. So when the next line says 30m shipped we can assume shipped to end users and this is later clarified in the Q&A session as seen below.
Was wondering why this thread is still going. I'm guessing it's fueled by idiotic posts like...
Edit: Just looked thr his post history...god...I can tell it's going to be one long and miserable gen for egamer and his precious bone.
Edit: Just looked thr his post history...god...I can tell it's going to be one long and miserable gen for egamer and his precious bone.
GribbleGrunger
Dreams in Digital
Yes, but doesn't what she is saying conflict with that? I'm just trying to get my head around the fact she said she wants to clarify but all she's done is actually confuse matters. I thought that was why it was now being discussed.
What exactly is the reported number? Is it LTD for the PS4+XB1? Year for 360+PS4+XB1? In the quote it just says "semi-custom business".
PS4 + XB1 LTD sales. (as of December 31st 2014)
Semi Custom SOC is the name of the business AMD run that supply PS4 and Xbox One chips. (CPU + GPU)
Cool, thanks. That gets rid of any ambiguity.
The Artisan
Member
the hype behind the game is huge. and I think the souls games coming before it and making a name for the genre helped.
serversurfer
Member
Sure, I'll buy that. But if we assume that to be the case, then it would be equally likely they'd get similar statistics from Sony. So if they're getting numbers directly from MS and Sony, then why not say, "These figures are based on information provided by our customers"? Why say, "most of that is publicly available data"? Why even reference public statements if they get the data straight from the source?
Okay, but one would assume whoever wrote the report knows the difference between shipped and sold through, yes? It's possible that both statements are accurate as written, yes? 28M sales on 30M shipments would qualify as strong sell-through, would it not? Both companies telling AMD, "Yeah, sell-through is really good," would qualify as "strong sell-through reported by our customers," even if no sell-through figures were provided, right?
By the way for people that don't know, Sony has delayed their earnings release due to SPE hack. So we will have to wait longer until we find out the shipments of PS4
http://www.9news.com.au/world/2015/...nings-of-the-interview-movie-over-cyberattack
http://www.9news.com.au/world/2015/...nings-of-the-interview-movie-over-cyberattack
The reason they reference public statements is to assure investors that the figures are accurate and align with what MS and Sony are reporting themselves. The question asked by Sanjay throws doubt at the numbers saying 30m is very high number and Lisa is trying to show that the numbers are very much real and MS and Sony have even verified some of these numbers publicly. She's clarifying what she means by nearly 30m whilst showing Sanjay why the market could be that big and why they expect further growth.
It's the second statement from Lisa that gets me. She basically says "Let me just clarify. In terms of the unit shipments (meaning the nearly 30m number), those are unit shipments from our customers (referring to MS and Sony) to end users (referring to consumers)."
It is confusing. But I do believe AMD are using sold through figures in their report.