I'd like to know this as well. Battlefront is a sleeping giant and could sweep the fps scene if Dice and EA do it right
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January 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes February 10th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
I'd like to know this as well. Battlefront is a sleeping giant and could sweep the fps scene if Dice and EA do it right
Aquamarine
Member
can someone please explain chartz's / ioi's logic regarding this?
because i have absolutely no idea why they would guess xbo > ps4 for the jan 4 - jan 10 week.
it's a major xbo momentum-killer week...the exact opposite of their "predictions." are they daft or something?
because i have absolutely no idea why they would guess xbo > ps4 for the jan 4 - jan 10 week.
it's a major xbo momentum-killer week...the exact opposite of their "predictions." are they daft or something?
Welfare
Member
can someone please explain chartz's / ioi's logic regarding this?
because i have absolutely no idea why they would guess xbo > ps4 for the jan 4 - jan 10 week.
it's a major xbo momentum-killer week...the exact opposite of their "predictions." are they daft or something?
But those $329 - $379 deals on Amazon.
Really it's the same as last year. He had the XB1 ahead for like 3 months straight, but each month NPD would say otherwise. He just wouldn't stop.
Insanity
can someone please explain chartz's / ioi's logic regarding this?
because i have absolutely no idea why they would guess xbo > ps4 for the jan 4 - jan 10 week.
it's a major xbo momentum-killer week...the exact opposite of their "predictions." are they daft or something?
Because that's where the darts landed?
I don't think anyone can explain Chartz logic.....
The guy basically makes up numbers, and then adjusts them as soon as official data is released......
And everyone on that site takes their numbers as fact. I got banned for going on there and saying the numbers were fake....
Dragonborn
Member
can someone please explain chartz's / ioi's logic regarding this?
because i have absolutely no idea why they would guess xbo > ps4 for the jan 4 - jan 10 week.
it's a major xbo momentum-killer week...the exact opposite of their "predictions." are they daft or something?
There is no logic on that site, it just baffles me everytime.
I had an account there for a short while, and I'll say not everyone in the forums side are crazy but man it really gets weird. I abandoned that account since it was largely useless, no point discussing numbers that aren't even close to reality.
I feel their WW totals are especially off, I can't imagine the X1 being that close
Yup, there is a very clear bias. iirc, when Sony announced 10 million, ioi came in and actually implied that Sony was correct. Yet later on when MS gave numbers they were quick to change then.
There's also constant, and sometimes massive adjustments just to try keeping some semblance of being "right"
Welfare
Member
Actually on that site, the PS4 is always "under tracked" while the Xbox One is always "over tracked". Pretty crazy.
Technical detail. Used to search for predictions based on [360], but we're not predicting for 360, anymore. Therefore was planning to change the search key to [PS4] and didn't want the OP causing trouble by having [PS4] in it 8 times.
Use the OP format, if you want your entry counted.
I think the PS4 was tracking lower for ages, but for some reason it ended up 19.5m in early December. Then Sony announced 18.5m and he adjusted it down by more than 1 million units.
Crazy.....
But then look at this recent article from over there....
That math just don't work.... 13.65m+4.2m= 17.85m. That's .65m less than the actual sell through figure.....
like wtf....
Doesn't matter much, only consoles I care about.
I said before in another thread about new Lara. If Tomb Raider come out somewhere between Halo 5, new COD, new Ass Creed.... I think Lara will be lost.
LOL, this is face palm worthy. Where the hell does Chartzz even get their numbers?can someone please explain chartz's / ioi's logic regarding this?
because i have absolutely no idea why they would guess xbo > ps4 for the jan 4 - jan 10 week.
it's a major xbo momentum-killer week...the exact opposite of their "predictions." are they daft or something?
Crimson_Gold
Member
Somewhere that gives out false data I'm guessing
Farts in the wind.
They count the number sniffs and distinct odors. Once this is done, it is run through a highly complicated algorithm. This algorithm is only able to produce an answer once it comes out of the site owner's ass.
Final Verdict
Member
can someone please explain chartz's / ioi's logic regarding this?
because i have absolutely no idea why they would guess xbo > ps4 for the jan 4 - jan 10 week.
it's a major xbo momentum-killer week...the exact opposite of their "predictions." are they daft or something?
LOL, I was looking at it and wondering the same exact thing earlier.
It is just sad, and goes to show that there are a lot of people here that do a much better job at making predictions than chartzzzz........
Final Verdict
Member
They steal them from here, official announcements, or quarterly investor conferences.
Any data that is not at least a month or so old on there is purely a guestamation by whoever runs that site, and based on little to no actual data.
So basically from their arse, right? XD
LOL, I knew that.
I was actually being sarcastic with my questionFinal Verdict
Member
Hey, I thought that you all might be interested in some real charts that I made myself based on NPD data that could help put all three consoles in perspective. (maybe in the future I will make some for 3DS and Vita...)
This first one is the current console marketshare.
This second one is how much each console sold month to month.
This one here shows the marketshare gap between X1 and PS4 growing and shrinking since launch.
This last one is comparing how well each console sells through most of the year to it's holiday period for 2014.
This first one is the current console marketshare.
This second one is how much each console sold month to month.
This one here shows the marketshare gap between X1 and PS4 growing and shrinking since launch.
This last one is comparing how well each console sells through most of the year to it's holiday period for 2014.
GribbleGrunger
Dreams in Digital
can someone please explain chartz's / ioi's logic regarding this?
because i have absolutely no idea why they would guess xbo > ps4 for the jan 4 - jan 10 week.
it's a major xbo momentum-killer week...the exact opposite of their "predictions." are they daft or something?
And they adjusted the previous weeks figure DOWN from Sony's announced OVER 18.5m. They overtracked the XB1 by 100k last January so perhaps it's just 'a tradition'.
This second one is how much each console sold month to month.
It may be useful to normalize for the # of retail weeks per month, so that the month-to-month comparisons aren't affected by the number of weeks that month had compared to the ones around it. Good work on the charts!
Crimson_Gold
Member
Final Verdict
Member
Ok, thanks for the suggestion, I will see what I can do with that
AstuteClass
Banned
This is all that needs to be said. Amazon Best Sellers chart has been 1:1 with every NPD result this gen. Not exact numbers (since it doesn't reveal numbers anyway), but who is ahead of who.
PS4 has won January easily. Now if the X1 price had stayed at $399 again, I'd understand. But the fact that MS recanted on that instantly and shot the ACU bundle back out for $349 is leaving me very confused as to why the PS4 has outsold it with ease for January. The PS4 is STILL $399 and has no free game bundled in either. The effective cost of the X1 is $299 with that ACU game. Doesn't it also come with AC4 as well?
can someone please explain chartz's / ioi's logic regarding this?
because i have absolutely no idea why they would guess xbo > ps4 for the jan 4 - jan 10 week.
it's a major xbo momentum-killer week...the exact opposite of their "predictions." are they daft or something?
Chartz is a joke. I have proof they undertrack the PS4.
They did it when Sony first announced 10m sold as well, having it at just 9.1m on their awful site.
Duxxy3
Member
The price hike was so confusing. So dumb.
The PS4 seems to be bundled with the last of us digital download. Not sure how long that will last. Love that more people are able to get a chance to play it.
The PS4 now includes TLOU:R for free at $399. I think the reason why the PS4 is ahead despite the price cut of the X1 is because most people who wanted an X1 got one during the holidays and/or consumers are starting to lose interest in the AC bundle.
And BTW, not everyone thinks the PS4 won this month easily. Just in this thread itself, you can find a few people refusing to believe the PS4 will be ahead without a price cut
AstuteClass
Banned
Didn't even notice TLoU. Usually it has a little icon next to the PS4, but it's a digital Amazon exclusive freebie.
I'm still going to say:
[PS4] - 255k
[XB1] - 150k
[3DS] - 55k
[WIU] - 40k
I probably suck at guessing Nintendo ones but I don't really follow them so whatevs.
perhaps one thing to consider regarding xbox one is that its sales over the holidays actually declined. while sony and nintendo saw growth from november into december on a weekly basis, weekly sales of the xbox one were slightly lower in december.
most shopping was probably done on black friday week, but the effect of the price drop could have essentially worn off over time. xb1 below 150k for january wouldn't be a surprise.
most shopping was probably done on black friday week, but the effect of the price drop could have essentially worn off over time. xb1 below 150k for january wouldn't be a surprise.
I think this is playing a big role too. The game is a few months old now -- the majority of its sales/interest probably came during the Holiday season.
Wonder if we'll see a bundle for Evolve.
Duxxy3
Member
Gamestop and Best Buy as well. No idea what Walmart is doing.
AstuteClass
Banned
What's next, though? MS removes the game and keeps the price at $349? Won't that do worse?
Exactly, hence why I'm wondering what the next game bundle will be.
Duxxy3
Member
I'm still holding onto the idea that they will make an MCC/Minecraft bundle (this is roughly the 4th month in a row I've said this).
Nightengale
Member
Nevermind.
Aquamarine
Member
when i did the research for the op it appears that walmart is sticking to the "get a voucher for a downloadable game" strategy.
for example:
they didn't seem interested in the new tlou: remastered sku. maybe they're focusing on existing ps4 inventory for the time being.
all the other top 5 seem to carry the new sku in some capacity, though.
After all the backlash Evolve got from its DLC crap, I'm pretty sure it wouldn't sell very well, so bundling it with an X1 won't move systems effectively.
Interesting idea.They own it now so it would probably be easy. I think an Xbox One box with Minecraft logos/designs would get a decent amount of attention on store shelves.
_______________
Don't think it will matter much; AC Unity had a pretty bad feedback too. Think the game will still do pretty well. Didn't really like the beta though.
Nightengale
Member
Bad feedback matters a lot, lot less when it comes to established IPs. I mean, Halo MCC still sold a lot for how broken it was.
New IP, though? Not to mention it's not exactly receiving a crazy-marketing push like Destiny, nor does it have the awesome trailer/reveal effect like Dead Island and Watch_Dogs.
This is a good point too. I don't think it will do bad though. Seems like there's enough interest in it due to the beta.
We need a 'Kitchen Sink' bundle
Their future predicting Octopus was sick that day.
Chobel
Member
Pre-orders numbers in Gamestop are really bad though.
Really? Didn't know that (if true).
Hi Aqua, I appreciate what you are doing here on gaf, but I notice that you are obsessed with this chartz site. Just leave them be, they are making their numbers from thin air and that's it.
Because in the end, ioi wins, you clicked on his site and then you are spread the words about it.
There's no shortage of new members here, who don't know how clueless Chartz can be, and try to use their numbers as proof of whatever. Every now and then it pays to point out some of their more ridiculous mistakes.
Chobel
Member
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=147077015&postcount=60
This was from 3 weeks ago, but I doubt it's gonna change much.
El-Pistolero
Member
True that the PS4 includes a free copy of TLOU. But the Xbox One bundle is comprised of two games (the two AC titles) and costs 50 dollars less to boot. It means to me that the market still regards the PS4 as the best option, even when the alternative product is sold at 100$ less or so.
loaf of bread
Member
Evolve comes out next week. Theres probably not gonna be a bundle.
Chobel
Member
Maybe MS is trying to clear ACU bundle stock (as much as possible) before announcing it? Announcing Evolve bundle this early would slow down the sales of ACU bundle.