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[Aquamarine]

Hi Aqua, I appreciate what you are doing here on gaf, but I notice that you are obsessed with this chartz site. Just leave them be, they are making their numbers from thin air and that's it.

Because in the end, ioi wins, you clicked on his site and then you are spread the words about it.

Please listen to me very carefully.


In this thread we are discussing NPD Predictions. There are outside sources that make NPD Predictions for the upcoming month.

For example, Michael Pachter + Wedbush Securities, Cowen & Company, and Brett Walton + VG Chartz are all examples of places that release NPD Predictions to clients.


There is absolutely no harm in discussing outside NPD Predictions and how legitimate / sensational they are. It's certainly different from a dedicated topic assuming legitimacy...we're approaching this from a skeptical perspective.

VG Chartz is a service that bills itself as professional. Brett Walton puts a lot of effort into his sales estimates, and deliberately tries to orient himself into a position where he wants his numbers to be trusted.


An example of VG Chartz's professional services they try to bill to clients:

I subscribe to all the major video game research tracking firms, like NPD, GfK, etc.

One thing that particularly interests me is how the so-called professional service compares to numbers from universally reputable companies.

There is no harm in that speculation when it is self-contained within the larger NPD Prediction thread.


Thousands of people visit VG Chartz and give merit to their numbers. Brett releases weekly numbers and you have a forum topic of people discussing "Wow, Pokemon sold well" or "Wow, the PS4 sure dropped this week." That is an inherently interesting phenomenon to someone like me and I like to research it.

Usually I don't mention them because many times their estimates aren't that ridiculous. But I make an exception when I see something particularly out of the ordinary.


What bothers me is you trying to shut down discussion through thinly-veiled insults. "Lol Aqua is obsessed amirite guyz?" This is a forum...it's better to promote discourse than stifle it.

 

[ZhugeEX]

Thousands of people visit VG Chartz and give merit to their numbers. Brett releases weekly numbers and you have a forum topic of people discussing "Wow, Pokemon sold well" or "Wow, the PS4 sure dropped this week." That is an inherently interesting phenomenon to someone like me and I like to research it.

I do wonder how people on that site take everything mentioned as gospel. Especially as they end up making so many adjustments every other week.

I really would like to know a bit more about how they track US and Europe sales. It's very obvious that Japan sales come straight from MC & Famitsu.

 

[Welfare]

I do wonder how people on that site take everything mentioned as gospel. Especially as they end up making so many adjustments every other week.

I really would like to know a bit more about how they track US and Europe sales. It's very obvious that Japan sales come straight from MC & Famitsu.

I think their Japan numbers are like an average of MC and Famitsu.

 

[Bgamer90]

Evolve comes out next week. Theres probably not gonna be a bundle.

I didn't even realize that. It's already February and it's a short month.

It would have been annouced by now.

 

[small44]

I do wonder how people on that site take everything mentioned as gospel. Especially as they end up making so many adjustments every other week.

I really would like to know a bit more about how they track US and Europe sales. It's very obvious that Japan sales come straight from MC & Famitsu.

A lot of people on neogaf took Michael Pachter September 2014 prediction as fact too.
Lately a lot of members of VG chartz believe numbers are not accurate.

 

[CosmicQueso]

An example of VG Chartz's professional services they try to bill to clients:

Wait. Hold on. They actually try to charge companies for this?

Oh man. Good stuff. Wonder how many clients they have.

 

[Welfare]

Wait. Hold on. They actually try to charge companies for this?

Oh man. Good stuff. Wonder how many clients they have.

You'd never guess who.

 

[StrongBlackVine]

You'd never guess who.

That is legitimately shocking.

 

[Aquamarine]

I do wonder how people on that site take everything mentioned as gospel. Especially as they end up making so many adjustments every other week.

I really would like to know a bit more about how they track US and Europe sales. It's very obvious that Japan sales come straight from MC & Famitsu.

This is their USA methodology:

There are times where it's pretty similar to official NPD figures. But there are many times where historical + current figures are hilariously off from the real number.

That is legitimately shocking.

I'm not sure Sony + Square Enix still actually subscribes to Brett's service.

I know they did at one point...and used silly Chartz data points a couple of times. But they may have wised up since then + spent the extra money for more reliable services.

 

[Elios83]

Seems like PS4 will take the month.
The situation is much more balanced now, we have 349$ with no games (although there's still some overstocking of the AC bundle) on one side vs 399$ with a game on the other side. Also MS raised the price for 10 days.
The biggest factor imo is that outside of the holiday season the dynamics are just different, you don't have parents buying the cheapest presents to their kids, you don't have impulse buying as christmas gifts based on crazy deals and so on.
It's more about people who precisely know what they want and buy just that.

 

[Welfare]

Now that I look at the page, the copyright was last updated in 2013. Guess it hasn't been updated in a while.

 

[The Mad Draklor]

I do wonder how people on that site take everything mentioned as gospel. Especially as they end up making so many adjustments every other week.

I really would like to know a bit more about how they track US and Europe sales. It's very obvious that Japan sales come straight from MC & Famitsu.

Not everyone believes in the site's numbers, but yes, it is still disturbing that some users over there take them as undeniable truth.

This quote from one user, for instance, makes me want to cry: "There is no objective reason to consider that NPD numbers are more accurate than [site-that-must-not-be-named] ones."

 

[ZhugeEX]

This is their USA methodology:

There are times when it's pretty similar to official NPD figures. But there are many times when historical + current figures are hilariously off from the real number.

Cheers Aqua.

I'm very surprised they release all this data for free tbh.

Btw, what's your input in this thread? A couple of members are doubting that MS could have sold through 3m in CY2013 as it's likely that Microsoft made up the figure. Yet they're more than happy to accept sell through figures for other companies like Sony and Nintendo.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=979892&page=100000

 

[Welfare]

Now there might be one more update, but this looks like the final standings for Amazon for the month of January.

In 2015:

PS4 - #9
XB1 - #20

In 2014:

PS4 - #3
XB1 - #16

 

[Aquamarine]

Cheers Aqua.

I'm very surprised they release all this data for free tbh.

Btw, what's your input in this thread? A couple of members are doubting that MS could have sold through 3m in CY2013 as it's likely that Microsoft made up the figure. Yet they're more than happy to accept sell through figures for other companies like Sony and Nintendo.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=979892&page=100000

I admire the dedication to debate that you (and the others) have displayed in that thread.

I've been lurking it...and my opinion generally is this:


Microsoft is a massive corporation. They have the means to track sell-through just as effectively as Sony or Nintendo, and they have no incentive to outright lie to shareholders for any reason.

It's ridiculous to discount the 3 million sell-through claim since Microsoft explicitly stated in a January 6th PR "Over 3 million Xbox One consoles were sold to consumers in 13 countries before the end of 2013."

Microsoft is definitely not above PR trickery, but that particular statement was cut-and-dry. Companies can't make PR statements like that unless they're absolutely sure, in good faith, that they sold-through that figure.

 

[chithanh]

A couple of members are doubting that MS could have sold through 3m in CY2013 as it's likely that Microsoft made up the figure.

This is misrepresenting what serversurfer and I said in the thread. We were pointing to a couple of issues with this (and the 1M sold-through on day 1 statement before that) which makes us believe that the number, while in the realm of possibility, is maybe not fully accurate.

At no point we said that Microsoft made up these numbers.

 

[QaaQer]

[3DS] 67000
[PS4] 181000
[WIU] 38500
[XB1] 99999

 

[AstuteClass]

Now there might be one more update, but this looks like the final standings for Amazon for the month of January.

In 2015:

PS4 - #9
XB1 - #20

In 2014:

PS4 - #3
XB1 - #16

Final place gap has shrunk, but I expected X1 to be ahead considering the $349 bundle. Crazy to see PS4 still beating it out.

 

[GribbleGrunger]

I do wonder how people on that site take everything mentioned as gospel. Especially as they end up making so many adjustments every other week.

I really would like to know a bit more about how they track US and Europe sales. It's very obvious that Japan sales come straight from MC & Famitsu.

I've got to say, you are so wrong with that you wouldn't believe. If you think Gaf attacks the numbers and the site a lot, you aught to see what the forum members do. I honestly don't know how half of the members are still members lol. That site is going to look daft come NPD.

 

[Nightengale]

The problem with Chartz is that while we know better, sometimes other people in higher positions than us don't, and when these folks cite Chartz, it gives legitimacy to them.

 

[The Mad Draklor]

The problem with Chartz is that while we know better, sometimes other people in higher positions than us don't, and when these folks cite Chartz, it gives legitimacy to them.

Yep, nothing bothers me more when websites use those fake numbers.

 

[GribbleGrunger]

Yep, nothing bothers me more when websites use those fake numbers.

What drives me nuts is when people say how accurate they concerning the US the month previous. Well, yes, that's because they adjust the figures according to NPD.

 

[Aquamarine]

What drives me nuts is when people say how accurate they concerning the US the month previous. Well, yes, that's because they adjust the figures according to NPD.

It's surprising how few figures actually get correctly adjusted outside of hardware.

You would think Brett would be rich enough to buy his own NPD subscription and leech numbers off of there.

But nope...they seem to rely more on GAF leaks than anything.

 

[GribbleGrunger]

It's surprising how few figures actually get correctly adjusted outside of hardware.

You would think Brett would be rich enough to buy his own NPD subscription and leech numbers off of there.

But nope...they seem to rely more on GAF leaks than anything.

Software doesn't, that's for sure. They've still got TLOU (PS3) on 5.49m sales. I mean, seriously, even after Sony announced it was over 6m nearly a year ago?

From March 2013:

http://blog.eu.playstation.com/2014/03/14/last-us-passes-6-million-sales/

 

[The Mad Draklor]

Software doesn't, that's for sure. They've still got TLOU (PS3) on 5.49m sales. I mean, seriously, even after Sony announced it was over 6m nearly a year ago?

From March 2013:

http://blog.eu.playstation.com/2014/03/14/last-us-passes-6-million-sales/

Heh, probably because he doesn't believe in Sony's numbers. I remember him saying that when Sony announced that they sold 10 million PS4's to consumers during Gamescom.

 

[Cassovia]

What bothers me is you trying to shut down discussion through thinly-veiled insults. "Lol Aqua is obsessed amirite guyz?" This is a forum...it's better to promote discourse than stifle it.

With my short post I have paid you a respect and I have never ever "lol" anybody or put an inappropriate statement like "Lol Aqua is obsessed amirite guyz?" The fact, that I expressed my opinion, that you are commenting his site "regularly" has nothing to do with "shutting down the discussion".

..but back on topic.

You need to ask yourself, why would someone make a site like VG Chartz and why would company like Sony wanted to use their services. The answer is very simple - it's about the profit.
Sony and other companies wants to know what is currently selling so they can maximize profits. For that matter they are willing to subscribe to various tracking firm - even the VG, because it's worth for them.

Now, the question is, why would someone like Brett Walton wants to make a business model out of tracking firm? Well, there are lot of money in video-game industry and only few tracking firms. He probably likes the sale data like we do, but he's also very smart to start something like VG.
The problem is the way he's doing it. He can be reliable from time to time, but several occasion proofed that when something unexpected happen in gaming industry (like one thing selling more that usual) - he is always wrong.

That's why his numbers are not allowed here.

 

[Aquamarine]

With my short post I have paid you a respect and I have never ever "lol" anybody or put an inappropriate statement like "Lol Aqua is obsessed amirite guyz?" The fact, that I expressed my opinion, that you are commenting his site "regularly" has nothing to do with "shutting down the discussion".

..but back on topic.

Sure buddy, keep "praising" me. You're doing such a fantastic job at it.

 

[AstuteClass]

Not really for this thread, but it seems February NPD is going to go better for Sony than this January NPD will.

X1 bundle is dropping down the hourly charts on Amazon. Not even on the first page now.

 

[Abdiel]

I saw someone comment on Evolve earlier in the thread, and I just wanted to reinforce that Preorders for that game are bad. Would be worse than Sunset overdrive if it weren't on more than one system kind of bad. That might be its eventual saving grace for profitability, but I really don't see that game doing well with the market.

 

[Welfare]

I saw someone comment on Evolve earlier in the thread, and I just wanted to reinforce that Preorders for that game are bad. Would be worse than Sunset overdrive if it weren't on more than one system kind of bad. That might be its eventual saving grace for profitability, but I really don't see that game doing well with the market.

Oh geez.

Can you say which platform it's preordering better on?

 

[Javin98]

Not really for this thread, but it seems February NPD is going to go better for Sony than this January NPD will.

X1 bundle is dropping down the hourly charts on Amazon. Not even on the first page now.

Yeah, I just saw the hourly charts as well. Pretty surprising how sales of the X1 are dropping so dramatically, considering how well it was selling during the holidays. And keep in mind this is before the release of The Order 1886. If Sony markets it well and perhaps even bundle it, both the game and console could sell very well. I'm expecting a bigger gap this month than in January

I saw someone comment on Evolve earlier in the thread, and I just wanted to reinforce that Preorders for that game are bad. Would be worse than Sunset overdrive if it weren't on more than one system kind of bad. That might be its eventual saving grace for profitability, but I really don't see that game doing well with the market.

Interesting. I knew this game would be a commercial failure. But damn, did Microsoft even try to market the game? They don't seem interested in bundling it as well.

 

[Conduit]

X1 bundle is dropping down the hourly charts on Amazon. Not even on the first page now.

It happened more than once in January., then he rose, then fell and so on. PS4 is constantly in top 15 whole month.

 

[Hammer24]

[PS4] 255K
[XB1] 205K
[3DS] 105K
[WIU] 95K

 

[Aquamarine]

[PS4] 234K
[XB1] 160K
[3DS] 67K
[WIU] 47K


A minor loss from XB1 thanks to the incredibly stupid idea from Microsoft to raise the MSRP back to $399.99. Contrary what Chartz says, I firmly believe that decision has crippled its momentum and put it back in the loser's chair.

It's still up from last year...but it's nothing like the 2014 Holiday Season.

PS4 doesn't have post-launch back demand this time around, so when you take that + a predicted weak January overall, it will lead to natural YOY cuts there as well despite a strong holiday season. I think the TLOU bundle effect will be minor, especially since Wal-Mart decided not to participate in it, and the fact that it seems to be worse than prior bundle deals the past few months.


Holiday 2014 was 3DS's last big push with the Pokemon remake, and New 3DS is coming in next month, so I'm expecting drops. Not low enough to match the pitiful levels of the Wii U, though.

Like I said in the full year HW thread, I think 2014 was Wii U's peak year. So I expect yearly declines of varying degrees throughout 2015...January 2015 will be slightly weaker than January 2014, in my opinion.

 

[wachie]

[PS4] 221K
[XB1] 157K
[3DS] 66K
[WIU] 51K

 

[slavesnyder]

[PS4] 250K
[XB1] 160K
[3DS] 75K
[WIU] 50K

Whoever wanted an Xbox got one before. Putting the price up and back down was stupid
They will suffer even more next month
PS not shining either, but the next huge games will give it a push
3DS holding it's breath before the new machine hits
faceplates best idea since amiibo
no faceplates for XL worst idea since WiiU
WiiU - just sad

 

[CosmicQueso]

[PS4] 257K
[XB1] 162K
[3DS] 72K
[WIU] 41K

 

[DarthWalden]

[PS4] 250K
[XB1] 180K
[3DS] 110K
[WIU] 85k

 

[Trust me. I'm a PhD]

Geez... I figured I would have errored on optimistic side, but I may just be too high for my own good... Think I am going to adjust down. Many thanks again to our insiders; literally could not do it without you^^

 

[GamerJM]

[PS4] 227k
[XB1] 162k
[3DS] 81k
[WIU] 57k

 

[noobie]

[3DS] 65K
[PS4] 225K
[WIU] 42K
[XB1] 150K

 

[Pezus]

[PS4] 205k
[XB1] 165k
[3DS] 85k
[WIU] 59k

T
Chartz is a joke. I have proof they undertrack the PS4.

They did it when Sony first announced 10m sold as well, having it at just 9.1m on their awful site.

While you're right that their numbers are often off, this is not a good pic to prove it. Notice that the latest numbers are for December 27 there on chartz while Sony's announcement said as of January 4, so there's more than a week missing on chartz. He later added that week and it added up to about 18.5m.

 

[Muzin]

[PS4] 224K
[XB1] 168K
[3DS] 71K
[WIU] 45K

 

[TomShoe]

Just gonna copy what Space Swiss said and adjust it a bit

[PS4] 234K
[XB1] 171K
[3DS] 60K
[WIU] 44K

I've got to say, you are so wrong with that you wouldn't believe. If you think Gaf attacks the numbers and the site a lot, you aught to see what the forum members do. I honestly don't know how half of the members are still members lol. That site is going to look daft come NPD.

To be fair you can get away with **A LOT** on Chartzz. Already been temp banned from there at least 6 or 7 times by now, I lost count.

 

[Elios83]

[PS4] 260K
[XB1] 180K
[3DS] 90K
[WIU] 55k

 

[AstuteClass]

While you're right that their numbers are often off, this is not a good pic to prove it. Notice that the latest numbers are for December 27 there on chartz while Sony's announcement said as of January 4, so there's more than a week missing on chartz. He later added that week and it added up to about 18.5m.

I didn't notice the date, but I do know that for weeks after Sony announced 10m sales, they had it at 9.1m on the site.

 

[dolemite]

When 2+ pages are dedicated to discussing Chartzzz "numbers", the times must be really slow.

[PS4] 220K
[XB1] 200K
[3DS] 80K
[WIU] 50K

 

[Final Verdict]

You'd never guess who.

Sony uses chartz??

My jaw just dropped to the floor.

 

[Ombala]

[PS4] 245K
[XB1] 175K
[3DS] 79K
[WIU] 60K

 

[Pezus]

I didn't notice the date, but I do know that for weeks after Sony announced 10m sales, they had it at 9.1m on the site.

Yep, you're right about that. The site's owner (ioi/Brett) has gone on record several times to say he doesn't trust Sony's numbers...which is ironic to say the least