They can't even provide a weekly chart, what is the basic.
Gfk and japanese trackers are so much better...
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
September 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes October 13th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
They can't even provide a weekly chart, what is the basic.
Gfk and japanese trackers are so much better...
NPD is only relevant for hardware and accessory sales.
In regards to software sales it's irrelevant for PC and declining in relevancy for console.
What's funny though is as their data becomes more irrelevant the less they release to the public.
CosmicQueso
Member
Nah. Relevance relates to how useful something is to drive bizness. Public access to this data has no impact at all on how relevant it really is.
I would love for a more useful set of data to be made public though. Then people would say far fewer silly things, or at least have some kind of crazy backup for said silliness.
Which Is why I think it's funny they don't release more publicly.
Maybe is what clients want, because I really don't think numbers for top 10 and HW would hurt NPD business..
CosmicQueso
Member
Since Microsoft bought Havok, guessing the Xbox One will outsell the PS4 by at least 6:1 in October. At least that's what the reactions in the Havok thread are leading me to believe.
Say your share price depends on one or two very high profile releases.
Last year, NPD said you sold X million. But, because of the advent of Digital Distribution, you're now selling Y% fewer copies this year. NPD would say your sales were down, and that would be the only message investors received.
However, your ARPU is way up because of DLC, and your DD is more than making up for the decline in packaged sales.
Unfortunately, you can't tell your investors that until you file your results with the SEC.
So the investor base has only incomplete information on the state of your business, and it looks a lot worse in NPD than it would once all the other non tracked factors are included.
That's why.
Say your share price depends on one or two very high profile releases.
Last year, NPD said you sold X million. But, because of the advent of Digital Distribution, you're now selling Y% fewer copies this year. NPD would say your sales were down, and that would be the only message investors received.
However, your ARPU is way up because of DLC, and your DD is more than making up for the decline in packaged sales.
Unfortunately, you can't tell your investors that until you file your results with the SEC.
So the investor base has only incomplete information on the state of your business, and it looks a lot worse in NPD than it would once all the other non tracked factors are included.
That's why.
Metal Gear Solid V over 1 million on PS4. Over 300k on XB1.
Forza 6 sells < 150k
Mario Maker sells 400k.
Welfare
Member
120k for the 360 and One version combined.
Wow ok. I thought it was more for some reason
Welfare
Member
It sold >325k by the end of 2014.
The way people talk up forza you'd think its some huge selling franchise. It is not.
I'm the new Zhuge now.
Oh crap, i thought was < 200k, not < 120k.
That's low...
Well not huge but I would think it would do much better than rare replays number
slavesnyder
Member
Wow, this man knows his shit.
Thank you, mr. Queso.
Knew I was forgetting a big title... 400k sounds about right. Maybe alittle less. SMM sold 1m worldwide by the end of September. >250k of that was Japan. There was also the bundle, but iirc it was limited in NA. Should help Wii U numbers a bit.
But public or not, investors will see NPD report, at least indirectly (like Wedbush report).
GameWhisperer
Banned
Forza is not a big franchise never has been. Every year forza is announced some make like it will move hardware and be a big seller..it never is.
Zhuge, I've been wondering this for a while, and I don't know how to say it, but... did Verendus take over your account?
There's an easy solution for this: start tracking digital sales. Unless they start doing so soon their software sales will become completely irrelevant anyway.
slavesnyder
Member
Easier said than done. You bet they would love to.
But digital sales all run through the platform holders. And they are just not interested to give away numbers. Why should they?
Getting physical sales numbers from the retailers is much simpler.
I don't think the software numbers become irrelevant, just more and more fuzzy. we have to keep in mind that this is not the whole picture.
Biggest problem here is not that digital exists and is not tracked. It's that the relation between digital and physical can vary extremely from title to title, and platform to platform.
For example:
A tripleA-Title still makes 75% of it's sales physically I guess.
Journey now has a retail release, nevertheless I think more than 75% of sales were/are made digitally.
And if you just go for NPD numbers it would be: well, Journey only made so many sales. What a disappointment.
Otherwise we could say "add 30% on top and you got it right enough."
Good for NPD that you still can't download and 3d-print the console itself.
So hardware number is reliable for the moment.
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
[3DS] 88K
[PS4] 415K
[WIU] 61K
[XB1] 275K
Much love to Abdiel, as always^^ Last month was literally my worst performance yet, thanks to over estates. I like the whole "Optimism for the win" kind of stance, but it has bit me pretty hard in the past. Playing it "relatively" safe this time. Nintendo will see a slight buff thanks to 5 weeks, but I do not think Mario Maker will make a large impact on hardware when Mario Kart couldn't. Still will help though. PS4 will do well with the Destiny bundle, but the drop in sales from the regular black systems will lead to their drop from 2014. Xbox will still do quite well, but Halo bundles will eat their lunch for this month (making for a stronger October for them).
All of this is subject to change as more information comes.
Bonus prediction: Metal Gear will take number one thanks to The Taken King physical only being a good deal for new comers and being just the vanilla disc with download vouchers. Activision will announce great digital sales (as they have already stated that it broke PSN sales records), but at least 20 pages of the results thread will be devoted to how it "bombed" and at least two bans for drive by shit posts will be handed out.
[PS4] 415K
[WIU] 61K
[XB1] 275K
Much love to Abdiel, as always^^ Last month was literally my worst performance yet, thanks to over estates. I like the whole "Optimism for the win" kind of stance, but it has bit me pretty hard in the past. Playing it "relatively" safe this time. Nintendo will see a slight buff thanks to 5 weeks, but I do not think Mario Maker will make a large impact on hardware when Mario Kart couldn't. Still will help though. PS4 will do well with the Destiny bundle, but the drop in sales from the regular black systems will lead to their drop from 2014. Xbox will still do quite well, but Halo bundles will eat their lunch for this month (making for a stronger October for them).
All of this is subject to change as more information comes.
Bonus prediction: Metal Gear will take number one thanks to The Taken King physical only being a good deal for new comers and being just the vanilla disc with download vouchers. Activision will announce great digital sales (as they have already stated that it broke PSN sales records), but at least 20 pages of the results thread will be devoted to how it "bombed" and at least two bans for drive by shit posts will be handed out.
Does it mean anything for Star Wars video game?
Doctor_Thomas
Member
Mind share of Star Wars is quite high at the moment and it's being pushed in many different ways (film, toys, DisneyWorld etc) so there's no reason to assume games won't be caught into that mind share and see good sales overall.
The number of commercials for Star Wars merch from different retailers (JC Penny's, Walmart, Target, Best Buy) is crazy at the moment. Not only that, but the commercials ain't even half bad. Very nostalgic and emotional most of the time.
Disney be buildin' that mindshare like cray, yo.
I think battlefront will sell very well an the bundle will do very well for Sony.
Overall though this is just saying star war merch is selling very strongly
slavesnyder
Member
What do you think how battlefront will compare to COD, fallout and Halo?
More ps4 battlefront than XboxOne halo software sales?
More battlefront than COD copies sold?
Bonus question
What will be the best-selling bundle this Q4? All consoles, all offers.
Anyone taking a guess?
EA themselves said they expect 9 to 10 million unit sales before the end of their fiscal year which will of course be amazing.
The original Battlefront games sold very well and I wouldn't be surprised if LTD sales end up around 15 million once all is said and done.
The TR bundle isn't even sold in the UK (not CA or Ch either), the biggest EU market -and- the home of Eidos Interactive.
/falls of chair
Sangetsu-II
Member
Nice job, was still missing one more week of update though here:
Amazon Monthly Ranking (Final Update)
Xbox One SKU's keep dropping...TLOU Bundle still has legs (god damn)
I don't think so. We just have Japan and PC numbers ( steamspy)
Oct 22nd - Microsoft
Oct 28th - Nintendo
Oct 29th - Sony
OTT of my head so could be wrong.
Lol i missed it so badly ahaha...
I think sales for all 3 games will be comparable honestly. COD and Halo are clearly very well known gaming IPs and Star Wars is probably the biggest IP on the planet.
I agree with Zhuge. I think Battlefront can sell 15 million LTD and that's amazing. Can't be mad at that.
slavesnyder
Member
Battlefront will do fine, but not as good as expected. I'd go for less than 15, but over 10, maybe 12 mio. I think being multi player only will be a no-go for many, even if star wars is the biggest brand on earth. a lot of people will buy it without even knowing that it has no campaign though. Some will buy the nice vader console and don't even play the game attached.
As a pure FPS COD, Halo might be the better products.
For 15 mio it would need legs I guess. So, star wars brand and movie should help to prolonger the magic, being multi player only won't.
Can you even play the game without being registered on origin?
It's not single player only though...
And yes of course you can play without registering on origin. The same complaints were made about Destiny prior to its release and look how it turned out. Battlefront's success hinges on the success of the new film more than anything else. If the film is a massive success the game will sell boatloads. If the film falls flat then the games sales will suffer. Of course all indications up to this point imply it will be a massive success.
slavesnyder
Member
damn it, Rex. Thank you. I meant multiplayer of course.
Should not watch TV at the same time.
Sangetsu-II
Member
But it's not multiplayer only either...
It can be played alone or co-op with missions or online.
It just doesn't have a campaign is what you tried to say, right? lol