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October 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes November 10th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Might as well be dead if it falls that far. Although I guess it isn't too far away from that already this point. If it flops why would Xbox invest even more when they are not even promoting this game that heavily?
Nobody cares about Lara in NA.
Cmon now.
Square agreed to the deal, Square ran the numbers, Square got the check.
On the bright side, Uncharted 5 (or a spin off) is not shipping any time soon AND Sony finding an adequate developer will be a monumental task. Still think it will be SSM in the end. No one else to trust.
Has a nice box too. Eye candy.
Bend doesn't have neither the adequate size nor the pedigree. It will not be them. "They can always hire"..... sure....
Fails to be mentioned, has Square been running ads for Rise of the Tomb Raider on TV? Online? Cause the weight shouldn't all fall on MS's side.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Bend is doing their own thing. Who is to say their new IP won't be a hit?
If it flops it'll most likely be because of when it launched. They just launch it in the spring/summer next time
Also as phil would say, it fills a void in their line up.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
I don't think it matters when it launches if it exclusive to Xbox.
SnowFlakeCake
Member
It's very silly to think ND got lucky by delaying UC4, I think it's more the case that someone at Sony came to their senses and realized and releasing the game this winter would be an awful idea. No exclusive Sony or MS can compete with what the third parties can throw up, for example I think the best selling exclusive next year will be UC4 but the game won't even sell half of the PS4 version of BO3. These third parties are juggernauts and there is absolutely no point trying to go against them, particularly when they are doing the hard yards and moving systems.
With the rumored Halo 5 numbers, it's a near certainty that UC4 is going to sell more WW with some ease. TLOU was pushed to hell and back here in the UK, actually fuck that the drake remaster was pushed heavily just this year. Sony going to push UC4 like no other game they have, besides GT Sport of course but that's deserved.
I don't usually care much about how a particular game sells but TLOU was the best game I played in the last few years, I have no doubt UC4 will also be great so hope it does well too. Unless it's shit, in which case could not care less.
What are the big games releasing near March anyway? It's pretty stacked from what I recall but UC4 seemed to stand out from the lot.
With the rumored Halo 5 numbers, it's a near certainty that UC4 is going to sell more WW with some ease. TLOU was pushed to hell and back here in the UK, actually fuck that the drake remaster was pushed heavily just this year. Sony going to push UC4 like no other game they have, besides GT Sport of course but that's deserved.
I don't usually care much about how a particular game sells but TLOU was the best game I played in the last few years, I have no doubt UC4 will also be great so hope it does well too. Unless it's shit, in which case could not care less.
What are the big games releasing near March anyway? It's pretty stacked from what I recall but UC4 seemed to stand out from the lot.
SFV will be pretty big 'round then.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Yeah SFV is gonna be big, but it isn't competing with Uncharted 4. I think it has a February release date too so plenty of breathing room between them.
Dash_Riprock
Member
Wow, so I wake up and now we have Halo 5 numbers. 1.4-1.5 is still GOOD, its just not Halo Good. Still strange to me that we haven't heard whispers of a $250 XB1 bundle yet/
I guess this means Sony won October? Still can't believe so many people in that other thread fell for MS' PR.
I guess this means Sony won October? Still can't believe so many people in that other thread fell for MS' PR.
SFV, Dark Souls 3, Deus Ex, Far Cry, The Division, Hitman, Quantum Break. It's stacked I expect some delays for marketing purpose alone.
Edit: Oh yeah there's also Overwatch with Spring 2016 date.
Honestly, I'm still not 100% on that. I have Sony at a lead, but who knows fo' sho'.
mejin
Member
"pre season", "best lineup in history", "ps4 has no games for holidays" etc. All this crap is useless now, they can't use it again. I think right now everyone is aware of Microsoft bullshit PR. But early this year some were still encouraged by the great sales XB1 had fall 2014.
This void thing and passion Phil carries on about is nonsense. It's really cute they try to act threatened by a franchise that's barely over 20 million.
Dash_Riprock
Member
Go take a glance at that Halo Revenue thread. Plenty of people here buy into their bullshit.
Kenzodielocke
Banned
So we are looking at a 30 % decline in the Halo series ?
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Of course there will always be competition, but those are small fries compared to COD, Fallout and Battlefront.
That NA doesn't care about Assassin's Creed either didn't stop them from putting the Unity bundle front and center last year, though.
If they had a 500GB bundle with RotTR and TR DE for Black Friday/the holidays at $299, it'd arguably do better than the 500GB + Gears remake bundle for $299 they are going to offer instead.
That NA doesn't care about Assassin's Creed either didn't stop them from putting the Unity bundle front and center last year, though.
If they had a 500GB bundle with RotTR and TR DE for Black Friday/the holidays at $299, it'd arguably do better than the 500GB + Gears remake bundle for $299 they are going to offer instead.
Canada ruins everything by somehow being relevant.
It's not like Sony doesn't weave the occasional web, they just don't do it in the same grandiose fashion.
You would hope so, but when you enter the Halo 5 PR thread, you realize that many still believe the spins Microsoft throws.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
That wouldn't surprise me. That November 2014 NPD thread was a classic. But someone that was vetted tonight already said the numbers were not huge(by Halo standards).
IF I BET AGAINST A MOD
WILL I BE BANN'D?
EDIT: Also, I wish we could get buzz on Woolly World ahead of time :/
SnowFlakeCake
Member
None of those games will get close to selling UC4 numbers except Primal and possible Division. It's hardly competition at all for UC4 with those games, I've also no doubt Sony will push that game harder than any other you mentioned. If UC4 sells like shit, the blame certainly won't rest on Sonys shoulders but rather it just does not have huge appeal.
UC4 is going to be interesting for so many reasons, mainly that Uncharted was already a pretty big franchise but TLOU released and I think helped gain a lot of new fans, including me. Were Hennig and the other dude still directing this, would not have given a shit about UC4. Where Straley goes, I shall follow.
I can't comment on what Bish saw or what the guy said, but I just know it's typically confirmation of a source existing and that the source is a reasonably believable source, not that it's necessarily true. If he had more compelling evidence, then that's something different.
And the Tomb Raider gloom is sort of unnecessary. Square Enix sold like 4 million copies of the last one at $5 on PC and everyone thinks that's a success. They'll just do that again.
I feel like Microsoft sold at least 400K xbones this month counting the halo bundle so I don't know how Sony outdoes that.
They'll probably take November and December this year though since Microsoft decided going suicidal was a bad idea for the P&L.
And the Tomb Raider gloom is sort of unnecessary. Square Enix sold like 4 million copies of the last one at $5 on PC and everyone thinks that's a success. They'll just do that again.
I feel like Microsoft sold at least 400K xbones this month counting the halo bundle so I don't know how Sony outdoes that.
They'll probably take November and December this year though since Microsoft decided going suicidal was a bad idea for the P&L.
But they won't be able to sell it on Steam for a few months.
Doom & gloom is gonna draaaaag.
gundamkyoukai
Member
Well Halo 3 did 3.3 million along with 360 doing 527,800 that month .
They not going to match that for certain .
They not going to match that for certain .
migh_and_highty
Neo Member
I'm not that surprised, a lot of people would wait for battlefront or cod, maybe getting halo later. Microsoft games drop in price quicker than other pubs in UK usually.
It's very silly to think ND got lucky by delaying UC4, I think it's more the case that someone at Sony came to their senses and realized and releasing the game this winter would be an awful idea. No exclusive Sony or MS can compete with what the third parties can throw up, for example I think the best selling exclusive next year will be UC4 but the game won't even sell half of the PS4 version of BO3. These third parties are juggernauts and there is absolutely no point trying to go against them, particularly when they are doing the hard yards and moving systems.
With the rumored Halo 5 numbers, it's a near certainty that UC4 is going to sell more WW with some ease. TLOU was pushed to hell and back here in the UK, actually fuck that the drake remaster was pushed heavily just this year. Sony going to push UC4 like no other game they have, besides GT Sport of course but that's deserved.
I don't usually care much about how a particular game sells but TLOU was the best game I played in the last few years, I have no doubt UC4 will also be great so hope it does well too. Unless it's shit, in which case could not care less.
What are the big games releasing near March anyway? It's pretty stacked from what I recall but UC4 seemed to stand out from the lot.
People keep repeating that, but it's not true at all, all the best selling exclusives last gen released in the holidays, competing With Call of Duty, Battlefield, and Assassin's Creed in their peak, as well as various big games like Skyrim. This holiday season is tame compared to what Halo, Uncharted, and Gran Turismo went against in the past. A 10 million seller doesn't just suddenly crumble because a 15 or 20 million seller releases in the same month, let alone a big month for spending like November.
US+UK @ 62% was last gen with the popular xbox360. He is right, they make up close to 70% for xbox one.
gundamkyoukai
Member
I think people are looking at it from a USA perspective .
Stuff like GT and UC ( Sony games in the whole ) do better in EU .
So if they bring them out during holidays they will still great cause EU is where they get most of there sales anyway .
Final Verdict
Member
I hope they do well, but I understand people's concerns. PS4 just got a price drop, and MS already confirmed that the Halo Bundle was Their best selling sku for the month (in the PR statement) which is a huge price difference....
Last Holiday Microsoft had a huge price advantage, and this year they don't. ($350 X1 bundled with AC vs. $400 vanilla PS4)
I get what your saying, and I still expect them to do well, but is expecting them to be the best selling when the NPD market leading console just got it's first price cut realistic?
And besides, it's not like October is the only month Halo 5 will move HW in...I expect there to be a long tail for H5 with a lot of people picking it up for Christmas...especially now that it has a Teen rateing, I think we will see a bunch of parents that maybe played Halo back in the day get this for their kids.
So I personally think halo 5 will have a big impact, but we won't see all of it in the first month. Remember, Halo still has BF to sell a bunch more copies and move some Hw. Especially if a retailer or two makes some well priced bundles.
SFV, Deus Ex and Far Cry all all February, at least 4 weeks prior to UC4.
Dark Souls and QB are April, with QB being exclusive so it really should not count.
Hitman is digital only.
So only The Division is even close to the release date (10 days earlier), but it's an always online "MMO" from Ubisoft, and there is a decent chance that it will either suck or get delayed, if not both.
There is nothing else coming out around UC4 (announced so far), and judging by all the marketing muscle Sony is putting behind it, that will be a release window other publishers will actively try to avoid.
Sony did well to move UC away from CoD, SW:BF and Fallout, but there is no title that should pose a threat to Uncharted in March.
wapplew
Member
I think if you pick up an Xbox now, most will pick up Halo 5 too.
MS will run those ad though out holiday, maybe lower retail copy price after that bundle on every Xbox by Feb, I mean MCC can do 5m, Halo5 will do better for sure.
What about the Halo games? And Gran Turismo was no slouch either, it sold over 4 million in North America (1.3 for prologue and 2.8 for the full game). Both released in far more competitive environments.
Regardless, those big holiday games release in Europe as well, and Sony's games never got a hit there, their holiday games were in fact their best selling ones.
Third party games cannibalizing exclusives is a myth with absolutely no evidence, the only evidence we have proves the contrary.
EDIT: I can't believe I forgot Gears of War, the one Gears game that didn't release in the holidays actually bombed.
mejin
Member
Some still believe Microsoft still will take the month, it's Halo month after all. Others bet on PS4 cause all year even if it was more expensive, PS4 sold better. But now they are at the same price range it's a different story. Sony have a chance cause of early price drop.
Both points of view are solid.
travisbickle
Member
Yeah, it'll be an XB1 win with Halo. The price cut will help PS4 across the Christmas period, people will look seriously at it as a gift with it's new price putting it back on store promo material. But right after the cut people aren't going to run out to grab one ... well not enough to beat XB1.
US alone. Perhaps I'm being optimistic, but 400k for TR doesn't seem far-fetched. I could see it doing 310k on Xbox One and 90k on X360. I should mention that I think anything less than a million is a bullet to the head for the franchise.
According to Abdiel (a retail insider), the TR bundles haven't been making a splash at retail. It's expected, but I think Fallout will do more damage to TR than people think.
Aceofspades
Banned
NPD i think we are looking at about 90% decline. From 3.3m Halo 3 to ~1.85 (including digital) for Halo 5.
EDIT: percentage was wrong meant 50%
get2sammyb
Member
I think the biggest problem for Tomb Raider is not whether this version flops - I'm sure Microsoft will have coughed up enough cash to cover development - but whether it stunts the growth of the brand. This is something that they were very eager to talk about after the reboot.
As the second entry in the "new series", this should be their Uncharted 2, gearing up for the smash hit of Tomb Raider 3. But that may not happen now...
I still think the game will end up moving units - but probably at bargain bin price points. At full-price, it's DOA.
As the second entry in the "new series", this should be their Uncharted 2, gearing up for the smash hit of Tomb Raider 3. But that may not happen now...
I still think the game will end up moving units - but probably at bargain bin price points. At full-price, it's DOA.
I don't get your math.
Half copies sold does not mean 100% drop. It is 50%
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
It would be crazy if XB1 does not take this month with the release of its biggest exclusive in its strongest country.
FullMetaltech
Member
Maybe hes factoring in retail only. Wasnt Halo 3 physical and didnt have a digital release back then? If not then im lost too.
Aceofspades
Banned
Forget about it I meant 50% not 90%. Halo mostly sold half what Halo 3 did in NA in its debute.