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October 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes November 10th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Oh okay, I was really confused there lol.
Hydrargyrus
Member
Maybe dropping the price for first time
yukianderson
Member
After those Halo sales I think is safe to say that MS lost the month. A Halo drop vs the price drop, I think Sony made all the right moves. If Tomb Raider fails there is always the posible cross over game of Uncharted and Tomb Raider. Would be cool to see Laura and Drake together in a game.
Since the start of this generation, it looks MS really likes to overship. But at least the holiday season is starting, there is time to sell that stock [before MS overships again
]BTW Abdiel, can you provide any anecdotal info about CoD split between PS4 and Xbone?
The price cut maybe ?
harrisk954
Member
I've heard concrete information that Halo 5 launch numbers will be some of the lowest yet. Like 1.4-1.5M low. I'm willing to polygraph with an admin if need be, I've seen how inside information is dealt with here
Is that US sales or worldwide?
Of course it is, by a fair margin. However, IMO, it is a result of h4 and the need to attract a new audience which which required modifications to the formula. I don't think it was possible to make the bungie halo generation and the cod generation both happy; and by not choosing one or the other the result was meh. With 5, the old fans have either left or come to terms with the march of time and so 343 can continue to modernize things without significant backlash.
I think ms is aware that Halo is no longer a cultural phenomenon. It is still a top tier fps franchise though and one of the crown jewels of their gaming IP. Sony has nothing in that vital space, absolutely nothing; so it is very important and will play a big role in getting next gen off to a good start. As such, I believe Spence when he says they are 'happy'.
US, physical.
gundamkyoukai
Member
Truth is Sony does not need a big FPS they have other IPs that just as big and they can let 3rd parties pick up the slack there .
Destiny is the perfect eg of this , the FPS genre change so much over past few years .
Gotdatmoney
Member
Anyone think Yoshi's Woolly world might sneak in to a bottom placement? (Love that game)
TheOfficeMut
Unconfirmed Member
Yea, no. I don't think so. The part about Halo moving more than a price cut, I mean.
If PS4 takes October in Halo month the NPD thread will be at Titanfall month level or more (100+ pages)
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=803922
Anyone who can beat Defender on a single quarter is badass.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Do you mind gathering those posts?
Obliterator
Member
I'm leaning towards 1.5ish million on Halo 5 NPD. Give or take a bit.
Man-is-Obsolete
Member
Yep, people's insistence that Sony needed something for the holidays now seems foolish.
slavesnyder
Member
If halo is not the flagship game it once was, what will be the new one?
HeWhoWalks
Gold Member
Exactly.
Primethius
Banned
Perhaps Gears? It's hard to tell really without being able to pinpoint the exact factors for why Halo suffered this potentially large decline. (I'm assuming you're talking about for MS, if not, ignore me).
Edit: Also, I didn't really expect to see $299 deals for the PS4 this BF. Kind of makes me think that maybe they didn't win October (a stretch in logic, I know). God, I'm gonna be flip-flopping between who won so often this last week.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Gears? It does make me wonder how they are going to handle Gears 4 next year. I imagine them creating a new slogan for the holidays centered around that title.
unapersson
Member
Don't they have two in that space? One of which sold two million in its first outing this gen. I don't think they need anything bigger when third parties cover it.
The 8-Bit Raider
Member
Maybe more PS4's will be purchased becouse its the more "popular" system? If that's the case, a $50 price drop will do wonders.
slavesnyder
Member
The difference always seemed to be that MS had a few very huge franchise and not much else, while Sony always had a wide portfolio of titles and genres. Maybe no title was as big as halo, but there were many (as in Bug's Life).
Imagining a roster for PS Allstars Battle or Kart is easily done. With Xbox that's getting difficult after character 8 or 9.
Now when one tentpole crumbles it's more difficult for MS to handle than for Sony.
Imagining a roster for PS Allstars Battle or Kart is easily done. With Xbox that's getting difficult after character 8 or 9.
Now when one tentpole crumbles it's more difficult for MS to handle than for Sony.
roninwarrior92
Banned
with MS saying they will no longer talk console sales going forward, i think they were preempting for losing this holiday. The PS4 being the same price levels the only selling point the XB had left. I think they comfortably take Oct, Nov and Dec.
gundamkyoukai
Member
Sony always had some big IP .
Before Halo used to get comapre to GT since they use to sell around the same ( look like both under perform ).
Gears sell around the same as GOW both of which last titles under perform .
But now Sony have TLOU and UC which are both 8 million sellers and many more 1 to 3 million sellers .
Does MS have any other IP that sells as much as TLOU or UC ?
Other than Minecraft .
Well from a pure publishing standpoint it's Minecraft which will probably generate more revenue this year globally than Halo will (just a gues, maybe a very stupid one).
From a hardware pushing standpoint I don't really know. I suppose they could tie Minecraft to the system but that 1. Reduces the value of Minecraft in a ridiculous way and 2. Doesn't create a consumer base of hardcore Activision/Ubi/EA game buying gamers.
It's difficult for them to experiment because all of their studios are practically branded after the franchise they're tied to. Obviously this can be changed but it's clearly not their focus and would take time. Plus they can't just Magic a new Halo out of thin air - it was very special circumstances that made that franchise what it is.
From a hardware pushing standpoint I don't really know. I suppose they could tie Minecraft to the system but that 1. Reduces the value of Minecraft in a ridiculous way and 2. Doesn't create a consumer base of hardcore Activision/Ubi/EA game buying gamers.
It's difficult for them to experiment because all of their studios are practically branded after the franchise they're tied to. Obviously this can be changed but it's clearly not their focus and would take time. Plus they can't just Magic a new Halo out of thin air - it was very special circumstances that made that franchise what it is.
Totally agree. MS know they can't win this time... not withouth another pricedrop, but seem that is not gonna happen.
slavesnyder
Member
10/10
I should have specified: multiplayer focused fps. And yes they have 3rd parties, but it is preferable to have your own exclusive IP.
The 8-Bit Raider
Member
Yes, I fear that the sales gap between the WW sales of the PS4 and Xbox One will begin to widen at a faster rate come next year...just an observation.
Edit: In my opinion, MS's best play at this point is to differenciate itself enough from the PS4 that PS4 owners would adopt it as a second console. I would love a good reason to own one myself but, with the exception of D4, Ori, and Crackdown, there just aren't enough exclusives I would like to justify the purchase at this point.
Well it certainly doesn't hurt to have something besides a couple Japanese games and a remaster collection. XB1 could be doing god awful numbers had it not been for their "Greatest Lineup In Xbox History". On the opposite end PS4 could be doing historic numbers had Uncharted and maybe R&C hit between October and November. I'm talking like 500k October(R&C+pricedrop opens up a new, younger demographic) and 1.5m November(Blockbuster franchise in Uncharted along with bundles and holiday pricing).
Tomb Raider is in a weird position of being an exclusive multiplatform game. It's being ignored because it's not close to Xbox or its NA demographic. A 1st party exclusive like Uncharted would not have been drowned out in November, even if it was launching on Nov 10 same as TR/Fallout.
Edit:
Kinect Sport.
Lol.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Eh, the shooter space is difficult to breach. Sony practically has every other genre covered. It is fine for them to ride on the juggernauts in the shooter space.
I think those $299 deals are just that and should be read into who sold more for the month of October. That's not how companies make their decisions. Xbox also has $299 console on BF and they have killer deals going in right now
DriftingSpirit
Member
I don't think GT6 and GoW Ascension should be used to represent those brands on the PS4.
uncharted And GOW lifetime sales as of probably last year were 21 mill each and Gears was at 22 mill. Now granted UC4 is probably gonna sell more than gears 4 but the franchises are relatively in the same ball park.
Primethius
Banned
Yea, I figured as much (well aside from forgetting about the 299 X1 deal, lol). It needs to be Thursday already.
I've heard concrete information that Halo 5 launch numbers will be some of the lowest yet. Like 1.4-1.5M low. I'm willing to polygraph with an admin if need be, I've seen how inside information is dealt with here
First day or first week? Cause I doubt with 400 million in sales FW, Halo 5 barely did 100 million by itself. Either way, I have a gut feeling this is a cboat 2.0, when he said the XB1 won by 13k...
Edit: This was US retail sales...
Plus digital (25% attach rate) that's 2 million, then another 1 million for the rest of the world through all sources, yep its around 3 million FW. Carry on, this isn't big news.
It'd be hard to figure out without knowing how much the bundle did. If for example it sold 300k units( which I think is a lot), that's 150 mill. So there's 250 left over for controllers, req packs and copies sold
gundamkyoukai
Member
The difference between gears and UC is UC grow with each number .
The total sales don't tell you the full story plus UC is 3 games at 21 million .
Is gears 22 million with the fourth game counting in ?
Just trying to be fair but i know the events not the same .
Lol few more days
The thing that's tough about this is due to us not knowing the breakdown of money from Microsoft's statement, it's hard to tell how many $500 Halo consoles were sold. We know Halo 5 didn't have as big of a launch as what Halo got back 7-10 years ago. Would that also mean then that the Halo consoles sold are higher than many expect or does sales from DLC balance things out? A lot of questions though I do believe October will at least be a 400K month (pretty easily). Just wondering if things may possibly get close to 500K (or even higher) if Halo bundles made up a really significant chunk of the figure MS stated for Halo 5 software and hardware.
____________
I doubt the majority of those people care about sales and simply want more than just mostly yearly third party games (that I'm guessing they don't care much about) to play.
The Xbox 360 got criticism for doing the same during previous Holiday seasons last gen so PS fans (as well as people who moved over to PS4 after owning a 360) probably want to have more than just a lineup of multiplats this time of year.
Blackleg-sanji1
Banned
Well good thing they had more options than multiplats am i right?
LetTheWookieWin
Neo Member
In 5 days keyboards will melt and touch screens will crack. Logically one would think with Halo 5 it would be a clear win for MS but I'm not sure this time. I actually think it's going to be by the nose for October, and if it is really close I don't see how MS is going to run away with the holidays this year.
I thought Xbox 360 received criticism for a weak 1st party lineup all year long rather than just the holiday seasons. Once Mattrick's Kinect vision took over, the exclusives on 360 dried up.
Or am I not remembering last gen correctly?