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They are out of touch if they couldn't see PS4 beating the next Xbox. PS3 despite launching a year later and at a higher price, sold more consoles per year than the 360. That's because of EU. Everybody should have known that PS4 would easily beat the next Xbox because of that.

We know now that MS could care less about the EU besides the UK, but back in 2012 it wasn't that hard to think MS would try to push in those regions even more so with the next Xbox.

Before the consoles were revealed, I was thinking they would be neck and neck with the PS4 having a slight lead, and MS focusing more on the countries outside of US/UK.

 

[prwxv3]

To be fair, Nintendo did look really good for a while before the Wii U actually came out. They were saying all the right things: "We are here for the hardcore." "We hear you." "More powerful than ps360." "Look at all these third parties."

I would have predicted the same, to be honest. They looked like they were actually starting to "get" it. Shame what really happened though.

Nintendo Consoles have been on the decline every generation. It was only with the Wii that they were able to reverse it but that was because they caught lighting in a bottle (and its a crazy success not the fad bullshit). They had to catch lighting in a bottle again to get those results again. But they did not and the sales of their console is right on the downward trend again.

 

[Unknown One]

We know now that MS could care less about the EU besides the UK, but back in 2012 it wasn't that hard to think MS would try to push in those regions even more so with the next Xbox.

Before the consoles were revealed, I was thinking they would be neck and neck with the PS4 having a slight lead, and MS focusing more on the countries outside of US/UK.

My prediction back then was that PS4 would beat the Xbox by half the total install base of the Xbox. 1.5 - 1 basically because of EU.

As this gen showed, it's not just about U.S and U.K. It's also EU in total and the middle east. PS4 did sold over a million there.

Sony is thinking beyond big territories. They are building a global presence.

 

[AmethystEnd]

By that logic, GAF is Michael Pachter.

Maybe GAF was Pachter all along!

Oi, oi, you're 3 hours late to that joke

 

[Unknown One]

Oi, oi, you're 3 hours late to that joke

Sorry, I was napping during that time

 

[borghe]

Lol. So much embarrassing shit is said in that thread.

This one in particular is beautiful.

I agree with this.

The PS4 will do worse than the VITA, they have lost to much brand recognition, exclusives and they have IPs noone gives a shit about besides nerds on the internet. Coupled with no backwards compatibility (due to the abandonment of the Cell), Sony is destined for last place again. Failing all that, the PS4 will be $499-$549 and we will get a repeat of the PS3 but this time it will be much worse.

 

[kyser73]

My prediction back then was that PS4 would beat the Xbox by half the total install base of the Xbox. 1.5 - 1 basically because of EU.

As this gen showed, it's not just about U.S and U.K. It's also EU in total and the middle east. PS4 did sold over a million there.

Sony is thinking beyond big territories. They are building a global presence.

Agreed.

One of my first posts here was 'If Sony can match market share with MS in the USUK they'll be leading WW.'

And Lo it came to pass. If PS4 matches 360 sales in USUK it'll be in the 110mn range globally.

 

[klee123]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=489769&highlight=next+gen+predictions

Always provides a fun read.

A good thread to hit back at all of those people claiming that Neogaf is Sonygaf.

 

[Silent Chief]

1. Sony
Sony takes the successes they have had late in the console cycle and the investments they made in New IPs and thrive. Their online infrastructure will be even more improved than it is at the end of this year. Sony will continue to not charge for online and launch at the same time as Durango. Microsoft's focus on advertisements and monetizing features that are free on every other set top box will have them linger behind a world wide selling system in the PS4

2. Microsoft
Microsoft will focus on improving online feature in their device so that their vision of the window into the living room will come to fruition. Microsoft will make decisions that improve 720 as an entertainment hub, that will harm it as a gaming device. Monetization of features through the rising cost of Xbox Live will make Microsoft a lot of money, but will prevent the system from being a runaway success. Microsoft's lack of diversity in studios will leave Microsoft at the whims of 3rd party publishers. Parity with the other next gen console is crucial.

3. Nintendo
Nintendo's WiiU console will be a success in Japan, but it's successes elsewhere will not reach the level of the Wii and fall behind the other two console manufacturers. Nintendo's WiiU tablet will splinter install base and cause developers to shy away from porting PS3 and 360 games to their system during the 2 year window that PS3 and 360 third party development will still be receiving non-sports titles. Nintendo will come strong out of the gate in the United States and Europe, but will only continue it's successes in Japan following the establishment of the two other two next gen systems.

Winner?

Just partly wrong on Sony charging for online play and MS dropping their pay wall.

 

[Renekton]

By that logic, GAF is Michael Pachter.

GAF (myself included) is proof that a little industry knowledge is much worse than none.

 

[AmFreak]

The 360 had the 2 biggest advantages you can ask for price and launch date .
They were never going to get that this gen .

The earlier launch for sure was a big advantage but it was also more needed for success than this gen.
360 came after XBox and ps2. The ps2 got an endless stream of 3rd party exclusives. People couldn't buy a 360 and expect to get as much games as they would get on ps3. But the 360 became a huge success and everything became multi. This gen everyone expected to get the same games on both consoles.
The price advantage is also often made a bigger point than it often was cause it shrunk fast and varied through time.
~Half a year after the european launch Sony introduced the 40GB model for $400€, the 20GB 360 did cost $349€ and the 120GB $449€ at the same time.
And you could change the hdd for the ps3 at will cause it was a "standard" hdd, instead of paying the ridiculous price Ms asked for.
PSN also was for free, making the ps3 actually cheaper if you played online.

 

[Concept17]

In regards to the 360, I think many people forget how bad the latter half of it's life was compared to its first. Kinect and their attempts to get the Wii audience before this generation started left a bad taste in people's mouths. Meanwhile PS3 was killing it with exclusives and getting, at least, the hardcore's attention.

 

[kyser73]

Nintendo Consoles have been on the decline every generation. It was only with the Wii that they were able to reverse it but that was because they caught lighting in a bottle (and its a crazy success not the fad bullshit). They had to catch lighting in a bottle again to get those results again. But they did not and the sales of their console is right on the downward trend again.

I'm glad I'm not the only one who thinks this.

Outside of Wii, Nintendo's console sales were dropping each gen, with the GC barely scraping 20m despite selling for less than a bag of peanuts.

Wii appeared to interrupt that drop by masking the ever dwindling core of Nintendo buyers underneath sales to grandparents, but WiiU has unmasked it - the only buyers have been Nintendo console fans.

This is why I don't think the NX is going to set the world on fire. I think it'll do better than WiiU because the multi form-factor will hoover the DS buyers in along with the 'Nincore' but unless Nintendo really knock it out of the park performance-wise it'll still be behind PS4 sales, maybe challenge Xbone's top end (which I guesstimate at ~55m).

 

[Unknown One]

I'm glad I'm not the only one who thinks this.

Outside of Wii, Nintendo's console sales were dropping each gen, with the GC barely scraping 20m despite selling for less than a bag of peanuts.

Wii appeared to interrupt that drop by masking the ever dwindling core of Nintendo buyers underneath sales to grandparents, but WiiU has unmasked it - the only buyers have been Nintendo console fans.

This is why I don't think the NX is going to set the world on fire. I think it'll do better than WiiU because the multi form-factor will hoover the DS buyers in along with the 'Nincore' but unless Nintendo really knock it out of the park performance-wise it'll still be behind PS4 sales, maybe challenge Xbone's top end (which I guesstimate at ~55m).

Agreed. If you look at the threads that has been popping out lately, a lot of them are fine with the status quo. They won't mind if the specs are weak or little to no third party support because they'll buy it no matter what. If it doesn't have good specs and third party support might as well name it the Wii-U 2.0.

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

What do most people think the PS4 will end up at? Will it pass the PS1? Will it pass the GB/GBC combo? Will it pass the PS2?

Also the PS4 already sold ~1/3 of what the PS3 did in just over two years. that's impressive.

 

[Dr. Feel Good]

I'm glad I'm not the only one who thinks this.

Outside of Wii, Nintendo's console sales were dropping each gen, with the GC barely scraping 20m despite selling for less than a bag of peanuts.

Wii appeared to interrupt that drop by masking the ever dwindling core of Nintendo buyers underneath sales to grandparents, but WiiU has unmasked it - the only buyers have been Nintendo console fans.

This is why I don't think the NX is going to set the world on fire. I think it'll do better than WiiU because the multi form-factor will hoover the DS buyers in along with the 'Nincore' but unless Nintendo really knock it out of the park performance-wise it'll still be behind PS4 sales, maybe challenge Xbone's top end (which I guesstimate at ~55m).

It goes deeper than this though. Nintendo has (and still does) make consistant and ridiculous business decisions. Nintendo 64 went with cartridges that drove up costs and alienated third parties. GameCube ignored online gaming and stuck with kid friendly marketing. Wii lost focus of hardware specs and traditional gaming. Wii U focused on gimmick controllers and drove up hardware costs. I don't think it's a matter of Nintendo gamers contracting as it often is Nintendo makes really fucking stupid business decisions.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

The earlier launch for sure was a big advantage but it was also more needed for success than this gen.
360 came after XBox and ps2. The ps2 got an endless stream of 3rd party exclusives. People couldn't buy a 360 and expect to get as much games as they would get on ps3. But the 360 became a huge success and everything became multi. This gen everyone expected to get the same games on both consoles.
The price advantage is also often made a bigger point than it often was cause it shrunk fast and varied through time.
~Half a year after the european launch Sony introduced the 40GB model for $400€, the 20GB 360 did cost $349€ and the 120GB $449€ at the same time.
And you could change the hdd for the ps3 at will cause it was a "standard" hdd, instead of paying the ridiculous price Ms asked for.
PSN also was for free, making the ps3 actually cheaper if you played online.

The EU price did not matter as much because Sony was winning there but the UK .
It was the 360 coming out 16 months before PS3 in EU that allow it to get that much sales to begin with in EU .
Which is why people were saying if they came around the same time and near the same price MS does not stand a chance in EU.

Also the price advantage was not a EU thing it was a WW thing .
For eg it took Sony till 2009 to have a $299 PS3 in the USA .
MS had one since they launch in 2005 plus a year head start .
I really don't see how you can say the price advantage was not a big deal when they had a big one over sony for 3 plus years .
Mind you this also during the time that COD blew up making the 360 the go to console in USA.

 

[Cess007]

What do most people think the PS4 will end up at? Will it pass the PS1? Will it pass the GB/GBC combo? Will it pass the PS2?

Also the PS4 already sold ~1/3 of what the PS3 did in just over two years. that's impressive.

I think it will reach or came very short to the PS1, but i see impossible for the PS4 to reach the PS2.

 

[DKHF]

What do most people think the PS4 will end up at? Will it pass the PS1? Will it pass the GB/GBC combo? Will it pass the PS2

Pass the PS1 but most likely not the PS2.

 

[CLEEK]

Wouldn't it be cheaper to get a roku or amazon fire stick? People are crazy

@Crimson_Gold Does your Amazon Fire Stick have Uncharted?

 

[gundamkyoukai]

What do most people think the PS4 will end up at? Will it pass the PS1? Will it pass the GB/GBC combo? Will it pass the PS2?

Also the PS4 already sold ~1/3 of what the PS3 did in just over two years. that's impressive.

Nothing will pass PS2 but it should be able to pass PS1 when all said and done .

 

[DriftingSpirit]

What do most people think the PS4 will end up at? Will it pass the PS1? Will it pass the GB/GBC combo? Will it pass the PS2?

Also the PS4 already sold ~1/3 of what the PS3 did in just over two years. that's impressive.

Pass PS1 but it won't reach PS2.

 

[Calm waterfall]

Of SCE WWS's announced games only, I count 4 remasters and remakes including Ratchet & Clank and Beyond: Two Souls which just released, 15 new IPs and 9 sequels including stuff like PlayRoom VR and Until Dawn: Rush of Blood which are still pretty fresh.

Ratchet and Clank is not a remake it is a reimagining. There are new things in the new game.

 

[Rymuth]

Stunts like buying out gaming Internet domains prior to the games announcement certainly hasn't helped matters either.

They what now?

 

[AmethystEnd]

They what now?

http://www.gamezone.com/originals/p...as-announced-and-it-redirects-to-polygon-jt7b

 

[RexNovis]

They what now?

Enjoy.

 

[Unknown Soldier]

Gone as in....

Spoiler

the big sleep

?

Spoiler

Yes

 

[2blackcats]

In regards to the 360, I think many people forget how bad the latter half of it's life was compared to its first. Kinect and their attempts to get the Wii audience before this generation started left a bad taste in people's mouths. Meanwhile PS3 was killing it with exclusives and getting, at least, the hardcore's attention.

This.

After becoming the best console ever Microsoft just seemed to throw it all away. About mid way through the cycle they stopped diversifying their repertoire of games, stopped getting awesome indies, kinected everything and then the TV, TV, TV moment was the the final nail in the coffin for me.

All my buddies had 360s last gen, everyone! Anyone that has a current gen console owns a PS4.

I don't own an X1 yet having bought the previous two xbox consoles on their respective launch dates.

I think it's about messaging, there isn't a massive difference between the two (ps4 and xbox) but Sony spoke to me(games) while Microsoft seemed laser focused on a subset of the American market.

Edit : I'm Irish

 

[kyser73]

It goes deeper than this though. Nintendo has (and still does) make consistant and ridiculous business decisions. Nintendo 64 went with cartridges that drove up costs and alienated third parties. GameCube ignored online gaming and stuck with kid friendly marketing. Wii lost focus of hardware specs and traditional gaming. Wii U focused on gimmick controllers and drove up hardware costs. I don't think it's a matter of Nintendo gamers contracting as it often is Nintendo makes really fucking stupid business decisions.

Yup - and this leads into my next argument: bad/esoteric hardware decisions have seen the kind of gamer who likes Ninty's game design philosophy to migrate to migrate to PC. Partly because of the 'age' stigma, but mainly because it's where the more 'traditional' gaming designs still thrive in great numbers.

 

[Kenzodielocke]

My favorite thing of that posted thread is, that it is from 2012.

I mean, 2012...

2012...

not 2007 or 2008...

Well, it's on 3rd place of my favorite threads, 2nd is UC3 review thread and 1st Heath Ledger cast as Joker thread.

Those were gold.

 

[Calm waterfall]

I remember the two gaf threads that killed the Wii U.

1.Darksiders 2 director said Wii U version is same as PS3/360
2.Three hundred and forty nine US DOLLARS.

+ Developers were laughing at the prospect of developing for the WiiU. From unreal engine 4 guy to Dark Souls guy.

 

[Neuromancer]

I'm considering buying another PS4 to put in my guest room just to help keep the momentum up.

 

[Melchiah]

Yes gaming in general is in decline, its just PS4 thats selling good now. X1 and WiiU ni so much.

Those two aren't selling that well due to the mistakes the platform holders made.

 

[Melchiah]

Back then, no one knew that Microsoft would royally fuck up the Xbox One as much as they did. I could see the PS4 still being in first place but you think the gap would be this big had the Xbox One matched the PS4 in both price and hardware and with none of the bad rap?

People do that a lot in GAF, but it's just reacting to what you currently know.

A few months before the PS4 came out, people thought it was going to be as strong as high-end PC's of the time.

I bet a few people now think it's going to sell more than the PS2 did due to this thread. It's all about reacting to the current news and not really thinking in the long term.

To my recollection that wasn't the common consensus. Those who had a grasp on reality, knew how much power the high-end PCs consume. Most people were positively surprised by the specs when they were revealed, especially 8GB of GDDR5.

 

[AniHawk]

Those two aren't selling that well due to the mistakes the platform holders made.

wii u, sure. xb1, i don't think so? like last gen saw the ps3 and 360 doing pretty comparable numbers while offering pretty much the same thing. now microsoft is doing maybe 40%-50% of what sony does in a year. it's a pretty huge decline from last gen that i don't think can be explained by the poor xb1 announcement in may. or maybe there were a lot of people who owned both a 360 and a ps3 and now they're choosing one or the other. that doesn't explain declines in software sales though.

i'd say this is more akin to the ps2 when it was basically the de facto video game platform of its time, although the xb1 is going to wind up doing a lot better than the original xbox. the problem is that the overall base seems a lot smaller now. it's good for sony though.

 

[open_mouth_]

what's XB1 sold-through now at (estimated)? 15 mil? 16? PS4 being 2:1 against XB1 at this point is something I think no one could have predicted. What a botch-up lol

 

[Chobel]

Good sales for PS4. Were there any salty posts BTW?

 

[NoMoreTrolls]

Good sales for PS4. Were there any salty posts BTW?

I'd say less than the usual amount of "don't understand" and "no games" posts.

 

[RexNovis]

Good sales for PS4. Were there any salty posts BTW?

You should check out the guy claiming The Order 1886 had "spectacular hype" and is the same sort of profile of game release as Street Fighter 5. That was a fun one.

Edit: The magic starts here

I don't think SF is higher profile than The Order, which was hyped to the moon and back.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

Good sales for PS4. Were there any salty posts BTW?

Yeah, it got started around the first or second page, actually. They aren't wasting time anymore.

 

[Pathfinder]

You should check out the guy claiming The Order 1886 had "spectacular hype" and is the same sort of profile of game release as Street Fighter 5. That was a fun one.

Edit: The magic starts here

Geez, you're pretty vindictive. I can tell you take these things very personally.

 

[Fat4all]

Geez, you're pretty vindictive. I can tell you take these things very personally.

It was a ridiculous statement that he defended for about 3 pages.

 

[Bastables]

Geez, you're pretty vindictive. I can tell you take these things very personally.

Wow you're pretty passive aggressive.

 

[Rymuth]

Geez, you're pretty vindictive. I can tell you take these things very personally.

It was a pretty obvious attempt at thread derailing and 'people living in glass houses', etc etc.

 

[Get_craycray]

what's XB1 sold-through now at (estimated)? 15 mil? 16? PS4 being 2:1 against XB1 at this point is something I think no one could have predicted. What a botch-up lol

Yup, estimated sales for Xbox One are 15 million (according to this french article at least)

 

[Bitch Pudding]

Yup, estimated sales for Xbox One are 15 million (according to this french article at least)

That French article is as good as any other educated guess on XBOX sales. Fact is, it's currently a number which is not published by MS. The ratio was 2:1 in the past and we have actually no reason to believe that this ratio significantly changed in the last couple of month. So, yes, it's very likely somewhere between 14-16 million but right now all we know is MAUs. Which is surely a much better business KPI than miles driven in Forza 6 btw.

 

[Unknown Soldier]

That French article is as good as any other educated guess on XBOX sales. Fact is, it's currently a number which is not published by MS. The ratio was 2:1 in the past and we have actually no reason to believe that this ratio significantly changed in the last couple of month. So, yes, it's very likely somewhere between 14-16 million but right now all we know is MAUs. Which is surely a much better business KPI than miles driven in Forza 6 btw.

I always thought number of zombies killed in Dead Rising was the de-facto measure of success in console launches

 

[AmethystEnd]

I always thought number of zombies killed in Dead Rising was the de-facto measure of success in console launches

Then Sony's got some catching up to do.

 

[Pathfinder]

Wow you're pretty passive aggressive.

I think you might want to look up what passive aggressive means...

 

[TBiddy]

It was a pretty obvious attempt at thread derailing and 'people living in glass houses', etc etc.

No it wasn't. I made a post and people decided to focus on ONE sentence of it, instead of the rest of the post, which was about the lineup next year compared to this year.

But yeah, RexNovis seems to be really focused on this. Probably due to an earlier run-in we had, I guess.