• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

November 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 8th

Fat4all

Banned
Did Sony say anything about BF sales at the PSX event?? I believe I read some speculation in here that they may say something as part of the presentation.

Nothing during the conference, I don't think.

[*] A price drop on the Halo bundle to $299 - I feel like this would risk pissing off the hardcore halo fans who bought the bundle already but seeing as they halted the cost of the collectors edition after less than a month I could see this happening

There's no way they make the Halo 5 limited bundle $299. If anything they introduce a new bundle at $299 instead that includes a non-limited console and a regular version of the game.
 

Elios83

Member
Did Sony say anything about BF sales at the PSX event?? I believe I read some speculation in here that they may say something as part of the presentation.

No they don't care.
At this point they only announce worldwide milestones, next one might be 35m in early January.
And if they win November they'll say they have won on Twitter next week :p
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Amazon December monthly finally up:

#1 / WIU: Mario Kart 8 ( o_O )
#11 / PS4: Star Wars Battlefront
#16 / PS4: Uncharted The Nathan Drake collection
#39 / XB1: Gears of War Ultimate
#40 / XB1: Holidays bundle
#61 / XB1 + Kinect
#90 / 3DS XL
#97 / XB1 Elite

Update:

#1 / WIU: Mario Kart 8 (—)
#14 / PS4: Star Wars Battlefront (↓3)
#21 / PS4: Uncharted the Nathan Drake collection (↓5)
#23 / XB1: Gears of War Ultimate edition (↑16)
#46 / XB1: Holidays bundle (↓6)
#87 / 3DS XL (↑3)
#95 / XB1 + Kinect (↓34)
 

Elandyll

Banned
When was the WiiU ever at #1 in the hourly? This is weird because I check the rankings fairly often and it seemed to me that the PS4 UC bundle practically never left the top spot since BF.
 
When was the WiiU ever at #1 in the hourly? This is weird because I check the rankings fairly often and it seemed to me that the PS4 UC bundle practically never left the top spot since BF.

I was about to say that, I never saw the WiiU placing above the ps4 in the hourly chart.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
WiiU: 2 million.

I starting to believe 1 million is seriusly possible ( December NPD, not November)

When was the WiiU ever at #1 in the hourly? This is weird because I check the rankings fairly often and it seemed to me that the PS4 UC bundle practically never left the top spot since BF.

That's true, i really have no idea.
I know Amazon hourly is not accurate, but if ALL time Uncharted bundle was over all other bundle, i mean, how is possible is not even in TOP 20?

Also, forget hourly. We have the first week of track, and this show PS4 at #1.
Wii U is close though...
http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestseller...es/ref=zg_bsar_videogames_pg_1?ie=UTF8&pg=1#1
 

RexNovis

Banned
Any news from MS in whatever holiday promotion they're doing? Figured it might have been drowned out by the onslaught of PSX news.
 

Elandyll

Banned
I starting to believe 1 million is seriusly possible ( December NPD, not November)



That's true, i really have no idea.
I know Amazon hourly is not accurate, but if ALL time Uncharted bundle was over all other bundle, i mean, how is possible is not even in TOP 20?

Also, forget hourly. We have the first week of track, and this show PS4 at #1.
Wii U is close though...
http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestseller...es/ref=zg_bsar_videogames_pg_1?ie=UTF8&pg=1#1
Yeah, sorry Tolu, but something's borked, and it's probably the monthly. :(
 
Actually yes I'm fairly sure the US does have tariffs for electronics. I think I read that they have been reduced a few times in the past 10 years at the behest of companies like Apple and Amazon.

I have no idea what cost is associated with shipping but, all factors considered, I could see consoles being a bit more expensive to ship and sell in the US than in Japan when they actually manufacture many of the consoles sold in Japan in Japan.
Right on. You don't happen to know what the tariffs are, do you? All I was able to find that the ITA just decided to phase them out by 2018, but I don't know what they're at now. So I suppose tariffs could be significant, but I've never really heard them come up in distribution costs before*, so I dunno. Anyway, they can load almost 2000 PS4s in a 40' container, and it only cost a few grand to ship one from China to the US or EU, so shipping costs are pretty inconsequential. Less than $2/unit, and probably closer to $1.

*Edit: Oh, except for those crazy taxes they have in Brazil.


When they say "sales at retail" were up, does this include online channels like amazon?
Just asking because I find the addition of "at retail" strange for console sales.
I'm guessing they mean as opposed to "sales at the factory." So basically, they mean sell-through rather than sell-in.


Over 615,000.

EDIT: We have >615,000 because we know XB1 sold at least 750k ( 360 in 2012), and the sales are increased by 22%, so: 615,000 x 1.22 = 750,300
We don't know that. It wasn't the #2 Black Friday Week for an XBox console in terms of units. It was the #2 Black Friday Week for the XBox family in terms of revenue, in the US. Read it again. Three factors contributed to it being the #2 week for XBox revenue; strong game sales in the XBox Store, an increase in Gold subscriptions, and an increase in US Bone sales.
 
Well it looks like the 299.99 PS4 bundles are rolling out online with no Xbox One counter-promotion. Whatever Microsoft has planned, they are probably going to want to do it soon.
 

RexNovis

Banned
Right on. You don't happen to know what the tariffs are, do you? All I was able to find that the ITA just decided to phase them out by 2018, but I don't know what they're at now. So I suppose tariffs could be significant, but I've never really heard them come up in distribution costs before*, so I dunno. Anyway, they can load almost 2000 PS4s in a 40' container, and it only cost a few grand to ship one from China to the US or EU, so shipping costs are pretty inconsequential. Less than $2/unit, and probably closer to $1.

*Edit: Oh, except for those crazy taxes they have in Brazil.

I actually have no idea what the tariffs are I just know they do exist. I'd imagine they are fairly minor but every little bit adds up so like I said I can see the consoles being sold in Japan costing a smidgen less to sell then the ones they sell in stateside.


We don't know that. It wasn't the #2 Black Friday Week for an XBox console in terms of units. It was the #2 Black Friday Week for the XBox family in terms of revenue, in the US. Read it again. Three factors contributed to it being the #2 week for XBox revenue; strong game sales in the XBox Store, an increase in Gold subscriptions, and an increase in US Bone sales.

Huh? They said

MS said:
Xbox One console sales at retail were up 22 percent over the same period last year, making it the second biggest Black Friday week in 15 years of Xbox history in the U.S.

So given the syntax it makes since that "biggest" would refer to the previously mentioned metric of console sales. Unless they are practicing some syntactical sorcery that I'm hitherto unaware of. Even still, an increase of 22% on BF week is nothing to sneeze at especially given the crazy sales they had fir the month last year. I think they'll be down YoY due to weaker performance during the rest of the month though.
 

Tubie

Member
Well it looks like the 299.99 PS4 bundles are rolling out online with no Xbox One counter-promotion. Whatever Microsoft has planned, they are probably going to want to do it soon.

Yea they need this "hard counter" out right now.

It seems this Sony deal really took them by surprise.
 
I actually have no idea what the tariffs are I just know they do exist. I'd imagine they are fairly minor but every little bit adds up so like I said I can see the consoles being sold in Japan costing a smidgen less to sell then the ones they sell in stateside.
Fair enough.

Huh? They said

So given the syntax it makes since that "biggest" would refer to the previously mentioned metric of console sales. Unless they are practicing some syntactical sorcery that I'm hitherto unaware of. Even still, an increase of 22% on BF week is nothing to sneeze at especially given the crazy sales they had fir the month last year. I think they'll be down YoY due to weaker performance during the rest of the month though.
You've confused yourself by cutting off the beginning of the sentence. He lists three factors that contributed to this being the second-biggest week for the XBox brand in the US. "Worldwide Xbox Black Friday sales in the Xbox Store broke records with an increase of 57 percent across Xbox One and Xbox 360, global Xbox Live Gold subscriptions were up over 40 percent, and U.S. Xbox One console sales at retail were up 22 percent over the same period last year, making it the second biggest Black Friday week in 15 years of Xbox history in the U.S." See how it's all one sentence? A, B, and C, caused D.

"Concession sales were up 60%, season ticket sales were up 23%, and sales of sunglasses doubled, making this the biggest opening day in Six Flags history!" They didn't say sunglasses just became their best-selling souvenir of all time; they said the revenue from the increased sunglasses sales helped them break the previous revenue record, along with the sodas and season tickets.

"making [last week] the second biggest Black Friday week in 15 years of Xbox history in the U.S." That was the result; #2 week ever in the US. Three causes; lots of revenue from the XBox Store, lots of revenue from Gold, and lots of Bone sales in the US. It's clear that all three factors contributed revenue, and that revenue is what's being used to gauge the "size" of the week. Not unit sales of a particular console. The increase in unit sales caused an increase in revenue, which, when combined with the increased revenue from the other two sources, gave them their second-highest grossing Black Friday Week, in the US. Presumably worldwide, their revenues for the week were third-best or worse.
 
Yea they need this "hard counter" out right now.

It seems this Sony deal really took them by surprise.

Sounds like, at the very least, that the MS Store is selling Black Ops III and Battlefront at half off.

This may be their counter, deeply discount both of Sony's promotion games, but that feels a little weak... heck, Destiny and Batman were free for Xbox1 and PS4 still cleaned house. Maybe something else?
 

RexNovis

Banned
You've confused yourself by cutting off the beginning of the sentence. He lists three factors that contributed to this being the second-biggest week for the XBox brand in the US. "Worldwide Xbox Black Friday sales in the Xbox Store broke records with an increase of 57 percent across Xbox One and Xbox 360, global Xbox Live Gold subscriptions were up over 40 percent, and U.S. Xbox One console sales at retail were up 22 percent over the same period last year, making it the second biggest Black Friday week in 15 years of Xbox history in the U.S." See how it's all one sentence? A, B, and C, caused D.

"Concession sales were up 60%, season ticket sales were up 23%, and sales of sunglasses doubled, making this the biggest opening day in Six Flags history!" They didn't say sunglasses just became their best-selling souvenir of all time; they said the revenue from the increased sunglasses sales helped them break the previous revenue record, along with the sodas and season tickets.

"making [last week] the second biggest Black Friday week in 15 years of Xbox history in the U.S." That was the result; #2 week ever in the US. Three causes; lots of revenue from the XBox Store, lots of revenue from Gold, and lots of Bone sales in the US. It's clear that all three factors contributed revenue, and that revenue is what's being used to gauge the "size" of the week. Not unit sales of a particular console. The increase in unit sales caused an increase in revenue, which, when combined with the increased revenue from the other two sources, gave them their second-highest grossing Black Friday Week, in the US. Presumably worldwide, their revenues for the week were third-best or worse.

Oh my God you're right! I totally read the period at the end of "U.S." as the end of a sentence for some reason. Holy shit! I can't believe I did that. I even reread the sentence like 4 times to make sure. What the hell? I feel like a dumbass.
 

Asd202

Member
Update:

#1 / WIU: Mario Kart 8 (—)
#14 / PS4: Star Wars Battlefront (↓3)
#21 / PS4: Uncharted the Nathan Drake collection (↓5)
#23 / XB1: Gears of War Ultimate edition (↑16)
#46 / XB1: Holidays bundle (↓6)
#87 / 3DS XL (↑3)
#95 / XB1 + Kinect (↓34)

People waiting for the price drop
to $250
 

Welfare

Member
We don't know that. It wasn't the #2 Black Friday Week for an XBox console in terms of units. It was the #2 Black Friday Week for the XBox family in terms of revenue, in the US. Read it again. Three factors contributed to it being the #2 week for XBox revenue; strong game sales in the XBox Store, an increase in Gold subscriptions, and an increase in US Bone sales.

Hardware sales increased by 22% YOY in Black Friday week. We know they sold 1.23m last November. Black Friday week accounts for ~50% of sales in November. If we look at the months that MS gave out BF numbers (2011 and 2012):

November 2011: Whole month [1.7m] | BF week [960k] | % of BF for whole month [56.5%]

November 2012: Whole month [1.26m] | BF week [750k] | % of BF for whole month [59.5%]

Just going with a base 50% of November, the Xbox One would've done 615k during Black Friday week of 2014. I do not see why it should be any lower than 50%, especially when the deals last year were insane, so if anything, 50% is just a low ball.

>615k x 1.22 = >750k

I think it is safe to assume in terms of units of consoles sold, this was the second biggest Black Friday for Xbox.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Black Friday share is on rise all years.
I believe we will See >60% XB1 Sales easy during BF week, maybe ~65% or ~70%.
This Black Friday was pretty strong, since they maked a pricedrop during BF week.
 

gtj1092

Member
Not sure what the MS PR means but the up 22% is very clear and would I think make X1 sales the second highest ever.

Anyway it's NPD week let the madness begin.
 

allan-bh

Member
Oh my God you're right! I totally read the period at the end of "U.S." as the end of a sentence for some reason. Holy shit! I can't believe I did that. I even reread the sentence like 4 times to make sure. What the hell? I feel like a dumbass.

Points A and B are about worldwide market, only the point C directly connects to the conclusion (second biggest black friday week in USA).

I don't think you was wrong.
 

RexNovis

Banned
Points A and B are about worldwide market, only the point C directly connects to the conclusion (second biggest black friday week in USA).

I don't think you was wrong.

Eh. The structure of the sentence is bizarre. I could see it reading either way. Doesn't change the fact that I was reading it incorrectly at first by, for some unknown reason, reading the second period at the end of "U.S." as the end of a sentence. It didn't even register to me that it is one massive run on sentence. I don't really see a reason not to separate these points as their own distinct sentences unless they were somehow being treated as a function of the single sentence's conclusion. Not sure what to think of it at this point other than my mind was clearly playing tricks on me whilst reading that monstrosity of a sentence.
 

allan-bh

Member
Eh. The structure of the sentence is bizarre. I could see it reading either way. Doesn't change the fact that I was reading it incorrectly at first by, for some unknown reason, reading the second period at the end of "U.S." as the end of a sentence. It didn't even register to me that it is one massive run on sentence. I don't really see a reason not to separate these points as their own distinct sentences unless they were somehow being treated as a function of the single sentence's conclusion. Not sure what to think of it at this point other than my mind was clearly playing tricks on me whilst reading that monstrosity of a sentence.

We know that second biggest BF week for Xbox in terms of units was 750k in 2012 and we know that Xbox One sales increased 22% YoY on BF week.

Working on math with 1.23m in NPD Nov/14, makes sense that Xbox One sold more than 750k and had the second biggest BF week in Xbox history in terms of unit sales.

People sometimes doubt to much of Microsoft's PR. I know they love a spin, but in this case the math fits with the claim.
 

orochi91

Member
The date I heard was later but thats always subject to change

Later?

There are like 18 days left till Christmas, it doesn't seem like much time for any hard-cut to have a substantial role this month.

Especially since Sony just keeps plowing ahead with their marketing.
 
Sony's marketing from holiday 2014 compared to holiday 2015 is night and day. It is almost guaranteed for a PS4 commercial to pop up at least once when a program goes to commercial break.

I remember there were like 3 or 4 pretty quickly behind one another not too long ago.
 
Later?

There are like 18 days left till Christmas, it doesn't seem like much time for any hard-cut to have a substantial role this month.

Especially since Sony just keeps plowing ahead with their marketing.

I dont believe I ever implied this thing would cause the Xbox to outsell anything.

I said there is a counter. Which there is. I simply shared this that MS isn't sitting by doing nothing.
 
The date I heard was later but thats always subject to change



Yeah man, Sony going ham. Xbox too. Huge Holiday season fron what it appears.

Wow. Looks like they're will be a substantial gap in time before the XB1 reaches price parity again.

Edit: And thanks again for the info.
 
Top Bottom