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[Imru’ al-Qays]

That will be a pretty sizable market contraction then considering I see PS4 hitting only 100 -110 million units. I hope that is not the case and the gap is filled by one of these consoles.

How much did the PS2 sell within its generation again? I mean up to the PS3's launch in 2006.

 

[Beautiful Ninja]

I feel like Halo Wars 2 is gonna sell well on the PC. I remember a lot of people being disappointed that the first game wasn't on PC and that was Ensemble Studios last game.

Do we know if there's gonna be cross-play? I don't see why there wouldn't be.

RTS doesn't seem like a genre that's selling well in general, Starcraft's about the only big one left right? As for cross-play, would KB/M users be at a significant advantage on PC over Xbox One users? I haven't played Halo Wars and I know it's created with console in mind, so I'm not sure how much of an advantage KB/M would be.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

Things are just returning to "normal". If Sony isn't being their own worst enemy, they will lead the generation and the other two will pick at what is left.

 

[Bgamer90]

Are you really expecting an RTS spinoff to do big numbers? I'd be surprised if it did a million copies. Halo's name can only carry it so far and it's pretty clear no that the Halo name isn't what it used to be.

Yeah, I think Halo Wars will do okay but it won't be a big/major hit. Still part of a pretty niche genre.

The only known IP's MS has coming up are Crackdown and Gears, both of which are coming off bad installments and had to be rebooted.

Eh... It's not like the latest installments in both series were recent games. I think both games will do well as long as they don't release during a busy multi platform gaming period. Hopefully MS learned from Halo 5's launch.

After that MS is putting their hope in a bunch of new IP's and looking at the 360, I don't think I trust MS at all when it comes to fostering new IP growth.

I don't agree due to the simple fact that they can't rely on third party (marketing) deals like they could last gen. I think we will see a better focus on new IPs thought this gen for the brand in comparison to last gen.

I know Quantum Break is getting a lot of hype on internet forums since the makers of Alan Wake are behind it, but I don't think Remedy has the name recognition a lot of people here think they do.

I think a lot of the hype is simply due to the game looking good so far. Wouldn't be surprised if a large number of people interested in the game never played Alan Wake.

 

[Fat4all]

...and Remedy couldn't pull great numbers as an tentpole exclusive on a way stronger XBOX platform.

I remember standing in line for Alan Wake at a midnight launch event. I think I was one of three people there getting it. Everyone else was getting Red Dead Redemption.

SPOT-ON RELEASE, MICROSOFT!

 

[orochi91]

That will be a pretty sizable market contraction then considering I see PS4 hitting only 100 -110 million units. I hope that is not the case and the gap is filled by one of these consoles.

The PS4 will hit ~110 million by the time PS5 comes out, after which it will likely still continue selling since the price should be much lower than the X360/PS3 currently, due to less exotic hardware.

I expect the PS4 to be nearing 120 million by the time it's completely done, though this estimate is based on continuous growth in developing markets.

 

[small44]

How much did the PS2 sell within its generation again? I mean up to the PS3's launch in 2006.

They shipped 100 millions by 29 november 2005

http://www.scei.co.jp/corporate/release/pdf/051130e.pdf on the second page

 

[Sterok]

30-35 million seems way too low for the XB1. That would be around half of where I expect the 3DS to end up (65 millionish) when it still has lots of big games coming, even if multiplatform. I'm thinking 40-45 million, with 50 million not out of the question.

 

[Game4life]

The PS4 will hit ~110 million by the time PS5 comes out, after which it will likely still continue selling since the price should be much lower than the X360/PS3 currently, due to less exotic hardware.

I expect the PS4 to be nearing 120 million by the time it's completely done, though this estimate is based on continuous growth in developing markets.

120 + 40 for xbox one after discontinuation will still be a contraction considering previous gen was 90+ 90 approximately?

It is healthy but I was hoping there would be an expansion of the core market rather than just a good enough hold.

How much did the PS2 sell within its generation again? I mean up to the PS3's launch in 2006.

Around 108-110 I think?

 

[Beautiful Ninja]

120 + 40 for xbox one after discontinuation will still be a contraction considering previous gen was 90+ 90 approximately?

It is healthy but I was hoping there would be an expansion of the core market rather than just a good enough hold.

Is it really a contraction when the consoles will get replaced 2-3 years sooner than 360 and PS3 did? If PS4 is going to be around for 8 years as a main platform like 360 did, it could break PS2 records, but that's not happening.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

That will be a pretty sizable market contraction then considering I see PS4 hitting only 100 -110 million units. I hope that is not the case and the gap is filled by one of these consoles.

I don't see the gap getting filled .
What we are seeing is the consolidation of the home console market .
There is less reasons to own both and contraction coming from once big markets Japan for eg .

 

[Game4life]

Is it really a contraction when the consoles will get replaced 2-3 years sooner than 360 and PS3 did? If PS4 is going to be around for 8 years as a main platform like 360 did, it could break PS2 records, but that's not happening.

Good point. I forgot last gen had an elongated cycle. Yeah I guess it is not really a contraction then.

 

[orochi91]

120 + 40 for xbox one after discontinuation will still be a contraction considering previous gen was 90+ 90 approximately?

It is healthy but I was hoping there would be an expansion of the core market rather than just a good enough hold.

It all comes down to how developing markets perform.

Contractions in core markets (which are happening) may possibly be offset as developing markets pick up the slack.

If Japan was still home console centric, PS4 would've had a legit shot at closing in on the PS2.

If anything, those growing markets will probably play a huge role during next gen, where the PS5 would be the only one that legitimately stands to benefit. MS and Nintendo have done fuck-all to foster an international brand.

MS = US and UK

Nintendo = US and Japan

Sony = Everywhere.

 

[Nightengale]

Eh... It's not like the latest installments in both series were recent games. I think both games will do well as long as they don't release during a busy multi platform gaming period. Hopefully MS learned from Halo 5's launch.

The question is will they be able to get it out earlier?

Gears 4 is the tentpole game for MS next year. MS still pivots heavily on the holiday season, and they like having a tentpole franchise in fall. Not to mention the game will be in development by 2.5 years then, which is kinda the minimum amount of time needed to finish a quality AAA game. I don't think they can finish and release Gears 4 any earlier than October.

Crackdown has its MP beta during summer. Unless it's just a marketing beta, it still needs 2-3 months from beta to release... which will be... holidays.

Scalebound is already confirmed a holiday release.

The problem with games release is that 99% of the time, you can rarely have it out earlier than planned, only later than planned which in this case, delays them to 2017.

 

[orochi91]

Is it really a contraction when the consoles will get replaced 2-3 years sooner than 360 and PS3 did? If PS4 is going to be around for 8 years as a main platform like 360 did, it could break PS2 records, but that's not happening.

An excellent point.

 

[Fat4all]

Last gen the sales were around 90+90+101, yes?

Man, I wonder where the Wii U is gonna land before being discontinued. 15 million, maybe a little more?

Or less

 

[Beautiful Ninja]

The question is will they be able to get it out earlier?

Gears 4 is the tentpole game for MS next year. MS still pivots heavily on the holiday season, and they like having a tentpole franchise in fall. Not to mention the game will be in development by 2.5 years then, which is kinda the minimum amount of time needed to finish a quality AAA game. I don't think they can finish and release Gears 4 any earlier than October.

Crackdown has its MP beta during summer. Unless it's just a marketing beta, it still needs 2-3 months from beta to release... which will be... holidays.

Scalebound is already confirmed a holiday release.

The problem with games release is that 99% of the time, you can rarely have it out earlier than planned, only later than planned which in this case, delays them to 2017.

Microsoft would be shooting themselves in the foot releasing all three of those in the holiday season. Scalebound already has to overcome the sales curse of being a game being developed by Platinum. It would be at best the #3 Xbox One exclusive in that group and would also have to compete against the latest multiplatform titles like the next CoD and AC.

 

[EdReedFan20]

I don't think the PS4 needs to get all that slimmer, but a new design is always a nice momentum boost. I'd pick up my 21st PS4 by then, or perhaps I'd have that one already and this would be 22 or 23. Perhaps if PS4 wasn't my daughter, I'd be dating her.

I'm not sure it can get much slimmer. The PS4 is already close in size to the PS3 Super Slim. If they can manage to have two more iterations of PS4 that have as significant a size reduction as PS3 did, the PS4 Super Slim would be absolutely tiny! I bet one thing they'd do is remove the angular aspect of the system.

 

[Imru’ al-Qays]

Also important to note that not every lost console sale actually represents a contraction in the market, since at least some of those "missing" sales are attributable to people who own multiple consoles one gen and then only one the next. The market contracts if a household goes from 1 console to 0, but not if it goes from 2 to 1 or 3 to 2 or 3 to 1. This is pretty hard to judge accurately from the numbers we have available, but anecdotally there seem to have been a lot of dual-console ownership last gen.

It all comes down to how developing markets perform.

Contractions in core markets (which are happening) may possibly be offset as developing markets pick up the slack.

If Japan was still home console centric, PS4 would've had a legit shot at closing in on the PS2.

If anything, those growing markets will probably play a huge role during next gen, where the PS5 would be the only one that legitimately stands to benefit. MS and Nintendo have done fuck-all to foster an international brand.

MS = US and UK

Nintendo = US and Japan

Sony = Everywhere.

Absolutely. I think the PS4 will match the PS2 for "in-generation" sales, which is by far the most important metric. Whether the PS4 catches up to the PS2 in post-generation sales will depend on a lot of factors, but I think there's a very real possibility of it happening. And if it doesn't, part of the reason will hopefully be that the PS5 launches at a more reasonable price point than the PS3 did, which will have the effect of suppressing legacy console sales.

 

[Game4life]

Also important to note that not every lost console sale actually represents a contraction in the market, since at least some of those "missing" sales are attributable to people who own multiple consoles one gen and then only one the next. The market contracts if a household goes from 1 console to 0, but not if it goes from 2 to 1 or 3 to 2 or 3 to 1. This is pretty hard to judge accurately from the numbers we have available, but anecdotally there seems to have been a lot of dual-console ownership last gen.

That is still a contraction though in the sense people are buying less of the product.

 

[Beautiful Ninja]

I'm not sure it can get much slimmer. The PS4 is already close in size to the PS3 Super Slim. If they can manage to have two more iterations of PS4 that have as significant a size reduction as PS3 did, the PS4 Super Slim would be absolutely tiny! I bet one thing they'd do is remove the angular aspect of the system.

There's some room to shrink with the PS4, when 16nm Finfet based SoC's come out the console should drop in power consumption. Put in a smaller PSU and a redesigned heatspreader and that should drop some space.

 

[Nightengale]

Microsoft would be shooting themselves in the foot releasing all three of those in the holiday season. Scalebound already has to overcome the sales curse of being a game being developed by Platinum. It would be at best the #3 Xbox One exclusive in that group and would also have to compete against the latest multiplatform titles like the next CoD and AC.

Scalebound is an action JRPG, so probably less competition from CoD and AC.

Sales curse competition for Scalebound next year is the strong likeliness that it'll also be FFXV and Mass Effect : Andromeda season.

And well, the fact that it's a JRPG on Xbox.

 

[Imru’ al-Qays]

That is still a contraction though in the sense people are buying less of the product.

Not really. The main point of selling a video game console isn't to make a profit on the hardware, it's to make a profit on licensing and fees. It's a contraction that doesn't mean anything with regard to the overall health of the market, which is why we need to make an effort to account for it.

 

[orochi91]

That is still a contraction though in the sense people are buying less of the product.

Contractions are happening, with regards to hardware.

In core markets, it is already happening.

Next gen will possibly see the reverse as developing markets pick up the slack.

 

[EdReedFan20]

I agree. The Xbox One is doing much better in America than the original Xbox did and the system should get more than four years of solid support.

You also have to remember that the XBOX (the original) was expensive to produce (as it was a beast of a console for its day) and was simply not profitable for Microsoft. It didn't matter to them how much they lost, because they wanted to establish a brand, which they most certainly did. It paved the way for them to release the 360. However, very soon after the launch of the 360 (which was far more cheaper to produce), they dropped the original console. It served its purpose for Microsoft. Unfortunately, in an effort to go cheaper, they made some choices with the 360 that led to the RROD issue, but once they solved that with revisions, the 360 was able to be a long lasting console. XB1 was made even sturdier than 360 (thanks to its oversized unit and external PSU- overheating is definitely not a concern). I think both the 360 and XB1 will have PlayStation-like support (10+ years). The 360 already does (it just turned 10 last month!).

 

[Bgamer90]

The question is will they be able to get it out earlier?

Gears 4 is the tentpole game for MS next year. MS still pivots heavily on the holiday season, and they like having a tentpole franchise in fall. Not to mention the game will be in development by 2.5 years then, which is kinda the minimum amount of time needed to finish a quality AAA game. I don't think they can finish and release Gears 4 any earlier than October.

Crackdown has its MP beta during summer. Unless it's just a marketing beta, it still needs 2-3 months from beta to release... which will be... holidays.

Scalebound is already confirmed a holiday release.

The problem with games release is that 99% of the time, you can rarely have it out earlier than planned, only later than planned which in this case, delays them to 2017.

Gears will definitely be a Fall game but I would be surprised to see it release in late October or early November.

September or early Cotober would be better and would still give MS the chance to push the game during the Holiday shopping season since it would still be a recent release. Same for Crackdown.

Scalebound should be a Spring or Summer game for the best chance to do well at launch. Not sure how the game will do either way though. I'm looking forward to it but I can't see it being a big hit at all -- I felt the same way when it came to Sunset Overdrive too.

 

[Imru’ al-Qays]

You also have to remember that the XBOX (the original) was expensive to produce (as it was a beast of a console for its day) and was simply not profitable for Microsoft. It didn't matter to them how much they lost, because they wanted to establish a brand, which they most certainly did. It paved the way for them to release the 360. However, very soon after the launch of the 360 (which was far more cheaper to produce), they dropped the original console. It served its purpose for Microsoft. Unfortunately, in an effort to go cheaper, they made some choices with the 360 that led to the RROD issue, but once they solved that with revisions, the 360 was able to be a long lasting console. XB1 was made even sturdier than 360 (thanks to its oversized unit and external PSU- overheating is definitely not a concern). I think both the 360 and XB1 will have PlayStation-like support (10+ years).

It would certainly be interesting to see both of the major players actively competing in the legacy/developing market in the post-gen.

Scalebound should be a Spring or Summer game. Not sure how the game will do.

Summer more so than spring, I'd say. Seems to me that Scalebound's closest competitor with regard to target audience is actually Dark Souls 3.

 

[EdReedFan20]

There's some room to shrink with the PS4, when 16nm Finfet based SoC's come out the console should drop in power consumption. Put in a smaller PSU and a redesigned heatspreader and that should drop some space.

Yeah, they'll definitely shrink it, just not proportionally to what they did with PS3.

 

[orochi91]

Scalebound should be a Spring or Summer game. Not sure how the game will do.

It will bomb and in spectacular fashion too.

A JRPG exclusive to a gaming brand that has no affinity for the genre is a terrible mistake.

If it was on PC as well, then may be it would have a shot at pulling in some decent numbers.

 

[Nightengale]

September or early Cotober would be better and would still give MS the chance to push the game during the Holiday shopping season since it would still be a recent release. Same for Crackdown.

I think September is reserved for [most likely, almost assuredly] Forza Horizon 3.

Because of the way MS arranges its portfolio, if we assume they don't want too much overlap ( thus why Forza, Halo, and ROTR were decently spaced between each other ), there's not too much of wiggle room for MS.

Especially if we think about how the positioning works as a console seller, where any date after BF is probably a no-go for them.

 

[kadotsu]

Wasn't Scalebound confirmed to be Q4 2016 at the earliest?

 

[Fat4all]

XB1 was made even sturdier than 360 (thanks to its oversized unit and external PSU). I think both the 360 and XB1 will have PlayStation-like support (10+ years).

10 year support for Xbox One?

Maaaaaaaaybe, dunno if I'd go that far. I mean, this year the 360 got Rise of the Tomb Raider, which is the last sort of support I think the 360 will get game wise from MS in any major way, so it's certainly possible. But I think 7-8 years might be the tops they give the Xbone before all their attention is given to their next platform.

I'm guessing new console launching in 2018-19 and support for the Xbox One ending in 2020, 2021 at the latest.

 

[Nightengale]

Wasn't Scalebound confirmed to be Q4 2016 at the earliest?

That's the tentative release window.

They never said it's the earliest, it's just that it's natural to assume that games will almost definitely either hit their release window... or it'll get delayed for later.

Rarely do games get moved ahead of their release window by 2-3 months, if ever.

 

[Game4life]

Not really. The main point of selling a video game console isn't to make a profit on the hardware, it's to make a profit on licensing and fees. It's a contraction that doesn't mean anything with regard to the overall health of the market, which is why we need to make an effort to account for it.

That is a fair point

Contractions are happening, with regards to hardware.

In core markets, it is already happening.

Next gen will possibly see the reverse as developing markets pick up the slack.

I really hope the bolded becomes true soon. Developing markets next gen hopefully make up for the contraction in Japan and other historically big game markets.

 

[Bgamer90]

It will bomb and in spectacular fashion too.

A JRPG exclusive to a gaming brand that has no affinity for the genre is a terrible mistake.

Eh, I don't view it as a mistake. Would rather see them try to bring more genres on to the system instead of not trying at all.

I agree though in terms of how the game will probably do.

 

[Square2015]

US sales for Xbox One are around 2/3 of the system's overall sales so I agree that it the system should be close to 16 million right now.

Welcome back

Spoiler

(that was a long ban)

 

[Fat4all]

Rarely do games get moved ahead of their release window by 2-3 months, if ever.

If there's one studio that could do that and it wouldn't surprise me, it would be PlatinumGames tho.

They always seem to be on top of shit.

 

[Bgamer90]

Welcome back

Spoiler

(that was a long ban)

I've been back for a while but thanks anyway (haha).

 

[Jigorath]

It will bomb and in spectacular fashion too.

A JRPG exclusive to a gaming brand that has no affinity for the genre is a terrible mistake.

If it was on PC as well, then may be it would have a shot at pulling in some decent numbers.

A platform holder's job is to provide a diverse lineup of 1st party software to entice buyers. Not every game needs to be a smash success for them. That's why Nintendo greenlit surefire flops like Bayo 2 or Wonderful Whatever. Or why Sony didn't just cut their losses and cancelled TLG years ago.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

A platform holder's job is to provide a diverse lineup of 1st party software to entice buyers. Not every game needs to be a smash success for them. That's why Nintendo greenlit surefire flops like Bayo 2 or Wonderful Whatever. Or why Sony didn't just cut their losses and cancelled TLG years ago.

Yeah, Shuhei Yoshida outright said roughly 4 of every 10 PS titles make a profit. It isn't only about what is best business wise. It is about diversifying the product and creating an image that more and more people can (potentially) get behind.

With that being said, I do think Scalebound will perform particularly poor commercially. Xbox+JRPG+Platinum = ........

 

[newjeruse]

Yeah, Shuhei Yoshida outright said roughly 4 of every 10 PS titles make a profit. It isn't only about what is best business wise. It is about diversifying the product and creating an image that more and more people can (potentially) get behind.

When did he say that, out of curiosity?

 

[orochi91]

A platform holder's job is to provide a diverse lineup of 1st party software to entice buyers. Not every game needs to be a smash success for them. That's why Nintendo greenlit surefire flops like Bayo 2 or Wonderful Whatever. Or why Sony didn't just cut their losses and cancelled TLG years ago.

But why a JRPG?

If the goal is to diversify your lineup, why not fund a Western RPG, since that would be something that both diversifies your 1st-party portfolio AND stands to have a shot at selling well.

OR better yet, why not try to revive the JRPG IPs they already own?

It just doesn't make sense to me, especially since they recently canned that Japanese game, Phantom Dust remake/sequel, and that title actually had an established fan base...

 

[Square2015]

Gosh, when you look at that graph the WiiU sales look tragic, even if not compared to the PS4/X1... Under 100k for the first eight months out of the launch period. There's no wonder that support for the system has dried up and Nintendo is pushing forward with the NX so quickly.

It was pretty much following the DC pattern, it's only been able to surpass it that it has been supported longer.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

When did he say that, out of curiosity?

Click.

 

[Nightengale]

When did he say that, out of curiosity?

Gamelab 2014 at Barcelona.

Exact quote :

When you look at what we do, managing studios and managing funds, that’s essentially what we do: to look for talent and support talent, because at the end of the day it’s the people that create amazing things, and it’s the creative team that makes breakthroughs.

It’s a hit-driven business. We look at our financial results of the titles, and probably three or four out of ten make money, and maybe one or two make all the money to cover the cost of the others titles. So we have to be able to maintain that hit ratio at a certain level to be able to continue in the business, so we always try to find out and support and help grow the talent. That’s the most important work that I believe myself and some of my management team at worldwide studios are doing.

There are lots of opportunities. There are so many projects that we want to do, and especially there are so many different techs, platforms and or devices that we can release games, but we have finite resources and budget, we have to make selection choices.

One of the things we always come back to when we’re looking at five potential projects is that we choose the team we believe in when we start working with a new team. That’s really really important.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

But why a JRPG?

If the goal is to diversify your lineup, why not fund a Western RPG, since that would be something that both diversifies your 1st-party portfolio AND stands to have a shot at selling well.

OR better yet, why not try to revive the JRPG IPs they already own?

It just doesn't make sense to me, especially since they recently canned that Japanese game, Phantom Dust, and that title actually had an established fan base...

They are trying to give Scalebound a western vibe with certain elements. I guess it also depends on who is available to work with to make the game. As far as we know, MS' main studios aren't making open world RPGs. So, it may be more of a "we will take what we can get" sort of thing.

 

[Nightengale]

But why a JRPG?

If the goal is to diversify your lineup, why not fund a Western RPG, since that would be something that both diversifies your 1st-party portfolio AND stands to have a shot at selling well.

OR better yet, why not try to revive the JRPG IPs they already own?

It just doesn't make sense to me, especially since they recently canned that Japanese game, Phantom Dust, and that title actually had an established fan base...

This game was probably greenlit before XB1 even launched.

Or even if it was greenlit after XB1 launched, the situation then vs the situation now is night and day in terms of the realisation of how dreadful the consumer response is to Japanese content.

 

[Mory Dunz]

Eh, I don't view it as a mistake. Would rather see them try to bring more genres on to the system instead of not trying at all.

I agree though in terms of how the game will probably do.

I never really noticed that 360 got an effload of JRPGs early last gen. I hadn't even heard of like 3 or more of them.

Can't say they didn't try.

 

[Nightengale]

I never really noticed that 360 got an effload of JRPGs early last gen. I hadn't even heard of like 3 or more of them.

Can't say they didn't try.

Most of them ended up multiplatform after a year or two, so it doesn't stick in your mind that they were exclusives right now in hindsight.

So people really only remember Blue Dragon, Lost Oddysey, Last Remnant and Vesperia. and the latter are mainly due to devs not even bothering to release it on PS3 anymore.

 

[TheStruggler]

late to the game but because of this gif, sony be like