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Theres Nothing Xbox Can Do to Close Gap Between PS4, Says Pachter
- Thread starter Cow Goes Moo
- Start date
wouldn't even have mattered at launch
VincentMatts
Member
Captain obvious back at work.
Not to mention the PS3 did eventually outsell the 360 in long term sales.
Xbox simply can't catch up this gen, the only reason why it succeeded at capturing a audience last gen was because it had an early start, and so when someone wanted to play a game everyone already owned a Xbox. This was also during a time when Wi-Fi and routers boomed so everyone began playing online because it was more convenient to play then ever before.
Xbox 360 was just released at the right time with the right focus for it's release. While everyone else was playing catch up to the online features Xbox offered.
None of that mattered to me though because I knew Sony would catch up, but in the meantime I preferred single player games because the only big online multiplayer games were 1st person shooters and I was never interested in the genre until Portal.
Xbox simply can't catch up this gen, the only reason why it succeeded at capturing a audience last gen was because it had an early start, and so when someone wanted to play a game everyone already owned a Xbox. This was also during a time when Wi-Fi and routers boomed so everyone began playing online because it was more convenient to play then ever before.
Xbox 360 was just released at the right time with the right focus for it's release. While everyone else was playing catch up to the online features Xbox offered.
None of that mattered to me though because I knew Sony would catch up, but in the meantime I preferred single player games because the only big online multiplayer games were 1st person shooters and I was never interested in the genre until Portal.
serversurfer
Member
Neuromancer
Member
AmaterasuOni
Banned
But PS4 has no games!
I really think that the reason MS keep releasing 'exclusives' on both Xbox ad PC (usually with a delay) is because it has a negligible impact on console sales for them but it can provide the dev with much needed extra exposure if they go console exclusive.
I can assure you that most people looking to get Tomb Raider at the end of Jan on PC likely weren't interested enough to plop down $350 on an Xbox One. At the end of the day, it benefits the dev infinitely more than MS and likely helps sweeten the relationship.
No way there's enough overlap between high-end PC gamers and those who want to buy an Xbox One. I'll likely end up getting one to go with my PS4 eventually, but not until it's $199 or less.
Tivor Tontomo
Member
Not sure what your talking about.
currently ps4 35.9, xbox possible 18 mill at minimum.
is that not less than 2-1? Maybe my communication didnt seem clear, but xbox has been avoiding a 2-1 ratio for awhile now, this time barely. Which is what meant. That may change though now that its preseason and sfv is coming.
Estimates for xbox one and the sales releases from sony for Ps4 seem to have the ratio always close to 2-1 without actually being 2-1.
Tivor Tontomo
Member
I have no clue why theres confusion with my post. The current sales has XB selling over the 360, the WW ratio for ps4 and xb is just short of 2-1 if 18 mill is a valid estimate. The xbox one has no lead in the us or uk, which means those countries everyone thinks the xo is doing worse than the 360 in by a large margin are making up a decent percentage of that 18 mill.
I mean, everyone seems to think the 360 was bigger than it was rotw. No, that was the market that had no momentum for the 360 and helped the ps3 catch up.
CrispyBoar
Banned
Maybe in the U.S., they will, but for everywhere else, fat chance.
AdventureRacing
Member
I agree that it will be lucky to sell even half of the PS4 when all is said and done. I also think it won't be neatly as easy to turn things around. I see so often people pointing to Sony as an example of how to turn things around. The problem is MS doesn't have the same advantages that Sony had. They don't have a history of two 100 million plus selling consoles. They also have no presence in most markets around the world.
Sony were simply returning to their former position as top dog. That's why they were able to turn things around so quickly. Even if MS made all those same moves it won't make a dent in Sonys position. Playstation is the entrenched brand and MS is trying to muscle in. Just like in other markets the new player is the one who needs to do a lot more to make any headway.
The 360 didn't sell very much initially. It had a long life span and had a large boost from kinect mid life cycle. If the xbone actually ends
up selling 80 million plus like the 360 im sure everyone would say that's a success. Problem is it won't end up anywhere near that.
Sony were simply returning to their former position as top dog. That's why they were able to turn things around so quickly. Even if MS made all those same moves it won't make a dent in Sonys position. Playstation is the entrenched brand and MS is trying to muscle in. Just like in other markets the new player is the one who needs to do a lot more to make any headway.
The 360 didn't sell very much initially. It had a long life span and had a large boost from kinect mid life cycle. If the xbone actually ends
up selling 80 million plus like the 360 im sure everyone would say that's a success. Problem is it won't end up anywhere near that.
Super Wario
Banned
Most people I know buy new consoles to play new games.
As well as the Vita....
There seems to be a correlation with backwards compatibility and failure. Or maybe it's irrelevant...
boredandlazy
Member
Edit: nevermind... I can't be bothered.
Or what the original quote you responded to was talking about, for that matter.
Emphasis mine. Wondering where you got your numbers on those areas from.
ethomaz
Banned
He is talking about you claiming Xbone and 360 having the same ratio in EU countries like Germany, France, etc.
Sorry but you are just creating false claims here.
He was asked the question specifically for fucks sake
Similar to his claim that "the next generation most likely will be in 2019".
Like..no shit. It doesn't make you a prophet to regurgitate what the common sentiment is. Its annoying specifically because as much as he can hang onto common opinions, he gets a lot more wrong.
Like..no shit. It doesn't make you a prophet to regurgitate what the common sentiment is. Its annoying specifically because as much as he can hang onto common opinions, he gets a lot more wrong.
SolidAwesome
Banned
this is a very cold stab in the back bump. lol
Tivor Tontomo
Member
I never said that.
The only post I made said the ratios where the same and that was world wide. The original post didint have anything in it for you to come up with the conclusion you did, looking back, it was a very cague post at that.
That is true, the estimates for the Xbox One has always been just short of 2 to 1` that I have seen.
Even recently, we have a supposed 18 million number and we have 35.9 ps4s, again, jsut short of 2 to 1.
My point of saying that was WW, while losing where the 36o was winning, the Xbox One is still selling according to MS, more than the 36o in the same time frame. SO, assuming that the Xbox One is doing worse in nordic countries seems odd. IMO.
The only person who made an actual claim word for word was Raist, period. Which Bish quoted above.
But of course I may have communicated poorly and caused confusion. in fact, the post I responded to wasnt very clear not that I look. So hopefully that clears things up,
to make things more clear, I was mainly responding to this part of the quote
boredandlazy
Member
Well only he has access to numbers pulled from his own ass.
This is the post you chose to quote and respond to directly.
Seems pretty clear to me. Eh, whatever.
Tivor Tontomo
Member
It was this part I was mainly concentrating on
But to be honest, now that I look seems I wasnt really paying attention to what I was replying to.
Germany Hardware LTD through March 2015:
Germany LtD hardware sales (in million) from November 2013:
Lord Radik
Member
In the guys defense, he's doing a show, gratis, where he is asked questions that often require him to speculate. I've watched a good number of the shows the guy has done on Gametrailers and now on SIFTD and I don't think he takes his predictions as seriously as you do.
I don't take it seriously, that's why i'm irritated. Anyone can make some claims and put them out there for whatever reason. Nobody should be taking it serious.
Its more annoying because even when he says the things that make sense, its usually for the wrong reasons.
Like the claim highlighted in this thread was prefaced by saying that his basis for the argument was that the consoles are weak because "they struggle to do 1080p 30fps" and mobile phones and tablets are increasing at a huge rate, so Sony and MS will feel pressured to launch at a quicker rate.
Certainty not the fact that the consoles are actually profitable devices from the outset that have a clear path to quicker and easier reiteration in the next version based on their simple and off the shelf architecture, or that the 7th generation's lifecycle was abnormally long for console generations because of having to make back a portion of the profit blown on the loss leading hardware.
No, its because Sony and MS are chasing phones.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Not even a Pachter prediction can stop this train.
serversurfer
Member
Sorry, but this stuff is nothing like your original claim, and what Raist was responding to
This all stemmed from this post, mentioning the fact that MS had squandered what little WW popularity the 360 did manage to achieve. You responded to that by saying that Bone was really only down in US and UK, and that was because of the price, and said, "Every other country sans UK, is exactly the same as it was before, just the numbers aren't as big as before mostly do to how the market was." So you're pretty clearly claiming that MS hadn't lost any share from the 360 outside of US/UK, and the only reason they're selling fewer units is because fewer consoles are being sold.
Raist said their share was actually down a lot, particularly in Germany and the Nordic countries, and you said, no, they're the same.
Now you're saying that what you meant by that was PS4 wasn't gaining on the Bone, which still hasn't fallen any further behind than 2:1. I've no idea how you confused "Bone isn't doing nearly as well as 360 did" with "PS4 is increasing its lead," but in any case, your rebuttal of this imagined claim is pretty weak, because it basically amounts to, "If you assume PS4 still isn't 2:1, they're keeping pace!" (
"currently ps4 35.9, xbox possible 18 mill at minimum. is that not less than 2-1?"
joecanada
Member
Neither. Somehow Pachter will create a vacuum of bad predictions so vast that it will suck in all consoles and they will sell negative amounts.
RoadHazard
Gold Member
Just from personal experience of the Swedish gaming market, it's absolutely true here at least. The 360 was, if not THE console most people owned here, then at least about on par with PS3 (although that ratio might have shifted later in the generation). Now everyone has a PS4. I don't know a single person who owns an XBO, and it's just not being talked about. The PS4 is completely and utterly "it" now, much moreso than the PS3 ever was here.
Saul goodman, just be clear with your posts.
Outtrigger888
Member
Minecraft 2 would make an impact.
Live Free or Die
Banned
Clearly Pachter hasn't seen titanfall.
{insert code here}
Member
The best thing MS can do right now is learn from what Sony did at the end of last gen. Finish this gen strong by releasing good first party games. Sony focused on first party games and that has been a huge payoff for them. Sony's 2009-2013 released some amazing first party games and they capped it off in 2013 with GT6, Beyond, and TLoU. They finished strong with PS3 and that got people excited for PS4. MS needs to do the same and finish strong with the bone. They can't keep releasing Gears, Halo, Forza, and Fable each Holiday and think that somehow, magically, that people are going to abandon their PS4's and get a bone. All that does is cause franchise fatigue and all those games that used to routinely sell 4 or 5 million copies each are now barely limping towards a million. They need new first party IP. New IP are what get people excited, and Sea of Thieves is a good start. How about letting 343 make something that isn't Halo. Sony let ND do something different and they made TLoU. So there you go.
Or kill Minecraft.
What MS needs to learn is the lesson of hard work Sony put in over three gens establishing a truly global videogaming brand that because of ceaseless localisation work, actually giving the impression that it gave a shit about secondary markets, delivering good hardware and games that span every conceivable niche meant that for the world outside the US&UK even the PS3 couldn't destroy the brand.
This is where the flaw in most of the conventional narratives about PS3, and the application of them to MS, become apparent. Having a decent first-party output will consolidate the userbase in the anglosphere, but how MS is going to get into mainland EU & developing regions & markets will take far more than that.
Genuinely asking. Would it make a big impact? Like let's say would it move 2 million consoles? Isn't a big part of Minecraft's success based on the fact that it's widely available? I think even Microsoft realises this, which is why they just put out the Wii U version. I have a friend who is constantly saying how making Minecraft 2 exclusive to Windows phone and Xbox One would be great for both platforms. But I don't think many people are going to buy a console or switch platforms for Minecraft 2 (or any one game for that matter). Would they really find the investment profitable if they went this route?
What are everyone's thoughts on the subject?
Jawmuncher
Member
Yeah I don't think anything will change this gen, but next gen should be quite the treat. You'll have Xbox wanting to return to their former glory and PlayStation wanting to maintain what they have now. Both companies should be doing nothing but pleasing fans when they start to reveal their next systems.
Funny thing. The gap is bigger than that 1%.
