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Theres Nothing Xbox Can Do to Close Gap Between PS4, Says Pachter
- Thread starter Cow Goes Moo
- Start date
Chobel
Member
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!! I just hope you man up and bump the thread to eat crow for this delusional prediction.
LOOOOOOL! While less delusional than the above, it is still stupid as hell. Most people stick to one console, and this is especially true when PS4 and XBO share most of their game library.
Don't come down too hard on them Chobel. Some people genuinely haven't thought through just how impossible the scenario is due to worldwide markets. Pretty much the only territory where Microsoft can make up meaningful ground is the US, and Sony has the entire rest of the planet to offset it (even if PS4 wasn't in the lead in the USA).
But I have to admit it's funny to see how far off some people can be.
But I have to admit it's funny to see how far off some people can be.
The Artisan
Member
of course it will but by that point don't you think the Ps4 will have a price cut too?
XB1 could end up winning.
- An extremely powerful telepath could mind control the world's population into buying XB1s.
- Kaz could be revealed as Satan, and proper Christians and Muslims will be forced to burn his unholy console.
- Microsoft could buy Sony and immediately shutter PS4 development.
- An extremely powerful telepath could mind control the world's population into buying XB1s.
- Kaz could be revealed as Satan, and proper Christians and Muslims will be forced to burn his unholy console.
- Microsoft could buy Sony and immediately shutter PS4 development.
LiquidMetal14
hide your water-based mammals
PS4 has indies and ports and remasters. It's got nothing and no real AAA titles.
Xboxe has a chance thanks to the "much less is more" approach.
Xboxe has a chance thanks to the "much less is more" approach.
J
JeremyEtcetera
Unconfirmed Member
Xbox, Xbox 360 and Xbox One still has one main problem they have yet to resolve. They haven't been able to separate themselves far away enough from the PC market. A large quantity of their games tend to appear on PCs either same date or eventually in the future. It probably doesn't make a big enough difference but I bet there are PC owners out there who would have more incentive to buy an Xbox if they could just hold on to their exclusives. This isn't a big problem with Playstation and Nintendo games because a ton of Japanese games still aren't coming to PC on a regular basis, although that's been slowly improving.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1151628
Your statement will stop being seen as true in 2016, even though IMO it already isn't true.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1151628
Your statement will stop being seen as true in 2016, even though IMO it already isn't true.
Maybe rockstar is making too much money and their vaults can't hold it all so they have to settle with just limiting their audience to cut back on that. Perfect explanation. I'm a problem solver, you're welcome.
Well he's certainly right that MS cannot overtake Sony in most territories, Sony are very well embedded worldwide. He's also right about the exclusive situation, games are ultimately what sell the platform and they seem good on both sides for the coming years.
They can however think they will come back very strong next gen, much like Sony are doing now. But you never know, anything can happen, there's always Nintendo
They can however think they will come back very strong next gen, much like Sony are doing now. But you never know, anything can happen, there's always Nintendo
Pachter, PACHTER.
3rdamention
Member
Maybe this is the week Microsoft makes the move?
They have the Xbox One advertised for $350 at Target, right next to that $299 Star Wars PS4. And they have the $400 Kinect Bundle advertised at Best Buy, right next to that $299 Star Wars PS4.
I think it is pretty fair to say that Microsoft was caught off guard this week in the Sunday circulars. I know we have an insider that says Microsoft has a "hard counter" planned for this $299 PS4, so we will see what happens. But as for this week, if they have the "hard counter" they need to get out there and start shouting about it.
They have the Xbox One advertised for $350 at Target, right next to that $299 Star Wars PS4. And they have the $400 Kinect Bundle advertised at Best Buy, right next to that $299 Star Wars PS4.
I think it is pretty fair to say that Microsoft was caught off guard this week in the Sunday circulars. I know we have an insider that says Microsoft has a "hard counter" planned for this $299 PS4, so we will see what happens. But as for this week, if they have the "hard counter" they need to get out there and start shouting about it.
Because of that bottomless Xbox warchest MS has given saint Phil to play with, obvs.
GravityMan
Member
Sony is just a much more likable brand and company all over the world. Microsoft simply does not and never has had global appeal. So as long as Sony doesn't do anything really stupid (e.g. PS3 launch) Microsoft will never be a threat to them in this gen...or in future gens.
Hell, if Nintendo would get their act together and actually compete, they'd probably trounce Microsoft.
The Xbox One is one of the most pointless consoles in the history of this industry. 95-98% of what it offers and does...another platform also offers, and usually does it in a better and more appealing way.
Hell, if Nintendo would get their act together and actually compete, they'd probably trounce Microsoft.
The Xbox One is one of the most pointless consoles in the history of this industry. 95-98% of what it offers and does...another platform also offers, and usually does it in a better and more appealing way.
RichiRamjag
Member
Most definitely agree. It is an enjoyable game, but it isn't Tomb Raider.
ThomasAnderson
Member
I agree with the indies and remasters. Add the focus on VR and I'm not liking the direction Sony is going. The AAA titles are coming slowly, very slowly. Hopefully 2016 lineup and another E3 will change that.
If that were the case there would be 0 sold, obviously there's something about the console people find appealing enough to buy whether it be the exclusives, the eco system/features, or both.
I'd like to understand your reasoning behind this.
From my perspective, the only way the gap gets smaller is if four things happen:
1) Microsoft starts outselling the PS4, globally, by 500k+ units every month.
2) Microsoft is able to secure multiple high-profile AAA games as Xbox One exclusives. Games such as GTAVI, Skyrim II, Destiny 2, NBA 2K17, Left 4 Dead 3, etc.
3) Microsoft launches Minecraft 2, exclusively on the Xbox One, within the next 12 months.
4) Sony stops selling PS4's in every territory.
Let's look at each of the above in more detail:
#1 could happen if Microsoft are able to undercut the PS4's price by $100. Microsoft's best chance of making this happen is to be $100 less than the PS4 in the X1's strongest region (NA). The PS4 is temporarily discounted to $299.99 in NA and will, more than likely, permanently drop to $299.99 within the next 12 months. The Xbox One is currently selling for $349.99 in NA. This means that within the next 12 months, the Xbox One would have to slash $150 from its current price-tag. Dropping $150 in less than 12 months is a recipe for complete devaluation of your product -- there's no coming back from this, so this would be a very difficult internal decision to make. Is it possible? Yes. Is it going to work? No. If Microsoft drops to $199.99 then Sony will drop to $249.99. Sony has repeatedly demonstrated that they will do whatever it takes to remain competitive in NA. Once you look at the Xbox One sales in Japan and the estimates from Europe, you quickly realize that the Xbox One would need much much more than a price cut to outsell the PS4 by 500k+ in global sales ...
... which brings us to #2. In order for Microsoft to secure high-profile AAA games, they will need to write astronomically large checks to each major publisher. Activision/Take2/Zenimax can make hundreds of millions (in GTA's case, easily over a billion) on the PS4. This means that every meeting about exclusivity will have to start with a 9-figure sum. Never mind calibrating the projector for the PowerPoint or bringing in cupcakes from Trader Joe's. If Microsoft walks into a room without a massive check then they have absolutely no shot of securing a major AAA title. Is Nadella going to approve the Xbox division writing multiple 9-figure checks and paying over a billion dollars for games that they don't own? I honestly don't know, but what I do know is Nadella wants to keep his job as CEO, so I'm going to assume billion dollar decisions that will anger investors are not in the cards.
Now we're at #3. This is the most realistic of the bunch. Minecraft is now a Microsoft owned property. I would be absolutely shocked to learn that Microsoft are not going to work on a sequel for Minecraft. With that said, there are two problems with this. Problem number one: Minecraft is extremely popular on PC. Are Microsoft willing to launch the sequel to Minecraft on only one platform (Xbox One)? I think the answer is actually yes. Microsoft wouldn't be foolish enough to never develop a PC version, but they would absolutely be willing to deal with the incredible backlash that would come from delaying Minecraft 2 on PC. Problem number two: how soon can Microsoft create and launch a Minecraft sequel? 12 months? 24 months? In 2 years time, the PS4 will (potentially) be at 70 million consoles sold, possibly higher. Minecraft 2 can absolutely move Xbox consoles (significantly more than Halo can move at this point), but it cannot move 40 million Xbox consoles and reverse the Xbox One's market position.
Finally, #4. The only way Sony stops selling PS4's is if a major life-threatening defect is discovered and there is absolutely no way to engineer a new version of the console without the defect. We are more likely to encounter aliens than having this happen.
I think it would take those 4 things to shrink the gap and reverse the Xbox One's market position. Michael Pachter is, in my opinion, right on the money with his statement. From my point of view (and the view of others), it's just very unrealistic to believe the gap will shrink by the end of the generation.
His logic makes no sense to me.
Well the 360 turned out in the long-run to appeal to far more across the World than the PS3 did regardless of geographic/demographic perceptions. But as you said that was probably aided in part to PS3's dreadful start and how long it took Sony to turn that around. The difference in this generation however is that Microsoft got far too cocky and pinned their success on completely the wrong attributes. Sony just simply did a 'we're not them' and people bought it, regardless of any and all similarly-questionable practices Sony may or may not decide for their system.
Which is why I think Microsoft should take a page from Nintendo's book and simply stick to doing their own thing and making the Xbox One appeal from the game's library front as opposed to any other area. Yes, it may suffer in the long-term from the 900p/30FPS tags, but so long as their games are interesting and aren't weighed down by industry hands - microtransactions, 'exclusivity' PR talk, DLC etc. - they can at least end the generation reasonably well. F'sure, Sony has (as much as I hate using the term) 'won' the generation as far as sales and all-round consumer perception, but the Wii U is a great system with a great library of games.
You don't always have to lock horns with your competitor. Sure, you're not gunna be graced with those umpteen tens of millions of units sold, but I trust players will invest in your system so long as you have both the games to back it and the public appearance of a company who put players, rather than shareholders, first.
Bit of a blanket statement don't you think? There are exclusives on both platforms that appeal to many, many people. I agree on Nintendo being a force to be reckoned with, but they seem to enjoy drinking their own kool aid and give no shits to the market in general, which seems to do them well haha!
Neuromancer
Member
I think a healthy chunk of the Xbox One install base can be chalked up to brand loyalty. The 360 was a great console and Xbox Live was the best online service around for a while there. A few casual gamers I know at work were going to pick up Xbox Ones this holiday, not because they put a whole lot of thought into it but because they had a 360 last gen and liked it.
serversurfer
Member
It was early in the gen, but that Nielsen survey showed that "Because it's an XBox" was the number one reason owners gave for having chosen it.
Pathfinder
Member
That must be why they sold so well during Black Friday.
Sounds like it's good to be a pointless console then.
thekiddfran
Member
No one cares about that though
Neuromancer
Member
Considering the PS4 is currently outselling the PS2, it's not an unfair comparison.
DarkSniper
Neo Member
Michael Pachter is a veteran of the video game industry and is very knowledgeable about the current and future trends of gaming. In my humble opinion, Pachter is the Nostradamus of Video Games. Pachter is absolutely correct in saying that Xbox is pretty much done this generation when it comes to comparison against the graphical juggernaut that is known as the PlayStation®4.
The momentum that Sony has gained this generation has no signs of stopping and only will grow from here. We are going back to a familiar era where most third party exclusives will be only found on PlayStation like it was during the PS1 and PS2 days. I appreciate that Michael Pachter has once again graced us with another one of his accurate predictions.
$niper
The momentum that Sony has gained this generation has no signs of stopping and only will grow from here. We are going back to a familiar era where most third party exclusives will be only found on PlayStation like it was during the PS1 and PS2 days. I appreciate that Michael Pachter has once again graced us with another one of his accurate predictions.
$niper
Pathfinder
Member
Nice try, Pachter. You're not fooling anyone.
king picollo
Member
Exclusives sell consoles if MS had another major exclusive it could turn the tide.
Unlikely given the current batch though.
They could money hat Destiny I suppose.
Unlikely given the current batch though.
They could money hat Destiny I suppose.
Neuromancer
Member
Exclusives sell a lot less consoles than you might think. These days 3rd party games are the real system sellers, and people are going to go where they play and look the best and where their friends already are. Like the 360 last gen.
serversurfer
Member
Exclusives sell consoles, but it's rare to see games like GT, Halo, or Wii Sports that can single-handedly sell a console. Exclusives matter, but mostly collectively.
DarkSniper
Neo Member
Tivor Tontomo
Member
Wait, you actually believe that MS will take a lead in the US this year or something? Anyway, time will set you straight.
Btw, I never said anything about Sony taking a commanding lead. I was pointing out that MS lost their chance this year since all info so far points to a much closer scenario for the holidays than last year. For MS to have a slight chance to "win" the geneation, they need to dominate the US, and that's not going to happen.
I didn't say that at all but ok...
Tivor Tontomo
Member
Not really, the ratios are the same.
Tivor Tontomo
Member
he did say that actually.
Relativ9
Member
So he's very spesific in his predictions and mostly right?
Microsoft didn't win last gen though...even if you discount Nintendo. Sony did. Worldwide the PS3 just edged out 360, and is continuing to do so.
More on topic, the only thing Microsoft could really do to close the gap this generation is put basically all their marketing and price cut money into Europe and Asia, because without them they don't stand a chance.
pr0cs
Member
Oh they did, if you look where they started and where they ended in terms of marketshare and profit they did , at least compared to Sony. Sadly they flushed it all away with a terrible launch and half baked concept for the xbone.
LordRaiden
Neo Member
In all fairness, MS did shoot itself in the foot with the used game policy, always online shit, required Kinect (to check up on you) AND the sheer cheek of Don Mattrick..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5yC8FbgGnd0
Yeah, that didn't help them one bit....
Many shifted towards the PS4 back then and even when they reversed all that crap, the damage was already done.
That and false demo units (which were fucking PC's hidden in a compartment) all contributed in lower sales.
Not to say that it would be a close call if they didn't.... But the difference would have been less big I think.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5yC8FbgGnd0
Yeah, that didn't help them one bit....
Many shifted towards the PS4 back then and even when they reversed all that crap, the damage was already done.
That and false demo units (which were fucking PC's hidden in a compartment) all contributed in lower sales.
Not to say that it would be a close call if they didn't.... But the difference would have been less big I think.
Source?
Heh, I just watched this earlier today. Pity I missed the thread going up.
In any case, I'm in total agreement with Pachter.
XB1 literally has no chance as they just aren't as globally recognised as PS4.
Really?
These are places where Xbox software barely has anything in the charts when I look at PAL charts every week.
The gap in some of those EU places is damn near 7:1.
In any case, I'm in total agreement with Pachter.
XB1 literally has no chance as they just aren't as globally recognised as PS4.
Really?
These are places where Xbox software barely has anything in the charts when I look at PAL charts every week.
The gap in some of those EU places is damn near 7:1.
Gonna need to see your source on this one.
I don't want to be the defense force here...but if you've sold ~18-20 million of a thing in this amount of time, can we really call it a disappointment? Shouldn't we compare it to where the 360 was at this point in its lifespan? Just because the PS4 is doing gangbusters doesn't mean there's anything wrong with how the XB1 is performing overall.
EDIT
I definitely prefer the feature set of the XB1 to what the PS4 offers in the living room, specifically the OneGuide OTA integration and it just being a better media player overall. My non-technical wife can find everything she wants to use on there, I get to play competent ports of current gen console games. If I was that worried about playing the best possible looking version of a game, I'd be doing it on a PC anyways. People love throwing numbers around, but as we've seen in the past year or so, being the underdog has recently led to a great experience for the consumer in terms of features/usability while they try to build market share. What do you have to fight for when you're already the best?
EDIT
I definitely prefer the feature set of the XB1 to what the PS4 offers in the living room, specifically the OneGuide OTA integration and it just being a better media player overall. My non-technical wife can find everything she wants to use on there, I get to play competent ports of current gen console games. If I was that worried about playing the best possible looking version of a game, I'd be doing it on a PC anyways. People love throwing numbers around, but as we've seen in the past year or so, being the underdog has recently led to a great experience for the consumer in terms of features/usability while they try to build market share. What do you have to fight for when you're already the best?
Darkstorne
Member
Who's calling it a disappointment? Xbone is selling well enough, PS4 is selling insanely well.
I think that's more a sign of how third party has overtaken first party as the biggest games (both financially and culturally) since the start of last gen. It seemed to shift as we approached the half way mark of last gen, when CoD, Assassin's Creed, Mass Effect, The Elder Scrolls, Bioshock, Arkham, Battlefield, etc became the most hyped games. Halo just isn't the big name shooter any more (remember all those "Halo killers"?) - Call of Duty is.
Samurai G0SU
Member
KAHMon Guiz
MS Will buy 1 year exclusivity to GTA6.
TROLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
MS Will buy 1 year exclusivity to GTA6.
While it launches with 5x more content the following year on ps4 .