Hello! This wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of June and July. This is when it is beneficial to compare weekly averages and not just simple month to month, because June is a 5 week month while July is only 4. I’ve also gathered software for July to help explain why July would be worse than June. You can go to previous prediction threads for the previous month's potential impacts.
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2010
Xbox 360 June: 451,700 / 5 = 90,340
Xbox 360 July: 443,500 / 4 = 110,875
Weekly average up 23%
PS3 June: 304,800 / 5 = 60,960
PS3 July: 214,500 / 4 = 53,625
Weekly average down 12%
Wii June: 422,500 / 5 = 84,500
Wii July: 253,900 / 4 = 63,475
Weekly average down 25%
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Notable Releases in July
[u]Xbox 360[/u]
NCAA Football 11 [368,000]
Crackdown 2 [208,800]
[u]PS3[/u]
NCAA Football 11 [298,800]
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2011
Xbox 360 June: 507K / 5 = 101,400
Xbox 360 July: 277K / 4 = 69,250
Weekly average down 32%
PS3 June: 276K / 5 = 55,200
PS3 July: 145K / 4 = 36,250
Weekly average down 34%
Wii June: 273K / 5 = 54,600
Wii July: 190K / 4 = 47,500
Weekly average down 13%
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Notable Releases in July
[u]Xbox 360[/u]
NCAA Football 12
[u]PS3[/u]
NCAA Football 12
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2012
Xbox 360 June: 257K / 5 = 51,400
Xbox 360 July: 203K / 4 = 50,750
Weekly average down 1%
PS3 June: 188K / 5 = 37,600
PS3 July: 139K / 4 = 34,750
Weekly average down 8%
Wii June: 95k / 5 = 19,000
Wii July: 69k / 4 = 17,250
Weekly average down 9%
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Notable Releases in July
[u]Xbox 360[/u]
NCAA Football 13
[u]PS3[/u]
NCAA Football 13
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2013
Xbox 360 June: 140K / 5 = 28,000
Xbox 360 July: 107K / 4 = 26,750
Weekly average down 4%
PS3 June: 109K / 5 = 21,800
PS3 July: 79k / 4 = 19,750
Weekly average down 9%
Wii June: 53k / 5 = 10,600
Wii July: 34k / 4 = 8,500
Weekly average down 20%
Wii U June: 42k / 5 = 8,400
Wii U July: 29k / 4 = 7,250
Weekly average down 14%
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Notable Releases in July
[u]Xbox 360[/u]
NCAA Football 14
[u]PS3[/u]
NCAA Football 14
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2014
Xbox 360 June: 62k / 5 = 12,400
Xbox 360 July: 54K / 4 = 13,500
Weekly average up 9%
Xbox One June: 197K / 5 = 39,400
Xbox One July: 131K / 4 = 32,750
Weekly average down 17%
PS3 June: 42k / 5 = 8,400
PS3 July: 32k / 4 = 8,000
Weekly average down 5%
PS4 June: 269K / 5 = 53,800
PS4 July: 187K / 4 = 46,750
Weekly average down 13%
Wii June: 10K / 5 = 2,000
Wii July: 14k / 4 = 3,500
Weekly average up 75%
Wii U June: 140K / 5 = 28,000
Wii U July: 81k / 4 = 20,250
Weekly average down 28%
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Notable Releases in July
[u]PS4[/u]
The Last of Us Remastered [270k]
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2015
Xbox 360/PS3/Wii = Basically dead (and some months have not leaked yet for 2015)
Xbox One June: 296,000 / 5 = 59,200
Xbox One July: 189K / 4 = 47,250
Weekly average down 20%
PS4 June: 364,100 / 5 = 72,820
PS4 July: 218K / 4 = 54,500
Weekly average down 25%
Wii U June: 70,200 / 5 = 14,040
Wii U July: 46k / 4 = 11,500
Weekly average down 18%
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Notable Releases in July
N/A
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2016 June Weekly Averages
Xbox One: 211,900 / 5 = 42,380
PS4: 234,500 / 5 = 46,900
Wii U: 34,600 / 5 = 6,920
Some notes:
For the Xbox 360, right off the bat it improved by 23% compared to June, and that was thanks to sales of the just recently released Xbox 360 S back in June 2010. Besides that, the only other time the Xbox 360 improved was in 2014 for some reason. Can’t really tell you why. I’ll drop 2010 when comparing averages as nothing else like the Slim has happened since. Dropping that makes the 360’s average drop 7%, dropping 2010 AND 2014 would have the average drop to 13%, dropping those AND 2011 (massive drop) would be a drop of 3%, and keeping all of them would be a drop of 1%.
The Xbox One has had major hardware impacting events occur in every June so far. $399 Kinectless sku in 2014, $399 1TB SKU + Trade in deals in 2015, and now TWO price cuts in 2016, as well as the announcement of the Xbox One S for August (and Scorpio, but that has no impact this early in the game). Because of those, the XB1 has a larger drop compared to the 360 which is 19%.
PS3 behaved similarly between 2010 - 2014 (excluding the drop of 34% in 2011). The average for it is a 14% drop and if you remove 2011, it’s an 8% drop.
PS4 has been very similar to the XB1 in performance, with an average 19% drop.
For Nintendo, I'm just getting rid of that humongous 2014 outlier of a 75% increase (What even happened?). The Wii averaged a 17% drop with the Wii U averaging a 20% drop.
Recap.
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360 weekly average drop: -1% to -13%
PS3 weekly average drop: -8% to -14%
Wii weekly average drop: -17%
XB1 weekly average drop: -19%
PS4 weekly average drop: -19%
WIU weekly average drop: -20%
Average of Averages: -14% to -17%
- The biggest July ever recorded between the 7th and 8th gen was the Wii with 555,000 back in 2008. Second biggest? Xbox 360 with 443,500 back in 2011.