Thought I'd share some additional thoughts around the month, as requested. It's the first go at this, so if there are recommendations for improvement I'm open.
The big news is obviously the Nintendo Switch. Supply constraints and inventory are absolutely an issue. It's difficult, obviously, to estimate what potential sales could have been. In any case, a very impressive month 2 for what has been a surprise even for me (I've been very bullish on the Switch since announce). It will take time to ramp up the supply chain. It's not like you can flip a switch (heh) and get units off a line. But, with the one big title a month-ish strategy, and an improving supply chain, and Mario Odyssey at the end of the year, I remain bullish. Is this the next Wii? Well, I'm not ready to go there yet. Early signs are encouraging, however, and 3-4.5m US in 2017 is certainly within reach, assuming that the 10m ww ship number is a cap.
NES Classic was also a big seller, as mentioned in the release. There's not much else to be said here. The NES Classic was a phenomenon, and I'm hoping we get more of these kinds of systems in the future.
Now, Nintendo has been the big news, but the PS4 and Xbox One aren't slouching. I still forecast the time aligned PS4 and Xbox One installed base to exceed that of the PS2 and Xbox sometime later this year, and to be significantly ahead of PS3 and Xbox 360. The data suggests to me that software exclusives are having a meaningful impact here, and I expect to see Sony continue it's strategy of one primary bundle at a time, while I also expect Microsoft to maintain a variety bundle strategy, but toned down from a year ago. We'll have to wait and see on that. In any case, console sales are not a zero sum game. And I'm not even certain the Switch is directly competing with the PS4 and Xbox One. Maybe it is now? But by holiday, I'm not so certain.
In any case, E3 is going to tell us a lot. I'm assuming that Microsoft didn't announce the Scorpio so early without intention of making significant waves in June with content, services and price. I've gotten flak on the interwebs for my 600k 2017 number, and for saying that Scorpio has the potential to push Xone sales ahead of PS4 in this calendar year (not life to date). This is predicated on a lot of assumptions though. An attractive price point, significant content support, (R)evolutionary services, and some surprises on top. I just don't think so many smart people would announce so early unless they were very confident of what is coming. My number could end up being WAY off, and that's fine. The number is more prophecy than forecast given known factors. I want to believe.
PS4 is in a wonderfully good spot. Everything they're doing so far seems to be working quite well for the hardware. They just have to avoid screwing anything up, and I don't see them doing anything that would make things go sideways.
Where to begin.
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe did fantastic. Zelda is going to be on the top 10 for quite a while as well it seems. Not much more needs to be said here. Keep 'em coming.
Persona 5 though. I was thinking, okay, maybe Persona 5 gets to the top 5. I certainly wasn't expecting #2, even without digital. Now, JRPGs tend to be very heavy in month 1 on their decay curves. We'll have to see how it holds up over time. Regardless, just an incredibly impressive month. The premium edition also did exceptionally well, and reflects a new trend of higher priced, premium editions taking higher share for major releases over time. Day 1 consumers and fans are becoming more and more price insensitive - and higher priced SKUs are selling better and better. Now, this doesn't apply once you get 3-6 months down the line, but in launch month premium editions are becoming a bigger share of the pie, and I think we're going to see a lot more of these editions featuring a ton of digital content for GaaS games in particular.
BLOPS II on the list was also a big surprise. And remember, this chart is revenue based, so you're talking some pretty big units. Some folks out there are saying that backwards compatibility isn't a big deal to the market as a whole. Maybe not. However, it is a huge deal for companies planning long-range support for their titles, and in setting up their products to have long-term success. Of course, we're not talking about just some mid-tier game, it is COD we're talking about. Still, the days of a 12 week new release decay curve followed by quick markdowns to $19.99 within a year are ending (exception being titles with significant channel inventory concerns).
Speaking of COD, I'm convinced COD:WWII will give the franchise a nice rebound from last year. I'm expecting growth in the 30% range at least. The response to BLOPS II going back compat certainly gives me more confidence that a traditional, boots on the ground COD game is going to find an audience.
Everyone always asks "who is buying GTAV". Stop asking that. It's new console buyers. Clear correlation between GTAV sales and hardware sales. Science.
And MLB The Show... WOW. Knocked it out of the park (rimshot.gif) this year.
One note from the release that's been overlooked is that 7 publishers are on the top 10 for switch. Now, you're likely to say "well duh, Nintendo's only made a few games". That's missing the point though. The sales of the rest of the top 10 are pretty darn good. Point is, folks putting games on the Switch are finding success. I expect more support to come quickly. Ports at first, particularly from smaller digital only games that are easier to move. But I also expect more 'core' games to show up as well. The Switch is a great device for playing video games. I expect people that love making games to want to put their games on it.
I couldn't be more encouraged with April results. HW, SW and ACC all had a great month. Switch and Persona 5 drove the growth, but the core boxes are combining to be right on track to where they should be at this point in the cycle. And software is doing very well. Digital and Packaged growth happening at the same time, which gives me additional confidence in my long-held belief that Digital full game sales are more incremental than cannibalistic to Physical. But I will rant on that another day.
Hope this is helpful. Interested in your thoughts.
