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[balladofwindfishes]

It wouldn't have mattered at all for the votes that they had, because almost all of the opposition from the House came from the right and was a complete smokescreen the first time compared to the Senate bill, which has had most of its pressure from the center.

I think with a CBO estimate, the moderates would have killed the bill in the House the second time.

There was regret after the vote by them, and turmoil in the Tuesday Group a bit later.

A slower pace and actual numbers would have scared them off

 

[~Kinggi~]

GOD DAMNIT i need my oppoium fuuuuuuuuuuu

 

[Tamanon]

I like Angus King. He just seems so dang sensible all the time.

 

[Surfinn]

Stop doing this lol

Also from Costa
HELLER is back at the table, but far from being a "yes," per two Republicans close to the process. Willing to discuss concerns.

Not doing anything

 

[chadskin]

Not the oppo bomb but Manafort now registered as a foreign agent, like Flynn before him:

A consulting firm led by Paul Manafort, who chaired Donald Trump’s presidential campaign for several months last year, retroactively filed forms Tuesday showing that his firm received $17.1 million over two years from a political party that dominated Ukraine before its leader fled to Russia in 2014.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...22b6ac-5b7b-11e7-9fc6-c7ef4bc58d13_story.html

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Stop doing this lol

Also from Costa
HELLER is back at the table, but far from being a "yes," per two Republicans close to the process. Willing to discuss concerns.

Everyone is back at the table, it doesn't mean much. Heller (and by extension Sandoval)'s concerns aren't concerns that are going to be easily addressed since they involve keeping the medicaid expansion more or less intact, and that's where the majority of McConnell's savings comes from.

 

[Plinko]

Also from Costa
HELLER is back at the table, but far from being a "yes," per two Republicans close to the process. Willing to discuss concerns.

In related news:

Alex Isenstadt‏Verified account @politicoalex

BREAKING: Pro-Trump group to pull anti-Heller ads...Story TK

Looks like we may have a potential flipper.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

The most vulnerable Republican senator is not going to vote for this bill

 

[Plinko]

The most vulnerable Republican senator is not going to vote for this bill

Perhaps not. Why do you think they pulled the ads? Is he playing them, or are they just realizing it will hurt him in the long run?

 

[Spoiled Milk]

Not the oppo bomb but Manafort now registered as a foreign agent, like Flynn before him:


https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...22b6ac-5b7b-11e7-9fc6-c7ef4bc58d13_story.html

This story is so boring. It's been a year since I found out Manafort is a pro Russian stooge who rewrote the RNC platform to give Russians less pressure in Ukraine. Why am I supposed to care again? Because NATO should have troops right on the banks of Dnieper?

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Perhaps not. Why do you think they pulled the ads? Is he playing them, or are they just realizing it will hurt him in the long run?

Because someone must have told the PAC it was a stupid idea that was only making negotiations harder. McConnell's staff was pretty annoyed they were doing this.

 

[JetBlackPanda]

wait some R's are flipping back and will vote now? sorry I just got out of a meeting.

 

[BlastProcessing]

In related news:



Looks like we may have a potential flipper.

Not sure that means he is a flipper as much as it means that he has all of the leverage.

 

[CrimzonSamurai]

Heller is way more concerned about his GE opposition than being hit from the right. He probably never even cared about the ads.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

wait some R's are flipping back and will vote now? sorry I just got out of a meeting.

Nobody has flipped, the vote isn't happening for a few weeks

Lee and Collins have dug in further since the meeting.

 

[nature boy]

 

[Plinko]

Heller is way more concerned about his GE opposition than being hit from the right. He probably never even cared about the ads.

At some point, this type of thing has to depress republican vote, no? I mean, one would think they would eventually see these things and just say, "Eh, I'm not voting." I'm just always blown away by how they get their base to show up at the polls.

Because someone must have told the PAC it was a stupid idea that was only making negotiations harder. McConnell's staff was pretty annoyed they were doing this.

Right--and weren't they queuing them up for 4 others earlier today? I guess I don't get what it accomplishes.

wait some R's are flipping back and will vote now? sorry I just got out of a meeting.

Nah--just potential. Nothing concrete at all. If the new bill and CBO isn't any better, I don't think much changes.

My guess right now is that they are frantically trying to find a way to delay the insurance losses until after 2020.

 

[Sibylus]

What happened to it being a done deal and the GOP being to the last suit a hiveminded bunch of steely-eyed, unflinching insurance-taking congressborgs?

Spoiler

Not that I'm celebrating just yet... just yeah. Ya'll. Too much nopium.

 

[Plinko]

What happened to it being a done deal and the GOP being to the last suit a hiveminded bunch of steely-eyed, unflinching insurance-taking congressborgs?

Spoiler

Not that I'm celebrating just yet... just yeah. Ya'll. Too much nopium.

It's not really out there to think that, though. Republicans generally always come around to support the party. I mean, look at what McCain was saying the whole time. "I hate the process. It's terrible. I don't even know what's in the bill. Yeah, I'm voting for it because that is just how it goes."

 

[balladofwindfishes]

That's because McCain is a crotchety old man who may or may not be going senile

Right--and weren't they queuing them up for 4 others earlier today? I guess I don't get what it accomplishes.

Yea, it could be those were just threats and never got far enough that they needed to pull them back. Heller's announcement was Friday, the other three came later

Nah--just potential. Nothing concrete at all. If the new bill and CBO isn't any better, I don't think much changes.

My guess right now is that they are frantically trying to find a way to delay the insurance losses until after 2020.

Nothing is going to fix the terrible headlines from the CBO report, doesn't matter if it's pushed way out.

I also don't know how they push it out to 2020 without upsetting the extremely conservatives that want Obamacare gone ASAP. How do you argue to your constituents that Obamacare is failing and everything is terrible, and then delay everything to 2020?

 

[Plinko]

So apparently that reporter that told off Sarah today was from Playboy? Amazing how he'll step up when the rest of the traditional media does nothing.

 

[Aaron Strife]

I think KS-3 (the district with Kansas City) will likely be a lean blue seat if we can unseat Yoder. We've had the seat before and it went for Hillary last election and it's favorable enough that I think it would be relatively safe if we get an incumbent in there.

I don't think it'll turn into a swing state for statewide elections except for maybe the occasional governor (would be genuinely great if Brewer wins next year though) but it is nice to dream. Even if it isn't many EC votes having a couple senate seats within reach would be genuinely huge.

Thanks to the moderate R/Dem coalition in the state legislature just getting a governor who's not a complete shithead would go a long way in Kansas. For one, Medicaid expansion would happen almost immediately, provided the program still exists in 2019.

 

[Autodidact]

So apparently that reporter that told off Sarah today was from Playboy? Amazing how he'll step up when the rest of the traditional media does nothing.

Playboy's always had talented writers and interesting articles. And I'm a gay man and actually mean that!

 

[Ogodei]

Perhaps not. Why do you think they pulled the ads? Is he playing them, or are they just realizing it will hurt him in the long run?

I think it's more that somebody managed to explain to America First PAC that the threats would be counterproductive and that Heller's more likely to flip than others in the No group.

 

[TestOfTide]

It's not really out there to think that, though. Republicans generally always come around to support the party. I mean, look at what McCain was saying the whole time. "I hate the process. It's terrible. I don't even know what's in the bill. Yeah, I'm voting for it because that is just how it goes."

McCain is bad example because he clearly is gonna retire after this term so frankly doesn't give a fuck about anything but helping republicans.

But everyone has to think about reelection chances and they are viewing this Healthcare bill as "Mitch McConnell's Suicide Pact".

 

[Crocodile]

I LOLed

Anyway if this bill actually stays dead in the Senate probably relies more on the moderates than the far right. Let's hope they grow some fucking spines >_<

 

[ratcliffja]

So apparently that reporter that told off Sarah today was from Playboy? Amazing how he'll step up when the rest of the traditional media does nothing.

Playboy has a history of solid journalism, surprisingly.

 

[Plinko]

Playboy's always had talented writers and interesting articles. And I'm a gay man and actually mean that!

That along with Buzzfeed being the one to break the news of that dossier is just crazy to me.

I LOLed

Anyway if this bill actually stays dead in the Senate probably relies more on the moderates than the far right. Let's hope they grow some fucking spines >_<

Democrats need to run on similar ads in 2018. Turn this thing around on them.

 

[AnotherNils]

Judging from the front page of OT still no oppo droppo

---

Also, am I the only person who thinks Lisa Murkowski looks like the wife from Fargo?

 

[DontBeThatGuy]

I LOLed

Anyway if this bill actually stays dead in the Senate probably relies more on the moderates than the far right. Let's hope they grow some fucking spines >_<

Hope? In regards to Republicans doing the right thing? I don't believe such a thing exists.

 

[PBY]

This story is so boring. It's been a year since I found out Manafort is a pro Russian stooge who rewrote the RNC platform to give Russians less pressure in Ukraine. Why am I supposed to care again? Because NATO should have troops right on the banks of Dnieper?

I feel this way about this whole Russia thing.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

I think it's more that somebody managed to explain to America First PAC that the threats would be counterproductive and that Heller's more likely to flip than others in the No group.

I don't think it's that they think Heller is easy to flip (he isn't going to be), but that Heller is absolutely necessary for this bill to pass, if Collins and Rand are hardcore nos with no chance to change. Also the PAC was just making negotiations harder.

At this point, it's a matter of when, not if, Lee, Johnson and Cruz flip over. Collins doesn't seem able to be changed at all without making an entirely new bill. Rand is really stubborn and could be pretty annoying to turn, although he could. But turning Rand and Heller at the same time seems like a puzzle that's impossible to complete. And any changes winning the three conservative stooges over might turn Murkowski away, who hasn't even said anything this entire time other than that she wants Planned Parenthood funding added back in (fat chance!).

 

[Sibylus]

It's not really out there to think that, though. Republicans generally always come around to support the party. I mean, look at what McCain was saying the whole time. "I hate the process. It's terrible. I don't even know what's in the bill. Yeah, I'm voting for it because that is just how it goes."

As apt for falling in line as they are, I really do think it's out there because it ascribes the perfection of political organization and willingness to ignore external circumstance that borders inhuman. Not everything can be a feint or the secret perfect move, let alone is.

 

[Plinko]

I don't think it's that they think Heller is easy to flip (he isn't going to be), but that Heller is absolutely necessary for this bill to pass, if Collins and Rand are hardcore nos with no chance to change. Also the PAC was just making negotiations harder.

At this point, it's a matter of when, not if, Lee, Johnson and Cruz flip over. Collins doesn't seem able to be changed at all without making an entirely new bill. Rand is really stubborn and could be pretty annoying to turn, although he could. But turning Rand and Heller at the same time seems like a puzzle that's impossible to complete. And any changes winning the three conservative stooges over might turn Murkowski away, who hasn't even said anything this entire time other than that she wants Planned Parenthood funding added back in (fat chance!).

Rand's deal is that he wants the bill worse, though. Rumor was he doesn't flip unless they get rid of tax credits/subsidies.

 

[Chumley]

Wittes went radio silent today. The additional tick tick post from yesterday was pretty dumb especially considering he's acknowledged twice now that he doesn't know when it's dropping.

Man it sounds so juicy. Hope it delivers

I thought Wittes was supposed to be legit being close with Comey and all

smh

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

I feel this way about this whole Russia thing.

And then everyone wonders what happened to politics and why a swamp is there to begin with. Start with the apathy of the American people towards increasing levels of unscrupulous behavior being met with a bored shrug.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Rand's deal is that he wants the bill worse, though. Rumor was he doesn't flip unless they get rid of tax credits/subsidies.

It's going to be nearly impossible to give him that and not end up losing more moderate votes and not making an even more shocking CBO report.

I have a feeling Kasich is going to be working Portman all week, I don't think the GOP should count on him, either.

 

[Rebel Leader]

Why should they? You are trying to pass this shit with 51 votes

 

[CygnusXS]

I feel this way about this whole Russia thing.

You guys don't care about maintaining the integrity of your country's sovereignty? I have to admit I'm perplexed by that.

 

[kirblar]

And then everyone wonders what happened to politics and why a swamp is there to begin with. Start with the apathy of the American people towards increasing levels of unscrupulous behavior being met with a bored shrug.

Seriously. A country is literally trying to destroy western democracy. And people "don't get what the big deal is"

 

[PBY]

You guys don't care about maintaining the integrity of your country's sovereignty? I have to admit I'm perplexed by that.

And then everyone wonders what happened to politics and why a swamp is there to begin with. Start with the apathy of the American people towards increasing levels of unscrupulous behavior being met with a bored shrug.

Of course.

I want the investigation to be fulsome and thorough. And then for me to hear the results after its complete. These oppo drops are, in hindsight, just noise. Also, if it was this huge tremendous threat to democracy, why didn't Obama do anything?

 

[Autodidact]

"Well, if that stupid bitch Hillary had just campaigned in Wisconsin and those corporatist Democrats had just embraced single payer and free college..."

Newsflash: voters who grow up in stable democracy take it for granted.

Double newsflash: petty, immature people want to push their own agenda and get their digs rather than worry about BORING things such as electoral sovereignty and threatening foreign powers.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

You better get used to the "Russia thing" because this is not a one and done event. It's the beginning of a new form of warfare that will have to be dealt with for the foreseeable future. If enough people adopt this "who cares" attitude we might as well just cede our nation to our adversaries because they clearly do care.

 

[~Kinggi~]

Of course.

I want the investigation to be fulsome and thorough. And then for me to hear the results after its complete. These oppo drops are, in hindsight, just noise. Also, if it was this huge tremendous threat to democracy, why didn't Obama do anything?

Oppo drops are actually very important in turning the tide of things. Without a constant waterfall of oppo from Wapo and NYT special prosecutor wouldnt have happened as soon as it did. People in the capital need to be emotionally drained to succumb to change.

 

[NihonTiger90]

In related news:



Looks like we may have a potential flipper.

He's probably betting the GOP will ride into battle and save him in 2018.

 

[PBY]

Actually asking this seriously - how am I supposed to evaluate the actual risk of Russia as a threat in light of Obama's response at the time?

To be honest, I'm far more worried about knock-on effects / proxy wars that result from a renewed cold war with Russia.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Actually asking this seriously - how am I supposed to evaluate the actual risk of Russia as a threat in light of Obama's response at the time?

To be honest, I'm far more worried about knock-on effects / proxy wars that result from a renewed cold war with Russia.

Why is Obama the end all be all barometer of what's important? He's far from perfect and I'm sure he has many deep regrets regarding Russia.

 

[CygnusXS]

Of course.

I want the investigation to be fulsome and thorough. And then for me to hear the results after its complete. These oppo drops are, in hindsight, just noise. Also, if it was this huge tremendous threat to democracy, why didn't Obama do anything?

I'm definitely with you on the current news flow being closer to noise, while we wait for a more definitive story to come out of a full investigation. It is still an urgent issue though, even if it's hard to fully judge the importance of what individual pieces come out in the news.

 

[DontBeThatGuy]

Actually asking this seriously - how am I supposed to evaluate the actual risk of Russia as a threat in light of Obama's response at the time?

To be honest, I'm far more worried about knock-on effects / proxy wars that result from a renewed cold war with Russia.

Russia is trying to pull this shit all over the world, so you probably should consider it a risk, because everyone else does.

 

[shem935]

Actually asking this seriously - how am I supposed to evaluate the actual risk of Russia as a threat in light of Obama's response at the time?

To be honest, I'm far more worried about knock-on effects / proxy wars that result from a renewed cold war with Russia.

How about next time we have a general election, trump doesn't want to do anything against russian hackers because they helped him last time and he doesn't want them to undermine his immense victory, and he lets them run amok unchecked?