I don't think so. Even a rational president would not let an attack on Guam (assuming it had any success) meet with a non-response or muted response. An attack on Guam would lead to a major retaliation.
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North Korea Threatens Missile Strike on Guam (a United States Territory)
- Thread starter Armadilo
- Start date
I don't think so. Even a rational president would not let an attack on Guam (assuming it had any success) meet with a non-response or muted response. An attack on Guam would lead to a major retaliation.
Disheveled_Zen
Member
I go on vacation in 2 days, can we kindly hold off the end of the world until I have to go back to work. Then go ahead and end it, im cool with it
Shadow Puppetry
Member
Don't worry, folks. Our fearless leader Trump will take acti--oh, he's out golfing.
MadJackChurchill
Banned
And Saddam was just sitting in his palace during the Gulf Wars? Kim's going to be hidden away deep in the numerous mountains.
Pyongyang isn't central command.
Marvel
could never
SDCowboy
Member
That discussion would lead to the affirmative. Do you think if NK tied to attack Guam, that the US wouldn't do anything?
Advocatus Diaboli
Member
So, no. Let's get that out of the way.
While there are undeniably demographic trends within and among the armed forces, it's absolutely, demonstrably unfair to paint -- with a broad, generalizing brush -- a newly minted Marine rifleman as a "stupid kid" while the Air Force officer at Creech is the "smart one."
The way of thinking you espouse is problematic, and while I'm the least nationalistic person there is (and I'm no fan of blind patriotism or the military-industrial complex either...), it offends me.
But yes, everyone should do their homework.
MisterR
Member
Utter nonsense. If the US strikes NK preemptively there won't be anything left to hit Guam. That's if NK could even manage to aim straight to begin with.
An attack on Guam would leave them no room to hide behind anything. At that point the US would bring it hard.
Complistic
Member
Think I'm still too fat to get drafted, so that's good.
The point here is that attacking Guam marks the end of NK regime, and that's not Kim's end game.
MisterR
Member
Hahaha. If NK ever attacked America there would be no NK shortly thereafter. No American president would allow that.
wrestleman
Member
Good. Let him golf.
We've been overestimating the military's ability to successfully pull off a decapitation strike for at least 15 years, so at this point I'd be very skeptical that they would be able to do so in NK.
Random Human
They were trying to grab your prize. They work for the mercenary. The masked man.
He already launched missiles while golfing once.
Even if the US can take out all launch sites and mobile launchers (highly unlikely).
NK still has SLBMs they can launch from below the surface out of danger of the Air Force.
They have been practicing exactly that in the recent months.
Which is why they will be completely destroyed in nuclear hellfire, unlike Japan which was only partially destroyed by same.
NullPointer
Member
Razgriz-Specter
Member
Im just say of all the dumb moves that Kim could do it seems the most plausible.
I don't think so. Firstly, it's not guaranteed the missiles would hit their target. There is a THAAD system as well as PAC-3's in Guam, and North Korean missiles may not be all that accurate. Secondly, it would justify a series of US nuclear attacks on NK to bring down the government.
LegitMcfalls
Member
Advocatus Diaboli
Member
Is it really so hard to understand that the DPRK gains nothing from actually striking a target (unless and until it faces an existential threat)?
This is rhetoric.
North Korea isn't the dangerous party here.
We should all be -- and doubtless the international community is -- more concerned with Trump's reaction.
The most likely end-state here is: (1) more posturing by the DPRK, including more weapons launches into the Pacific Ocean; (2) joint exercises between Japan, the U.S., and South Korea; and (3) a fucking Twitter war between Pyongyang state media and Trump.
It's the third prong that's the real wildcard.
There are informal protocols in place here. Just like when the Russians violate U.S. airspace every so often and our fighters from JBER intercept them (and they tilt wings at each other to say hello, because that's actually a thing), this is the Kim regime's usual way of saying "Hello, we want food and/or fewer sanctions."
The danger isn't a nuke in the ocean or Twitter threats. The danger is Trump not understanding the complex history, including the informal protocols in play, and doing something fucking stupid.
This is rhetoric.
North Korea isn't the dangerous party here.
We should all be -- and doubtless the international community is -- more concerned with Trump's reaction.
The most likely end-state here is: (1) more posturing by the DPRK, including more weapons launches into the Pacific Ocean; (2) joint exercises between Japan, the U.S., and South Korea; and (3) a fucking Twitter war between Pyongyang state media and Trump.
It's the third prong that's the real wildcard.
There are informal protocols in place here. Just like when the Russians violate U.S. airspace every so often and our fighters from JBER intercept them (and they tilt wings at each other to say hello, because that's actually a thing), this is the Kim regime's usual way of saying "Hello, we want food and/or fewer sanctions."
The danger isn't a nuke in the ocean or Twitter threats. The danger is Trump not understanding the complex history, including the informal protocols in play, and doing something fucking stupid.
SDCowboy
Member
There is a huge difference between precision strikes and just flattening NK. There is no overestimation there.
IdreamofHIME
Member
All I know about Guam is it's an island in the middle of nowhere with a population of about 150k...but has 2 or 3 GameStops.
vacantseas
Member
I'm right in the middle of marathon training. Hold off another two months please!
diablos991
Can’t stump the diablos
We will flatten them.
They have to know how close they are flying to the sun right now.
They have to know how close they are flying to the sun right now.
If they do that it'll be Iran. This NK stuff is just reaction.
Any Switches in stock?
MadJackChurchill
Banned
I think it's a lot more complicated than that. They won't attack Guam because the risk of regime change is too great, but regime change is not a guarantee. Going into the woods for years and firing pot shots in a country you know better than anyone else isn't exactly productive and will become costly; especially considering 6 million people are reserves with access to fire arms.
NK has no interest in a war, but from its perspective it feels backed into a corner. It tried the diplomatic route with numerous treaties, but was called a liar anyway. It tried to normalize relations with the US and SK but was kicked back by G.W. Bush.
Imperfected
Member
You going to outrun the bombs?
Complex Shadow
Cudi Lame
I doubt some Americans know where Guam is.
although anyone can manipulate google trends to prove a point
Advocatus Diaboli
Member
But the tails say they're from, what, Dyess and JBER? Or do I have that wrong?
But yeah, the next step is another TERMINAL FURY-type exercise.
I also just asked my friends if the PACAF AOC had any available deployments. That'd be cool.
MadJackChurchill
Banned
Please name a successful decapitation strike.
Raven117
Member
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/07/the-worst-problem-on-earth/528717/
Just in case some of you guys want to read up on a more scholarly approach to all this.
Just in case some of you guys want to read up on a more scholarly approach to all this.
Master Yoshi
Member
NullPointer
Member
Trump: Listen, North Korea is a very complicated issue. They threaten all the time. All the time. Believe me. But that's only because of the Obama administration's lack of leadership. He was weak. Very weak.
Regulus Tera
Romanes Eunt Domus
Accurate:
@pinboard
Big morning tomorrow for Fox and Friends, as the shows producers decide whether to lead us into nuclear war
@pinboard
Big morning tomorrow for Fox and Friends, as the shows producers decide whether to lead us into nuclear war
This should be mandatory for everyone posting some BS about military action
Probable. But I suspect he'd love a war with anyone to distract the public. His reasoning would actually probably be for ego and vanity come to think of it.
SchrodingerC
Member
I still don't believe any of this saber rattling until NK actually launches its proclaimed arsenal.
MisterR
Member
He's saying this wouldn't result in a decapitation strike. It would end up in NK being a pile of rubble and yes, that's what the outcome would be.