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[Shaanyboi]

That's damn amazing. I would say that the Switch userbase isn't so diversified at this point to where you're going to have really diverging opinions on what games look interesting or not. Most Switch owners right now know they want Zelda, they want Mario Kart, they want Splatoon 2, and some want to try ARMS, and Mario obviously being the big one coming up.

But simultaneously, a huge chunk of that userbase is more or less all-in for what Nintendo has cooked up and is dedicated to giving that stuff a shot. They're doing a really damn good job at making good-looking software and making their users want it all.

 

[TLZ]

That's ridiculously impressive. Wii had a lot more software at retail.

Switch is really moving software.

I don't think it's impressive. I think it's normal and should be expected given this console combines portable and home console sales because it's a hybrid. So it isn't really fair comparing it to past strictly home only consoles.

I'm just happy it's working out.

 

[Piscus]

Just a hunch man, the Switch looks good but unless you’re a Nintendo enthusiast I still don’t see that much reason to own one. Maybe I underestimate the size of Nintendo’s fan base? But I’m fully confident that the Switch will not sell 100m, even the PS4 probably won’t hit that nevermind the Switch. I’m not sure any console will ever do those numbers again tbh.

If Nintendo enthusiasts are what's carrying the Switch, why did the 3DS struggle for so long out the gate? Why did the Wii U flop like it did? Why didn't the Nintendo enthusiasts carry those platforms, too?

 

[Shaanyboi]

If Nintendo enthusiasts are what's carrying the Switch, why did the 3DS struggle for so long out the gate? Why did the Wii U flop like it did? Why didn't the Nintendo enthusiasts carry those platforms, too?

I mean the answer is that they didn't have the software to sell that shit. Remember Nintendo trying to sell the 3DS at launch with Steel Diver, and at that stupidly inflated price? Or Nintendoland and another fucking NSMB game with the WiiU? How long until either of those had a promising looking lineup?

 

[AdventureRacing]

I don't think it's impressive. I think it's normal and should be expected given this console combines portable and home console sales because it's a hybrid. So it isn't really fair comparing it to past strictly home only consoles.

I'm just happy it's working out.

Nowhere does it say that this data is limited to home consoles only and I'm pretty sure the source of the data specifically said that it includes handhelds. Also I'm not 100% sure but to my knowledge the wii has sold the most SW of any Nintendo console including the DS.

Can you link to your post predicting that this would happen prior to the switch launch? Your yet another person telling us how predictable and expected this success is when few seemed to expect it prior to launch. Also considering Nintendos total HW sales contracted by more than 50% with SW sales dropping by even more how is the success of the switch so expected?

 

[Lunareste]

SNES like levels again. Eh. Hope we get memorable RPGs during that era. Need more Atlus, NISA, and Falcom games. I’ve given up on SE bringing back quality RPGs to Switch other than FF and DQ

You try the demo for Octopath Traveler yet?

 

[Finn]

Ban me if the switch sells 100m, might not be using this site by then anyway... I don’t think it will sell half that

 

[Hero]

If Nintendo enthusiasts are what's carrying the Switch, why did the 3DS struggle for so long out the gate? Why did the Wii U flop like it did? Why didn't the Nintendo enthusiasts carry those platforms, too?

3DS launched at too damn high of a price with no "must-have" games at launch. Nintendo pretty much let third parties have the spotlight since they launched with Pilotwings and Steel Diver. Pretty sure Super Street Fighter 4 was the best selling game for a while.

 

[Fularu]

I see the Switch is making Doicare lose it just like the Wii and DS did (pal charts were hilarious because Nintendo only did well when "kids were on vacation" and other things like that)

 

[Champion]

It would be time to hit the panic button if it wasn't their biggest year.

Zelda
Mario Kart
Splatoon
Mario
Xenoblade

...all in the same year. Crazy.

 

[onQ123]

Ban me if the switch sells 100m, might not be using this site by then anyway... I don’t think it will sell half that

You're going to regret this bet when the Switch Mini & Switch Pro release in a few years & there is new Pokemon & Mario games coming out left & right.

 

[Fukuzatsu]

Nowhere does it say that this data is limited to home consoles only and I'm pretty sure the source of the data specifically said that it includes handhelds. Also I'm not 100% sure but to my knowledge the wii has sold the most SW of any Nintendo console including the DS.

Can you link to your post predicting that this would happen prior to the switch launch? Your yet another person telling us how predictable and expected this success is when few seemed to expect it prior to launch. Also considering Nintendos total HW sales contracted by more than 50% with SW sales dropping by even more how is the success of the switch so expected?

Isn't their point more that it may outsell Wii or DS, but is better compared to Wii+DS or WiiU+3DS (taking into account overlap) since Switch does both portable and home functions?

 

[OrbitalBeard]

Wii > Wii U transition was due to them finally beginning to develop HD games.

It was actually a combination of HD development for Wii U and the need for Nintendo's internal teams to create a steady stream of software for 3DS.

Switch is facing neither of these problems and is going to have an incredibly robust lineup because of it. The future looks very bright.

 

[mrkgoo]

If Nintendo enthusiasts are what's carrying the Switch, why did the 3DS struggle for so long out the gate? Why did the Wii U flop like it did? Why didn't the Nintendo enthusiasts carry those platforms, too?

I'm a die hard Nintendo enthusiast. It's my gaming bread and butter. I'm also very joe average when it comes to what I buy into and what becomes popular (I don't think I influence it, just that I just represent the typical situation).

I did not buy the wii U or 3DS at launch for an number of reasons (mostly my own circumstances), which did include money and titles at launch.

I have both now, but at least a year after launch. I plan on getting a switch soon.

 

[aznpxdd]

Did not bother with Wii or Wii U, now I have a Switch with 25+ games, 3 sets of joy cons and a pro controller. Nintendo is back baby.

 

[Baltic]

Did not bother with Wii or Wii U, now I have a Switch with 25+ games, 3 sets of joy cons and a pro controller. Nintendo is back baby.

That avatar hammered your comment perfectly! lmao !

 

[Hero]

It was actually a combination of HD development for Wii U and the need for Nintendo's internal teams to create a steady stream of software for 3DS.

Switch is facing neither of these problems and is going to have an incredibly robust lineup because of it. The future looks very bright.

Yeah, it was clear that Nintendo had an internal shift to make software quickly to ensure the 3DS didn't fail.

 

[MatPiscatella]

Isn't their point more that it may outsell Wii or DS, but is better compared to Wii+DS or WiiU+3DS (taking into account overlap) since Switch does both portable and home functions?

How do they know the Switch isn't on pace to sell more software dollars than those combinations in the first calendar year?

(It's also ridiculous to combine them as each launched in different years).

 

[Fukuzatsu]

How do they know the Switch isn't on pace to sell more software dollars than those combinations in the first calendar year?

(It's also ridiculous to combine them as each launched in different years).

I'm not saying they do, and I agree it's a difficult comparison, but assuming that Nintendo isn't going to be putting out a separate dedicated handheld or home machine aside from the Switch, it's an important factor to consider--how the Switch is performing alone compared to what used to be two separate lines of software.

Also, I have to imagine most GAFers talking about sales performance or "something doing better than another" are thinking in terms of units sold rather than sales dollars to begin with. Not that there's any way to have good numbers on that right now either, but still.

 

[LegendofLex]

Ban me if the switch sells 100m, might not be using this site by then anyway... I don't think it will sell half that

Most consoles don't peak until year 3-4.

Switch has sold more than 5 million units in six months, even without the benefit of any holiday seasons so far.

I can't imagine a scenario where Switch doesn't sell 50 million units.

And if Switch has a growth curve that even remotely resembles over consoles on the market (despite what people say about Wii fizzling out after the first couple years, Wii also followed a typical product life cycle curve), 100m is definitely within striking range.

 

[MatPiscatella]

I'm not saying they do, and I agree it's a difficult comparison, but assuming that Nintendo isn't going to be putting out a separate dedicated handheld or home machine aside from the Switch, it's an important factor to consider--how the Switch is performing alone compared to what used to be two separate lines of software.

Well, there should be no concern here then.

Also, I have to imagine most GAFers talking about sales performance or "something doing better than another" are thinking in terms of units sold rather than sales dollars to begin with. Not that there's any way to have good numbers on that right now either, but still.

I have very good numbers on both units and revenues. Comparing unit sales over 20+ years of history is not as good a barometer on performance as looking at actual consumer spend.

 

[clevbrowns94]

Ban me if the switch sells 100m, might not be using this site by then anyway... I don’t think it will sell half that

I think we should ban you if it crosses 50 million. With BOTW, Mario 3D, Pokémon, Doom, Skyrim, Wolfenstein, FIFA, possibly Madden and GTA 5 coming, and definitely some form of smash coming, it will only sell 50 million, or 20 million less than the 3DS. Yeah, good luck with that.

 

[LegendofLex]

I have very good numbers on both units and revenues. Comparing unit sales over 20+ years of history is not as good a barometer on performance as looking at actual consumer spend.

I think a lot of people are chiefly concerned with comparing popularity, not success in business performance terms. And that's why you see preoccupation with unit sales, since units like MAU obviously weren't as measurable for past consoles, and price variability means consumer spend doesn't always have to correlate to popularity. (Consumer spend is obviously the best barometer for actual value, of course.)

What other unit of measure would you suggest people focus on to compare relative popularity?

 

[MatPiscatella]

I think a lot of people are chiefly concerned with comparing popularity, not success in business performance terms. And that's why you see preoccupation with unit sales, since units like MAU obviously weren't as measurable for past consoles, and price variability means consumer spend doesn't always have to correlate to popularity. (Consumer spend is obviously the best barometer for actual value, of course.)

What other unit of measure would you suggest people focus on to compare relative popularity?

This is a great point, thanks for framing the question this way. I get it now.

So, both units and dollars aren't great for gauging popularity in a launch year.

Launch years are typically very supply constrained. So all a launch year's unit sales will tell you (unless things go way wrong) is how many units were manufactured in a year, not how hot demand was.

To answer your question then... erm I don't know.

I'd probably go with something like Google Trends or some other type of social media measure. Which, of course, is impossible to do historical comparisons with, especially back to the 90s.

There really is no good way to measure popularity. Which I guess explains threads with thousands of posts arguing unprovable points.

 

[Future]

I hope this thing gets support. After mario I am a bit worried about the horizon. What’s silly is that I would rebuy tons of old ports on this thing. Convenience alone warrants it

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

I love the system and the portability. The games are awesome and that combo of the three (great games on the go with a smooth, fast system) brings me back.

15 games and a few i haven't gotten around to with the holidays upon us.

Mario, that other metroidvania, la noir, doom. I'm getting to the point i may miss some because I'm getting a backlog. Mario and rabbits is on hold because steamworld dig 2 is the truth. That's a good position to be in.

 

[Ricky 7]

Remember when we all thought this thing was going to flop after the January direct? lol

 

[Hero]

I hope this thing gets support. After mario I am a bit worried about the horizon. What’s silly is that I would rebuy tons of old ports on this thing. Convenience alone warrants it

Why are you worried? This time last year all we knew about was Zelda FOR SURE with the initial Switch reveal trailer.

At the beginning of this year they showed off Super Mario Odyssey, Splatoon 2, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, Xenoblade Chronicles 2, ARMS, etc and all came out.

I'm expecting something similar next year.

 

[M-PG71C]

A healthy Nintendo makes for a healthy industry, I am happy as hell. I have bought about 25 titles (digital/retail) and nearly every major release. It has sucked up my time. I have Mario, FEW, Xenoblade 2, Skyrim, and Doom on pre-order. And I'll pick up 2K when it comes to retail. It is one kick ass little system.

 

[Terrell]

There is no significant dedicated handheld market. Hasn't been one for some time. Mobile will more than make up for any gap.

But hey, I appreciate and encourage skepticism.

Thank you for pointing out something everyone should be aware of. But some clarification on the subject would be helpful, and I had a few questions about that. Please let me know if you don't have the data or can't share it, but these are things I'd love to know.

First, is this statement to suggest that handheld-only devices are no longer a viable object to sell in North America due to dangerously decreased demand?

Second, are handhelds more often than not bought only as a companion device to a home console, or do they often get purchased as the only gaming device for a household?

And lastly, regarding the overlap of gamers who own handhelds and consoles, how much of that is brand-specific? For example, it's previously been implied that that there is a huge overlap of Nintendo console owners also being Nintendo handheld owners, and I'm curious how true that actually is, both historically and currently. I personally don't see any evidence to suggest that to be true outside of the smallest hardcore niche like GAF, so I'm hoping NPD has done market analysis on this topic you would be able to share.

Don't need hard numbers, but a better understanding of the veracity of these talking points would be great.

 

[LegendofLex]

This is a great point, thanks for framing the question this way. I get it now.

So, both units and dollars aren't great for gauging popularity in a launch year.

Launch years are typically very supply constrained. So all a launch year's unit sales will tell you (unless things go way wrong) is how many units were manufactured in a year, not how hot demand was.

To answer your question then... erm I don't know.

I'd probably go with something like Google Trends or some other type of social media measure. Which, of course, is impossible to do historical comparisons with, especially back to the 90s.

There really is no good way to measure popularity. Which I guess explains threads with thousands of posts arguing unprovable points.

Yeah, this all makes total sense to me. Thanks for responding!

I think you're probably likely to keep seeing people focus on unit sales just because they're the best available measure of "the number of people" engaging with platforms/games that can be compared across history. It's an inevitability when the kind of infrastructure we have now for measuring the number of engaged users more directly (accounts) didn't exist when commercial video games first appeared.

Yes, you're right that it doesn't tell the full picture (especially early in the life cycle when unit sales are close to identical to available supply), but maybe cumulative unit sales will actually end up being a bit more useful. *shrug*

 

[DeuceGamer]

It was actually a combination of HD development for Wii U and the need for Nintendo's internal teams to create a steady stream of software for 3DS.

Switch is facing neither of these problems and is going to have an incredibly robust lineup because of it. The future looks very bright.

I feel like these are important pieces people often overlook. On top of that it’s also seeing way more Western Third Party support and Indie support. Obviously there is still room for improvement with both Western Third Parties and even Japanese Third Parties I think most are confident announcements will be coming over the next few months.

There is no reason to think there will suddenly be droughts next year because Nintendo is essentially only focusing on one platform. With improving Third Party support there will be more games next year, though admittedly I doubt Nintendo is able to match the heavy hitters like Zelda, Mario, Mario Kart, and Splatoon 2.

 

[MatPiscatella]

First, is this statement to suggest that handheld-only devices are no longer a viable object to sell in North America due to dangerously decreased demand?

I actually wouldn't say they are no longer viable. I would say that there currently isn't a significant market for them. (And heck, maybe the Switch is just meeting all these needs and we're only talking technicalities on definitions, and a huge chunk of % spend on Switch is actually for dedicated portable gaming and maybe we're both just wasting our breath and brains. Who knows.)

The right device with the right content sold at the right price could reinvigorate that market.

However can the "right" device be made, and what would that look like? Dunno.
Would the "right" content be identified, funded, and developed? Dunno.
Could all that be done at the right price? Again, dunno.

Second, are handhelds more often than not bought only as a companion device to a home console, or do they often get purchased as the only gaming device for a household?

There is ownership overlap, certainly. And it really depends on the age group. Portables generally lean younger, consoles a bit older. And you can see multi-portable ownership per household, something that's much more rare for consoles.

So are they bought primarily as a companion device? I don't think so, but the data doesn't allow for that kind of extrapolation, and I haven't done or seen any primary research (interviews or focus groups) that gets into those motivators. There are other companies that do that type of research, however.

And lastly, regarding the overlap of gamers who own handhelds and consoles, how much of that is brand-specific? For example, it's previously been implied that that there is a huge overlap of Nintendo console owners also being Nintendo handheld owners, and I'm curious how true that actually is, both historically and currently.

Well it's a bit more complicated now that 3DS is the vast majority of the portable market. It's hard to make comparisons as there aren't also MS and Sony portables of significant market size to compare to.

3DS and Nintendo console cross-ownership is at a higher rate from what I've looked at, but I don't know if it should be defined as "huge" overlap?

 

[Herb Alpert]

Remember when we all thought this thing was going to flop after the January direct? lol

The general GAF reaction to this presentation was beyond ridiculous. I agree this was a bit underwhelming but some people here...

 

[Jaguar Victory]

Just preordered this badboy for my son today from BestBuy. It's going to be his Christmas present.

This way I'll be able to play my XBOX One X in peace.

 

[Man God]

As someone who does almost all gaming on portable systems (I considered the GBA-thru 3DS to be my primary systems each of those gens, and PSP and Vita were in the top three the last two) the Switch still caters to me. It gets the same battery life as the Vita (It's actually slightly better on games that are always online), it's only slightly bigger. It can easily be recharged by a laptop caliber battery pack. I treat it as a portable that has the bonus feature of looking even better if I dock it at home at night.

It is a hybrid, but I treat it as a handheld and I'm sure there are plenty of others who do as well. It's definitely resonated well within the portable first crowd, so in a sense it is the true followup to the 3DS. It's also gotten a lot of talk as the followup to the Vita. It's also basically the redeemed vision of the Wii U, more or less. Take out the tv stuff and the asynchronous play and make it a sexy single tablet. It's also redeemed the Nvidia Shield Tablet!

It's a compelling piece of hardware in itself, but then to add the best first six month lineup of any console ever. The buzz around this reminds one instantly of the Wii.

 

[Lexxism]

Remember when we all thought this thing was going to flop after the January direct? lol

Especially it was confirmed what's inside the machine. Switch is using Maxwell? Not even Pascal? 199.99 or DOA.

 

[blu]

Remember when a lot of posters said Switch would never get western AAA games? Good times. lol

I do.

 

[mas8705]

The joys of not only having a great system, but a damn good library to back it up. Can't wait to see that final number to see just how well the Switch did when we reach the end of the Fiscal Year. I know I'm enjoying a good number of titles right now and next month is definitely going to be special with Mario.

 

[Terrell]

I actually wouldn't say they are no longer viable. I would say that there currently isn't a significant market for them. (And heck, maybe the Switch is just meeting all these needs and we're only talking technicalities on definitions, and a huge chunk of % spend on Switch is actually for dedicated portable gaming and maybe we're both just wasting our breath and brains. Who knows.)

The right device with the right content sold at the right price could reinvigorate that market.

However can the "right" device be made, and what would that look like? Dunno.
Would the "right" content be identified, funded, and developed? Dunno.
Could all that be done at the right price? Again, dunno.



There is ownership overlap, certainly. And it really depends on the age group. Portables generally lean younger, consoles a bit older. And you can see multi-portable ownership per household, something that's much more rare for consoles.

So are they bought primarily as a companion device? I don't think so, but the data doesn't allow for that kind of extrapolation, and I haven't done or seen any primary research (interviews or focus groups) that gets into those motivators. There are other companies that do that type of research, however.



Well it's a bit more complicated now that 3DS is the vast majority of the portable market. It's hard to make comparisons as there aren't also MS and Sony portables of significant market size to compare to.

3DS and Nintendo console cross-ownership is at a higher rate from what I've looked at, but I don't know if it should be defined as "huge" overlap?

Thanks for the response.

There's been a lot of talk about how Nintendo has combined their hardware market for Switch, but I was always of the understanding that one SKU can't address every market segment in the dedicated video game device market with Switch, so I think you're right about it being impossible to really know based on where we currently stand. I imagine that if a more "handheld-esque" SKU for Switch (for want of a better descriptor) ever comes down the pipe, it will answer the question of where handhelds fit in the North American market a lot better when we see how such a device would sell, especially with a pre-established library.

It would be cool to see that kind of market research done on handheld/console ownership overlap, and I'm sure that research is being done, if not by a company like NPD. The hardware makers themselves have likely done extensive research on the subject, especially in relation to brand loyalty between the 2 product types, but they have no incentive to make that information public, so it may be a mystery until someone puts in the time.

As to that last subject, I had hoped that between the data obtained for GBA, DS, 3DS and their console counterparts of each time period, there might be some data to suggest the amount of overlap in brand historically. Or even looking at the PSP and Vita, despite being low sellers, what kind of overlap there is by brand there, as well. But I can understand that might be a data point that isn't of a primary importance to NPD and isn't thoroughly researched and understood.
At least it's good to know that such brand-based overlap is likely to be (at least on GAF) frequently over-estimated and over-stated (I've seen it stated that as much as half or more of Nintendo console owners likely own one of their handhelds), so I got something out of asking.

 

[Malakai]

I will never understand the hate Nintendo receive on the internet. It is like posters are in a competition to see can throw the best shade at Nintendo or something. The shit talking ad nauseam; talking about whether Nintendo should go third party the last few years; handhelds are dead only due to mobile (despite the fact third parties efforts on the 3DS have been extremely poor, the pricing strategy being horrible etc). I hope you haters are getting paid for all the disdain and vitriol you posters spread. I'm so sick of it.

 

[Neoxon]

This is fantastic news for Nintendo.

As for the 100 million Switches sold thing, it'd be awesome, but I doubt it. Assuming that the Switch maintains its current selling-rate, it could top off at 3DS numbers (which would definitely be great). I'd love to be wrong, though.

 

[LegendofLex]

This is fantastic news for Nintendo.

As for the 100 million Switches sold thing, it'd be awesome, but I doubt it. Assuming that the Switch maintains its current selling-rate, it could top off at 3DS numbers (which would definitely be great). I'd love to be wrong, though.

At Switch's "current selling rate," factoring in generational curves, Switch would handily outsell 3DS. It's already close to 10% ahead just based on supply-constrained sales.

 

[Ninferno]

That's not saying much because there's no SW for Switch owners to choose fro... wait what?

 

[mazillion]

Yeah I've been spending a lot on Switch games too. Lots of games I would have been on the fence about I bought purely because the portability adds so much appeal to me.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Just preordered this badboy for my son today from BestBuy. It's going to be his Christmas present.

This way I'll be able to play my XBOX One X in peace.

Looks like your son has better taste in gaming than you.

 

[brinstar]

The general GAF reaction to this presentation was beyond ridiculous. I agree this was a bit underwhelming but some people here...

I felt like I had entered another dimension when I came to the board after watching it. The show itself was weirdly presented, but they announced a new Mario, No More Heroes, Xenoblade and freakin' Shin Megami Tensei right off the bat, I was in heaven lol

 

[R00bot]

Switch is the best console I've owned since the GBA SP. Really happy with it overall.

 

[DeuceGamer]

This is fantastic news for Nintendo.

As for the 100 million Switches sold thing, it'd be awesome, but I doubt it. Assuming that the Switch maintains its current selling-rate, it could top off at 3DS numbers (which would definitely be great). I'd love to be wrong, though.

I think 100 million is possible if Nintendo can continue pumping out software like they are. I also expect they will be able to aggressively lower the price in a year or two if/when sales start to slow.

You also have to figure that they are trying to push into China, which could be a huge market for them. China loves mobile so the Switch may be the console with the upper hand in that market. Obviously, 100 million is no gimme but if Nintendo continues to play their cards right it’s definitely within reach, depending on the length of this gen for them.

 

[Gaiaknight]

I cant wait till Pokemon hits the switch next couple years are gonna be fantastic.