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NPD Analyst: Switch US retail SW on pace to be biggest Nintendo launch year on record
To interject - I'd say it does, but not much longer than that and I don't think that will come from new product. The 3DS at this point is in the mass market window where Nintendo has historically been great at turning profitability. Hardware revisions and MSRP reductions keep new people on the fringes of the market coming in, then the software library is broad enough and priced right to compel those new customers relatively quickly catching up to somewhere close to life of system tie ratios (probably 3-6 software units per new device sold).
The biggest argument for the 3DS in 2018 is that I think the Switch will still be supply constrained enough to prevent any kind of MSRP drop. That's the 3DS' competition, a Switch priced low enough (<$200 MSRP) to make it the default choice for kids. The Switch is likely only one price cut away, but until it lands the 3DS will fade but not fall off the radar.
KillerMan91
Member
Generally people are too fixated on unit sales. In terms of unit sales Sony will not top PS2 or even PS3 gens (when you include portable hardware). In terms of revenue generated and profit made Sony will top both of those gens. Gaming division already had record revenue and profit last FY and are forecasting both to go up this FY. PS4 alone is generating more revenue and profit for Sony than PS2 or PS3/PSP even if unit sales are down (especially compared to PS3+PSP). Nintendo of course has so high bar (especially in terms of profit) that they most likely wont top DS/Wii gen in either category this gen. Well maybe if their mobile efforts succeed in big way in addition to Switch.
MatPiscatella
Member
And there isn't even a single argument that can be had around 4K with it. I mean, that has to be a bit of a relief.
Yeah I think it's not surprisng that Bethesda is doing two FPS games for the Switch.
Filthy Casual
Member
Ban me if the switch sells 100m, might not be using this site by then anyway... I dont think it will sell half that
ArkhamFantasy
Member
Its going to crush 50 million dude lol
Bookmarked
Jaded Alyx
Member
lol you must be nuts.
People keep saying this, but where's the source of this info? And what happened with the Dreamcast?
LordOcidax
Member
Ok. 😂😂😂
Filthy Casual
Member
Hype is going to die off you heard it here first Good luck to them though...
Good luck to them though...ArkhamFantasy
Member
Hype is going to die off you heard it here first
As the price comes down, new skus come out, the heavy hitters like Pokemon and Animal Crossing come bundled, then the sales slow down?
Steve Youngblood
Member
Wow. Really going out on a limb there aren't you?
LordOcidax
Member
Also Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Mario, Zelda, Splatoon... LolHype is going to die off you heard it here first
100 million lifetime sales is a lot.
But it's also completely doable for a successful console with a lot of hype. We already have one console this generation that's projected to likely reach 100 million. Last generation, we had the Wii clear 100 million and the PS3 and Xbox 360 both were only around 20 million away.
It only gets really iffy when you start making predictions for a crazy phenomenon level success like the DS or PS2.
But it's also completely doable for a successful console with a lot of hype. We already have one console this generation that's projected to likely reach 100 million. Last generation, we had the Wii clear 100 million and the PS3 and Xbox 360 both were only around 20 million away.
It only gets really iffy when you start making predictions for a crazy phenomenon level success like the DS or PS2.
PrinnyBomb
Member
I still haven't given up hope in a TWEWY sequel
ultrazilla
Gold Member
Absolutely no excuses for third parties to ignore or make excuses to not support the system imo.
The Switch is an incredible system.
The Switch is an incredible system.
fluffydelusions
Member
Also Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Mario, Zelda, Splatoon... Lol
Metroid Prime don't forget
Metroid games aren't typically big sellers. Hardcore fan base, but a relatively small one. Not close to Pokemon, Zelda, Mario, or animal crossing levels. It's more akin to Pikmin
Also Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Mario, Zelda, Splatoon... Lol
Yeah, the fact the Switch is selling as good (or maybe better) than the 3DS before than the price drop of the latter and without Pokémon and Animal Crossing is telling us than, at least, it willl sell very well. It will be difficult, but I can see to the Switch hit the 80-100 millions in 4-5 years.
Skittzo0413
Member
Well the price drop of the 3DS happened already (launch aligned) and it's very possible that the Switch is still outselling it worldwide. It's only about 120k back in Japan too.
Very excited to hear Nintendo's official numbers next month.
Considering their first-year lineup, that's not surprising. By the end of the year they'll have released new titles in both of their classic flagship single-player franchises, as well as Mario Kart and their newest huge franchise in Splatoon. Those 4 alone would account for a huge volume of the sales.
chrisPjelly
Member
Also without Mario, Pokémon, Smash, Animal Crossing, any significant 1st party support (the new Bethesda stuff aside), etc. Congrats to Nintendo, I'd never thought that it'd be doing as well as it is.
I don't expect third parties with massive games to jump on until they can get cheaper cards, cheap 32 gb card and perhaps cheaper 64gb cards.
Jim_Cacher
Member
I wouldn't use historical data to predict if it will sell well. In this age of Internet, the casuals / people not generally following Nintendo can easily notice the buzz generated by the announcement of Metroid Prime 4. I definitely think that many people are intrigued to find out more, hardcore fans or not.
Twig and Berries
Member
This wouldn't be so annoying if people who made these kinds of claims were capable of introspection when they turn out to be wrong but I've never, ever seen that happen.Hype is going to die off you heard it here first
At best, we'll get a half hearted "I was wrong, so what."
Thats why Switch is doing well. We were so starving for something good on Nintendo platforms.
I wont be feeling totally satisfied though until I see RDR2 or something big like that on it.
LordOcidax
Member
This. I think that Metroid Prime 4 is going to be a hit. Not a MK or Smash level, but something like Splatoon, especially in Europe and America market.
Just not a lot of good ones
its still pretty thin from my point of view with Rabbids and Zelda being the two standouts. Everything else Ive thought about or bought has been pretty mehZedLeppelin006
Banned
If nintendo keeps up with the strategy of releasing a major first party every month or so with indies peppered throughout and more 3rd parties start releasing games, I can't possibly see how the Switch doesn't sell over 50 million.
I'm very happy to see Nintendo being successful again im any case.
I'm very happy to see Nintendo being successful again im any case.
Jon Carter
Member
Just not a lot of good ones
No love for ARMS and Splatoon 2?
Switch is a money-sink for me. Nintendo's best stuff, timeless classics such as BotW and Mario Odyssey, plus totally unique games on the market like Arms + Splatoon 2, plus the best platform for indies = probably the best console on Earth quite soon.
Vita + Wii + Wii U + DS + 3DS + Indie PC = Switch in a nutshell.
Vita + Wii + Wii U + DS + 3DS + Indie PC = Switch in a nutshell.
Twig and Berries
Member
People have a hard time seeing beyond their own tastes when it comes to video games...
Not75Drops
Member
I feel like people who make posts like this are the same ones that were caught with their pants down after saying that the system would completely bomb and are still upset about being wrong. I mean, I wouldn't really blame anyone for being pessimistic after the conference, but we're far beyond this now.Hype is going to die off you heard it here first
Like, they don't even give any actual reasons 99% of the time. Like that one guy who keeps doubling down even after getting called out for their wildly incorrect prediction after the Switch conference. Even got mad when the latest NPD thread didn't mention North America in the title because the Switch was the best-selling system last month.
Square2015
Member
NPD was tracking video games in the 80s. There are news reports that mention NPD sales data back in 1988 (NES data).
Video games were tracked as toys before '95 I believe (TRST?). How can we get ahold of those original toy sales reports?
MatPiscatella
Member
This is a good question. I'll be at the home office in a couple weeks. I'll ask and see what I can find out.
SinCityAssassin
Member
The plot thickens.
And so have I.
And so have I.
For economic statistics.
If the game is a looker and the marketing is up to the task (They did an ok job with Samus Returns) then it might get enough hype. Over the years the prime series has cemented it's status as a phenomenal game series, all the videos on youtube going nuts over the announcement aren't something that a game without any hype gets.
Obliterator
Member
Way too early to know if Switch hits a 100m or not. Those sort of sales take years and years of consistently great sales. The PS4 still isn't even there yet (but it 100% will)
But 50m+ seems all but guaranteed at this point. To not hit those numbers demand would have to just evaporate after the first 2 years
But 50m+ seems all but guaranteed at this point. To not hit those numbers demand would have to just evaporate after the first 2 years
Filthy Casual
Member
Just a hunch man, the Switch looks good but unless youre a Nintendo enthusiast I still dont see that much reason to own one. Maybe I underestimate the size of Nintendos fan base? But Im fully confident that the Switch will not sell 100m, even the PS4 probably wont hit that nevermind the Switch. Im not sure any console will ever do those numbers again tbh.
Obliterator
Member
PS4 is 100% locked in to hit 100 million. It will hit that number in Q3 / Q4 2019 imo
Sorry, but now i can't take you seriously anymore after reading that. Nintendo Switch hitting 100m is a possibility if, and only if Nintendo doesn't butcher its support half way through its lifetime like with the Wii (which tbh, could have done a lot higher).
Wii > Wii U transition was due to them finally beginning to develop HD games.
The Wii U was killed early so Switch could be successful. No reason for them to not support a system that is a massive success before its first holiday.