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November 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 8th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Crimson_Gold
Member
Back to $350 until uncharted 4 is released. That's when it'll drop to $299 permanently
Yea starting Sunday and for the next two weeks Sony is about to see the ps4 console sales surge. MS may not respond with a price cut people
panda-zebra
Member
With no pack-in, it's possible.
Nightengale
Member
NDC bundle discontinued, 299 w/no games in Feb/March is my guess.
Continue with 349 new game bundles throughout the rest of the year.
Continue with 349 new game bundles throughout the rest of the year.
Chobel
Member
Yep.
CosmicQueso
Member
Wrong...MAU is the real GOTY.
People are so ignorant in gaming, most people still haven't discovered MAU yet.
Even ARPU is better than Sales by a country mile.
People are so ignorant in gaming, most people still haven't discovered MAU yet.
Even ARPU is better than Sales by a country mile.
Crimson_Gold
Member
Cosmic, what have they done to you? You were once a proud poster. You gave insight and dropped hard numbers. You've fallen in with the riff raff. Gaston has beaten you into submission. Don't let MAU win.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Like others said, I think Sony will announce a standalone PS4 for $299 for most of the year. I think we will see an Uncharted 4 bundle for $349 in March next year. As for your spoilered question, I have no idea.
Doesn't seem like anyone thinks they'll be dropping 500 BG bundled SKUs to $299. Some in another thread were saying "they'll officially drop the price to $299 with an announcement at PSX." Seems pretty unlikely to me but I guess it's possible.
Ok so here's another question:
If the price for the PS4 does return to $350 will the sales see a significant fall off like we witnessed with the XB1 with a similar discount deal last year?
Ok so here's another question:
If the price for the PS4 does return to $350 will the sales see a significant fall off like we witnessed with the XB1 with a similar discount deal last year?
Yes, I believe so. Consumers aren't just gonna keep buying a product when its price is raised back to the pre-discount price. I hope Sony is smart enough to keep the price at $299 or at least offer a standalone PS4 at $299.
CosmicQueso
Member
It likely will anyways. This much promotional pricing and offers will pull some demand forward that would naturally come later. You add a price increase and the drop will be steeper. But separating what's seasonality vs pulled forward demand via promotion vs price increase sensitivity is impossible.
Define "healthy".
Did a good number of PS4 & Xone console HW sell based driven by promotion? Yes. Did at least 3 titles sell significant, and perhaps even franchise high, volume? Yes. Tough to say if it's all truly "healthy" yet (assuming "health" means "growth") because you still have PS3 and X360 declines along with a number of big SW releases that appear to be selling in very low numbers. Did the PS4 & Xone adoption offset declines in those other areas? Very hard to say. So, maybe. Maybe not.
It's odd that it's taking Microsoft longer than usual to react to what Sony's doing. $299.99 vs $349.99 isn't a significant pricing difference, but mentally, $299.99 seems like it's much less than $349.99. It's not good for the Xbox One to be perceived as costing a lot more than the PS4 -- especially during the holiday season.
The Black Friday PR from Microsoft is interesting. Clearly they did well, but it's still unknown if they outperformed the PS4. I would imagine that internally, it would be pretty disheartening if they failed to outsell the PS4 during 'the only months that matter' to them.
In any event, I think Microsoft have much bigger concerns for 2016 and beyond, so focusing too much on 2015 performance won't benefit them in the long term. Globally, the Xbox One isn't in a comfortable position. If the NX launches next year and is a competent machine that is affordable, then the NX will become the preferred secondary console. That would effectively kill the Xbox brand in Europe, making the Xbox Two a much much more difficult sell.
The Black Friday PR from Microsoft is interesting. Clearly they did well, but it's still unknown if they outperformed the PS4. I would imagine that internally, it would be pretty disheartening if they failed to outsell the PS4 during 'the only months that matter' to them.
In any event, I think Microsoft have much bigger concerns for 2016 and beyond, so focusing too much on 2015 performance won't benefit them in the long term. Globally, the Xbox One isn't in a comfortable position. If the NX launches next year and is a competent machine that is affordable, then the NX will become the preferred secondary console. That would effectively kill the Xbox brand in Europe, making the Xbox Two a much much more difficult sell.
Kenzodielocke
Banned
So console market in the US was very healthy in november, right?
DriftingSpirit
Member
Surely.
It only works if it is for a very limited time. You can't have that be the price for more than two weeks than bring it back up in January. That is part of the reason why I think it will stay at $299.
Agreed.
Highly doubt this will happen. Nintendo hasn't been relevant when it comes to core third party games and online play for more than a decade. The NX isn't going to impact the Xbox brand to that level in my opinion.
_______________
Definitely seems like it.
It's pretty safe to say that the 299$ price cut for two weeks that Sony has announced was a surprise for everyone including Microsoft.
I think they will do promotions with gift cards and/or a free game during the week the Star Wars movie is released and during Christmas week.
I think they will do promotions with gift cards and/or a free game during the week the Star Wars movie is released and during Christmas week.
presagetogood
Member
MS needs to drop the price to something like $279, and include a free game, if they want to dominate for December. They already practically do this with the various free gift cards promotions; this way would just be more visible. Market it at $279 + free game and actually have the national and I'm store marketing read those clearly would be effective.
If ps4 eventually returns to $349, there won't be a remarkable falloff effect for sales. It may happen for one out two months there will be some measurable decline, but it will be because black Friday contributor to pull ahead some buyers, and buyers who could purchase will want to wait it out a bit for sales until they can wait no longer. Ps4 has reached that embedded sense where it's a product that people will turn to and has a pretty established demand curve, in America. Xb1 also has that in the US and UK [seen as also ran in most other parts], but it's to a lesser extent than PlayStation. They seem to have buyers motivated by slightly different impulses, but Xbox has to work a little harder to gain the customer, as they've been doing. Ps4 is just embedded as a go to choice, so putting back the price at $349 would do much. Not sure how it would look if Xbox dropped to $299 for good against ps4 higher price, but I imagine it wouldn't be much different from $349/399 for both systems. Although $299 may reflect some more mainstream point for the off months of the year.
If ps4 eventually returns to $349, there won't be a remarkable falloff effect for sales. It may happen for one out two months there will be some measurable decline, but it will be because black Friday contributor to pull ahead some buyers, and buyers who could purchase will want to wait it out a bit for sales until they can wait no longer. Ps4 has reached that embedded sense where it's a product that people will turn to and has a pretty established demand curve, in America. Xb1 also has that in the US and UK [seen as also ran in most other parts], but it's to a lesser extent than PlayStation. They seem to have buyers motivated by slightly different impulses, but Xbox has to work a little harder to gain the customer, as they've been doing. Ps4 is just embedded as a go to choice, so putting back the price at $349 would do much. Not sure how it would look if Xbox dropped to $299 for good against ps4 higher price, but I imagine it wouldn't be much different from $349/399 for both systems. Although $299 may reflect some more mainstream point for the off months of the year.
Nightengale
Member
While it's true that MS puts a strong focus on holiday seasons, that preseason stuff is really just Aaron Greenberg bullshit.
3rdamention
Member
It's true! These ads are created weeks ahead of time. There was definitely a plan in place!
DriftingSpirit
Member
You can only chop into your profits but so much. They did it last year but they have to recover by keeping things more steady this year. If they are outsold, so be it.
Of course, this does mean they will almost assuredly fail to overtake Sony in the US now. The gap will widen over the holidays and 2016 speaks for itself.
Of course, this does mean they will almost assuredly fail to overtake Sony in the US now. The gap will widen over the holidays and 2016 speaks for itself.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Which enforces Sony staying at $299 imo.
Sony had no qualms being very conservative last holiday. Why the sudden shift to being very aggressive? It seems like they were building up to this over the year. They have far more room to decrease price since they went that extra year at the $399 price point. Now they can drop to $299 with more stability.
See what I did?
Sorry for double.
The three should compound each other thigh and, you would think, would lead to a much steeper sales decline as a result of all three factors taking effect. This is why I'm not 100% sure that Sony will raise the price back up without offering at least some sort of $299 purchase option. I doubt they want to encourage a steeper sales decline than they would already be facing otherwise given the factors in play.
CosmicQueso
Member
Agreed... why I said that it'd be permanent in some way. The new price point is set as the baseline in consumer's minds now.
Definitely. The 100 price drop is a big sticking point for a lot of people. It's a compelling value proposition. I think raising the price again will make the value proposition seem significantly less compelling to the consumer.
I do wonder if they are still profitable at the $299 price point or if they are taking a bit of a hit. Knowing whether or not they are still making a profit @ $299 would certainly help. To bad we don't really have anyway of knowing either way.
Every year is a new year with different goals and priorities. Just because something happened last year it needs to happen this year as well?
Last year they didn't have the margins on the hardware to cut the price and preserve profitability.
This year they can be more aggressive.
Same thing but backwards for Microsoft, last year they needed to save the system and they made huge deals, this year the strategy is to give priority to their profits even if they'll get outsold (although at least in the US they're carefully controlling the ground they're losing making ad hoc deals).
Btw the Sony December deal is just a way to benefit indirectly from the Star Wars movie hype wave. It's a brilliant move but it's totally motivated by a specific event so there is no particular reason to believe that the price won't go back to 349$.
Also right now we're seeing that even with a promotion announced PS4 is number one on Amazon at 349$. You might think that after being at 299$ last week and knowing that it will be again at 299$ starting sunday sales would collpase...instead?
Of course just to be clear, it's obvious that PS4 at some point next year will be 299$ with a Slim model as well but I'd be surprised if the price drops to 299$ before Uncharted 4 is released.
madstarr12
Member
Wonder if MS will react to PS4's being $299 in some places. Maybe they'll just work on making a better value for $349.
Nope, doomed.
/s
Maybe
slavesnyder
Member
PS4 will stay at 299. Maybe without game.
I think they want to go for the huge install base now, preparing the field for VR.
I think they want to go for the huge install base now, preparing the field for VR.
... if I saw it coming (I thought it would be for 1 week though), don't you think MS saw it coming too?
2 options imo:
Either MS is planning to do their own extra promo (which may or may not imply $299. Probably will), but is waiting until right next to that promo period to announce it, to reduce the "me too" appearance and maximize the announce to availability (and risk less impacting their immediate sales).
Or
They are unwilling to sacrifice margins further, which would tend to hint that they have less of a blank check for Xbox within MS as they did last year.
Imo it's option 1 (announce later today), but we'll see.
Cow Goes Moo
Member
having a temporary pricecut last only for a month or so to only raise it back in slower months would be pretty short sighted, i think it would be in sony's best interest to maintain the momentum of ps4 especially with vr headsets coming
it is possible that it was a short sighted move, but I can't imagine sony would just throw that out there with their somewhat consistent management regarding the ps4
it is possible that it was a short sighted move, but I can't imagine sony would just throw that out there with their somewhat consistent management regarding the ps4
I don't really see them supporting games released only on steam. And unless they have a good plan for GFWL like service in the future (that takes off) I can't see games unification happening. I'm just confused how they intend to bring the Windows eco system into the mix.
They could have just allowed with PC and no PS4. As far as I'm aware they're not doing that either.
Demon Lords. Too many Demon Lords.
Well, it is when you selling a more powerful console at lower price.
My opinion is that they have already scheduled their rounds of gift cards and deals for the month with different retailers and they'll stick to that.
I think we'll see an extra game for free during the Star Wars movie week and then they'll try to sell lots of consoles during Christmas week with gift cards at many retailers.
I don't think they'll respond with a formal price cut to 299$ though, they'll stick to their strategy, they need to prove to the company that they can make money at some point.
slavesnyder
Member
I would not bet on this if I were you.
Windows runs on all devices. Accounts run on all devices. Games and apps are just logical next steps.
Bitch Pudding
Member
They'll do what MS did: Go back to 349, just because they said so. Then they'll sacrifice January to go back to 299 no later than February, pushing Uncharted 4 Preorders at the same time.
And of course MS will follow right away. They just can't compete with a higher price.
Anyone who works in retail saw it coming, Best Buy was holding back their Battlefront bundles black friday weekend (huge numbers in distribution centers very few in-stores). It was planned for sure
Hm, interesting. So Sony decided to withhold stock on BF (by some accounts PS4 was out of stock during the latter parts of the weekend) to have plenty of stock for this promotion.
Which begs the question with MS/XB1... if they didn't stock up for a huge push after BF weekend, then that could be a reason that they're not dropping the price yet. They may not have the stock necessary to survive a 2 week long $299 price point like Sony planned out.
Bolivar687
Banned
Sneaky!
Man-is-Obsolete
Member
Also the weekly ads are negotiated at times months in advance and have to be submitted to printers at least a few weeks ahead of the effective date. Sooooo yea, Sony planned this $299 drop for some time. I wonder if the week of back at full price was a strategic maneuver to give a greater sense of savings.
I think something that is lost in all of this is that MS just can't stuff the channels, Retailers negotiate how many units they want to buy. So at this point I think retailers are well aware of which way the wind is blowing and are much more likely to buy a ton of BF PS4 bundles and not so much on a gears collection bundle or a more expensive Halo bundle.
HanzSnubSnub
Member
[3DS] 400,000
[PS4] 1,150,000
[WIU] 340,000
[XB1] 1,050,000
[PS4] 1,150,000
[WIU] 340,000
[XB1] 1,050,000
Yeah my local bestbuy had less than 20 SW bundles on display while having well over 100 NDC bundles.
slavesnyder
Member
So deals after Black Friday are actually better than on BF?
Amazing.
Amazing.
I think (someone correct me?) the Amazon hourlies are moving averages with a decay rate, not a per-hour calculation by itself.
This would mean that super-high, but concentrated sales hang at the top for a longer period of time even after they fall some.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Which would mean the UC bundle sold an absurdly high amount of units throughout Black Friday weekend.
Sure, but did Sony really need to be this aggressive? $50 off for more than two weeks in December? I do not think so. What if they raise the price and sales plummet? It would nullify the original $50 cut to $350.Every year is a new year with different goals and priorities. Just because something happened last year it needs to happen this year as well?
Last year they didn't have the margins on the hardware to cut the price and preserve profitability.
This year they can be more aggressive.
I think Sony is aware of this and intend to maintain $299. They are ready for it after having gone nearly two years without a cut.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Double.
And also helps explain why it is actually sitting at 18th in the monthlies, below the Battlefront bundle.
I don't see how the hourlies can be separate estimates. Only a moving average with pretty slow decay makes sense.