ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
ABC poll among just black voters:
Hillary: 89
Jill Stein: 3
Gary Johnson: 2
Trump: 2
Hillary: 89
Jill Stein: 3
Gary Johnson: 2
Trump: 2
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting
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He. Stein's in second. Good for her.
It would be infuriating if the GOP potential Johnson voters are falling in line with Trump while the hardcore Bros stay with him because of drug legalization.
Shambalakan
Member
Guys, is there any countdown timer for debate?
Just Google search Doomsday counter. That is all you need for when Trump blows Clinton out of the water at the debate.
Only because he will get nothing but softballs as the entire debate will focus on Clinton's e-mails, and Trump deflecting so hard he'll take out half the audience.
I thought Jill Hew was the protest vote because Bernie made her the most powerful woman in American politics?
Shambalakan
Member
lol! I've never seen any US debate in my life, but this one is really different with Trump and things like this. :|
eBay Huckster
Member
means a polling season that's already full of bizarre wonky bullshit just got even more bizarrely wonky bullshit
nope, it's Gary Johnson and Harambe
He already knows.
BlastProcessing
Member
Fear just means you're paying attention. It's what you do with it that matters.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Same. This uneasy feeling they fate never wanted Hillary to be president.
User 463088
Banned
Trump spiking in USC again. Gained 9 points among African American voters in a single day. Because, of course. That's how all this works.
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
People were declaring Romney president-elect 6 weeks out in 2012 too. It was called "diablosing" even back then.
Honestly watching people go in mere weeks from predicting historic landslides to diablosing is pretty entertaining.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Hillary's campaign is nowhere near as good as Obama's.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Seems perfectly in line with the polarization of our country. Hillary's ground game needs to be on point on election day and get everyone to the polls, because republican voters will be there en masse.
That said...
If this is happening in a week, either polling in this country is now much harder to do, or something is incredibly wrong with the methodology.
nature boy
Member
Polling volatility, folks.
Don't buy such a shift in two weeks.
So La Hillary has a 9 point advantage with white college graduates and is tied/barely ahead? GTFO.
Don't buy such a shift in two weeks.
So La Hillary has a 9 point advantage with white college graduates and is tied/barely ahead? GTFO.
Based on what? On a ground game level, it's using the same methods.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Just look at overall campaign strategy.
No Spanish language ads yet.
Disappearing from the campaign trail for fund raising.
Lackluster small donor fundraising
Lackluster cable surrogate appearances
David Brock is running something for her which has sucked till now.
shinra-bansho
Member
Did Obama somehow not hold high dollar fundraising. The large cheques just magically rolled in? When was the first Spanish language ad run - who is monitoring Univision and Telemundo and whatever for her first one? Will we pop champagne?
Some of those are not ground game. And some simply down to Obama being Obama.
Cesare was pretty confident in the ground game operation.
Is this like therapy to some of you people
See above
Yeah something isn't adding up. Unless maybe those bombings scared people into submitting to the daddy party. Which I doubt.
Ohhh yeah.
cartoon_soldier
Member
It's unfortunate but that's just how it is
That is from the ABC/WaPo polls though, including the most recent one they released, so take it with a grain of salt.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
cartoon_soldier
Member
Romney won that vote by 30 points. Clinton would need to bring that margin down a little bit, around 45 would do.
Holy shit
HOLY SHITTTTTTTTT
The realité is that this vote is going to be more concentrated in states she won't win anyway, like Iowa or the south. She needs a larger % of college educated voters to seal away Colorado.
The risk is Nevada where the streets are flowing with "non-college" white people. I do think ground game is actually important in not toooo many places, but Nevada is one of them.
nature boy
Member
Post the rest, y'all.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Post the rest, y'all.
Trump getting 80% of non trump primary voters while Clinton getting 74% has a big effect on the gap too. If Clinton can get that to 85% it would be game over.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Which makes Nevada's polling results all the more sensible.
nature boy
Member
She's up 2 in H2H. 44-42.
This weekend has been a case-study in polling volatility and noise hasn't it?
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Yep. Almost nothing happened this week to cause these swings. This election is, sadly, very much up in the air.
The one concern, though, is that multiple,polls are showing this swing at the exact same time. That is unusual if nothing is causing the swings.
Shambalakan
Member
Why do persons like Johnson and Stein participate in election? Serious question.
gutter_trash
Banned
flash in the pan, it probably boosted Trump temporarily but it will fizzle out of after the debates
You spent the past few days scared shitless though, don't be mean
nature boy
Member
.
cooljeanius
Member
I had a dream last night that I was on a train ride back to college, and that Nate Cohn was actually someone I knew from it, so I was explaining to him how you guys in PoliGAF like to compare him with Nate Silver... it's weird, because after being awake, I don't even know what he looks like...
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