• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

September 2013 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes October 14

D

donny2112

Member
What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Monday, October 14th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: September 1-October 5 (5 weeks, August was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: Thursday, October 17th @ 4 p.m. EDT (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Format:
Note: PSV will only be counted for unit results and cardinal order bonus. PSV is not included for point results.

[360]
[3DS]
[PS3]
[PSV]
[WIU]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code: 
Good              Bad
[360] 200K        [360] 200 thousand
[360] 200,000     [360] 200.000
[360] 200000      [360] - 200000


Potential hardware impacting events in August:
2-D 3DS (i.e. 2DS) announced for Oct. 12 at $129 - August 28 (35 days)
GTAV PS3 bundle at $269 - September 17 - (19 days)
Wii U price cut to $299 on Sept. 20+Wind Waker bundle - September 20 (16 days)
Pokemon-themed 3DSXLs at $199 - September 27 (9 days)

August's Results - thanks to various angles

donny2112 said:
So going with ...

3DS: > 130K
360: 96K
PS3: 71K
Wii: 32.4K
Wii U: 30.5K
PSV: 29K
Click to expand...

August 2012 NPD thread
September 2012 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
V

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
[360] 132K
[3DS] 165k
[PS3] 111k
[PSV] 25k
[WIU] 85k*

*Wii U price-cut + WWHD Bundle must have had some impact

Edit: Forgot PS3 bundle
 
M

Mory Dunz

Member
First one ever. The Wii U bundle seems interesting so why not.

[3DS] 150k
[360] 140k
[PS3] 100k
[WIU] 70k
[Wii] 32k
[PSV] 30k

EDIT:
Forgot about GTA...
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Clearly, Grand Theft Auto V is going to be the absolute dominating software release this month. PS3 / 360 software sales will skyrocket accordingly. The question is whether the PS3 GTA V bundle moved any units.

I think it will end up moving around 28K, so I'll adjust PS3 up from the norm.

PS3 - 110,000 (-45% YOY)

Normally I'd go with a ~13% blanket increase because it's September, but the 360 has been especially weak with only typical multiplatform releases (FIFA, NHL, GTA) to sustain it. I'm tapering my expectations in lieu of the impending console releases, but still adjusting for a GTA V bump. So, 360 will be only 7% up from the average.

360 - 128,000 (-53% YOY)

Since there was no major releases of note last month I'm not optimistic about the 3DS's chances to push retail, especially when 2DS will be arriving in October. I'm tracking below the unadjusted average with this one.

3DS - 147,000 (-40% YOY)

With Vita and Wii U, I've learned not to be optimistic. Nintendo / Sony can prove me wrong by consecutively overwhelming my expectations. Until then, I don't expect the bundle will have moved many units at all with the Wii U.

Wii U - 45,000

I don't think Killzone: Mercenary did very much for Vita sales either.

Vita - 40,000


In proper counting order:

[360] 128K
[3DS] 147K
[PS3] 110K
[PSV] 40K
[WIU] 45K
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
Forgot about the GTA bundle.
vinnygambini said:
*Wii U price-cut + WWHD Bundle must have had some impact
Click to expand...
People are probably already factoring in the change in SKUs.

August daily sales rate was about 1.1 units/day.
Assuming a similar sales rate for the first 19 days of tracking, ignoring that sales may dampen due to the SKU announcements, you get 21K.

Taking your 85K - 21K = 64K. Which would be a daily rate of 4K/day or a roughly 260% increase.
 
V

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
shinra-bansho said:
Forgot about the GTA bundle.People are probably already factoring in the change in SKUs.

August daily sales rate was about 1.1 units/day.
Assuming a similar sales rate for the first 19 days of tracking, ignoring that sales may dampen due to the SKU announcements, you get 21K.

Taking your 85K - 21K = 64K. Which would be a daily rate of 4K/day or a roughly 260% increase.
Click to expand...

I'm optimistic :) Maybe it will follow the same trajectory increase as the 3DS. Might be asking for too much though lol :p

''Nintendo sold more than 235,000 Nintendo 3DS™ portable entertainment systems in the United States in August 2011. According to the NPD Group, which tracks video game sales in the United States, about 185,000 units were sold following a price reduction on Aug. 12, an increase of more than 260 percent during the comparable 19-day time period in July.''

On a side note, I know it's a big increase but I genuinely believe that the WWHD bundle coupled with the price-cut will have a positive impact and might actually double or triple August NPD data. I guess we will have to see and wait.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
vinnygambini said:
I'm optimistic :) Maybe it will follow the same trajectory increase as the 3DS. Might be asking for too much though lol :p

''Nintendo sold more than 235,000 Nintendo 3DS™ portable entertainment systems in the United States in August 2011. According to the NPD Group, which tracks video game sales in the United States, about 185,000 units were sold following a price reduction on Aug. 12, an increase of more than 260 percent during the comparable 19-day time period in July.''

On a side note, I know it's a big increase but I genuinely believe that the WWHD bundle coupled with the price-cut will have a positive impact and might actually double or triple August NPD data. I guess we will have to see and wait.
Click to expand...

The only time we've seen those numbers post-launch (85K / 5 weeks) was during the February 2013 reporting season, where the Wii U managed ~16,500 units weekly.

We're now in a situation where the weekly average for the past three months has been ~7,800, about 47% of where it was in February. From February to now, the Wii U has deteriorated quite a bit...its retail presence continues to shrink across the country and its third-party support base seems to have retreated.

The 3DS price cut (August 2011 vs. July 2011) resulted in a monthly 161% increase when taking the 4 week period into account. Keep in mind that this was a baseline, drastic $250 to $170 price cut. That's $80 shaved off the entry price into the 3DS ecosystem. Meanwhile, the Wii U price cut was more of a re-shuffling of SKUs (got rid of one, and made the other its price).

Will the consumer really care enough about the entry-level $300 price to buy a Wii U? They could have very easily done it when the Wii U Basic SKU was still around. Why would they do it now? It's a better value proposition, sure, but the diminished retail presence and questionable third-party support cushions that impact. Combine that with the fact that it's only a $50 greater value...it doesn't have the same psychological impact as the 3DS cut did, especially because it's not lowering the entry-level price to purchase the console.

You also have to watch that $399 price point from Sony very carefully. It's at a level where people will draw comparisons between the two. They won't see the Wii U as the "insanely cheap" console, but rather, the PS4 as the "not that much more expensive" console, which often leads people away from the cheaper choice.

That's why I really wish Nintendo went the extra mile in reducing the Wii U's price to $249---now that's a price that's more marketable. It's also why I don't see the console having much of an impact. I wish you the best of luck in your optimism.
 
D

Deleted member 125677

Unconfirmed Member
[360] 120k
[3DS] 130k
[PS3] 100k
[PSV] 28k
[WIU] 45k
 
R

Road

Member
GTAV (360, PS3) - 10 million

I wish we still could do software predictions. I think I only did a few of them.

Also, I don't know if you know, donny2112, but Vita TV is not releasing in the US Nov. 14. But then again, Vita sells so low that even if 8 people hold on a purchase because of it, we'll already see a difference.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Unadjusted, the PS3's monthly average this reporting period would be 89K.

Are all the people who are predicting 95K for PS3 not expecting much from the GTA V PS3 bundle at all?

Or do you think that monthly depreciation will be so great that the bundle's offset will keep the total similar to last month?
 
D

DaBoss

Member
I don't think the bundle will do much. It's so late in the life, games like TLOU didn't do anything at all for the PS3.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
DaBoss said:
I don't think the bundle will do much. It's so late in the life, games like TLOU didn't do anything at all for the PS3.
Click to expand...

Normally I would agree, but this is GTA V we're talking about...a worldwide sales phenomenon that broke all kinds of records.

And, the PS3 is the only console to receive a bundle. Personally I think it's going to move an extra 28K because of this, but that's just me.

However, I have a tendency to over-estimate PS3 sales, so I may be off on this.
 
K

kswiston

Member
Hmm. Tougher to predict this month with price drops, GTAV, and announced successor models.

Wii U Premium has been offered for $299 a ton of times by various retailer over the past 4-6 months. I am not very optimistic about the effect of it's price cut. Like the Vita last month, we will probably see a small boost, though some of that boost will be negated by lower sales in early Sept. GTAV is the sort of game that would normally push systems, but not 7-8 years into the generation. At best, the bundles will just supplant regular SKU sales. I have been burnt on my HD twins predictions in previous months, so I am going to go on the low side of the 5 week adjustment factor. Finally, I think that the 3DS will be down from last month on a week to week basis as some people wait for the cheaper 2DS and/or Pokemon X/Y.

EDIT: Bumped PS3 up a tad.

[360] 120k
[3DS] 145k
[PS3] 100k
[PSV] 35k
[WIU] 45k
 
G

GulAtiCa

Member
[360] 95K
[3DS] 125k
[PS3] 80k
[PSV] 35k
[WIU] 55k

I expect and hope the Wii U to do better. I noticed several Wii U units being sold since Wind Waker bundle being on shelves. Obviosuly, that's anecdotal evidence, but still.

I noticed the 3DS got those two Pokemon 3DS's, but not sure how they are doing. It really looks like they made a huge amount of them, cause I see them in huge stacks at every game related place. I guess those will start to sell more on the 12th or so.
 
D

DaBoss

Member
Aquamarine said:
Normally I would agree, but this is GTA V we're talking about...a worldwide sales phenomenon that broke all kinds of records.

And, the PS3 is the only console to receive a bundle. Personally I think it's going to move an extra 28K because of this, but that's just me.

However, I have a tendency to over-estimate PS3 sales, so I may be off on this.
Click to expand...

I feel any GTA fan would have already gotten a PS3 or 360 and have gotten GTA IV.
 
D

DaBoss

Member
metalslimer said:
There are kids who have never played a GTA
Click to expand...

aca6330705.gif


That GIF still hurts me on the inside still.
 
M

Matt_

World's #1 One Direction Fan: Everyone else in the room can see it, everyone else but you~~~
I'm surprised that GTAV wasn't listed as a potential Hardware impacting event. You don't sell that much in such a short period of time without shifting a huge amount of hardware with it.
 
J

jakncoke

Banned
Matt_ said:
I'm surprised that GTAV wasn't listed as a potential Hardware impacting event. You don't sell that much in such a short period of time without shifting a huge amount of hardware with it.
Click to expand...

GTA4 sold a lot and im pretty sure both PS3/360 had a month over month drop
 
D

DaBoss

Member
You're right.

March 2008
PlayStation 3 257K
Xbox 360 262K

April 2008 (GTA4 released)
PlayStation 3 187.1K
Xbox 360 188.0K

It also sold 2.85 million combined.

Now I'm even more confused.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
It's probably worth noting that April is a 4-week month, to March's 5 weeks - even though it doesn't change that they were both still down on a weekly basis as well.
 
Z

zeroOman

Member
[360] 0K
[3DS] 0K
[PS3] 105m
[PSV] 40m
[WIU] -00K
-----
for real now

[360] 95K
[3DS] 60K
[PS3] 105K
[PSV] 20K
[WIU] 25K
 
D

donny2112

Member
Road said:
Also, I don't know if you know, donny2112, but Vita TV is not releasing in the US Nov. 14.
Click to expand...

Ah. Will take that out, then. Didn't include the new version in Japan for that same reason. Thanks!

Aquamarine said:
Or do you think that monthly depreciation will be so great that the bundle's offset will keep the total similar to last month?
Click to expand...

Early gen bundles = chance for good change (e.g. MGS4 bundle with last BC PS3)
Late gen bundles don't seem to do that much in comparison, I think. Guess we'll see either way.

Edit:
With the U.K. results showing that it did have an impact, will go ahead and add it into the OP, then. Maybe it'd also be due to it effectively making the 500 GB PS3 $210?

GulAtiCa said:
I noticed the 3DS got those two Pokemon 3DS's,
Click to expand...

Oh, forgot those were releasing before the game. Will add that into the OP, then. Thanks!
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
DaBoss said:
You're right.

March 2008
PlayStation 3 257K
Xbox 360 262K

April 2008 (GTA4 released)
PlayStation 3 187.1K
Xbox 360 188.0K

It also sold 2.85 million combined.

Now I'm even more confused.
Click to expand...

March 2008 was a 5-week reporting month with Easter holiday.

Weekly sales:

PS3 - 51.4K a week
360 - 52.4K a week

April 2008 was a 4-week reporting month.
GTA IV was released late in the reporting period (only five days of tracking), so its hardware sales effect wasn't very noticeable

Weekly sales:

PS3 - 46.8K a week
360 - 47K a week
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Circana (NPD) Hardware Sales for 2022 - NSW 5830k | PS5 5660k | XBS 4480k
Sales-Age 2 3 4 5
230
11K
Woopah replied
Circana (NPD) September 2023: #1 Starfield #2 Mortal Kombat 1 #3 EA FC24; PS5 #1 Units + Revenue, XBS #2 Units + Revenue
Sales-Age 7 8 9 10 11
526
31K
Thick Thighs Save Lives replied
Circana (NPD) October 2023: #1 Spider-Man 2 #2 Super Mario Wonder #3 AC Mirage; PS5 #1 Units + Revenue, NSW #2 Units, XBS #2 Revenue
Sales-Age 3 4 5 6 7
307
21K
Unknown? replied
  • Poll
SONY/SIE: The Balance Of Chasing Margins, Multiplat Expansion, And Maximizing The Console
Opinion Business Analysis 2 3
101
7K
vaibhavpisal replied
As Microsoft and Sony target PC and mobile to grow their audiences, what does that mean for the future of the console? - GIBiz Opinion By Chris Dring
Opinion Astroturfing 2 3
139
7K
Topher replied
Top Bottom