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September 2013 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes October 14

K

KillerTravis

Banned
Guevara said:
So I'm guessing the most interesting figure this month is to see if the Wii U pricecut/WW made a difference?
Click to expand...

There are some interesting things this month I'd like to know.

-Wii U sales due to pricecut+bundle
-Killzone Mercenary sales (the biggest Vita game in about a year)
-Vita sales due to the above game
-3DS sales due to Pokemon limited edition XL
-Rayman Legends :(
-Kingdom Hearts HD Remix (curious to see the interest of a console KH after so much time)
-Wonderful 101

I think 360 sales will be higher this month than 3DS because there was nothing new on it besides the special edition XL.
 
H

Hiltz

Member
So the price cut, WW HD Deluxe console bundle and eShop release of WW HD only accounts for 16 days out of 35 that the NPD covers for this month. I hope the sales turn out to be at least 70k units. Not seeing Wonderful 101 on the chart is going to make me feel sad.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Guevara said:
Wow, that should be terrifying to Nintendo (assuming it is true).
Click to expand...

Well, Creamsugar never lies, but he didn't actually say that the WWHD bundle flopped. He made a standalone post in the Media Create thread yesterday that stated "Wii U is dead dead." Some people think that he posted "dead" twice because he's referring to the state of the console in its two primary markets (Japan and the USA).

Then, some make the connection that because he stated it now, he must have gotten access to NPD data early, and the WWHD bundle must have flopped really hard. But that's definitely reaching. It could very well have just been an innocuous comment.

We'll know for sure within the next few hours...NPD data will get released in the next few minutes (it will take a while for PR to digest and report on the numbers, though).
 
L

Lexxism

Member
Aquamarine said:
Remember, this reporting period is a 5-week month (compared to last reporting period's 4-week month), so in order for a platform to do "better" than last time, they have to beat the following numbers:
Click to expand...

Damn. I forgot this. Looks like I'm screwed :lol
 
G

GulAtiCa

Member
I forgot today was NPD day. I look forward to never actually getting numbers. lol..

But seriously, should be exciting and kinda sad at same time.
 
P

PhoenixDawn

Member
I don't expect the Wii U to have done very well at all. No one in their right mind was buying it before the price cut went into effect and even then I can't see the Zelda bundles flying off of the shelves at a much faster rate than the console had already been selling pre price cut announcement.
 
H

Hiltz

Member
I guess Ganondorf isn't the only one drowning with Hyrule if the sales estimates are as bad as their being made out to be. :(
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
michaelius said:
Only one month more like this and after that next gen begins :D
Click to expand...

The second to last month of current-gen NPD...oh wow, you're right!

I wonder when NPD will stop bothering to track the PS2---it's incredible that the 8th-gen is nearly in full swing and NPD still tracks sales of a 6th-gen console.


PhoenixDawn said:
I don't expect the Wii U to have done very well at all. No one in their right mind was buying it before the price cut went into effect and even then I can't see the Zelda bundles flying off of the shelves at a much faster rate than the console had already been selling pre price cut announcement.
Click to expand...

Nobody really does...the average NeoGAF prediction for Wii U is only 52K when (adjusted) the console sold at a rate of 39K last month.

Personally I'm even more pessimistic than that. I think we'll see a phenomenon where the Wii U bundle eats into the normal baseline that would have bought a Wii U regardless instead of raising the bar significantly above the norm.

But I'm very open to being pleasantly surprised this month! It would be really nice if we could get some good news about the Wii U this time around. :)
 
Bruno MB

Bruno MB

Member
Tired of over-predicting both HD systems (especially PS3), this time I've been very conservative. I'm curious to see if Grand Theft Auto V provided a noticeable bump in hardware sales (hopefully not for my interests xD)

Regarding Wii U sales, if it can't even sell over 50.000 units then the console is deader than dead. As with PS Vita we will have to exclude it for points results.
 
P

Psycho_Mantis

Banned
Bruno MB said:
Tired of over-predicting both HD systems (especially PS3), this time I've been very conservative. I'm curious to see if Grand Theft Auto V provided a noticeable bump in hardware sales (hopefully not for my interests xD)

Regarding Wii U if it can't even sell 50.000 units then the console is deader than dead. As with PS Vita we will have to exclude it for points result.
Click to expand...

50k is a very low barrier for a price cut. This is supposed to be the WiiU's turn around holiday, yet 50k is way below PS3's lowest months when it was at 599.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
M.I.S. said:
Nintendo never did make any announcements regarding numbers [which they normally do if sell though figures are positive] did they?

Well except, that 685% increase from Nintendo UK. :eek:)
Click to expand...

This month Nintendo hasn't said anything about USA sales. They usually wait for NPD data to come out and then comment on NPD figures. Although, back in the DS / Wii golden days they sometimes actually commented on DS / Wii sales before NPD data was released, using their in-house SIRAS retail tracking databases.

Depending on where Creamsugar works, it is possible to get NPD data early, though. For example, let's suppose Creamsugar was actually a Nintendo employee. Nintendo can get NPD data as early they desire...after all, NPD makes a business out of tracking their products.
 
B

BlackJace

Member
Aquamarine said:
The second to last month of current-gen NPD...oh wow, you're right!

I wonder when NPD will stop bothering to track the PS2---it's incredible that the 8th-gen is nearly in full swing and NPD still tracks sales of a 6th-gen console.




Nobody really does...the average NeoGAF prediction for Wii U is only 52K when (adjusted) the console sold at a rate of 39K last month.

Personally I'm even more pessimistic than that. I think we'll see a phenomenon where the Wii U bundle eats into the normal baseline that would have bought a Wii U regardless instead of raising the bar significantly above the norm.

But I'm very open to being pleasantly surprised this month! It would be really nice if we could get some good news about the Wii U this time around. :)
Click to expand...

I hope we see a pleasant surprise as well. I'm really worried about employee morale. Sure, the company as a whole is fine, but it can't be all sunshine and roses over at their dev offices, specifically for Wii U projects.
 
prag16

prag16

Banned
Aquamarine said:
Well, Creamsugar never lies, but he didn't actually say that the WWHD bundle flopped. He made a standalone post in the Media Create thread yesterday that stated "Wii U is dead dead." Some people think that he posted "dead" twice because he's referring to the state of the console in its two primary markets (Japan and the USA).

Then, some make the connection that because he stated it now, he must have gotten access to NPD data early, and the WWHD bundle must have flopped really hard. But that's definitely reaching. It could very well have just been an innocuous comment.
Click to expand...

I saw that comment, and then many people subsequently lost their shit.

The way I interpreted it is that "dead dead" means it's an unqualified "dead" in Japan, rather than "almost dead" or "mostly dead" or "probably dead". "Dead dead" to mean dead once for US and dead again for Japan would be an odd way to express that. But who knows. Creamsugar has odd ways to express things pretty much as a rule.

(Though the continued slide in Japan wasn't a shock. I could be wrong, but they've had no price drops or new bundles yet, correct? And Zelda is always way bigger in the west than in Japan.)
 
B

B.O.O.M

Member
eh I feel like everyone is being way too harsh on the wiiu predictions..I mean this is the one that includes the price cut effect yeah? Surely there's a nice bump..at least 60-70k?

PS: I'm pretty sure Creamsugar just meant Japan in his comment yesterday. People were just jumping to conclusions
 
prag16

prag16

Banned
BlackJace said:
I hope we see a pleasant surprise as well. I'm really worried about employee morale. Sure, the company as a whole is fine, but it can't be all sunshine and roses over at their dev offices, specifically for Wii U projects.
Click to expand...

Eh, speaking from experience (having been in a climate of constant impending layoffs) it can be a LOT worse than merely having a product that sells below expectations. Not a single person has been laid off yet and the company is still (at least almost) profitable.

I'm sure things could be better, but I don't see it as something negatively affecting the quality of the products at this point.
 
V

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Looking forward to September's NPD data and the inevitable Wii U thread following it.

Furthermore, I hope Nintendo and Ubisoft share their respective numbers for Wind Waker HD and Rayman Legends.
 
B

BlackJace

Member
prag16 said:
Eh, speaking from experience (having been in a climate of constant impending layoffs) it can be a LOT worse than merely having a product that sells below expectations. Not a single person has been laid off yet and the company is still (at least almost) profitable.

I'm sure things could be better, but I don't see it as something negatively affecting the quality of the products at this point.
Click to expand...

Very true. Believe it or not, things could be worse.
 
L

Lumyst

Member
When Iwata mentions a steady stream of first party titles to build momentum for the WiiU, does that mean that the hope was that successively over the months the addition of games to the library would cause the number of people who purchase WiiU's to increase each month, rather than flatline? Of course, when these games were greenlighted, it's not like they meant for each title to end up having the Hurculean task of being a system seller on its own. Rather I'd think that the system's hardware concept was intended to be what was appealing and then that would drive sales of games. So I wouldn't think it was ever intended that, say, Pikmin 3 was supposed to mark a turnaround, or Wind Waker HD was supposed to mark a turnaround, but those games were intended to sell to an already well-sized userbase. If they say the issue is to show off the gamepad, then there's Wii Party U coming up so that is what I would look at to see if the Wii U's hardware features can excite the expanded audience, which would be needed in order for any kind of turnaround to happen (I know, we think it'll bomb). If that game, with its intended casual appeal and use of the gamepad, fails to do that, then I wouldn't expect anything except trends to continue as they are because that would mean the gamepad concept is not going to be the thing that sells the WiiU, it will be traditonal Nintendo games and people already know what to expect regarding those. Oh, and the gamepad will just be a neat little thing to use for traditonal gamers who already were on board to buy Nintendo hardware with or without a "gimmick", rather than a device that excites an expanded audience to buy a Nintendo game console.
 
I

Into

Member
It has to be above 60k, for 3 good reasons: 5 weeks instead of usual 4, price cut and Wind Waker.

Sure WW did nothing in Japan but the franchise is more popular in NA.
 
m.i.s.

m.i.s.

Banned
B.O.O.M said:
eh I feel like everyone is being way too harsh on the wiiu predictions..I mean this is the one that includes the price cut effect yeah? Surely there's a nice bump..at least 60-70k?

PS: I'm pretty sure Creamsugar just meant Japan in his comment yesterday. People were just jumping to conclusions
Click to expand...

Price cut was Sep 20 in USA so it's 16 days of Sep NPD reporting for the price cut itself [Sep 1 - Oct 5, 5 week repoting period].

But, you can't expect much from a HD remake of a 10 year old game and just a $50 price cut almost a year after launch.
 
Bruno MB

Bruno MB

Member
List of notable releases during the NPD Group's September 2013 reporting period:

2013.09.03

[PS3] Diablo III (Activision Blizzard)
[360] Diablo III (Activision Blizzard)

[PS3] Rayman Legends (Ubisoft)
[360] Rayman Legends (Ubisoft)
[WIU] Rayman Legends (Ubisoft)
[PSV] Rayman Legends (Ubisoft)

2013.09.10

[PS3] Kingdom Hearts HD 1.5 ReMIX (Square Enix)

[PS3] NHL 14 (Electronic Arts)
[360] NHL 14 (Electronic Arts)

[PS3] Puppeteer (Sony Computer Entertainment)

[PSV] Killzone: Mercenary (Sony Computer Entertainment)

2013.09.15

[WIU] The Wonderful 101 (Nintendo)

2013.09.17

[PS3] Grand Theft Auto V (Take-Two Interactive)
[360] Grand Theft Auto V (Take-Two Interactive)

2013.09.24

[PS3] FIFA Soccer 14 (Electronic Arts)
[360] FIFA Soccer 14 (Electronic Arts)
[PSV] FIFA Soccer 14 (Electronic Arts)
[3DS] FIFA Soccer 14 (Electronic Arts)
[PS2] FIFA Soccer 14 (Electronic Arts)
[PSP] FIFA Soccer 14 (Electronic Arts)

[PS3] Pro Evolution Soccer 2014 (Konami)
[360] Pro Evolution Soccer 2014 (Konami)

2013.10.01

[PS3] NBA 2K14 (Take-Two Interactive)
[360] NBA 2K14 (Take-Two Interactive)

[3DS] Etrian Odyssey: Millennium Girl (Atlus)

2013.10.04

[WIU] The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker (Nintendo)
 
B

B.O.O.M

Member
M.I.S. said:
Price cut was Sep 20 in USA so it's 16 days of Sep NPD reporting for the price cut itself [Sep 1 - Oct 5, 5 week repoting period].

But, you can't expect much from a HD remake of a 10 year old game and just a $50 price cut almost a year after launch.
Click to expand...

Yeah but I'm not expecting a huge deal. Just around 20-30k more than the usual. That's not unreasonable right?
 
L

Lumyst

Member
Bruno MB said:
List of notable releases during the NPD Group's September 2013 reporting period:
2013.10.01

[PS3] NBA 2K14 (Take-Two Interactive)
[360] NBA 2K14 (Take-Two Interactive)

[3DS] Etrian Odyssey: Millennium Girl (Atlus)
[3DS] RUNE FACTORY 4!!!!!!!!!
Click to expand...

Fixed. (Well, I mean, maybe the qulifier of being a notable release puts you in the right to exclude it...I have no idea how big the fanbase is though so I'm interested in seeing how many of use there are out there, it's at least one person greater than before.)
 
R

Road

Member
It seems it's one of those months were overall sales are above our expectations.

At least most of us do badly in the predictions together. =P

200% increase = 3x.

3x 30k = 90k.

Maybe Wii U is over 100k.

Where's that PS3 pole vault gif?
 
Q

Quentyn

Member
Nintendo PR is out

NINTENDO 3DS REPEATS AT NO. 1, WII U RESPONDS FOLLOWING PRICE CUT

Oct. 17, 2013

Nintendo enters the critical holiday selling season with strong momentum, as Nintendo 3DS finished as the best-selling video game system in the U.S. for the fifth consecutive month and Wii U enjoyed new momentum following a price cut.

On Oct. 15, Nintendo revealed that Pokémon X and Pokémon Y, which launched globally on Oct. 12, combined to sell more than 4 million units worldwide during its first two days on the market. A full breakdown of U.S. sales for the games, as well as the new Nintendo 2DS handheld, which launched on the same day, will be included in next month's NPD report. In addition to the latest Pokémon adventure, Nintendo 3DS fans have two exciting games on the horizon, both launching on Nov. 22: The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds and Mario Party: Island Tour.

On Sept. 20, Nintendo reduced the price of the Wii U Deluxe Set by $50 to a suggested retail price of $299.99 and introduced a limited-edition bundle that features a download code for a digital copy of The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker HD. Sales of Wii U hardware in September increased by more than 200 percent over sales in August, and that is with only 15 days of data being reported at the new price. Over the next few weeks and months, Wii U fans can look forward to playing Wii Party U (Oct. 25), Wii Fit U (Nintendo eShop, Nov. 1) Mario & Sonic at the Sochi 2014 Olympic Winter Games (Nov. 15) and Super Mario 3D World (Nov. 22).
Click to expand...

http://press.nintendo.com/articles.jsp?id=40757
 
Bruno MB

Bruno MB

Member
Lumyst said:
Fixed. (Well, I mean, maybe the qulifier of being a notable release puts you in the right to exclude it...I have no idea how big the fanbase is though so I'm interested in seeing how many of use there are out there, it's at least one person greater than before.)
Click to expand...

I said notable but I basically included all new releases. Regarding Rune Factory 4 I forgot to add it to the list.
 
B

BlackJace

Member
Wii U to win next gen, flawless victory. PS4 and xbone had no chance.

That's still pretty shitty, but it's a start.
 
Bruno MB

Bruno MB

Member
Road said:
It seems it's one of those months were overall sales are above our expectations.

At least most of us do badly in the predictions together. =P

200% increase = 3x.

3x 30k = 90k.

Maybe Wii U is over 100k.

Where's that PS3 pole vault gif?
Click to expand...

Hopefully we will at least get the 10 extra points for correct hardware rankings xD

Edit: not even that? what a total disaster :(
 
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